Market Commentary [03.30.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields try to stabilize. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.40%. Investors are watching bond spreads closely after the 5-year and 30-year rates inverted at the start of the week. That inversion quickly faded Tuesday, becoming flat. The Russia-Ukraine war has been driving already rising inflation higher, which investors are concerned could weigh on economic growth. In addition to monitoring developments in this geopolitical crisis, economic data updates also remain front and center for investors. ADP released its March employment change report showing 455,000 new jobs added in March, slightly below February levels. The fourth-quarter reading of U.S. gross domestic product is set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET as well. Mortgage rates are holding steady this morning.
Market Commentary [03.29.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to test new highs and find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.451%. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index recently reported national home-price gains of 19.2% for January 2021, far outpacing even red-hot inflation numbers. Rising rates continue to put pressure on affordability against the backdrop of higher prices. Higher mortgage rates have already started to affect sales in the first months of the year. Pending home sales, which measure signed contracts on existing homes, have now fallen for four straight months. There are still several hot areas though with Phoenix, Tampa and Miami seeing the biggest annual price percentage gains at 32.6%, 30.8% and 28.1% respectively. Consumer confidence, job openings and quits along with a couple of scheduled Fed speakers round out the releases for Today.
Market Commentary [03.28.2022]
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.457%. The 5 and 30-year treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2006 this morning. An inverted yield curve is usually indicative of a recessionary period. Typically, investors watch the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yield which has remained positive. Some believe that with the Fed set to hike into restrictive territory, that the curve could continue to invert. The Russian-Ukraine war has added concern over the potential for economic slowdown. Some are also pointing to stagflation as a concern due to rising inflation amidst potential economic slowdown. There are a good number of economic releases this week ranging from an updated house price index to ADP employment and initial jobless claims and the Unemployment Report. U.S. trade in goods shrunk slightly to 106.6 billion in February, the second-widest gap ever. Increases in consumer goods, foods and feeds, and industrial supplies such as oil fueled exports by 1.2%, narrowing the gap. Shipments of motor vehicles slumped during the month as well. Mortgage rates continue to rise as yields move upward, with the 30 year fixed rate hitting 4.5% and higher in some cases.
Market Commentary [03.25.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields re-test recent highs. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.361%. UMich consumer sentiment will be released this morning at 10am ET along with Pending Home Sales. Four Fed Presidents are scheduled to speak at various venues from 10am -Noon ET as well. Mortgage rates have risen dramatically over the past few weeks. According to Freddie Mac’s most recent rate survey 3/24/22, the average 30 Year Fxd rate is 4.42%, while the average 15 Year Fxd is 3.63%. Rates have moved over 130 bps higher since the last week of December.
Market Commentary [03.24.2022]
Bond pricing continues to plummet as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.379%. Initial jobless claims came in at 187,000, the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims came in at 1.35 million. Inflation and interest rate hikes remain high on the list for investors as Powell struck an even more hawkish tone in a speech Monday where he said the central bank could be more aggressive with its rate hikes. Treasury yields have surged with the 10 Year reaching 2.41% on Wednesday. There is newfound urgency to return to neutral as the Fed continues its approach. Tomorrow will bring pending home sales along with Umich consumer sentiment and 5-year inflation expectations. The Fed is also busy with multiple speaking arrangements for many of the presidents across the country Today and Tomorrow.
Market Commentary [03.23.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to run higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.386% after hitting a multi-year high of 2.41% this morning. The 10 year yield has surged since Powell offered hawkish remarks when discussing how the central bank would combat inflation at a speaking engagement. Powell is scheduled for another engagement this morning to discuss emerging challenges for central bank governors in a digital world, at the Bank for International Settlements Innovation Summit 2022. New Home sales is due out at 10am ET. Economists are expecting a reading of 805,000. January showed 801,000, which was a decline from 839,000 in December.
Market Commentary [03.22.2022]
Bond pricing worsened dramatically yesterday as treasury yields ran higher on Powell’s comments. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.361%, a level not seen since May of 2019. Powell reiterated that “inflation is much too high” in his speech for the National Association for Business Economics Yesterday. Powell also emphasized that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control, stressing that future hikes could get more aggressive than forecasted. There are no economic releases Today, but three Fed Presidents have scheduled speaking engagements which could add to the volatility. New home sales is due out Tomorrow and has been holding somewhat steady in recent months. The most recent data on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the number of applications for loans used to purchase homes is down more than 8% compared to a year ago. Comparatively, demand for refinancing has dropped nearly 50% versus last year. The recent rise in mortgage rates has increased the average home payment by more than $400, upwards of roughly 27-28% in just the last year. When coupled with broader inflationary concerns, this leads some to believe that the housing market could be faced with a potential downshift in activity that could trigger a decline in home prices. Look for mortgage rates to move higher this morning with yesterday’s rapid move higher in treasury yields.
Market Commentary [03.21.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.194% as focus remains on the Russia-Ukraine war. President Zelenskyy warned that if peace talks fail, it will mean the start of a global war. Fed Chairman Powell is set to discuss the outlook at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Economic Policy Conference at 12pm ET Today. Investors will be listening in closely for more indications on the Fed’s policy plans. There are no major economic releases Today. The latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey from 3/17 shows mortgage rates on the rise with the average 30 Year Fxd at 4.16% and the average 15 Year Fxd at 3.39%.
Market Commentary [03.18.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.158%. Focus has shifted back to geopolitical events after the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Yields dipped slightly this morning as talks of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continued. Biden is scheduled to speak with China Today regarding their involvement in the war and competition between the U.S. and China. Today brings light news to close out the week with existing home sales and leading economic indicators due out at 10am ET, followed by Fed President Tom Barkin of Richmond speaking on the economy. Economists are expecting a slight dip to 6.13 million homes sold with existing home sales as rates have risen and affordability has become a factor for many. Rates are holding steady with the 30 Yr Fxd averaging near 4.16% now according to Freddie Mac’s Rate survey from 3/17/22.
Market Commentary [03.17.2022]
Bond pricing is improved as treasury yields give up ground this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.158% after reaching highs near 2.24% yesterday amidst the Fed announcement to hike rates. The Fed settled on a 25 bps rate hike, its first hike since 2018. The Fed also penciled in six more hikes in 2022 in addition to reducing the balance sheet by $9 trillion. FOMC members also increased their inflation expectations, revising personal consumption upward to 4.1% growth. Initial jobless claims came in at 214,000, slightly better than the 220,000 expected. Continuing claims were 1.419 million vs 1.48 million expected. Claims are at their lowest levels of 2022 and marks the seventh consecutive week below 250,000. Look for added margin in rate sheets due to volatility. Even though yields have declined post announcement, we’ve created new higher levels not seen in some time. Mortgage rates will likely follow suit with limitations to the downside as volatility continues.
Market Commentary [03.16.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.171%. Investors will be watching closely Today as the Fed wraps their 2 day meeting and announces what some believe will be a 25 basis point rate hike. Powell could announce an aggressive stance when it comes to additional hikes to curb spiking inflation. Even still, some think the current economic outlook is uncertain so the Fed could get trapped amidst its plan to hike rates as many as 5 or 6 times this year. The Russia Ukraine war and isolated global pandemic shutdowns are still plaguing supply chains, creating disruptions that could cause the economy to slow. Retail sales slowed in February after surging a month earlier. Overall retail purchases increased by 0.3%, slightly below expectations. As the Fed looks on, its apparent that consumer spending behavior has likely adjusted given soaring gasoline prices amongst other cost pressures. Mortgage rates are holding steady this morning with the 30 year Fxd having reached 4% or more in most rate sheets.
Market Commentary [03.15.2022]
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.089%. Treasury yields ran higher Monday to new highs not seen since May 2019. Yields rose ahead of the Fed’s 2 day policy meeting where the central bank is expected to raise rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point from zero. The Fed is also expected to share its updated forecasts on inflation and the economy as the meeting wraps on Tuesday. The producer price index rose 0.8% from January to February showing continued inflationary pressure remains. Wholesale inflation rose 10% year over year to February. Energy prices were up 33.8% and food prices have moved 13.7% higher year over year. Surging gas, food and housing costs have fueled consumer prices by as much as 7.9% from a year earlier in February. This is the sharpest spike seen since 1982. Mortgage rates continue to move higher as well with the 30 Year Fxd moving across the psychological 4% mark, reducing refinance opportunities and weighing on an over-priced real estate market that has some buyers thinking twice.
Market Commentary [03.14.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields run higher. The U.E. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.096%, the highest level seen since July of 2019. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting begins Tuesday with investors expecting at minimum a 25 basis point rate hike announcement Wednesday. Investors are pointing to global slow down, expecting the U.S. to potentially cut its economic growth forecast down toward 2%. Stagflation continues to be a major concern as inflation continues to run hot as well. There are no major economic releases Today, however Wednesday through Friday are full with retail sales, FOMC announcement, jobless claims, housing starts, and existing home sales just to name a few. Mortgage rates continue to rise with the 30 year fxd hitting 4.00% as the market continues to digest geopolitical and economic volatility. Check out the repetitive “taper tantrum” as mortgage rates have reacted to Fed tapering in 2013 as well as this year.
Market Commentary [03.11.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move toward recent highs. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently at 2.007%, moving just about the 2% psychological threshold for many traders. Russia and Ukraine remain deadlocked after failed cease-fire talks Yesterday. Investors continue to find safe havens amidst the geopolitical volatility mixed with concerns over inflation. The consumer price index rose 7.9% year over year in February, its highest level since 1982, and higher than economists’ expectations at 7.8%. The continued war is putting additional pressure on oil supply which has caused additional price inflation. The Fed finds themselves in a precarious position trying to prevent stagflation as they weigh out monetary policy moves. According to Freddie Mac’s latest rate survey, 30 Year Fxd rates are averaging close to 3.85% with 15 Year Fxd rates averaging 3.09%. Rates have moved 80 bps+ higher since the start of January.
Market Commentary [03.10.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields creep back toward recent highs. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.951%. Investors will be looking over inflation data, given concerns around the recent spike in commodity prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. Investors are concerned that higher commodity prices could drive overall inflation higher and stifle economic growth, known as stagflation. February’s consumer price index is due out at 8:30am EST, with economists expecting a month over month rise of 0.7% and year over year spike to 7.8%. Initial jobless claims is also due out this morning with economists expecting a relatively flat reading of 216,000. Mortgage rates are continuing to move higher with the rise in treasury yields.
Market Commentary [03.09.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to move higher on inflation fears. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.91%. An import ban on Russian oil will cut roughly 8% of America’s annual supply with recent political moves to rely more on foreign imports. Investors have increasingly become concerned about the inflationary pressures stemming from the ban, which could increase the chances of stagflation. Job opening and quits will be released Today at 10am EST, with economists expecting 11 million job openings. Mortgage rates have been on the rise in recent days as yields push higher and the 10 Year gets close to 2% again. The average 30 Year Fixed has been fluctuating between 3.75% and 4.00% over the past few weeks due to inflation concerns and geopolitical events.
Market Commentary [03.08.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields rise on inflation concerns. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.846%. Fears that an import ban on Russian oil could cause inflationary pressures to send yields higher. Supply disruption has been a concern with Russia invading Ukraine and sanctions being levied. U.S. Crude futures hit a 13 year high of $130 Sunday. Some are concerned about stagflation as well, where the economy slows but inflation continues to move higher. The nation’s trade deficit climbed 9.4% in January to a record $89.7 billion as the U.S. bought more foreign oil, autos, and other goods. The U.S. posted the highest trade deficit ever last year as recovery came faster than other countries, surging foreign imports over U.S. made exports. Mortgage rates are moving higher this morning as MBS pricing decays.
Market Commentary [03.07.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.794%. Investors are focused on the Russia-Ukraine war and rising oil prices. Moscow claimed a halt to attacks on the four main Ukrainian cities to allow evacuation of civilians. The U.S. is considering banning Russian oil and natural gas imports in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. Oil future prices for West Texas Intermediate crude reached their highest point since 2008, topping $130 a barrel Sunday evening. Some are worried that banning Russian oil and gas could lead to stagflation, leading many to be honed in on upcoming inflation releases due out Thursday. Consumer Credit will be released later Today at 3pm EST. Investors are expecting an increase in consumer credit to roughly $24 billion. Mortgage rates continue to capitulate with treasury moves with the conventional 30 Year Fxd moving between 3.75 and 4%.
Market Commentary [03.04.2022]
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall near the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.765%. Investors continue to shift into safe havens during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With Russia’s bombing of a nuclear power plant Yesterday, in what feels like an escalating strategy, yields are responding to geopolitical events and more or less shrugging off domestic positive economic releases. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 678,000 with the unemployment rate at 3.8% according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Estimates were 440,000 and 3.9% for the unemployment rate. Wages remained flat at 0.03% increase vs 0.5% increase expected. This is the last jobs report ahead of the Fed’s next meeting, where it is anticipated that the Fed will begin hiking rates. Powell indicated Wednesday that he is leaning towards an initial 25 basis point hike. Mortgage Rates are slightly improved this morning, however, given continued volatility, many will likely lean into thicker margins to hold rates steady.
Market Commentary [03.03.2022]
Bond pricing opened slightly improved after treasury yields fell from overnight levels. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.863%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met before Congress Yesterday and touted that he still sees interest rate hikes ahead. There was some pause though, as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the U.S. economy are highly uncertain according to Powell. Investors continue to watch domestic jobs and inflation data as the Fed digests geopolitical impacts as well. Initial jobless claims came in better than expected this morning at 215,000 jobs vs 225,000 expected. Continuing claims spiked slightly to 1.48 million. Powell has another day of testifying before Congress Today. All said, there’s enough uncertainty in the current market to cause slightly higher volatility. Mortgage rates are slightly improved this morning, however some could look to hold back more margin given the uncertainty.
Market Commentary [03.02.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.792%. Fed Chair Powell is due to deliver his semiannual monetary policy testimony to the House at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday, and then to Senate at the same time on Thursday. Investors are looking for clues as the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues. The conflict continues to push crude oil prices higher by as much as 6% in some cases. Biden vowed to “inflict pain” on Putin as he looks to more aggressive tactics in his plans to siege Kyiv and other major cities in Ukraine against stiff resistance. This morning’s ADP employment report showed businesses adding 475,000 jobs in February, along with an upward revision in January to 509,000 job adds. Economists are still leery though and are looking ahead to Friday’s official U.S. employment report published by the Labor Department. Mortgage rates are holding steady with 30 year rates near 4%.
Market Commentary [03.01.2022]
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields slide lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.78%. Markit manufacturing PMI and construction spending are released this morning. President Biden will speak at the State of the Union this evening. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed investors into safe havens like bonds, pushing yields down. The Kremlin desperately wants to capture Kyiv but has run into stiff Ukrainian resistance. Satellite imagery still shows a 40-mile-long convoy advancing toward Kyiv. Investors are watching closely as sanctions against Russia could cause supply chain issues and drive prices up further. The Fed remains in a precarious position. The latest rate survey from Freddie Mac showed the average 30 Yr Fxd at 3.89% while the average 15 Yr Fxd was 3.14%. Rates have reached their highest levels since roughly May of 2019.
Market Commentary [02.28.2022]
Bond pricing is improved as treasury yields slide lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.899%. Investors continue to shift into safe havens with Russia launching an invasion in Ukraine, and continuing to push into main cities like Kharkiv and Kyiv. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is due to testify before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday for the central bank’s semiannual monetary policy report to lawmakers. Investors will be watching closely for any indications on how the Russia-Ukraine crisis might affect the Fed’s monetary plans. Employment data will be released this week with focus on February’s nonfarm payrolls due out Friday. U.S. trade deficit in goods surged to a record $107 billion in January, jumping by 7.1%. Retail inventories rose 1.9%.Mortgage rates are elevated, having run up from early January, but are holding with treasuries as investors find footing with geopolitical events.
Market Commentary [02.25.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields rise. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.983%, and hovering near the 2% threshold. Consumer spending rebounded slightly at the start of the year, growing 2.1% as Americans bought more cars and recreational goods. Inflation as gauged by the Fed’s preferred core PCE measure rose 5.2% in January from a year ago, the biggest rise since April 1983. Still unevenness persists as the economy sputters. Personal income was flat for the month, actually falling after-tax, or from a disposable income perspective. Mortgage rates have been on the rise since early January and are near the highs thus far while Russia/Ukraine tensions continue to weigh on investors decisions and the Fed's outlook on monetary policy.
Market Commentary [02.24.2022]
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall rapidly on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.865%. Gold and other safe havens also saw inflows and jumped to some of their highest levels in more than a year. Putin said in an address early Thursday that Russia would launch military action in Ukraine. There were then reports of multiple explosions in four or more Ukrainian cities. The escalating conflict has pushed the price of oil higher, causing concerns of higher inflation overall and complicating the Fed’s strategy to rein in rising prices. Initial jobless claims came in at 232,000, close to the expected 235,000, with continuing claims at 1.48 million. GDP grew at 7% in the 4th quarter of last year, but is believed to have pulled back sharply in the 1st quarter of 2022 with omnicron and other impacts. New home sales will be released at 10am with economists expecting a release near an annualized rate of 803,000 new home sales.
Market Commentary [02.23.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.962%. Investors continues to sell out of some safe haven assets despite developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Some analysts believe that the recent developments could make the outlook for Fed rate hikes less clear. Tensions have had some short term impacts on oil and gasoline, driving inflation higher and further complicating the Fed’s strategy. There are no economic releases Today, however, initial jobless claims will release Tomorrow along with new home sales. Friday will be full of more inflation, income, and spending data. As inflation rises, purchasing power per unit of currency decreases. How have inflation and M2 tracked historically? M2 Money Supply is a measure of the currency currently in circulation. M2 growth surpassed 10 percent in 2001 and 2009 with the Fed deploying expansionary monetary policy, however, M2 accelerated rapidly over 2020 and 2021 driven by the Fed’s purchasing of Treasury’s and mortgage backed securities.
Market Commentary [02.22.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields fall slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.948%. Geopolitical tension with Russia aggressively moving closer to moving into Ukraine over the long weekend has added volatility to the markets. Investors are finding themselves stuck between the Fed’s response to inflation with monetary policy decisions and the standoff with Russia and Ukraine. On the data front for Today, December’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price is due out at 9 a.m. ET. The last reading showed a year over year 18.8% increase in home prices. Consumer confidence will also be released at 10 a.m. ET. Mortgage rates continue to rise as seen in Freddie Mac’s latest rate survey. As of 2/17/22, the average 30 year fxd was 3.92%, while the average 15 year fxd was 3.15%. Continued tension between Russia and Ukraine could cause higher volatility in a moment’s notice. Its best to remain vigilant in remaining hedged throughout the day, trading in early hours and adding coverage as needed.
Market Commentary [02.17.2022]
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields worsen slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.977%. The Fed’s January meeting minutes released Yesterday, indicated that the Fed would likely start increasing rates soon and outlined its plans for removing the remaining trillions of dollars of bonds off its balance sheet. Geopolitical tensions remain high after NATO officials accused Russia of increasing border troop presence near Ukraine. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected at 248,000 vs the 218,000 expected. Continuing claims remain at 1.59 million. Building permits came in stronger than expected at 1.90 million vs 1.75 million expected, as housing starts fell slightly to 1.64 million below expectations of 1.69 million. Higher rates could start hampering new builds as affordability continues to play against higher prices.
Market Commentary [02.16.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.029%. Investors have a close eye on geopolitical matters as well as the FOMC minutes due to be released at 2:30pm. Many have accused the Fed of waiting too long to act, with inflation running much higher than a typical cycle. Despite higher inflation, retail sales surged 3.8% in January, much more than the expected 2.1%. Online shopping contributed the most on a percentage basis, with nonstore retailer seeing a gain of 14.5%. on a year over year basis, retail sales rose 13%. Mortgage rates have been on the rise in recent weeks, but have stalled in recent days as the 10 year reached the 2% mark. Be cautious as further breakouts could lead to higher rates in the short term as more news unfolds related to the Fed’s monetary policy plan and timing.
Market Commentary [02.15.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.035%. There is some hope of de-escalation as Russia moves some troops back to their bases from the Ukraine border. Bullard spoke Monday repeating the need for the central bank to take aggressive steps to fight inflation in the first half of 2022. Bullard believes the Fed should “front-load” the tightening of its monetary policy. The producer price index showed final demand for goods and services grew by 1% for the month, against estimates of 0.5%. Over the past 12 months the indicator has increased by 9.7%. There is little other economic news Today, however the remaining week is full of releases ranging from retail sales to jobless claims to housing starts.
Market Commentary [02.14.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to test recent highs amidst fear of rapid inflation. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.974%. St. Louis Fed President Bullard reiterated his call for the central bank to take aggressive steps to fight inflation in the first half of 2022, citing as much as a 100 bp in rate hike by July 1st. The last four inflation reports have led some including Bullard to believe that inflation is broadening and potentially accelerating in the U.S. economy. Many even believe that the Fed is behind the curve in fighting inflation with the latest consumer price index rising 7.5% year over year. There are no economic releases scheduled for Today, but the producer price index will be released Tomorrow and retail sales and Housing data will be released later this week. Freddie Mac’s latest rate survey takes into account some of the recent upward market movement as rates continue to jump higher. Many are watching closely in the short run as homebuyer demand will likely fade as affordability becomes more and more of an issue in a rising price and rate environment. Average mortgage rates as of 2/10/22 are shown below.
Market Commentary [02.11.2022]
Bond pricing is trying to rebound after treasury yields shot higher in overnight sessions. The US 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 2.008%, finally crossing the 2% mark and the highest level seen since July of 2019 as the market digested news of the hottest inflation reading in almost four decades Yesterday. UMich consumer sentiment and 5 year inflation expectations are due to be released this morning at 10am ET. UMich consumer sentiment has faded in recent months due to covid variants, rising inflation, and overall government economic policy decisions. Economists are expecting a reading near 67.0 based on the last release at 67.2. With recent moves, the current mortgage market coupon has undoubtedly shifted from 3.0s to 3.5s with rates moving higher. Rising home prices coupled with rising rates will likely lead to slowdown if both prevail; affordability will likely continue to fade and less home seekers will be able to find what they are looking for at an affordable price.
Market Commentary [02.10.2022]
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields remain steady. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.927%. January’s consumer price index is due out at 8:30am ET this morning and is expected to show continued growth in prices. Economists are expecting a roughly 0.4% increase over the previous month and 7.2% increase year over year, which would be the highest increase since 1982. Hotter inflation readings will likely queue the Fed to act faster in terms of monetary policy, potentially increasing rate hikes. Mortgage rates are holding steady but be prepared for volatility Today early in the day with economic releases.
Market Commentary [02.09.2022]
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields take a break. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.938%. Today is light in terms of economic release with wholesale inventories released at 10am ET followed by two Fed speakers. Investors are looking ahead to Tomorrow’s initial jobless claims and Core CPI numbers, both of which are on the Fed’s watchlist as they update their approach to monetary policy. Wholesale inventories advanced 2.1% for December as expected, but an increase over November. It marks 17 straight months of gains amidst gains in inventories of both durable and nondurable goods. Mortgage rates are slightly improved this morning, but have held to an upward trajectory to start the year with the 30 Year Fxd jumping from roughly 3 to 3.5% over the course.
Market Commentary [02.08.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move to higher ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.949%, with 2% in sight as it tests new highs. According to the NFIB small business sentiment released this morning, small business sentiment has dropped to an 11-month low. Persistent worker shortages and higher prices for materials have weighed on small businesses the most. Keeping rising labor costs in check has been a constant concern for small businesses. The international trade deficit increased from $79.3 billion in November to $80.7 billion in December as imports increased more rapidly than exports.
Market Commentary [02.07.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.921%. Yields moved higher after strong jobs data last week. More inflation data is scheduled for release later this week, giving the Fed a balanced look at recent job and inflation performance. Consumer credit is due out at 3 pm ET Today. Consumer credit increased by 40 billion for November and economists are expecting 24 billion for the next reading. Mortgage rates have more or less flat lined with treasury yields holding steady over the past week. Freddie Mac reported the average 30 Yr Fixed as 3.55% while the average 15 Yr Fxd was 2.77%.
Market Commentary [02.04.2022]
Bond pricing took a fall this morning as treasury yields push to recent highs. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.896%. According to the latest employment report, the economy added 476,000 jobs in January, much more than the 150,000 expected. With the Fed expressing satisfaction with employment trends, this reading will most likely solidify plans to raise rates and end quantitative easing. Despite the job adds, the unemployment rate moved slightly upward from 3.9 to 4%, likely due to some of the Omicron variant impacts. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.7% in January and 5.7% annually, further pointing to concerns over persistent inflation. The faster than expected advance in pay could fuel market concerns as the Fed could be more aggressive on its inflation stance.
Market Commentary [02.03.2022]
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields moved lower in the early session. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.802%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 238,000 in the latest reading. The median estimate called for 245,000. Continuing claims also fell to 1.63 million the week ended Jan 22. Overall, claims have been falling in the past year with layoffs at record lows as companies are desperate to retain and attract talent amid labor shortages. The Unemployment Report comes out Tomorrow with economists expecting 150,000 job adds in January. The ADP report earlier this week showed a dip of 301,000 jobs last month, the most since April 2020. Jobs data continues to be a primer for monetary policy as the Fed looks to inject rate hikes in the coming months.
Market Commentary [02.02.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.78%. Investors have shifted to focus on the ADP employment report released this morning in the next round of daily jobs data this week. Initial jobless claims are due out Tomorrow followed by the Unemployment Report Friday. Economists are expecting 200,000 private jobs were added in January, down from December’s growth of 807,000 adds. Job openings data Tuesday showed 11 million job openings in December, more than 4.6 million above the total unemployment level. So many workers quit in the latter months of 2021 that it is being heralded as the Great Resignation. There was, however, a slowdown in the speed of resignations in December, possibly as workers paused for the holiday season. The Fed continues to monitor job data as it looks to make changes to its monetary policy.
Market Commentary [02.01.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.766%. With more jobs data on the front, the Fed is watching closely, signaling that it could start tightening monetary policy and raising rates as early as March. Some economists have responded that the Fed has reached “peak hawkishness”, with economists predicting up to 5 rate hikes this year. Markit Manufacturing data will be released at 9:45am ET with Job openings and Job quits being released at 10am ET. Economists are expecting 10.5 million job openings for December, roughly the same as the reading from November. Job quits have hit new highs with many workers leaving their jobs in search of a better opportunity. There were close to 4.5 million workers who quit in November. That number is expected to continue to be high amidst increased inflation, forcing some to find better pay and benefits with a transition.
Market Commentary [01.31.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.816%. It’s officially jobs week in terms of releases with Job openings and quits Tomorrow, ADP Employment Wednesday, Initial jobless claims Thursday, and the Unemployment Report Friday. The Fed has indicated that it’s looking for a better recovery in the jobs market to help inform its timeline for tightening monetary policy. Inflation has also been a key measure which has signaled the need for interest rate increases to combat pricing pressures. As investors weigh in on all the job data this week we could see more volatility introduced. Positive jobs data could lead to investors eyeing Fed hikes sooner rather than later. All said, its important to remain vigilant in maintaining your hedge position. Historically, pricing tends to be more favorable in morning trading sessions and can fade into market close. Manage predicted incoming lock volumes to avoid overnight moves. Treasury yields have been relatively flat this past week after reaching new highs. Rates have followed on point according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 1/27/22. The average 30 Year Fxd was 3.55% while the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.8%.
Market Commentary [01.28.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.798%. Inflation jumped 5.8% in 2021 according to the latest PCE inflation data. Core inflation came in at 4.9% YoY for December vs 4.8% expected. Inflation rose another 0.5% MoM in December, in line with expectations. This was the fastest gain in inflation since 1983. The Fed has hinted at several rate hikes that could begin as early as March to begin curbing inflation. The market has priced in roughly 5 quarter point increases for this year. Additional inflation measures will be released at 10am with the UMich consumer sentiment index and 5 year inflation expectations.
Market Commentary [01.27.2022]
Treasury yields moved slightly higher after the Fed announcement yesterday, but bond pricing and yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.841%. The Fed hinted at a .25 basis point hike likely in March as well as a full wind down of asset purchases within that time frame. The markets have been jittery against what has been shared to date as investors were concerned that the Fed may take broader or more robust action given heightened inflation. Initial jobless claims fell to 260,000 for last week with continuing claims rising slightly to 1.68 million. GDP also showed a 6.9% increase, much stronger than the 5.5% expected. Gains came from strong consumer activity in terms of personal consumption expenditures along with gains in private inventory assessment. It seems as though we’ve moved past some of the imbalances seen last year as output slowed due to supply chain issues and raw material shortages coupled with robust demand.
Market Commentary [01.26.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat ahead of the Fed decision later Today. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.783%. Investors believe the Fed will signal that it will be ready to raise interest rates as early as March, along with other potential tightening measures. International trade, retail inventories and new home sale starts are all scheduled for release this morning. The Fed announcement will be at 2pm ET with Jerome Powell’s news conference shortly after. Economists are expecting 757,000 new home starts, up from the prior reading at 744,000. Housing inventory has built up over the course. At the last release, it would have taken 6.5 months to exhaust the supply of new homes, compared to 3.6 months at the beginning of 2021. Subsequently, new starts have slowed into recent months. Mortgage rates have increased in January as well, which will likely add some pressure to new starts as homebuyers weigh out affordability.
Market Commentary [01.25.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 year treasury is currently 1.751%, running up slightly in overnight markets. Investors remain focused on the Fed who begin their two day policy meeting Today with announcement to follow Tomorrow. The Fed is expected to signal a continued tightening of monetary policy and will likely speak of a potential first rate hike as early as March. Geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia also remains elevated and is putting some pressure on markets as the U.S. calls for all U.S. citizens to depart Ukraine immediately given Russia’s ever increasing military presence at the border. The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index showed a YOY increase in home prices of 18.8% on average and 18.3% for the 20 city index, slightly slower than October’s readings at 19%. Phoenix, Tampa and Miami saw year over year gains ranging from 32.2% to 26.6%. Mortgage rates remained steady over the period, fueling demand. Rates have increased since then, which will likely dampen results in the coming months as affordability becomes more at play.
Market Commentary [01.24.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch slightly higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.737%. Markit Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 9:45 am ET this morning. December’s reading was reduced to 57.7, which still points to relatively strong expansion in factory activity. There are no other economic releases Today. Investors are honing in on the Fed meeting scheduled to start Tomorrow with the FOMC statement to be released at 2pm ET, followed by Jerome Powell’s news conference. Investors are still looking for additional clues on how much the central bank will raise interest rates this year and when it will start. Several economists have recommended that we could see as many as four rate hikes or more due to the increased surge in inflation.
Market Commentary [01.21.2022]
Bond pricing improved this morning as treasury yields retreat lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.756%. Investors will be watching closely as Tuesday approaches with the Fed’s two day policy meeting. The Fed could look to announce an end to its asset purchases and shift to look toward interest rate hikes, some feel as early as March. Mortgage rates remain elevated with the most recent Freddie Mac Rate Survey showing the average 30 Year Fxd at 3.56% and the average 15 Year Fxd at 2.79%, both up roughly 50 bps since December 23rd. There is however little economic releases Today with treasury yields faded to start. It could turn out to be a relatively quiet Friday.
Market Commentary [01.20.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.825%. The 10 Year slid lower after hitting 1.9% in early trading Wednesday, still amidst mounting anticipation that the Fed will soon raise interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose sharply last week to 286,000, up 55,000 from the previous week and above expectations of 225,000. Continuing claims also rose to 1.64 million from 1.60 million. Existing Home Sales will be released at 10m ET and then leading economic indicators will be released Tomorrow at 10am ET marking a quiet end to a turbulent week. Existing home sales are expected to be 6.48 million annualized, slightly higher than the last reading of 6.46 million. Mortgage rates remain elevated with basis starting to shift into 3.5 coupons.
Market Commentary [01.19.2022]
Bond pricing is mixed as treasury yields find new footing. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.866% after hitting 1.9% earlier this morning. That marks the highest yield since December of 2019 as investors anticipate Fed interest rate hikes sooner rather than later. Building permits surged 9.1 percent in December to a annualized rate of 1.873 million, the highest level since January and well above market expectations at 1.71 million. Housing starts also came in above expectations at 1.70 million compared to the expected 1.65 million. Freddie Mac’s most recent rate survey from 1/13/22 shows some of the recent spike in mortgage rates. At the time of release, the average 30 Yr fxd was 3.45% while the average 15 Yr fxd was 2.62%. As of December 23rd and the most recent lows, the 30 Yr Fxd was averaging 3.05% while the 15 Yr fxd was averaging 2.30%. Yields have continued to push upwards sending rates even higher in the past week.
Market Commentary [01.18.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to climb higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury is at 1.82% after testing a 2 year high at 1.85% in early trading. Investors are prepping for the possibility of more aggressive tightening by the Fed as several members dropped hints last week on the Fed’s approach. The recent move is a continuation of the current upward trend since the beginning of January. Another post-holiday pre-market move without opportunity to react stressing the need to remain hedged, trading early, frequently and as needed. This week’s economic releases are fairly light with focus on housing data Wednesday and jobs data Thursday. The NAHB home builders index will be released at 10am ET Today. Economists are expecting a reading of 84, the same as the last. Scarce inventory matched with strong demand continues to plague the home building sector. With the continued rise in treasury yields, mortgage rates are also on the rise and could add pressure to the housing market as homes become increasingly less affordable.
Market Commentary [01.14.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly worse at the open and treasury yields are moving higher with focus on Fed comments from Thursday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.722%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” that he believed that interest rates could be hiked three or four times this year. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans echoed similar sentiment saying he saw three hikes at most likely this year, but was open to more. Many believe the Fed is trying to talk down bonds in the interim as inflation releases such as the consumer price index showed a 7% jump year over year. Retail sales figures released this morning showed a drop of 1.9% month over month in December, the biggest decline since February of 2021, ending 4 straight months of strong growth despite covid spread and shipping delays.
Market Commentary [01.13.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher ahead of jobs and inflation data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.739%. Economists are expecting 200,000 initial jobless claims this week after the last reading of 207,000. Continuing claims were 1.75 million at the last reading. Economists are also expecting a 0.4% month over month increase in the producer price index. Both will be released at 8:30am ET. Fed members are also scheduled to speak at 10, noon, and 1pm ET to round out the day. Tomorrow will bring retail sales and the import price index along with industrial production and capacity utilization. Mortgage Rates have popped over the past two weeks. It will be interesting to see the impact on mortgage applications in the coming weeks. The last reading from the first week of January showed an increase of 1.4% in applications for the first week of January, pre recent market moves.
Market Commentary [01.12.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat with inflation data released this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.718%. The December consumer price index increased 7% annually with a 0.5% increase monthly. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices increased 5.5% year over year. This was fairly in line with expectations, but marks the fastest increase in annual movement since June 1982. Powell confirmed in a hearing before the U.S. Senate on Tuesday that interest rate hikes along with reductions in the central bank’s support for the economy would be needed to control inflation. He also felt the economy was strong enough to support tighter monetary policy. The Federal Budget and Beige Book will be released this afternoon at 2pm ET, but will likely have little impact leading to a relatively tranquil market Today. However, Tomorrow brings PPI, and Initial jobless claims which could reignite volatility and the need to remain diligent as treasury yields find new footing at these higher levels.
Market Commentary [01.11.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning as investors hone in on Fed policy clues. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.769%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs at 10am ET Today. Additional Fed members are due to make speeches about economic policy Today as well. Investors will be listening closely for any potential bread crumbs to be dropped about the Fed’s economic policy moving forward. New revelations could spark additional volatility Today. Trade early, often and as needed to ensure pipelines remain hedged and anticipate pipeline swings that could lead to greater exposure outside of market hours. As we’ve shifted to 3.0s as market coupon, 2.5s have lost significant ground since the beginning of January. Check out the UM30 2.5 chart below. Tomorrow will bring the Consumer Price Index, Core CPI, and other inflation data which could swing treasury yields higher. According to the NFIB Small Business index released this morning, 22% of small business owners pointed to inflation as their key issue. Finding good help still remains a close second for many businesses. This has left many businesses understaffed and scurrying to cover new found expense in their pricing for goods and services. Overall businesses remain optimistic with an index reading of 98.9% for December of last year, ahead of forecast and a 3 month high for the index.
Market Commentary [01.10.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher with investors eyeing inflation figures. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.782%. Wholesale inventories is released at 10am ET Today. There are no other releases Today, but investors are looking ahead this week to Wednesday which will be loaded with inflation data. Look for continued market volatility this week as a result. We’ve undoubtedly shifted into 3.0 coupons with rates on the rise. Best to stay diligent as yields find new range to trade. Isolate lower note rates in your pipeline that are more likely to pull through now but are more price sensitive given recent market movement and make sure coverage is adequate as yields move higher. Freddie Mac’s latest rate survey from 1/6/22 shows some of the recent move. The average 30 year fxd was 3.22% while the average 15 year fxd was 2.43%, both moving higher over previous postings.
Market Commentary [01.07.2022]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning after marching higher in previous sessions. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.728%. Investors will be eyeing this morning’s December nonfarm payrolls report closely. Economists are expecting the economy to have added 422,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate is expected to be roughly 4.1%. ADP saw private sector job adds near 807,000 in December with its release Wednesday. That was significantly higher than expected at 375,000. Fed member James Bullard remarked that the Fed could hike interest rates as soon as March in recent comments. Average hourly earnings and Consumer credit are also scheduled for release Today. We’ve seen treasury yields climb rapidly in recent weeks, establishing new levels of support and resistance. Remain cautious as Today could be another wild day for yields starting with the release of the nonfarm payrolls report.
Market Commentary [01.06.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields catapult higher. The 10 Year Treasury yield topped 1.75% yesterday and is currently trading at 1.728%. Following big gains in ADP employment numbers, investors poured over FOMC minutes yesterday which reinforced the idea that the Fed would continue to speed tapering given recent positive jobs news and general continued economic recovery. Initial jobless claims this morning showed 205,000 with 1.75 million continuing claims. Jobless claims have remained at or near 200,000 for a few months now. Investors will be watching Nonfarm Payrolls tomorrow morning for a more robust view of the jobs market. Yields seem to be on an upward tyrant with the start of the new year. It's evident we've moved from a flat market, be cautious, diligent and remain hedged in this period of higher volatility.
Market Commentary [01.05.2022]
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields try to find footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. FOMC minutes are due out later Today in which the Fed resolved to speed up reduction of its monthly bond purchases. Fed officials also indicated three potential interest rate hikes coming in 2022. Investors will be reviewing the minutes when released at 2 pm ET for any new information. The ADP Employment report releases at 8:15 am ET with economists forecasting 375,000 job hires vs. last month at 534,0000. The jobs market has been showing some rebound but has taken longer to recover with covid restrictions in some states and some workers leaving for new opportunities at record paces, leaving many jobs unfilled.
Market Commentary [01.04.2022]
Bond pricing worsened this morning as treasury yields catapulted higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.675%. The 30 Year Treasury yield has now moved over 2% and is currently at 2.041%. The November Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is due to be released at 10 am ET. The Fed continues to watch employment data as it tightens monetary policy. Economists are expecting 11.1 million Job openings vs the last reading of 11.0 million. Job quits have been high as 4.2 million left their roles in the last reading to follow other aspirations. Buckle in tight, with the 10 Year yield above 1.5% and picking up speed it feels as if this week could pose challenges from a volatility standpoint, especially with FOMC Minutes, and more jobs data later this week with the Unemployment Report due out Friday.
Market Commentary [01.03.2022]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.574%. Strategists are expecting higher treasury yields in 2022 with the Fed’s approach to tapering and interest rate hikes expected potentially later this year. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI for December will be released around 9:45 am ET with construction spending at 10 am ET. Factory growth has been slow with recent manufacturing numbers being revised lower as output remains low. Raw material and labor shortages have continued to plague the industry along with higher input prices which have made retaining employees difficult alongside higher inflationary pressures related to transportation and distribution. The latter part of this week brings more economic news that could shift the pendulum. Watch closely for FOMC Minutes Wednesday, initial jobless claims Thursday as well as the Nonfarm Payrolls report Friday. Yields over 1.5% may be the new norm for the 10 year as we forge ahead.
Market Commentary [12.30.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.521%. Economists were expecting initial jobless claims to be flat at 205,000 and continuing claims to remain near 1.8 million. Both figures dropped, with initial jobless claims coming in at 198,000 and continuing claims dropping to 1.72 million. Treasury yields moved slightly higher on the news, but with little other releases Today and an early close Tomorrow, yields will likely hold fairly steady into the weekend.
Market Commentary [12.29.21]
Bond pricing is slightly worse and treasury yields are slightly higher this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.521%. The U.S. trade deficit soared to a record 97.8 billion as businesses clamored to stock shelves for the Christmas season. Manufacturing bottlenecks continue to plague raw material production which in turn has caused a good deal of fluctuation in trade as businesses try to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales saw a decrease of roughly 2.2% as consumers stepped away from higher prices. The housing market continues to find balance amidst higher prices as demand and supply fluctuate.
Market Commentary [12.28.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields continue to hover waiting for new direction. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.462%. The U.S. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index has showed continued growth through the pandemic to all time recent highs with year over year growth over 19% in some cities. October showed a gain of 19.1%, slightly below economists expectations, as the housing market begins to cool off. The October reading marks the fourth highest reading in the national index’s 34 years of data. Low inventory and rates against pent-up demand have fueled housing prices higher. Phoenix, Tampa and Miami led the 20 City composite with gains of 32.3%, 28.1%, and 25.7% respectively. With mortgage rates expected to rise next year, there could be added pressure on affordability as young buyers continue to struggle to find an entry point. There are no other economic releases scheduled for Today so it should be a relatively light trading day once again.
Market Commentary [12.27.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat after the long weekend. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.484%. There are no economic releases Today and the markets will likely trade light volume with many still off for the holidays. Mortgage rates continue to remain historically low despite jittery treasury yields feeding off omicron news. The average 30 Year Fxd rate was 3.05% and the average 15 Year Fxd rate was 2.3% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey as of 12/23/2021. Tomorrow will provide another opportunity to peek into the world of housing prices with the S&P Case-Schiller U.S. Home Price Index being released.
Market Commentary [12.23.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat amidst a myriad of economic release this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.47%. Initial jobless claims released on target with 205,000 claims, the same as the prior release and just below expectations. There are 1.86 million continuing claims, which is down from the last reading. Personal income was 0.4%, inline with expectations as well as consumer spending at 0.6%. Monthly core inflation came in slightly hotter than expected at 0.5%, above estimates of 0.4%, while year over year inflation released at 4.7%, ahead of the 4.5% expectation. Durable goods, core capital goods, disposable income, and real consumer spending were also released this morning, with little effect on treasury yields. Still to come is new home sales along with five year inflation expectations and consumer sentiment from UMich. Economists are expecting an uptick in new home sales from last month’s reading of 745,000. It seems as though low trading volume has crept in, adding to the monotony of market reaction. The Bond Market will close early Today and will be closed Tomorrow in observance of Christmas, leaving the short week behind to the sound of jingle bells and the smell of fresh baked goods and fruitcake ahead.
Market Commentary [12.22.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning ahead of a full plate of economic release Tomorrow before early market closure. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.463%. GDP data released this morning showed a dip to 2.3%, slightly ahead of forecast, but well below the prior quarter growth of 6.7%. Existing home sales is due out at 10am ET with forecast being 6.5 million homes. The housing market has been strong through the pandemic with low rates and high demand for in home offices, however the industry has started to slow in recent months as affordability waned and new homebuyers were priced out as home prices skyrocketed to new levels. Stay tuned bright and early Tomorrow for several 8:30am ET economic releases as investors sift through all the noise on a short market day. It could make for a jumpy morning for treasury yields ahead of the holidays.
Market Commentary [12.21.21]
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields increase. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.453%. Some economists have lowered their growth forecasts for the U.S. after Democratic lawmaker Manchin’s refusal to approve Biden’s $1.75 trillion spending plan, essentially killing it. Omicron is spreading in the U.S., representing 73% of sequenced cases. Biden is expected to speak on the matter later Today. The U.S. current account is due out this morning. The current account gap in the U.S. widened to $190 billion, or 3.3% of the GDP in the second quarter of 2021. Economists are predicting that the gap will continue to widen to roughly $205 billion with this morning’s release.
Market Commentary [12.20.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning as the holidays quickly take over. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.399%. Europe has moved toward reimposing Covid restrictions after the new omicron variant threatens to spread more rapidly. Pfizer on Friday said the pandemic could extend through 2023, giving pause to many investors. The Fed’s hawkish turn on monetary policy continues to be in focus for investors as well. It’s likely that the Fed will accelerate the reduction of its monthly bond purchases and look to hike rates next year. The last round of rate hikes began in 2016 but was reversed in recent years. The Fed Funds Rate or discount rate remains at 0.25%, near zero. Leading economic indicators will be released at 10am ET, the only economic release Today. Thursday will be a big day for releases on another short holiday week for the market, with the bond market being closed early on Thursday and all day Friday for Christmas.
Market Commentary [12.17.21]
Bond pricing improved this morning as treasury yields fell lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.399%. Investors remain cautious over the omicron variant as cases widen globally in areas like the U.K. The Fed’s hawkish turn on monetary policy also remains front and center for investors. There are no major economic releases Today, however, New York Fed President John Williams will be interviewed and Fed Gov. Christopher Waller will talk about the economic outlook to the Forecasters Club of New York. Rates have slightly upticked in recent weeks, but may see a little reprieve with treasury yields slipping Today. The average 30 Year Fxd rate was 3.12% and the average 15 Year Fxd rate was 2.34% according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey as of 12/16/21.
Market Commentary [12.16.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed after the Fed announcement. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.458%. The Fed announced that it would be buying $60 billion of bonds a month starting in January, half the level it bought prior to November and $30 billion less than in December. It’s expected that the Fed will accelerate the reduction further in 2022, along with three expected rate hikes. Initial jobless claims, building permits, housing starts and sever manufacturing indices are due out later this morning and Today. Economists are expecting initial jobless claims to continue their streak below 200,000, with an estimate of 195,000. Last month’s reading was 184,000.
Market Commentary [12.15.21]
Bond pricing worsened slightly as treasury yields inched higher this morning awaiting the Fed’s announcement later Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.455%. Investors are expecting that the Fed will likely speed up its tapering of bond purchases as recent inflation releases have continued to rise. Some are expecting the Fed to double its pace, moving to $30 billion a month, ending by March of next year. Investors are also expecting that the Fed will hike rates at least three times in the next two years, likely starting around June of next year. November’s retail sales, which have remained low in recent months, along with the NAHB Housing Market Index are both scheduled for release this morning. Be sure to tune in at 2:30pm ET as Jerome Powell takes the stage for the press conference after the Fed announcement as investors look for additional clues on the Fed’s economic plans.
Market Commentary [12.14.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning as the Fed begins their 2 day meeting with announcement Tomorrow. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.426%. The producer price index jumped 9.6% year over year in November, the biggest advance in the latest series of hot inflation readings. The index moved 0.8% higher month over month vs expectations of 0.5%. Prices for iron and steel scrap increased 10.7% while indexes for gas, fruits, fresh and dried vegetables, industrial chemicals, and jet fuel all moved higher. The NFIB small business index showed slight optimism, however most businesses reported being downbeat on taxes, madates, and supply disruptions that continue to plague the short term outlook for business. Small businesses are raising prices further in November after raw material costs continue to increase. The uncertainty index fell to a 48 year record low reading due to all the current headwinds being faced by small businesses.
Volatility continues in the final full week of trading for the year as nearly twenty central banks will be meeting over the next few days. A primary focus for investors awaiting this week’s FOMC meeting is the annual pace of consumer inflation recorded during November that reached a 39-year high. Few anticipate changes in the Fed Funds rate though there are expectations that the Fed will reduce its purchases of Treasures and MBS at an accelerated rate.
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speakers
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speakers
Market Commentary [12.13.21]
Bond pricing improves and treasury yields fall lower on no economic news to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yields is currently 1.436%. Investors are eyeing the Fed’s December policy meeting this week with announcement scheduled for Wednesday. It’s somewhat expected that the Fed will look to speed up the pace of tapering its asset purchasing program. Friday saw the biggest surge in inflation since 1982 with an increase year over year of 6.8% recorded in November.
Economic data from the previous week continues to highlight a strengthening U.S. economy with little impact from the Omicron variant to this point. Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 4th dropped to a 52-year low at 184,000 as job openings increased to 11 million at the end of October. New and existing home sales rose during October and the same is expected in November as purchase mortgage applications have been up five of the last seven weeks.
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speaker
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speaker
Market Commentary [12.10.21]
Bond pricing worsened slightly as treasury yields inched higher this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.501%. The consumer price index jumped 0.8%, slightly more than expectation of 0.7% and somewhat in line with the last reading of 0.9%. Overall the consumer price index has increased 6.8% year over year. The Fed will continue to watch inflation alongside jobs data as they continue to monitor their bond tapering speed. In addition to the consumer price index the University of Michigan is set to release its preliminary December consumer sentiment findings at 10 am ET.
Following a quiet day in bond markets, investors are looking toward next week’s policy decisions from the FOMC as well as the European Central Bank and Bank of England as labor and inflation data continue to drive sentiment. In the latest release, job openings were near record levels at 11 million while quit rates edged 2.8% lower after a high in September. Estimates show roughly 7.5 million workers are still unemployed indicating that there is still additional supply in the labor market.
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speaker
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speaker
Market Commentary [12.09.21]
Bond pricing is improved slightly as treasury yields drop on omicron developments and new data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.482%. Initial jobless claims fell to 184,000 versus economists predictions of 215,000. This is the lowest reading since 1969. Despite the drop in initial claims, continuing claims rose slightly to 1.992 million from 1.954 million. The last few months have seen waves of people filing for resignation, to the extent that its begun to be known as the Great Resignation. Of those leaving their companies, higher pay, covid burnout and lack of career-development opportunities have been cited as factors. Employers have also noted from exit interviews that limited employee feedback opportunities coupled with failure to act on given feedback have pushed many to look for new roles.
Focus returns on the Fed as speculation on the pace of tapering ramps up following recent bouts of volatility in both stock and bond markets. Towards the end of the first covid wave in June 2020, the Fed published a median forecast that the unemployment rate would decrease from over 13% to 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. Last week the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate had dropped to 4.2% in November, indicating the rate is already well below initial projections.
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speakers
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speakers
Market Commentary [12.08.21]
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release October’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Economists are expecting 10.6 million open positions in October, a slight increase from September at 10.4 million. There is little other economic news Today, however, look for Thursday and Friday to bring initial jobless claims, consumer price index, core inflation and CPI, all measures the Fed has been closely watching in its efforts to taper bond purchases through the beginning of next year.
Volatility in the bond market is at its highest point since the start of the pandemic, exceeding levels from 2019 brought on by rate cuts from the Fed over trade war concerns. An increase in rate of economic growth during the fourth quarter coupled with challenges posed by the new omicron variant illustrates the continued theme. Considering the job and housing markets as the two dominant components of the U.S. economy, while the increase in total nonfarm payroll fell well below expectations, gross household employment increased by 1.1 million and the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index decreased 0.8 points in November as consumers cited disparate views of buying and selling conditions yielding their greatest economic pessimism in a decade.
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speakers
This week's major U.S. Economic Reports and Fed Speakers
Market Commentary [12.07.21]
Stocks rallied in early trading as sentiment appears optimistic that the omicron variant will have a less pronounced impact on the global economy. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising 1.9% while the S&P 500 added 1.3%, regaining losses on technology shares that bore the brunt of last week’s selloff. Bitcoin improved by 2% to nearly $51,000, still recovering from the weekend selloff. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe advanced 1.9% while Hong Kong’s HSI jumped 2.7% and China’s SSE ticked up 0.2%.
Bond pricing is worse and treasury yields are higher overnight as investors become more at ease over the new covid variant. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.448%. Investors are also monitoring the Fed’s plan to tighten monetary policy. The Fed has suggested that it could decide to double the pace of its taper to $30 billion a month at its December meeting next week. The U.S. Trade deficit narrowed sharply in October with a large increase in exports. The trade gap plunged 17.6% to $67.1 billion. Economists were predicting a $66.8 billion deficit. Exports of crude oil, nonmonetary gold, civilian aircraft, industrial machines, soybeans and autos were the largest part of the increase in exports. Imports edged up a small 0.9% to 290.7 billion, mainly boosted by passenger cars, gem diamonds and cell phones.
Bond pricing is worse and treasury yields are higher overnight as investors become more at ease over the new covid variant. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.448%. Investors are also monitoring the Fed’s plan to tighten monetary policy. The Fed has suggested that it could decide to double the pace of its taper to $30 billion a month at its December meeting next week. The U.S. Trade deficit narrowed sharply in October with a large increase in exports. The trade gap plunged 17.6% to $67.1 billion. Economists were predicting a $66.8 billion deficit. Exports of crude oil, nonmonetary gold, civilian aircraft, industrial machines, soybeans and autos were the largest part of the increase in exports. Imports edged up a small 0.9% to 290.7 billion, mainly boosted by passenger cars, gem diamonds and cell phones.
Market Commentary [12.06.21]
Stocks opened mixed following Friday’s selloff as early reports indicate that cases of the omicron variant may be milder than previously anticipated. The DJIA led indexes, adding 0.7% while the tech heavy Nasdaq fell 0.9% and the S&P 500 was little changed. Sentiment appears to have calmed after last week’s big swings in technology and volatility from conflicting signals on the omicron variant. Bitcoin recovered some ground after sliding down to a low of $42,000 on Saturday, trading near $48,000. Oil prices rose, indicating confidence in the demand for outlook after Saudi Arabia raised its official selling prices for all grades of crude into Asia for January.
Bond pricing is improved this morning following Friday’s selloff that pushed treasury yields lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.356%. Every area of the U.S. saw an increase in the number of buyers signing contracts to purchase homes in October. Pending Home Sales rose 7.5% in October, although at a slightly slower pace than last year when sales were 1.4% higher. Rents are now on the increase pushing consumers on good footing to sign contracts to purchase sooner rather than later. Thus far, rates continue to remain low as investors weigh covid variant impacts and the Fed watches economic data to speed or slow their tapering plan.
Bond pricing is improved this morning following Friday’s selloff that pushed treasury yields lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.356%. Every area of the U.S. saw an increase in the number of buyers signing contracts to purchase homes in October. Pending Home Sales rose 7.5% in October, although at a slightly slower pace than last year when sales were 1.4% higher. Rents are now on the increase pushing consumers on good footing to sign contracts to purchase sooner rather than later. Thus far, rates continue to remain low as investors weigh covid variant impacts and the Fed watches economic data to speed or slow their tapering plan.
Market Commentary [12.03.21]
Stocks fell today in response to a below-average November jobs report weighed against the Fed’s monetary policy. Tech led losses as the Nasdaq fell 0.8% this morning while the S&P 500 and DJIA trailed behind with losses of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Despite the mixed job report of low non-farm payroll but also lower unemployment than expected – investors dispel any idea of the Fed holding off on the taper and are still expecting the asset purchases sooner than later. Global markets are also down, with the Stoxx 600 trailing off 0.3% and World index down 0.5%.
Bond pricing is improved and treasury yields dropped as jobs data fell short of expectations this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.434%. Nonfarm payrolls increased 210,000, far short of the 581,000 estimate. Still the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%, the highest level since March 2020. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% versus an expected 4.5%. Powell reinforced comments this week pointing to improvements in the U.S. economy and higher inflation that meant it was potentially time for the central bank to taper its asset purchases faster than expected.
Bond pricing is improved and treasury yields dropped as jobs data fell short of expectations this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.434%. Nonfarm payrolls increased 210,000, far short of the 581,000 estimate. Still the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%, the highest level since March 2020. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% versus an expected 4.5%. Powell reinforced comments this week pointing to improvements in the U.S. economy and higher inflation that meant it was potentially time for the central bank to taper its asset purchases faster than expected.
Market Commentary [12.02.21]
Stocks opened mixed as markets continue to bounce back and forth through the week in response to the new variant headlines. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.3% and the S&P 500 ticked 0.1% higher. Following the first case of Omicron in the U.S. on Wednesday, investors are now looking to data from the WHO suggesting that vaccines are still beneficial to combat or at least lessen the impact of the variant. Bitcoin extended losses for a third consecutive day, down 0.8% from yesterday’s close and trading near $57,000. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 1.7% while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI edged lower by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.46%. Initial jobless claims came in at 222,000, below estimates of 240,000. Continuing claims remain just below 2 million. The Fed continues to watch the labor market as a primer for reducing its bond purchases.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.46%. Initial jobless claims came in at 222,000, below estimates of 240,000. Continuing claims remain just below 2 million. The Fed continues to watch the labor market as a primer for reducing its bond purchases.
Market Commentary [12.01.21]
Stocks opened higher as uncertainty from the new Omicron variant and how governments will respond continues the recent bout of volatility. The S&P 500 improved 1% after a nearly 2% drop on Tuesday, marking the third consecutive day that the index moved more than 1% in either direction. The Nasdaq and DJIA added 1% and 0.7% respectively led by travel companies and banks that were hit the hardest during the rout. Brent oil prices increased nearly 3% as OPEC+ is set to meet today and Thursday with analysts anticipating that they may pause plans to pump more oil in January. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 1.1% and China’s SSE gained 0.4%.
Bond pricing worsened slightly this morning as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.473%. News of the Fed potentially tapering sooner than expected has treasury yields moving higher. Powell announced Tuesday that he felt the Fed could reduce bond buying faster than the $15 billion a month schedule announced in November, potentially finishing by March or April of next year. The ADP Employment Report released this morning showed 534,000 jobs added in November, above economists expectations of 506,000. Powell is expected to speak in front of the House Committee on Financial Services at 10am ET Today. Investors will continue to listen closely to pick up on the Fed’s plans for the short run.
Bond pricing worsened slightly this morning as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.473%. News of the Fed potentially tapering sooner than expected has treasury yields moving higher. Powell announced Tuesday that he felt the Fed could reduce bond buying faster than the $15 billion a month schedule announced in November, potentially finishing by March or April of next year. The ADP Employment Report released this morning showed 534,000 jobs added in November, above economists expectations of 506,000. Powell is expected to speak in front of the House Committee on Financial Services at 10am ET Today. Investors will continue to listen closely to pick up on the Fed’s plans for the short run.
Market Commentary [11.30.21]
Stocks opened lower as uncertainty on the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines on the new Omicron strain looms over sentiment. The DJIA declined 0.8% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.7% after bouncing back from last week’s selloff on Monday. Fed Chairman Powell will appear along with Treasury Secretary Yellen before the Senate Banking Committee this morning in the first of two days of congressional oversight hearings regarding pandemic stimulus. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 decreased 0.4% on oil and travel shares while Hong Kong’s HSI dropped 1.6% to its lowest level in more than a year.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields decline. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.443%. The new variant of Covid has markets rattled as vaccine makers weigh in on existing vaccine effectiveness and the elements of the new strain. Ultimately investors are shifting to safe haven assets, pushing down stock prices globally. Economists are expecting a slight decline in the consumer confidence index from 113.8 to 110.0 for November as consumers have been faced with continued inflationary pressures which have weighed on purchase decisions.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields decline. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.443%. The new variant of Covid has markets rattled as vaccine makers weigh in on existing vaccine effectiveness and the elements of the new strain. Ultimately investors are shifting to safe haven assets, pushing down stock prices globally. Economists are expecting a slight decline in the consumer confidence index from 113.8 to 110.0 for November as consumers have been faced with continued inflationary pressures which have weighed on purchase decisions.
Market Commentary [11.29.21]
Stocks opened higher following Friday’s selloff as investors asses the impact of the omicron coronavirus strain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, adding 1.6% while the S&P 500 improved by more than 1% after suffering its worst one-day decline since February. Investors are waiting for more data on the severity of the omicron variant and the efficacy of vaccines as several governments increase restrictions for international travel. Brent crude futures picked up nearly 6% after dropping more than 10% on Friday, the largest single day percentage decline since April 2020.
Bond pricing worsened slightly as treasury yields inched higher Monday morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.543%. Investors shifted to safe haven assets Friday amidst word of a newly discovered Covid variant. Investors will also be looking ahead this week to the November nonfarm payroll report due out Friday. Jobs and inflation data continue to be gauges for the Fed to determine timelines for tapering. Pending Home Sales data is due out at 10am ET. Recent data shows a decline in Pending Home Sales as prices have continued to rise and affordability has become more distant for some. Economists are expecting a slight rise to 0.7% in the data.
Bond pricing worsened slightly as treasury yields inched higher Monday morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.543%. Investors shifted to safe haven assets Friday amidst word of a newly discovered Covid variant. Investors will also be looking ahead this week to the November nonfarm payroll report due out Friday. Jobs and inflation data continue to be gauges for the Fed to determine timelines for tapering. Pending Home Sales data is due out at 10am ET. Recent data shows a decline in Pending Home Sales as prices have continued to rise and affordability has become more distant for some. Economists are expecting a slight rise to 0.7% in the data.
Market Commentary [11.24.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors prepare for several data releases including U.S. FOMC minutes and consumer income. The S&P 500 declined 0.5% while the DJIA and Nasdaq each fell 0.6%. Brent crude slipped 0.3% as prices have shown limited response to the U.S. and other countries coordinating releases from strategic reserves. Focus will now turn to OPEC+ who already cited that such releases were not justified by market conditions and may reconsider their strategy in a meeting next week. Overseas, the Turkish lira rebounded 6% from Tuesday’s plunge but its losses for the month remain at more than 20%. The Stoxx Europe 600 slid 0.5% lower after the pan-continental index suffered its worst one day drop in nearly two months on Tuesday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.681%. Buckle up tight and don’t tune out just yet, there is a myriad of economic releases this morning ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. Jobless claims moved lower with a reading of 199,000, hitting the lowest level in more than 52 years and beating estimates of 260,000. Durable goods showed an unexpected decline in October with a reading of -0.5%. Meanwhile third-quarter GDP was revised up slightly to 2.1%, but it missed estimates of 2.2%. Consumer spending, core inflation, New Home Sales and inflation expectations are all due out at 10am ET. Investors will also be pouring over the FOMC minutes released at 2 pm Today as well looking for hints of tapering its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.681%. Buckle up tight and don’t tune out just yet, there is a myriad of economic releases this morning ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. Jobless claims moved lower with a reading of 199,000, hitting the lowest level in more than 52 years and beating estimates of 260,000. Durable goods showed an unexpected decline in October with a reading of -0.5%. Meanwhile third-quarter GDP was revised up slightly to 2.1%, but it missed estimates of 2.2%. Consumer spending, core inflation, New Home Sales and inflation expectations are all due out at 10am ET. Investors will also be pouring over the FOMC minutes released at 2 pm Today as well looking for hints of tapering its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program.
Market Commentary [11.23.21]
Stocks edged lower as technology shares continue to struggle, and investors look toward surveys of U.S. purchasing managers for indications on manufacturing and services activity in the third quarter. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, slipping 0.2% while the S&P 500 and DJIA were little changed. Oil prices fluctuated after the White House announced that the U.S., China, Japan and others would release millions of barrels of crude from strategic reserves in an effort to tame prices though the move could induce backlash from OPEC+. Overseas the Turkish lira continues to weaken, reaching a record low of 12.80 lira to $1 while the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8% as an uptick in covid cases and renewed restrictions weight on market sentiment.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The US 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.653%. Biden renominated Powell as Fed Chairman, giving investors direction on the Fed’s continued path of reducing stimulus measures. Brainard, who was named vice chair, was expected to take a more dovish approach to monetary policy had he been nominated Chair. With the 10 year yield sitting near the highs of the year, some investors are now looking for the 10 year Treasury yield to break 1.7% and potentially move higher before end of year. MARKIT Manufacturing PMI is due out later this morning, with the bulk of this week’s economic releases scheduled for Wednesday ahead of market closures.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The US 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.653%. Biden renominated Powell as Fed Chairman, giving investors direction on the Fed’s continued path of reducing stimulus measures. Brainard, who was named vice chair, was expected to take a more dovish approach to monetary policy had he been nominated Chair. With the 10 year yield sitting near the highs of the year, some investors are now looking for the 10 year Treasury yield to break 1.7% and potentially move higher before end of year. MARKIT Manufacturing PMI is due out later this morning, with the bulk of this week’s economic releases scheduled for Wednesday ahead of market closures.
Market Commentary [11.22.21]
Stocks opened higher as speculation on the next chairman of the Federal Reserve comes to an end as President Biden prepares to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term. All major indexes improved, led by the S&P 500 adding 0.4%. Earnings season is entering its final round with nearly 82% of companies on the S&P 500 to have reported exceeding analysts’ projections. Overseas, the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1% as the German Chancellor calls for tighter Covid-19 restrictions and China’s SSE gained 0.6%.
Bond pricing worsened as treasury yields increased overnight . The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.581%. Existing Home Sales data is due out at 10am ET, with investors expecting a slight decrease to 6.20 million units vs the last reading at 6.29 million. Wednesday will be chock full of releases on a short trading week as the market closes Thursday for Thanksgiving and has early closure Friday. After seeing its strongest level in 8 months, existing home sales are expected to taper in its latest release this morning as supply chain issues and affordability continue to hamper purchases. However as forbearance programs end and as homebuilders continue to ramp up production, we are likely to see more homes come on the market.
Bond pricing worsened as treasury yields increased overnight . The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.581%. Existing Home Sales data is due out at 10am ET, with investors expecting a slight decrease to 6.20 million units vs the last reading at 6.29 million. Wednesday will be chock full of releases on a short trading week as the market closes Thursday for Thanksgiving and has early closure Friday. After seeing its strongest level in 8 months, existing home sales are expected to taper in its latest release this morning as supply chain issues and affordability continue to hamper purchases. However as forbearance programs end and as homebuilders continue to ramp up production, we are likely to see more homes come on the market.
Market Commentary [11.19.21]
Stocks opened mixed as new Covid-19 restrictions loom over investor sentiment of the global economic recovery. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.3% while the DJIA fell 0.6% and S&P 500 slipped 0.1% after closing at an all-time high Thursday. Earlier today, the Austrian Chancellor announced that a nationwide lockdown would start on Monday with Germany’s health minister is also considering a lockdown as a fourth wave of the pandemic hits Europe. In Washington, lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are due to vote on President Biden’s approximately $2 trillion social spending bill. Overseas, the Turkish lira weakened for a ninth consecutive day while China’s SSE advanced 1.1% and Hong Kong’s HSI decreased 1.1%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on pending news of who will be named Federal Reserve Chair. There are no major economic releases Today with next week being a short holiday week. Powell was expected to be renominated, however, Biden has interviewed Lael Brainard for the Chairman role as a potential replacement for Powell. An announcement from Biden is expected by the weekend. Mortgage rates inched higher in the latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey released 11/18/21. The average 30 Year Fxd was 3.1% with the average 15 Year Fxd at 2.39%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on pending news of who will be named Federal Reserve Chair. There are no major economic releases Today with next week being a short holiday week. Powell was expected to be renominated, however, Biden has interviewed Lael Brainard for the Chairman role as a potential replacement for Powell. An announcement from Biden is expected by the weekend. Mortgage rates inched higher in the latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey released 11/18/21. The average 30 Year Fxd was 3.1% with the average 15 Year Fxd at 2.39%.
Market Commentary [11.18.21]
Stocks ticked higher on strong corporate earnings and new data indicating that the labor market continues to recover. The Nasdaq led indexes, adding 0.5% in early trading on modest gains in the technology sector while the S&P 500 improved 0.2%. Speculation on the central bank’s timeline for increasing rates continues with some Wall Street economists now projecting the Fed to raise rates next September. Bitcoin traded near $59,000, extending its fall for a fourth day after a 0.2% decline on Wednesday. The Turkish lira fell to a record low following eight days of consecutive depreciation after the country’s central bank cut borrowing cost for a third straight month.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch slightly lower. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.594%. Initial jobless claims and continuing claims will release this morning amidst a myriad of Fed speakers Today. Economists were expecting a reading of 260,000, just slightly lower than last week’s reading at 269,000. Continuing claims last month were 2.16 million. Initial claims came in at 268,000 as labor shortages persist. Continuing claims inched lower to 2.1 million total.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch slightly lower. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.594%. Initial jobless claims and continuing claims will release this morning amidst a myriad of Fed speakers Today. Economists were expecting a reading of 260,000, just slightly lower than last week’s reading at 269,000. Continuing claims last month were 2.16 million. Initial claims came in at 268,000 as labor shortages persist. Continuing claims inched lower to 2.1 million total.
Market Commentary [11.17.21]
Stocks stumbled today as central banks raised interest rates sooner than expected to combat inflation in the economy’s normalization. The S&P 500 is down 0.3% with the DJIA falling 0.4%. US home construction has slowed down despite recent history’s high demand. A more concerning indicator as high material prices and continued labor shortages compound to slow the freight train of housing development. Overseas, Turkey’s lira has hit a record low amid news from the central bank to again cut interest rates, which will further accelerate the devaluation as shown in September, their last key rate cut. Global markets are mixed, Stoxx Europe 600 is up 0.2% while the MSCI world index fell 0.3%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.644%. Retail spending accelerated at its fastest paces since the 1990s, rising 1.7% and up from 0.8% in September. This strong grouping of economic releases is still overshadowed with concerns over rising inflation and how quickly the Fed will move to pull back its emergency stimulus measures. Building permits and housing starts are due out this morning. Real Estate has continued to boom over the past few years, although supply chain disruptions have hindered performance in recent months. Demand has remained consistent although affordability had begun to weigh on consumers, slowing things down. Permits dropped in September by 7.8%, the lowest level in over a year. Economists are expecting a similar reading with this morning’s release.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 year Treasury yield is currently 1.644%. Retail spending accelerated at its fastest paces since the 1990s, rising 1.7% and up from 0.8% in September. This strong grouping of economic releases is still overshadowed with concerns over rising inflation and how quickly the Fed will move to pull back its emergency stimulus measures. Building permits and housing starts are due out this morning. Real Estate has continued to boom over the past few years, although supply chain disruptions have hindered performance in recent months. Demand has remained consistent although affordability had begun to weigh on consumers, slowing things down. Permits dropped in September by 7.8%, the lowest level in over a year. Economists are expecting a similar reading with this morning’s release.
Market Commentary [11.16.21]
Stocks edged higher as increased retail spending in October indicates consumer appetite was not deterred to the anticipated level due to rising inflation. The DJIA led indexes adding 0.2% while the S&P 500 inched 0.1% higher following the fifth highest closing in the history of the benchmark index. The Commerce Department reported a 1.7% rise in retail sales in October despite increasing inflation as consumers gear up for the holiday spending season. Cryptocurrencies retreated with Bitcoin briefly slipping below $59,000 to its lowest price for the month as investors indicate that riskier assets may lose momentum. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 ticked up 0.2% on telecom and auto while China’s SSE declined 0.3% and Hong Kong’s HSI rose 1.3%.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.613%. Today provides a good deal of economic insight for investors with retail sales, import price index, industrial production, NAHB home builder’ index and business inventories all scheduled for release this morning. Supply constraints have undoubtedly placed strain on the system affecting sales of all goods from vehicle to computers. Last month’s biggest increases were seen in sales of sporting goods, hobby, musical and book stores, general merchandise and gasoline. Consumers are moving about with greater ease and returning to prior activities post covid and recent delta outbreaks. That is expected to continue in this morning’s release.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.613%. Today provides a good deal of economic insight for investors with retail sales, import price index, industrial production, NAHB home builder’ index and business inventories all scheduled for release this morning. Supply constraints have undoubtedly placed strain on the system affecting sales of all goods from vehicle to computers. Last month’s biggest increases were seen in sales of sporting goods, hobby, musical and book stores, general merchandise and gasoline. Consumers are moving about with greater ease and returning to prior activities post covid and recent delta outbreaks. That is expected to continue in this morning’s release.
Market Commentary [11.15.21]
Stocks opened higher as investors look toward the end of third-quarter earnings season. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.3% while the S&P 500 added 0.2% after snapping a five-week streak of gains last week. Global oil market benchmark Brent crude fell over 1% to nearly $81 a barrel. In China, the Beijing Stock Exchange opened for trading, a venue intended to channel funds into smaller, innovative companies as greater scrutiny is applied to companies seeking listings overseas. Hong Kong’s HSI improved 0.3% while China’s SSE declined 0.2%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields drop slightly to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.556%. There are no major economic releases Today, with the holidays quickly approaching. Consumer sentiment, released Friday, fell to its lowest point in a decade as inflation readings spiked to their highest levels in over 30 years. The latest Freddie Mac Rate survey showed mortgage rates dropping. The average 30 Year Fxd was 2.98% while the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.27% as of 11/10/21. Low rates will likely continue to fuel demand, however affordability pressures continue to plague the market as sales prices have skyrocketed across the country.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields drop slightly to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.556%. There are no major economic releases Today, with the holidays quickly approaching. Consumer sentiment, released Friday, fell to its lowest point in a decade as inflation readings spiked to their highest levels in over 30 years. The latest Freddie Mac Rate survey showed mortgage rates dropping. The average 30 Year Fxd was 2.98% while the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.27% as of 11/10/21. Low rates will likely continue to fuel demand, however affordability pressures continue to plague the market as sales prices have skyrocketed across the country.
Market Commentary [11.12.21]
Stocks opened higher following a pullback in recent sessions as rising inflation looms over investor sentiment. The S&P 500 led indexes, improving 0.3% though down 0.8% for the week, potentially ending a five-week streak of gains that started at the beginning of corporate earnings season. Indications that the flare up in inflation could last longer than the Fed’s forecast spurred trader concerns of a tighter monetary policy and the timeline for raising interest rates. Johnson & Johnson shares rose 2% after reports that the healthcare company intends to split into two companies. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 ticked 0.1% higher on gains in personal goods and auto companies while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI improved 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields bounce to cap off the short market week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.563%. The Job Openings report will be released at 10am ET along with UMich consumer sentiment index and the five year inflation expectations report. Treasury yields ended last week at a lower level, but moved higher this week after releases showed rapid inflation. The consumer price index jumped 6.2% from a year ago, marking the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years. UMich Consumer Sentiment has continued to plummet over the past year as higher income expectations and the receding coronavirus have been offset by higher rates of inflation and falling confidence in government economic policies.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields bounce to cap off the short market week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.563%. The Job Openings report will be released at 10am ET along with UMich consumer sentiment index and the five year inflation expectations report. Treasury yields ended last week at a lower level, but moved higher this week after releases showed rapid inflation. The consumer price index jumped 6.2% from a year ago, marking the biggest inflation surge in more than 30 years. UMich Consumer Sentiment has continued to plummet over the past year as higher income expectations and the receding coronavirus have been offset by higher rates of inflation and falling confidence in government economic policies.
Market Commentary [11.10.21]
Stocks opened lower following new data showing U.S. inflation rose in October to its highest level since 1990. The Nasdaq led indexes, declining 0.8% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% after ending its eight consecutive day run of record closes, the longest streak for the index since 1997. The Labor Department announced that the CPI increased at the fastest annual pace since 1990 with inflation topping 5% for a fifth straight month as supply shortages and strong consumer demand continue to push prices. Overseas, factory-gate prices in China rose at a record pace in October while the producer-price index increased by a record 13.5% from the previous year. China’s SSE fell 0.4% while Hong Kong’s HSI improved 0.7%.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher on inflation data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.476%. Initial jobless claims data is due out this morning shedding further light on potential recovery. Last week’s reading came in at 269,000 jobs and economists are expecting a reading of 260,000 with this morning’s release.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher on inflation data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.476%. Initial jobless claims data is due out this morning shedding further light on potential recovery. Last week’s reading came in at 269,000 jobs and economists are expecting a reading of 260,000 with this morning’s release.
Market Commentary [11.09.21]
Stocks opened mixed following another day of record highs as investors assess corporate earnings and easing travel restrictions against the risk of inflation. The Nasdaq led indexes, gaining 0.4% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% after closing at an all-time high for the eighth consecutive session, its longest streak since 1997. The DJIA edged 0.1% lower after closing at a record for the 44th time this year. Bitcoin hit a new record, trading above $68,500 while cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global is scheduled to report earnings after markets close. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.2% led by gains in automotive shares.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields have fallen. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.462%. Jerome Powell is expected to speak later Today on diversity. The producers price index came in as expected at 0.6%, slightly above last month’s reading of 0.5%. Over 60% of the increase was due to a 1.2% surge in prices for goods, mostly gasoline (6.7%). Cost of services inched higher by 0.2%. Year over year, producer inflation remained at a record 8.6%, the same as last month but just below economists prediction of 8.7%.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields have fallen. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.462%. Jerome Powell is expected to speak later Today on diversity. The producers price index came in as expected at 0.6%, slightly above last month’s reading of 0.5%. Over 60% of the increase was due to a 1.2% surge in prices for goods, mostly gasoline (6.7%). Cost of services inched higher by 0.2%. Year over year, producer inflation remained at a record 8.6%, the same as last month but just below economists prediction of 8.7%.
Market Commentary [11.08.21]
Stocks opened higher after major U.S. indexes reached record highs Friday as strong corporate earnings and jobs data contend with inflation and supply chain concerns. The DJIA led indexes, gaining 0.6% while the S&P 500 added 0.4% after posting its fifth consecutive weekly rally as over 82% of its listed companies that have reported earnings have exceeded forecasts. Investors look forward to the release of the latest consumer price figures on Wednesday for indications on the Fed’s strategy to combat looming inflation with expectations that the reading will show price pressures running at the hottest pace in three decades. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.2% led by energy while China’s SSE added 0.2% and Hong Kong’s HSI slipped 0.4%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.481%. Treasuries fell after Friday’s job report even though results were stronger than expected. There are no major economic releases Today as investors continue to weigh in on the Fed’s approach to tapering later this year given inflation and jobs data. Wednesday will bring more to light with initial jobless claims and CPI, followed by market closure Thursday in honor of Veterans Day. According to Freddie Mac’s latest rate survey as of 11/4/21, the average 30 Year Fxd rate mortgage was 3.09%, with the average 15 Year Fxd at 2.35%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.481%. Treasuries fell after Friday’s job report even though results were stronger than expected. There are no major economic releases Today as investors continue to weigh in on the Fed’s approach to tapering later this year given inflation and jobs data. Wednesday will bring more to light with initial jobless claims and CPI, followed by market closure Thursday in honor of Veterans Day. According to Freddie Mac’s latest rate survey as of 11/4/21, the average 30 Year Fxd rate mortgage was 3.09%, with the average 15 Year Fxd at 2.35%.
Market Commentary [11.05.21]
Stocks opened higher after jobs growth data from the Labor Department exceeded expectations in October. The S&P 500 led indexes at the opening bell, gaining 0.5% while the DJIA and Nasdaq each added 0.4%. Confirming previous statements, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated how key the labor market would be in determining the central bank’s timeline for raising interest rates following the FOMC meeting earlier this week. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.2% led by gains in retail and telecom while China’s SSE slid 1% and Hong Kong’s HSI dropped 1.4%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields were flat ahead of the unemployment report. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.53%. Consensus calls for 450,000 jobs added according to Dow Jones. With this morning’s unemployment report, payroll ended up growing by 531,000 with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% as employers increased their pace of hiring in October. Average hourly earnings came in as expected month over month and year over year. The Fed has been watching the jobs market closely after announcing pieces of the plan to taper purchases. Improved unemployment will likely reinforce the Fed’s plans in the short run.
Bond pricing and treasury yields were flat ahead of the unemployment report. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.53%. Consensus calls for 450,000 jobs added according to Dow Jones. With this morning’s unemployment report, payroll ended up growing by 531,000 with the unemployment rate falling to 4.6% as employers increased their pace of hiring in October. Average hourly earnings came in as expected month over month and year over year. The Fed has been watching the jobs market closely after announcing pieces of the plan to taper purchases. Improved unemployment will likely reinforce the Fed’s plans in the short run.
Market Commentary [11.04.21]
Stocks ticked higher following a relatively calm reaction to the Fed’s taper announcement as investors return their attention to corporate earnings. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.3% while the S&P 500 advanced for a sixth straight day adding 0.1% after hitting a record high on Wednesday. Friday’s nonfarm payroll data release will be in focus as money markets speculate when the Fed will raise interest rates. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe gained 0.3% while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI each closed 0.8% higher,.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning following the Fed’s taper announcement. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.565%. The Fed announced Yesterday that it will begin to pull back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program later this month, reducing by $15 billion per month and looking to exit completely by middle of 2022. Investors are continuing to digest the news amidst other economic releases. The Fed will still likely continue to keep an eye on inflation as well. If inflation eases, they may wait for more recovery in the jobs market before raising rates. Initial jobless claims due out this morning are expected to be near 275,000 as the jobs market continues to rebound post covid.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning following the Fed’s taper announcement. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.565%. The Fed announced Yesterday that it will begin to pull back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program later this month, reducing by $15 billion per month and looking to exit completely by middle of 2022. Investors are continuing to digest the news amidst other economic releases. The Fed will still likely continue to keep an eye on inflation as well. If inflation eases, they may wait for more recovery in the jobs market before raising rates. Initial jobless claims due out this morning are expected to be near 275,000 as the jobs market continues to rebound post covid.
Market Commentary [11.03.21]
Stocks edged lower ahead of the final day of the Federal Reserve meeting following another record day for major indexes. The DJIA and S&P 500 declined 0.2% and 0.1% respectively a day after the DJIA closed above 36,000 for the first time. FOMC officials are expected to announce the beginning of the end of its bond buying program later today though speculation remains on the timeline for an increase to interest rates. Meme stocks had a big morning with Bed Bath & Beyond surging over 40% a day after announcing a partnership with Kroger while other popular favorites GameStop and AMC improved by more than 8%. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI slipped 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.
Bond pricing is improved and treasury yields fell this morning ahead of the Fed’s announcement. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.538%. The ADP Employment Report showed an increase of 571,000 jobs in October in the private sector, much stronger than the anticipated 395,000 gain expected from economists. Large businesses saw the bulk of the hiring with 342,000 job adds. The service industry continues to lead the way with 458,000 jobs added across transportation, business services and leisure/hospitality. On the year there have now been almost 5 million job gains reported by ADP.
Bond pricing is improved and treasury yields fell this morning ahead of the Fed’s announcement. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.538%. The ADP Employment Report showed an increase of 571,000 jobs in October in the private sector, much stronger than the anticipated 395,000 gain expected from economists. Large businesses saw the bulk of the hiring with 342,000 job adds. The service industry continues to lead the way with 458,000 jobs added across transportation, business services and leisure/hospitality. On the year there have now been almost 5 million job gains reported by ADP.
Market Commentary [11.02.21]
Stocks edged higher following index record highs as the Federal Reserve sets to begin its two-day policy meeting. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% after three consecutive closing records while the DJIA also ticked 0.1% higher following a brief jump above the 36000 level. Most analysts expect the Fed to announce the start of scaling back their asset-purchase program on Wednesday though there are still contrasting projections on whether a rate hike will be coming later in 2022 or early 2023. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.1% while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI lost 1.1% and 0.2% respectively.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning ahead of the Fed meeting. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.554%. There is little economic news Today with the Homeownership rate being released at 10am ET. The Fed’s meeting will conclude on Wednesday afternoon, followed by a press conference, where investors will be dialed in to listen to Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments as he gives more detail on the central bank’s plans for monetary policy. Key jobs data will follow with the Unemployment Report due out Friday shedding light on continued economic growth.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning ahead of the Fed meeting. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.554%. There is little economic news Today with the Homeownership rate being released at 10am ET. The Fed’s meeting will conclude on Wednesday afternoon, followed by a press conference, where investors will be dialed in to listen to Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments as he gives more detail on the central bank’s plans for monetary policy. Key jobs data will follow with the Unemployment Report due out Friday shedding light on continued economic growth.
Market Commentary [11.01.21]
Stocks opened higher toward record highs as earnings reports exceed expectations following the largest monthly percentage gain for the S&P 500 since November. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.5% and briefly hitting the 36,000 mark while the S&P 500 added 0.3% on commodities and financial companies. To this point, over 80% of S&P 500 listed companies that have reported so far this season have beaten expectation for earnings, easing some concerns on demand for products and services impacted by supply-chain issues. Overseas, Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 2.6% after the ruling party won a clear majority in the national election while Hong Kong’s HSI lost nearly 1% as Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings each dropped more than 2%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries slide lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury is currently 1.589%. Investors are focused on the Fed’s 2 day policy meeting this week with little time left in the remaining year. Investors will also be closely watching the ADP employment change report due out Wednesday followed by the Unemployment Report due out Friday, both of which have been on the Fed’s agenda to monitor as they look to tapering bond purchases. The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.2 in October from 60.7 in September, the lowest since March and below market forecast of 60.3. The reading points to slowing manufacturing activity after a record growth in July. Input costs jumped as material shortages combined with logistical issues and higher commodity prices weighed on manufacturing cost. Sustained sales growth continues to push firms to increase buying activity and inventory amidst the shortages.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries slide lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury is currently 1.589%. Investors are focused on the Fed’s 2 day policy meeting this week with little time left in the remaining year. Investors will also be closely watching the ADP employment change report due out Wednesday followed by the Unemployment Report due out Friday, both of which have been on the Fed’s agenda to monitor as they look to tapering bond purchases. The Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.2 in October from 60.7 in September, the lowest since March and below market forecast of 60.3. The reading points to slowing manufacturing activity after a record growth in July. Input costs jumped as material shortages combined with logistical issues and higher commodity prices weighed on manufacturing cost. Sustained sales growth continues to push firms to increase buying activity and inventory amidst the shortages.
Market Commentary [10.29.21]
Stocks opened lower following disappointing quarterly results for major U.S. companies as supply-chain and labor market issues remain in focus. The Nasdaq led indexes, dropping 0.7% while the S&P 500 declined 0.5% after notching another record on Thursday, continuing the pace for its largest single monthly percentage gain since November. U.S. giants Apple and Amazon missed their expected third quarter sales, citing that shipping and logistics delays causing supply-chain disruptions obstructed manufacturing coupled with a tight labor market as the holiday shopping season approaches. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.3% as investors sell off eurozone government bonds in response to rising inflation.
Bond pricing worsens and treasury yields increase ahead of this morning’s releases. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.601%. Personal income, consumer spending, and core inflation are all due out this morning, with most economists expecting declines across the board of releases. Core inflation has hovered at or above 4% since August and has remained more than doubled since July of this year. Economists are expecting a 0.2% increase over last month’s reading.
Bond pricing worsens and treasury yields increase ahead of this morning’s releases. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.601%. Personal income, consumer spending, and core inflation are all due out this morning, with most economists expecting declines across the board of releases. Core inflation has hovered at or above 4% since August and has remained more than doubled since July of this year. Economists are expecting a 0.2% increase over last month’s reading.
Market Commentary [10.28.21]
Stocks opened higher, continuing a push toward all-time records as investors anticipate earnings from major U.S. companies. The S&P 500 led indexes, rising 0.6% on health care and technology shares while the DJIA and Nasdaq each improved 0.5%. Supply chain difficulties still loom over sentiment following fresh data that the U.S. economy grew lower than estimated in the last quarter due to issues related to the delta variant. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI dropped 1.2% and 0.3% respectively.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.571%. The U.S. economy slowed amid the delta variant and supply concerns. GDP showed 2.0% growth compared to estimates of 2.6%. Positive impacts from stimulus checks and other economic relief delivered by the government also dwindled over the same period, causing a slowdown in consumer spending. Initial jobless claims came in at 281,000 for the week ending 10/23. Continuing claims remain at 2.243 million for the week ending 10/16. The 4-week average has moved decisively lower, a precursor of the Fed’s view on bond tapering..
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.571%. The U.S. economy slowed amid the delta variant and supply concerns. GDP showed 2.0% growth compared to estimates of 2.6%. Positive impacts from stimulus checks and other economic relief delivered by the government also dwindled over the same period, causing a slowdown in consumer spending. Initial jobless claims came in at 281,000 for the week ending 10/23. Continuing claims remain at 2.243 million for the week ending 10/16. The 4-week average has moved decisively lower, a precursor of the Fed’s view on bond tapering..
Market Commentary [10.27.21]
Stocks were little changed following record closings for the S&P 500 and DJIA as investors continue to review earnings for major U.S. companies. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.2% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1%, adding to an over 6% increase for the month of October, placing the index on course for its best monthly advance since November. Oil prices fell back from seven-year highs with West Texas Intermediate sliding 1.2% ahead of fresh data on U.S. petroleum supplies due later today. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.3% on banks and energy following its second-highest close on record. China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI dropped 1% and 1.6% respectively as tensions loom between the U.S. and China after American officials barred China’s biggest telecom operator, China Telecom, from conducting business in the U.S.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields drop. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.592%. Investors seem torn between strong earnings and continued economic concerns, giving treasury yields indefinite direction. Rising inflation, supply chain issues, and economic slowdown are all continuing to weigh on investor’s minds. Durable Goods is due out this morning, with jobs data being released Tomorrow. Durable goods rose 1.8% month over month for August following a 0.5% increase in July. Economists are expecting a -1.0% with this morning’s release for September due to supply chain issues and shortages likely weighing on demand.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields drop. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.592%. Investors seem torn between strong earnings and continued economic concerns, giving treasury yields indefinite direction. Rising inflation, supply chain issues, and economic slowdown are all continuing to weigh on investor’s minds. Durable Goods is due out this morning, with jobs data being released Tomorrow. Durable goods rose 1.8% month over month for August following a 0.5% increase in July. Economists are expecting a -1.0% with this morning’s release for September due to supply chain issues and shortages likely weighing on demand.
Market Commentary [10.26.21]
Stock indexes rose on Tuesday morning in wake of large tech earnings. The Nasdaq climbed 0.5% followed by S&P 500 at 0.4%. Earnings remain strong and provide healthy signals to the stock market. This earnings season has so far beaten expectations and continues to strengthen the equities market despite the inevitable concerns that have clouded recent months. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 is up 0.5% and the Nikkei 225 is up 1.8%. The HSI and Shanghai index both fell roughly 0.3%.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 1.626%. The 10-Year traded as high as 1.673% early in Monday’s session but fell back to current levels with stocks closing at record highs and company earnings coming out strong. Still, concerns over rising inflation and slowing economic growth are clouding investors views. Today’s S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index showed some signs of cooling in the real estate market. Prices still rose 19.8% year over year in August, coming in the same as July. Phoenix, San Diego and Tampa continue to lead nationwide price increases, with Tampa seeing 33.3% year over year price increase. The supply of homes at the lower end of the market remains extremely lean, making it difficult for first time homebuyers to enter.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is currently 1.626%. The 10-Year traded as high as 1.673% early in Monday’s session but fell back to current levels with stocks closing at record highs and company earnings coming out strong. Still, concerns over rising inflation and slowing economic growth are clouding investors views. Today’s S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index showed some signs of cooling in the real estate market. Prices still rose 19.8% year over year in August, coming in the same as July. Phoenix, San Diego and Tampa continue to lead nationwide price increases, with Tampa seeing 33.3% year over year price increase. The supply of homes at the lower end of the market remains extremely lean, making it difficult for first time homebuyers to enter.
Market Commentary [10.25.21]
Stocks climb ahead of big-tech earnings reports. The Nasdaq inched up 0.1% with the S&P 500 also opening positive. The five largest tech companies are set to release earnings starting today, a key outlook on the digital space given sticky inflation concerns. Global indexes are mixed as basic resources increase while consumer goods and industrials fall.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain elevated to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.653%. With no releases scheduled Today, investors are still contemplating recent Fed talk of upcoming tapering, with higher than normal inflationary pressures likely to persist into the middle of next year. Mortgage rates have moved higher over the past few weeks as treasury yields have moved to higher levels. The average 30 YR Fxd rate is now at 3.09%, while the average 15 YR Fxd rate is at 2.33%, according to Freddie Mac in their latest rate survey as of 10/21/2021.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain elevated to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.653%. With no releases scheduled Today, investors are still contemplating recent Fed talk of upcoming tapering, with higher than normal inflationary pressures likely to persist into the middle of next year. Mortgage rates have moved higher over the past few weeks as treasury yields have moved to higher levels. The average 30 YR Fxd rate is now at 3.09%, while the average 15 YR Fxd rate is at 2.33%, according to Freddie Mac in their latest rate survey as of 10/21/2021.
Market Commentary [10.22.21]
Stocks opened mixed today after disappointing big-tech earnings. The Nasdaq is down 0.3% while the S&P fluctuates. Earnings from Snap indicated a decline in online ad spending for the holidays. Slowing their sales growth to 30% from the Q4 expectation of 50%. Associate companies like Facebook were also affected. Their key model strained going into Q4 as companies pass on social media ads this time around. Global indexes continue their gain with the HSI closing 3% higher followed by Stoxx Europe 600 at 0.7%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.673%. The yield ran to 1.68% as investors digested the jobless claims report yesterday. Fed president Raphael Bostic stated that he sees an interest rate hike coming in the late third or early fourth quarter of 2022 as inflation persists. Some investors are concerned that policymakers are disconnected from supply chain and inflation issues. Many are pointing to protracted supply as driving inflation higher, and as supply improves we could see a slowdown relative to demand. Market is set to release its October flash purchasing managers’ index at 9:45 am ET. Economists are expecting a decline in the index from last month’s reading.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.673%. The yield ran to 1.68% as investors digested the jobless claims report yesterday. Fed president Raphael Bostic stated that he sees an interest rate hike coming in the late third or early fourth quarter of 2022 as inflation persists. Some investors are concerned that policymakers are disconnected from supply chain and inflation issues. Many are pointing to protracted supply as driving inflation higher, and as supply improves we could see a slowdown relative to demand. Market is set to release its October flash purchasing managers’ index at 9:45 am ET. Economists are expecting a decline in the index from last month’s reading.
Market Commentary [10.21.21]
Stocks lost traction today after mixed corporate earnings. The S&P 500 is slightly down after almost topping a record close yesterday. Solid earnings thus far have quelled concerns on rising costs. However, market-implied expectations for inflation within the next 5 years is the highest in almost two decades despite sentiment the economy is accelerating. Global markets are also slightly down as the Stoxx 600 fell on weakened commodity prices.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.657%. The Labor Department reported 290,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending OCT. 16, slightly better than economists expectations of 300,000. Investors are watching jobs data closely, given that the Fed has indicated that it will soon start to normalize its monetary policy approach once the labor market has returned to normalized levels. Continuing claims also reduced to 2.481 million vs 2.548 million expected.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.657%. The Labor Department reported 290,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending OCT. 16, slightly better than economists expectations of 300,000. Investors are watching jobs data closely, given that the Fed has indicated that it will soon start to normalize its monetary policy approach once the labor market has returned to normalized levels. Continuing claims also reduced to 2.481 million vs 2.548 million expected.
Market Commentary [10.20.21]
Stocks continue to rally with the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 creeped up 0.2% to start the day. The S&P 500 has climbed 3.6% after the first week of earnings, the indexes best start to a season in the last two years. Earnings are projected to slow to a 9% year-over-year gain in 2022 from the current 45%. While drastically slowed, the prospect of further growth drives the equity markets forward. In other news, Bitcoin reached an all-time high and Oil fell off a seven-year high. Overseas markets remain little changed.
Bond pricing continues to lose ground as treasury yields move higher overnight. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.637%. Strong corporate earnings late Tuesday pushed yields higher, with the 10 Year topping 1.67%, its highest point since mid-May. With the Fed looking at bond tapering and continued economic recovery taking place, yields will likely continue to be under upward pressure in the coming weeks. There are no major economic releases due out Today, however Fed governor Randal Quarles is set to speak on the economic outlook at 1pm ET. Tomorrow will bring initial jobless claims, a measure the Fed continues to watch for tapering purposes. Economists are expecting 300,000 initial jobless claims after last month’s drop to 293,000.
Bond pricing continues to lose ground as treasury yields move higher overnight. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.637%. Strong corporate earnings late Tuesday pushed yields higher, with the 10 Year topping 1.67%, its highest point since mid-May. With the Fed looking at bond tapering and continued economic recovery taking place, yields will likely continue to be under upward pressure in the coming weeks. There are no major economic releases due out Today, however Fed governor Randal Quarles is set to speak on the economic outlook at 1pm ET. Tomorrow will bring initial jobless claims, a measure the Fed continues to watch for tapering purposes. Economists are expecting 300,000 initial jobless claims after last month’s drop to 293,000.
Market Commentary [10.19.21]
Stocks climbed today as healthy corporate earnings continue. All US indexes are up, led by the S&P 500 with 0.5%. The markets find comfort in earnings’ consistency as investors continue to monitor the effect of higher energy and raw material costs on margins. Amid increased revenues, supply chain pressure continues into Q4 as investors hope that corporations are flexible on their margins to weather the storm. Elsewhere, Bitcoin surges before the launch of the first Bitcoin futures ETF. Globally, stocks are up with all major indexes in Europe and Asia in the green.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.612%. In meeting minutes released last week, the Fed indicated the central bank has come close to reaching its economic goals and could soon look to tapering bond purchases. Construction of new homes decreased in September after rising the previous month. Overall, a decline of 1.6% was seen last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.555 million homes. Housing starts are up 7.4% compared with the same month last year. Housing demand continues to remain robust amid low rates, however affordability challenges are mounting as material prices and shortages push home prices and construction costs higher.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.612%. In meeting minutes released last week, the Fed indicated the central bank has come close to reaching its economic goals and could soon look to tapering bond purchases. Construction of new homes decreased in September after rising the previous month. Overall, a decline of 1.6% was seen last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.555 million homes. Housing starts are up 7.4% compared with the same month last year. Housing demand continues to remain robust amid low rates, however affordability challenges are mounting as material prices and shortages push home prices and construction costs higher.
Market Commentary [10.18.21]
Stocks slid today as energy prices continue to climb. The Dow is down 0.2% with little changed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. A rise in oil and natural gas prices over the weekend reinforces concerns of energy shortage and supply chain disruptions. OPEC failed to meet global output targets while domestic production has also decreased. Overseas, Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.7% dragged by consumer and retail sectors as indexes in Asia closed lower due to slowed economic growth.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.60%. Unexpected positive Retail Sales growth pushed yields higher Friday. The National Association of Home Builders Index is due out this morning at 10 am ET. Rates moved to their highest point since April in Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 10/14/2021. 30 Year Fixed rates averaged 3.05%, while 15 year fixed rate mortgages were averaging 2.3%.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.60%. Unexpected positive Retail Sales growth pushed yields higher Friday. The National Association of Home Builders Index is due out this morning at 10 am ET. Rates moved to their highest point since April in Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 10/14/2021. 30 Year Fixed rates averaged 3.05%, while 15 year fixed rate mortgages were averaging 2.3%.
Market Commentary [10.15.21]
Stocks are up today in response to an unexpected increase in September retail sales. The Dow responded best at a 0.9% gain followed by the S&P 500 at a 0.6% gain. Stocks that benefit from this rebound in growth are flourishing while most tech stocks underperform. With favorable consumer balance-sheets and healthy corporate earnings, big banks are quick to dispel the stagflation narrative. Global markets are also up today with Stoxx Europe 600 climbing 0.7%.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields tick upward. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.558%. Retail sales showed a surprise increase of 0.7% for September, pushing yields upward. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.2%. This weeks inflation data was mixed with PPI coming in lighter than expected but the consumer price index climbing 0.4% over the previous month and above forecast. Year over year price inflation came in at a staggering 5.4%, also above economists’ estimates.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields tick upward. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.558%. Retail sales showed a surprise increase of 0.7% for September, pushing yields upward. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.2%. This weeks inflation data was mixed with PPI coming in lighter than expected but the consumer price index climbing 0.4% over the previous month and above forecast. Year over year price inflation came in at a staggering 5.4%, also above economists’ estimates.
Market Commentary [10.14.21]
Stocks rose today led by top banks amid a slew of earnings reports. The Dow led indexes with an increase of 1.2%. Followed by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at 1%. With rate increases on the horizon and rising energy prices, many investors are gauging if these large institutions are built to weather these pending risks or merely beneficiaries of loose monetary policy. Overseas, Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.9% while Indexes in Asia closed mixed. Markets in Hong Kong remain closed due to the Typhoon.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.528%. Initial jobless claims fell to 293,000, below the 300,000 level for the first time since the pandemic. Continuing claims totaled 2.59 million for the week ending 10/2. According to recent data, Americans are quitting their jobs at historically high rates, a sign of worker confidence in the job market. Roughly 4.3 million quit their jobs in August, the highest for records tracing back to 2000 based on Labor Department data. Economists are expecting worker shortages to persist while others think shortages may ease in the coming months due to the decreasing pandemic, school re-openings and expiring unemployment benefits.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.528%. Initial jobless claims fell to 293,000, below the 300,000 level for the first time since the pandemic. Continuing claims totaled 2.59 million for the week ending 10/2. According to recent data, Americans are quitting their jobs at historically high rates, a sign of worker confidence in the job market. Roughly 4.3 million quit their jobs in August, the highest for records tracing back to 2000 based on Labor Department data. Economists are expecting worker shortages to persist while others think shortages may ease in the coming months due to the decreasing pandemic, school re-openings and expiring unemployment benefits.
Market Commentary [10.13.21]
Stocks opened higher as companies begin to report third quarter earnings following the consumer price index exceeding projections. The Nasdaq led indexes, adding 0.6% with rebounding technology shares while the S&P 500 improved 0.2% after a three-day drop. The consumer price index rose 0.4%, seasonally adjusted, in September with a 5.4% annual rate versus a projected 0.3% increase and 5.3% annual rate amid labor and supply chain issues keeping prices higher. Overseas, China’s SSE gained 0.4% while markets in Hong Kong were closed due to a typhoon.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields backslide. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.568%. Investors are giving pause as core inflation and FOMC minutes are released Today. Tomorrow will show more jobs data with initial jobless claims rounded out by retail sales Friday. Treasuries could be in for a bumpy rest of the week based on the outcome of these economic releases.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields backslide. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.568%. Investors are giving pause as core inflation and FOMC minutes are released Today. Tomorrow will show more jobs data with initial jobless claims rounded out by retail sales Friday. Treasuries could be in for a bumpy rest of the week based on the outcome of these economic releases.
Market Commentary [10.12.21]
Stocks edged higher as financial firms prepare to start third quarter earnings season, a key indicator of investor confidence. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.4% while the S&P 500 added 0.2% following two consecutive sessions of losses. Following weeks of volatility spurred by concerns of inflation, high valuations and uncertainty in Washington, expectations for third quarter earnings have lowered recently, creating opportunities for positive surprises, beneficial for the overall market. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed while China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI fell 1.3% and 1.4% respectively as concerns on China’s struggling real-estate sector continue.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning after a long holiday weekend. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.608%. Confidence among small business owners slipped in September amidst supply and labor shortages. Still, business owners are doing their best to meet the needs of customers, however expectations are looking more grim over the next six months as conditions are perceived to worsen due to shortages of supplies and goods, many of which are in limbo off the coast of U.S. shipping ports waiting to be unloaded. Business owners are reducing plans to make capital outlays or increase inventories all things considered.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning after a long holiday weekend. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.608%. Confidence among small business owners slipped in September amidst supply and labor shortages. Still, business owners are doing their best to meet the needs of customers, however expectations are looking more grim over the next six months as conditions are perceived to worsen due to shortages of supplies and goods, many of which are in limbo off the coast of U.S. shipping ports waiting to be unloaded. Business owners are reducing plans to make capital outlays or increase inventories all things considered.
Market Commentary [10.08.21]
Stocks ticked higher following a disappointing jobs report for the month of September, indicating that expectations of the Fed’s supportive monetary policy may persist. The Nasdaq led indexes, opening 0.3% higher while the S&P 500 improved 0.2% after three consecutive sessions of gains. Following the Federal Reserve’s sentiment that the labor market’s recovery was the key variable driving policy, investors will be focusing on any further comments or releases leading up to the next FOMC meeting in early November that could impact plans to taper stimulus. In Washington, a deal was struck in the Senate for a short-term extension to the debt limit that averting looming default in the near term but could set up another showdown in the coming months. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as energy stocks ticked up on increasing crude prices while China’s SSE reopened 0.5% following the Golden Week holiday and Hong Kong’s HSI added 0.3%.
Bond pricing worsens as treasury yields inch higher overnight. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.577%. Investors were preparing for this morning’s job report as pressure builds and the 10-year moves through the 1.57% mark. Thursdays’ ADP report showed weekly jobless claims falling to 326,000 and their monthly employment change report showed a rise in private jobs by 568,000 as enhanced unemployment benefits came to an end. In this morning’s release, Nonfarm payrolls rose by 194,000 in September, a big miss from the anticipated 500,000 forecast, however the unemployment rate showed substantial decline from 5.2% to 4.8% in September.
Bond pricing worsens as treasury yields inch higher overnight. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.577%. Investors were preparing for this morning’s job report as pressure builds and the 10-year moves through the 1.57% mark. Thursdays’ ADP report showed weekly jobless claims falling to 326,000 and their monthly employment change report showed a rise in private jobs by 568,000 as enhanced unemployment benefits came to an end. In this morning’s release, Nonfarm payrolls rose by 194,000 in September, a big miss from the anticipated 500,000 forecast, however the unemployment rate showed substantial decline from 5.2% to 4.8% in September.
Market Commentary [10.07.21]
Stocks opened higher as prospects of a deal to increase the U.S. debt limit into December temporarily ease concerns about a possible historic government default while investors look forward to tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll data. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising 1.3% while the DJIA and S&P 500 each added 1.1% led by a rebound in technology shares. Oil extended its decline from a seven year high following an announcement from Russian on Wednesday indicating that Moscow was ready to work on stabilizing the global energy market. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 1.4% led by gains in basic resources and automotive sectors while Hong Kong’s HSI climbed 3.1% on rebounding technology companies.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat overnight as the 10 Year Treasury yield sits at 1.524%, just over the market threshold of 1.5%. Initial jobless claims fell to 326,000 in this morning’s release, a decrease of 38,000 from last week. The numbers point toward ongoing improvement in the labor market, something the Fed is keeping a close eye on to begin tapering bond purchases. Continuing claims also fell to 2.7 million as layoffs have continued to ease amid an improving economy.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat overnight as the 10 Year Treasury yield sits at 1.524%, just over the market threshold of 1.5%. Initial jobless claims fell to 326,000 in this morning’s release, a decrease of 38,000 from last week. The numbers point toward ongoing improvement in the labor market, something the Fed is keeping a close eye on to begin tapering bond purchases. Continuing claims also fell to 2.7 million as layoffs have continued to ease amid an improving economy.
Market Commentary [10.06.21]
Stocks opened lower amid surging energy prices as concerns on inflation weigh on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 declined 0.9% after improving over 1% Tuesday following a technology driven selloff while the Nasdaq and DJIA dropped 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. Natural gas prices have surged, nearly doubling in the past six months and adding 17% this month, stoking concerns on winter shortages and potential blockages in supply chains. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe fell 1.2% on travel and retail companies while Hong Kong’s HSI slipped 0.6%.
Bond pricing worsened as treasury yields climbed to 1.55% Wednesday morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. The 10 year yield topped 1.56% last week amid inflation and tighter monetary policy concerns. ADP releases its monthly jobs report at 8:15 am ET. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for September is then due out at 8:30am ET Friday. The Fed is waiting for continued labor market improvement as a condition to taper bond purchases later this year. The Fed mentioned that it could soon begin pulling back in its meeting last month. Economists are looking for a reading of 425,000 job adds in September after a reading of 374,000 in August.
Bond pricing worsened as treasury yields climbed to 1.55% Wednesday morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. The 10 year yield topped 1.56% last week amid inflation and tighter monetary policy concerns. ADP releases its monthly jobs report at 8:15 am ET. The closely watched nonfarm payrolls report for September is then due out at 8:30am ET Friday. The Fed is waiting for continued labor market improvement as a condition to taper bond purchases later this year. The Fed mentioned that it could soon begin pulling back in its meeting last month. Economists are looking for a reading of 425,000 job adds in September after a reading of 374,000 in August.
Market Commentary [10.05.21]
Stocks opened higher following a selloff of large technology shares as oil prices reach a seven-year high. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.5% suggesting the sector may pare some losses from Monday while the DJIA and S&P 500 each added 0.4%. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $82.58 a barrel, its highest level since 2018 while West Texas Intermediate advanced 1.4% to its highest price since 2014. Bitcoin gained 2% from Monday’s level, the first time the cryptocurrency exceeded $50,000 in a month. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.6% led by banks and technology companies while Hong Kong’s HSI pared some early losses, improving 0.3%.
Bond pricing declined this morning as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.50%. The U.S. Census Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in August, up $2.9 billion from July. August exports were up $1.0 billion from July, while imports were $4.0 billion more than July. Consumer goods, pharmaceutical preparations, toys, games and sporting goods all led to the increase in imports.
Bond pricing declined this morning as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.50%. The U.S. Census Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in August, up $2.9 billion from July. August exports were up $1.0 billion from July, while imports were $4.0 billion more than July. Consumer goods, pharmaceutical preparations, toys, games and sporting goods all led to the increase in imports.
Market Commentary [10.04.21]
Stocks ticked lower as global supply constraints and concerns on energy weigh on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq led indexes, slipping 0.5% while the S&P 500 was little changed after closing 2.2% down last week. Oil prices continue to rise amid mixed views on whether OPEC+ members will consider boosting output more than planned with West Texas Intermediate crude adding 1.7% ahead of the alliance’s Monday meeting. In Washington, negotiations continue in Congress as lawmakers debate the debt ceiling as well as the next spending package and potential scaling back to garner more support on the bill. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.3% while Hong Kong’s HSI fell 2.2% and markets in mainland China are closed until Friday for a holiday.
Bond pricing moved lower as treasury yields inch higher to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.479%. The yield ran to 1.56% as investors became more concerned with inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy before pulling back Friday. Continued focus remains on unemployment data with the ADP employment report on Wednesday and nonfarm payroll report due out Friday of this week. Economists are expecting roughly 475,000 job adds last month and an unemployment rate of 5.1%, slightly down from last month’s reading of 5.2%.
Bond pricing moved lower as treasury yields inch higher to start the week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.479%. The yield ran to 1.56% as investors became more concerned with inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy before pulling back Friday. Continued focus remains on unemployment data with the ADP employment report on Wednesday and nonfarm payroll report due out Friday of this week. Economists are expecting roughly 475,000 job adds last month and an unemployment rate of 5.1%, slightly down from last month’s reading of 5.2%.
Market Commentary [10.01.21]
Stocks opened higher following an increase to consumer spending in August at the end of a choppy week of trading. The DJIA led indexes, gaining 0.6% after snapping its five-quarter winning streak on Thursday while the S&P 500 improved 0.5% though could still see its worst week since January. In Washington, negotiations between moderate and progressive Democrats are still ongoing as House Speaker Pelosi will again try for a vote on bipartisan infrastructure legislation. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 slipped 0.1% on banks and energy while markets in China and Hong Kong were closed for holiday.
Bond pricing is improved as treasury yields teeter lower this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Report showed core PCE +3.6 as expected, with core PCE MoM +0.3%. Personal income saw a dip of -0.2% vs +0.3% expected, while personal spending rose 0.8% vs 0.6% expected. Most data was in line with expectations aside from income which was surprisingly lighter than expected. The silver lining being that there is not a sign of remarkably higher inflation, something the Fed is keeping an eye on as they consider tapering bond purchases.
Bond pricing is improved as treasury yields teeter lower this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Report showed core PCE +3.6 as expected, with core PCE MoM +0.3%. Personal income saw a dip of -0.2% vs +0.3% expected, while personal spending rose 0.8% vs 0.6% expected. Most data was in line with expectations aside from income which was surprisingly lighter than expected. The silver lining being that there is not a sign of remarkably higher inflation, something the Fed is keeping an eye on as they consider tapering bond purchases.
Market Commentary [9.30.21]
Stocks opened higher following a tumultuous month indicating the market would edge out earnings for the third quarter. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.5% while the S&P 500 and DJIA each improved 0.4% as the S&P 500 heads toward its sixth consecutive quarter of gains. The recent sell off in technology shares during the high yield environment led to the worst month for the sector since the pandemic-fueled sell off in March 2020. Overseas, China’s SSE added 0.9% while Hong Kong’s slipped 0.4% as concerns over Chinese growth and its property sector loom over global sentiment.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning as treasuries seem to pause or give up a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.531%. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected last week at 351,000, with continuing claims at 2.85 million. Economists are hopeful for a dip with this morning’s release. Also of note Today, Real GDP releases at 8:30am ET and Chicago PMI releases at 9:45 am ET. Four Federal Reserve Presidents are scheduled to speak on the economic outlook between 11am and 2:30am ET Today.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning as treasuries seem to pause or give up a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.531%. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected last week at 351,000, with continuing claims at 2.85 million. Economists are hopeful for a dip with this morning’s release. Also of note Today, Real GDP releases at 8:30am ET and Chicago PMI releases at 9:45 am ET. Four Federal Reserve Presidents are scheduled to speak on the economic outlook between 11am and 2:30am ET Today.
Market Commentary [9.29.21]
Stocks opened higher following the worst selloff since May as higher bond yields weighed on sentiment, predominantly in the technology sector. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.4% and regaining some ground while the S&P 500 added 0.3% after closing down 2% on Tuesday, its worst single day performance in four months. Oil prices fell 0.8% following a three year high as analysts view its recent rally having a significant impact on inflation, contributing to higher yields which spurred investors to move from shares of fast-growing tech companies to more attractive bonds. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.8% on technology shares and banks while China’s SSE declined 1.8% as China Evergrande improved 15% after agreeing to sell part of its stake in a regional bank to a state-owned Chinese firm for $1.5 billion.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields rebound from yesterday’s highs. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.515%, but topped off at 1.56% yesterday, hitting its highest point since June as investors weigh more on the Fed removing stimulus. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that rising prices could linger for longer than expected. Pending Home Sales is due out at 10am ET. July’s reading showed a 8.5% decline YOY and a second consecutive drop after June’s reading -2%. Economists are expecting a small increase of 0.4% for the month of August as the market appears to have cooled off the highs, but limited supply persists with elevated demand.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields rebound from yesterday’s highs. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.515%, but topped off at 1.56% yesterday, hitting its highest point since June as investors weigh more on the Fed removing stimulus. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that rising prices could linger for longer than expected. Pending Home Sales is due out at 10am ET. July’s reading showed a 8.5% decline YOY and a second consecutive drop after June’s reading -2%. Economists are expecting a small increase of 0.4% for the month of August as the market appears to have cooled off the highs, but limited supply persists with elevated demand.
Market Commentary [9.28.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors look to recalibrate portfolios in preparation for the gradual unwinding of supportive monetary policies used to combat the worst of the pandemic driven downturn. The tech heavy Nasdaq continued to bear the brunt of the stock selloff, sliding 1.1% and putting the index on track for its worst month in a year following a two-day rout. Concerns of inflation pressures and tighter monetary policies pushed bond yields higher, making them more attractive than equities, particularly tech stocks that reached valuations not seen in almost two decades during the past few months.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields launch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.544%. The 10 Year Treasury is now trading at its highest levels since June after steadily increasing from last week. Powell remarked in prepared comments that higher inflation may last longer than anticipated as he prepares to speak before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 am ET. At least half of the Fed’s board are now predicting a rate hike in 2022. The 10 Year Treasury yield still has room to run with highs from March of this year near 1.74%. If economic news is solid this week investors expect a 1.60% or greater close with continued rise to March’s highs. The Home Price Index will be released at 9am this morning, with economists expecting annual home price growth of 20%, near record appreciation that has continued amongst mixed supply and low rates.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields launch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.544%. The 10 Year Treasury is now trading at its highest levels since June after steadily increasing from last week. Powell remarked in prepared comments that higher inflation may last longer than anticipated as he prepares to speak before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 am ET. At least half of the Fed’s board are now predicting a rate hike in 2022. The 10 Year Treasury yield still has room to run with highs from March of this year near 1.74%. If economic news is solid this week investors expect a 1.60% or greater close with continued rise to March’s highs. The Home Price Index will be released at 9am this morning, with economists expecting annual home price growth of 20%, near record appreciation that has continued amongst mixed supply and low rates.
Market Commentary [9.27.21]
Stocks opened mixed as oil prices climb and technology shares slide as bond yields tick up. The DJIA led indexes, adding 0.2% while the tech heavy Nasdaq fell 0.7% following a spike in treasury yields leading to concerns on lofty valuations in a sector that powered the bull market rally. Oil rallied as supply constraints loom amid a global energy crunch with Brent crude gaining nearly 2% and hitting its highest level since October 2018. Overseas, China’s SSE declined 0.8% while Hong Kong’s HSI ticked up 0.1% as shares of Evergrande added 8% though are still down over 80% for the year.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning after treasury yields ran higher last week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. Fed Governor Lael Brainard is due to speak about the economic outlook at 12:50 pm ET Today. Investors are watching as treasuries are poised with upward momentum from last week as the Federal Reserve moves closer to easing off its pandemic based policies. Fed Chairman Powell is due to speak before the U.S. Senate on Tuesday giving investors more potential clues to the Fed’s actions. U.S. Durable goods Orders increased by 1.8% in August from a previous 0.5% increase. The reading was well above market expectations and a notable rebound from last month.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning after treasury yields ran higher last week. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. Fed Governor Lael Brainard is due to speak about the economic outlook at 12:50 pm ET Today. Investors are watching as treasuries are poised with upward momentum from last week as the Federal Reserve moves closer to easing off its pandemic based policies. Fed Chairman Powell is due to speak before the U.S. Senate on Tuesday giving investors more potential clues to the Fed’s actions. U.S. Durable goods Orders increased by 1.8% in August from a previous 0.5% increase. The reading was well above market expectations and a notable rebound from last month.
Market Commentary [9.24.21]
Stocks opened lower as concerns of property giant China Evergrande Group loom over outlooks for global growth. The Nasdaq led indexes, declining 0.7% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.4% after the three major indexes rebounded Thursday, paring losses from earlier in the week. Shares of Evergrande fell over 11% in Hong Kong following a missed deadline on an interest payment to U.S. dollar bondholders without announcement. Bitcoin dropped 7% along with other cryptocurrency prices after China’s central bank declared all cryptocurrency related transactions illegal. Overseas, Hong Kong’s HSI declined 1.3% and China’s SSE retreated 0.8%.
Treasury yields jumped yesterday leaving bond pricing mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.427%. Talk of tapering is putting pressure on treasury yields as we get closer to the end of the year. Fed chair Powell and Fed Presidents Esther George and Loretta Mester are all scheduled to speak this morning. New Home Sales is also scheduled for a 10am ET release. Economists are expecting a rise in new home sales to 720,000, slightly more than last month’s reading at 708,000.
Treasury yields jumped yesterday leaving bond pricing mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.427%. Talk of tapering is putting pressure on treasury yields as we get closer to the end of the year. Fed chair Powell and Fed Presidents Esther George and Loretta Mester are all scheduled to speak this morning. New Home Sales is also scheduled for a 10am ET release. Economists are expecting a rise in new home sales to 720,000, slightly more than last month’s reading at 708,000.
Market Commentary [9.23.21]
Stocks opened higher following September’s FOMC meeting as fears of the collapse of Evergrande appear to temporarily ease. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.6% while the S&P 500 added 0.4% after both recorded their largest one-day gains since July. On Wednesday the Fed signaled that it’s on track to start scaling back asset purchases by the end of the year though also left the door open to extend accommodative policies if necessary. New projections released after the two-day policy meeting indicate that half of the 18 officials expect to raise interest rates by the end of 2022. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe rose 0.8%, recovering losses stoked earlier in the week by China’s property sector crackdown while Hong Kong’s HSI climbed 1.2% after taking the brunt of the selling pressure at the start of the week.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed after Jerome Powell spoke Wednesday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.341%. Economic progress for the U.S. since the depths of the pandemic might mean that the central bank can withdraw some of its market support in the coming months. Assuming the economy continues on current trajectory, the Fed also mentioned possibly concluding its bond buying program by the middle of 2022. Initial jobless claims showed 320,000 new claims this past week, down from the prior week reading of 332,000.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed after Jerome Powell spoke Wednesday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.341%. Economic progress for the U.S. since the depths of the pandemic might mean that the central bank can withdraw some of its market support in the coming months. Assuming the economy continues on current trajectory, the Fed also mentioned possibly concluding its bond buying program by the middle of 2022. Initial jobless claims showed 320,000 new claims this past week, down from the prior week reading of 332,000.
Market Commentary [9.22.21]
Stocks opened higher ahead of today’s policy decision from the Federal Reserve as concerns on the Chinese property market appear to somewhat ease. The DJIA led indexes, adding 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.5% spurred by the financial and energy sectors following four consecutive days of losses. Earlier on Wednesday, Evergrande announced it would make an interest payment on time this week, providing some assurance to investors though the largest builder of homes in China is still expected to miss a separate payment on its dollar bonds, widely held by international investors. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 0.8% led by basic resources and energy while China’s SSE reopened 0.4% higher and markets in Hong Kong were closed for a holiday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is 1.336%. Investors are waiting to hear form the Fed later Today at 2pm ET, with all focus on Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30pm ET, following the central bank’s two-day meeting. Investors are looking for crumbs of information on potential tapering which has been presumed to start before year end. Existing Home Sales will also be released this morning at 10am ET. Despite recent declines, existing home sales have increased for the past few months even with higher prices and limited inventory.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is 1.336%. Investors are waiting to hear form the Fed later Today at 2pm ET, with all focus on Jerome Powell's speech at 2:30pm ET, following the central bank’s two-day meeting. Investors are looking for crumbs of information on potential tapering which has been presumed to start before year end. Existing Home Sales will also be released this morning at 10am ET. Despite recent declines, existing home sales have increased for the past few months even with higher prices and limited inventory.
Market Commentary [9.21.21]
Stocks opened higher indicating an improvement in sentiment after concerns on fallout from China’s property sector upheaval rocked markets Monday. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and pared some losses through dip-buyers in the final hour of trading though still posted its largest single-day decline since May. The Stoxx Europe 600 rebounded from its biggest slump in two months, rising 1.1% on energy and industry sector shares. Markets appeared to steady in Honk Kong as the HSI recovered 0.5% by the end of the day following a 1.3% early drop. China Evergrande shares slid another 0.4% totaling an 85% decline year-to-date while shares in some of the other larger Chinese real estate groups rose. Exchanges in mainland China were closed for a public holiday.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning along with treasury yields. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.309%. Investors navigated a market sell off Monday as global pressure released in foreign markets put downward pressure on equities. Investors are awaiting the next Fed announcement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, hoping for more direction or indication of future rate path. New Residential building permits increased 6% in August. Volatility has crept into the housing market in recent months as supply disruptions put upward price pressure on homes and buyers weighed out their options to maintain affordability.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning along with treasury yields. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.309%. Investors navigated a market sell off Monday as global pressure released in foreign markets put downward pressure on equities. Investors are awaiting the next Fed announcement from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, hoping for more direction or indication of future rate path. New Residential building permits increased 6% in August. Volatility has crept into the housing market in recent months as supply disruptions put upward price pressure on homes and buyers weighed out their options to maintain affordability.
Market Commentary [9.20.21]
Stocks opened lower along with global equities as China’s indebted property sector and speculation on the Fed’s policy weight on sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the largest intraday decline since July while the DJIA and Nasdaq followed suit, dropping 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. The Stoxx Europe 600 retreated 2.4%, putting the index on track for its worst single-day decline since October amid losses in raw materials, banks and insurers. Hong Kong listed shares of giant property developer Evergrande Group tumbled more than 10% to their lowest closing level in a decade following the biggest selloff in property stocks in over a year. The Hang Seng Index dropped 3.3%, its lowest close since October while mainland Chinese markets were closed for a holiday.
Bond pricing is mixed this morning with treasury yields slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.318%. Investors are seeking safe havens this morning amidst global sell-off in financial markets. The National Association of Home Builders Survey is due out at 10 am ET and building permits and housings start data is released Tomorrow. The NAHB index fell to 75% in August, leaving investors open to the idea of further decline in the index for September as prices continue to increase and some homebuyers are priced out of the market.
Bond pricing is mixed this morning with treasury yields slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.318%. Investors are seeking safe havens this morning amidst global sell-off in financial markets. The National Association of Home Builders Survey is due out at 10 am ET and building permits and housings start data is released Tomorrow. The NAHB index fell to 75% in August, leaving investors open to the idea of further decline in the index for September as prices continue to increase and some homebuyers are priced out of the market.
Market Commentary [9.17.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors anticipate fresh data on consumer sentiment following a week of mixed economic releases. The Nasdaq led indexes, slipping 0.2% while the S&P 500 and DJIA each declined within 0.1%. Options and futures are set to expire today, a quarterly event known as quadruple witching which has been associated with increased volatility and higher trading volumes. Oil prices retreated 0.2% after five consecutive days of gains and the benchmark is still up more than 3% for the week. Overseas, China’s SSE improved 0.2% though the index is down more than 2% for the week.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.345%. Retail sales rose 0.7% on August versus an estimated 0.8% fall. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in above forecast at 332,000. The University of Michigan is set to release its preliminary consumer and inflation expectations data for September at 10 am ET. Overall, mixed releases have pushed treasury yields slightly higher this week.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields continue to inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.345%. Retail sales rose 0.7% on August versus an estimated 0.8% fall. At the same time, initial jobless claims came in above forecast at 332,000. The University of Michigan is set to release its preliminary consumer and inflation expectations data for September at 10 am ET. Overall, mixed releases have pushed treasury yields slightly higher this week.
Market Commentary [9.16.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors assess an unexpected rise in U.S. retail against a small increase in jobless claims from the previous week. The DJIA led indexes, ticking 0.2% higher while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.8% on travel and leisure companies while indexes continue to contract in China and Hong Kong where concerns on an economic slowdown and issues for giant developer China Evergrande Group weigh on sentiment. Tighter restrictions and increased scrutiny on video games and casinos are also components of China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI sliding 1.3% and 1.5% respectively.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.336%. Retail sales saw an increase of 0.7% for the month against an expected decline of 0.8%. sending treasury yields upward. Weekly jobless claims increased to 332,000 for the week ended Sept. 11, slightly above expected at 320,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.67 million from 2.85 million in the last reading. The Fed continues to monitor labor market conditions as a precursor to tapering asset purchases.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.336%. Retail sales saw an increase of 0.7% for the month against an expected decline of 0.8%. sending treasury yields upward. Weekly jobless claims increased to 332,000 for the week ended Sept. 11, slightly above expected at 320,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.67 million from 2.85 million in the last reading. The Fed continues to monitor labor market conditions as a precursor to tapering asset purchases.
Market Commentary [9.15.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors review new data on U.S. industrial production released earlier this morning. The Nasdaq led indexes, adding 0.3% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% on energy and materials after another decline on Tuesday following last week’s streak of losses. Shares of casino companies extended their slide following Macau government officials stating they would tighten regulations on operators. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.4%, led lower by retail shares while indexes in mainland China and Hong Kong fell after a range of economic indicators showed a pull back in August as covid restrictions and increased scrutiny on property and gaming regulations hit consumer spending.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.287%. Core CPI came in cooler than expected Yesterday giving investors pause and causing a dip in treasury yields. Import prices also fell according to the release this morning, marking the first drop in 10 months. The decline was attributed mostly to lower cost of foreign oil and industrial supplies. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase in import costs, but instead there was a 0.3% drop.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.287%. Core CPI came in cooler than expected Yesterday giving investors pause and causing a dip in treasury yields. Import prices also fell according to the release this morning, marking the first drop in 10 months. The decline was attributed mostly to lower cost of foreign oil and industrial supplies. Economists had forecast a 0.3% increase in import costs, but instead there was a 0.3% drop.
Market Commentary [9.14.21]
Stocks opened higher as fresh data shows that consumer prices increased less than projected in August, an indication that pressure on inflation may be slowing. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, gaining 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.4% on technology and energy sector shares. Brent crude continues its advance, exceeding $74 a barrel as supply outages in Gulf of Mexico and OPEC raising its forecast for global demand boost prices. Overseas, Asian stock indexes closed on a mixed note with China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI declining 1.4% and 1.2% respectively while Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed at the highest level since 1990.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.343%. The NFIB small business index increased to 100.1 in August from 99.7 in July, above the level expected by economists. While the index increased for August, it was noted that small business owners were losing confidence in the strength of future business conditions. Labor shortages continue to hamper small businesses along with managing supply chain disruptions against steady demand. Close to 50% of business owners stated that they could not fill current job openings, something not seen in roughly 48 years.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.343%. The NFIB small business index increased to 100.1 in August from 99.7 in July, above the level expected by economists. While the index increased for August, it was noted that small business owners were losing confidence in the strength of future business conditions. Labor shortages continue to hamper small businesses along with managing supply chain disruptions against steady demand. Close to 50% of business owners stated that they could not fill current job openings, something not seen in roughly 48 years.
Market Commentary [9.13.21]
Stocks opened higher following Friday’s broad pullback on investor concerns of volatility this fall. The S&P 500 added 0.7% after five consecutive days of declines, its worst weekly performance since February while the DJIA and Nasdaq advanced 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Crude oil extended a rally to a six-week high as OPEC predicts strong demand due to rising global fuel consumption and output disruptions following Hurricane Ida. In Washington, President Biden’s $3.5 trillion tax and spending plans face scrutiny as some doubt the timeline for pushing the agenda through Congress and if proposed tax rates may need to be compromised to increase the chances of the package passing.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.329%. After the producer price index rose slightly more than expected Friday, investors will now shift for more inflationary signs in the consumer price index Tuesday. Economists are expecting the reading to show a jump of roughly 5.3% annually in August. The Fed continues to keep a close eye on both inflation and the jobs market, with its next 2 day policy meeting scheduled for Sept 21. Some feel that talk of tapering could be pushed back a bit for November.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.329%. After the producer price index rose slightly more than expected Friday, investors will now shift for more inflationary signs in the consumer price index Tuesday. Economists are expecting the reading to show a jump of roughly 5.3% annually in August. The Fed continues to keep a close eye on both inflation and the jobs market, with its next 2 day policy meeting scheduled for Sept 21. Some feel that talk of tapering could be pushed back a bit for November.
Market Commentary [9.10.21]
Stocks opened higher at the end of a choppy week as central banks reaffirm an accommodative stance. The S&P 500 led indexes, gaining 0.5% following four consecutive days of losses, its worst run since June. The Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.2% for the first time in four days after policy makers made clarification that they are calibrating and not tapering emergency support. Metal prices rallied as a phone call between President Biden and China’s Xi Jinping increases hopes of cooling tensions and potential tariff revisions between the two countries.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.324%. Producer inflation accelerated in August as wholesale prices rose a record 8.3% from a year ago. This was the highest reading since November 2010. The producer price index rose 0.7% in August from July’s reading, which was above the Dow Jones estimate. The move shows that inflationary pressures are likely to continue amid other concerns around supply chain issues and shortages of various consumer and producer goods fueled by higher demand. Meat prices, residential natural gas, industrial chemicals, motor vehicles and steel mill products all moved higher in price due to the increase in demand.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.324%. Producer inflation accelerated in August as wholesale prices rose a record 8.3% from a year ago. This was the highest reading since November 2010. The producer price index rose 0.7% in August from July’s reading, which was above the Dow Jones estimate. The move shows that inflationary pressures are likely to continue amid other concerns around supply chain issues and shortages of various consumer and producer goods fueled by higher demand. Meat prices, residential natural gas, industrial chemicals, motor vehicles and steel mill products all moved higher in price due to the increase in demand.
Market Commentary [9.09.21]
Stocks ticked higher while jobless claims reached a new pandemic low, continuing the trend since mid-July despite the rise in delta variant cases. The Nasdaq led indexes, adding 0.3% while the S&P 500 and DJIA started 0.2% higher following three consecutive days of declines. Investor sentiment has waned after the sharp slowdown in hiring and indications of the pace of economic recovery as the pandemic and central banks’ timelines for paring back stimulus programs loom over optimism. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.1% lower after the ECB said it will slow its emergency support but keep policy accommodative. Hong Kong’s HSI fell 2.3%, its biggest one-day drop in six weeks as shares of videogame giants tumble amid China’s ongoing regulatory crackdown.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.329%. Weak employment data and concerns about economic growth due to the spread of the delta Covid variant continue to put pressure on treasuries. Initial jobless claims moved lower in the week ended 9/4 to 310,000 from a revised 345,000 the previous week. Continuing claims have continued to hover around 2.75 million.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.329%. Weak employment data and concerns about economic growth due to the spread of the delta Covid variant continue to put pressure on treasuries. Initial jobless claims moved lower in the week ended 9/4 to 310,000 from a revised 345,000 the previous week. Continuing claims have continued to hover around 2.75 million.
Market Commentary [9.08.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors cautiously assess valuations against the backdrop of increasing delta variant cases and global economic pressures. The Nasdaq led indexes, slipping 0.3% while the S&P 500 declined for a third consecutive day following its record close on 9/2. Analysts are turning cautious on U.S. equities as many investors view valuations as excessive despite limitations elsewhere due to renewed lockdowns and travel curbs. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.9% following a sell off of European stocks ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting on expectations that policy makers will review scaling back asset purchases.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.351%. The U.S. Labor Dept is due to release the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Friday’s job report missed the mark with payrolls increasing by 235,000 in August vs forecast of 720,000 new jobs. The Fed has focused on the labor market as a final catalyst to begin bond tapering. Economists are expecting 10.1 million jobs for the Labor Dept’s July reading.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.351%. The U.S. Labor Dept is due to release the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Friday’s job report missed the mark with payrolls increasing by 235,000 in August vs forecast of 720,000 new jobs. The Fed has focused on the labor market as a final catalyst to begin bond tapering. Economists are expecting 10.1 million jobs for the Labor Dept’s July reading.
Market Commentary [9.07.21]
Stocks opened lower following the extended holiday weekend as investors speculate the timeline for the Fed’s scaling back of easy money policies after a weak jobs report on Friday. The DJIA led indexes, retreating 0.4% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. New data shows that Chinese exports grew faster than estimated in August despite concerns on pandemic related restrictions on coastal ports and supply-chain bottlenecks. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.4% as investors anticipate the ECB’s Thursday meeting where the central bank will consider the timeline for dialing down its own emergency stimulus.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.371%. The market seems to have shrugged off Friday’s disappointing jobs report, with the weaker data tempering expectations that the Fed will soon taper it bond buying program. There are no economic releases Today, however there are a number of t-bill auctions scheduled. Home purchase demand remains stable heading into the fall with sales above pre-pandemic levels and gradually improving inventory. These factors will likely lead to improved home price pressures the remainder of this year. 30 year fxd rates are averaging 2.87% and 15 year fxd rates are averaging 2.18% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey as of 9/2/21.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.371%. The market seems to have shrugged off Friday’s disappointing jobs report, with the weaker data tempering expectations that the Fed will soon taper it bond buying program. There are no economic releases Today, however there are a number of t-bill auctions scheduled. Home purchase demand remains stable heading into the fall with sales above pre-pandemic levels and gradually improving inventory. These factors will likely lead to improved home price pressures the remainder of this year. 30 year fxd rates are averaging 2.87% and 15 year fxd rates are averaging 2.18% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey as of 9/2/21.
Market Commentary [9.03.21]
Stocks opened lower following a significant slowdown in hiring during August in the latest U.S. jobs report. The DJIA led indexes, declining 0.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. Analysts and money managers are now speculating the weak job report’s impact on the Fed’s timeline to taper by the end of the year. Data on activity in the services sector for August will be released later today with the Institute for Supply Management and IHS Markit each releasing reports later today. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe fell 0.9% while China’s SSE slipped 0.4% and Hong Kong’s HSI retreated 0.7%.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields tick upwards. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.324%. The U.S. economy added jobs back at a slower pace in August. There were 235,000 job adds vs an expected 733,000. The unemployment rate now sits at 5.2% as expected, down from July’s reading of 5.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% month over month and 4.3% year over year, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and 3.9% relative. August marks 8 straight months of net job growth bringing total employment closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields tick upwards. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.324%. The U.S. economy added jobs back at a slower pace in August. There were 235,000 job adds vs an expected 733,000. The unemployment rate now sits at 5.2% as expected, down from July’s reading of 5.4%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% month over month and 4.3% year over year, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and 3.9% relative. August marks 8 straight months of net job growth bringing total employment closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Market Commentary [9.02.21]
Stocks opened higher ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report as applications for unemployment benefits hit a new pandemic low last week. Major indexes each improved nearly 0.4% with the S&P 500 trading near a new record. After the labor market was deemed pivotal to policy by the Fed last week, investors will parse Friday’s data for indications on the central bank’s timeline to start tapering its bond purchases. In commodities, oil prices ticked up following OPEC and its allies agreeing to continue increasing oil production. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.3% while China’s SSE advanced 0.8% and Hong Kong’s HSI added 0.2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.289%. Initial jobless claims dropped to a new low since March 2020 last week as employers continue to seek out workers to fill open positions. Initial claims came in at 340,000 vs 345,000 expected. Continuing claims were 2.748 million vs 2.808 million expected. The trajectory has improved alongside broadening vaccinations and business reopenings. Federal aid has kept some on the sidelines, however most all pandemic programs expire Sept 6th in the roughly two dozen states still offering them.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.289%. Initial jobless claims dropped to a new low since March 2020 last week as employers continue to seek out workers to fill open positions. Initial claims came in at 340,000 vs 345,000 expected. Continuing claims were 2.748 million vs 2.808 million expected. The trajectory has improved alongside broadening vaccinations and business reopenings. Federal aid has kept some on the sidelines, however most all pandemic programs expire Sept 6th in the roughly two dozen states still offering them.
Market Commentary [9.01.21]
Stocks ticked higher as investors look forward to fresh manufacturing data from the Institute for Supply Management to be released later this morning. The Nasdaq led indexes, adding 0.4% while the S&P 500 improved 0.2% following its seventh straight month of gains and ninth out of the tenth past months. A survey of purchasing managers at factories is expected to indicate a slower pace in August than in July as analysts speculate the impact of the delta variant on economic expansion. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced 0.5% while China’s SSE gained 0.7% and Hong Kong’s HSI added 0.6%.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.304%. The Case Shiller Home Price Index released Yesterday showed home prices rose 18.6% annually in June, up again from a 16.8% increase in May. Prices are now 41% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006. Prices continue to surge on strong demand and persistent low housing inventory. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle continue to report the strongest price increases of the 20 city index, increasing 29.3%, 27.1% and 25% respectively year over year. According to Ally Home data, 45% of buyers say they have delayed purchasing a home due to market conditions, with 29% citing high prices and 20% indicating that homes sell too quickly as factors in this delay.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.304%. The Case Shiller Home Price Index released Yesterday showed home prices rose 18.6% annually in June, up again from a 16.8% increase in May. Prices are now 41% higher than their last peak during the housing boom in 2006. Prices continue to surge on strong demand and persistent low housing inventory. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle continue to report the strongest price increases of the 20 city index, increasing 29.3%, 27.1% and 25% respectively year over year. According to Ally Home data, 45% of buyers say they have delayed purchasing a home due to market conditions, with 29% citing high prices and 20% indicating that homes sell too quickly as factors in this delay.
Market Commentary [8.31.21]
Stocks edged lower despite their trajectory for a seventh straight monthly advance, the longest streak since January 2018. The S&P 500 was little changed following its 53rd record closing of the year and 12th in August while the DJIA and Nasdaq each slipped 0.1%. Equities have climbed after Fed Chairman Powell’s reminder that the central bank’s timeline for scaling back on bond purchases would not have bearing on subsequent decisions to raise interest rates, providing some cushion for the market against potential shock factors. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.2% while Hong Kong’s HSI advanced 1.3% and China’s SSE improved 0.5%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat as investors eye unemployment data due out Friday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.295%. The Fed has made it clear that employment is a key metric they are watching to be able to taper bond purchases. Continued improvement in the labor market could lead to tapering as early as the 4th quarter. The ADP employment report saw private businesses in the U.S. hiring 330,000 workers in July, well below expectations of 695,000 job adds. This report adds signs to additional slowdown in the labor market recovery as COVID-19 cases surge across the country. Scarce raw materials continue to plague many businesses as well.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat as investors eye unemployment data due out Friday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.295%. The Fed has made it clear that employment is a key metric they are watching to be able to taper bond purchases. Continued improvement in the labor market could lead to tapering as early as the 4th quarter. The ADP employment report saw private businesses in the U.S. hiring 330,000 workers in July, well below expectations of 695,000 job adds. This report adds signs to additional slowdown in the labor market recovery as COVID-19 cases surge across the country. Scarce raw materials continue to plague many businesses as well.
Market Commentary [8.30.21]
Stocks edged higher following record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Friday as sentiment from Fed Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech remains confident that this year’s inflation surge will prove temporary. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.3% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and DJIA was little changed. In commodities, Brent crude modestly improved following an 11.5% jump in pricing last week ahead of Hurricane Ida’s landfall in Louisiana on Sunday. Offshore producers closed wells that pump over 90% of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico’s output ahead of the storm. Overseas, China’s SSE ticked up 0.2% while Hong Kong’s HSI gained 0.5%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning on little news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.304%. Pending home sales is due out at 10am ET. Last month’s reading saw a 1.9% yoy decline, the first drop in over 4 months, mainly due to rising prices. While buyers are still in the market, record-high prices are causing some to sit on the sidelines. July’s data will be interesting as it will either show continued decline due to price appreciation or a slight rebound as the market might become more favorable in terms of inventory and pricing.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning on little news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.304%. Pending home sales is due out at 10am ET. Last month’s reading saw a 1.9% yoy decline, the first drop in over 4 months, mainly due to rising prices. While buyers are still in the market, record-high prices are causing some to sit on the sidelines. July’s data will be interesting as it will either show continued decline due to price appreciation or a slight rebound as the market might become more favorable in terms of inventory and pricing.
Market Commentary [8.27.21]
Stocks opened higher as investors anticipate commentary from Fed Chairman Powell and indications on the central bank’s timeline to scale back its easy money policy. The three major indexes each improved by 0.2% following a retreat on Thursday. In commodities, oil continues to extend a rebound due to declining stockpiles in the U.S. and increased transportation activity as Brent crude adds nearly 2% to over $71.50 a barrel. Overseas, China’s SSE advanced 0.6% while Hong Kong’s HSI slipped 0.1% lower and the Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields inched lower overnight. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yields is currently 1.342%. Personal income rose 1.1 percent in July, beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. The increase reflected increases in government social benefits and compensation of employees. Consumer spending came in on target with a 0.3% increase in July. Investors will be tuned in at 10am ET as Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Recent economic releases have shown improvement with employment, which has lagged post-shutdown. This seems to be a final measure that the Fed is watching in order to look at tapering, with many believing that tapering could come by end of year.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields inched lower overnight. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yields is currently 1.342%. Personal income rose 1.1 percent in July, beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. The increase reflected increases in government social benefits and compensation of employees. Consumer spending came in on target with a 0.3% increase in July. Investors will be tuned in at 10am ET as Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Recent economic releases have shown improvement with employment, which has lagged post-shutdown. This seems to be a final measure that the Fed is watching in order to look at tapering, with many believing that tapering could come by end of year.
Market Commentary [8.26.21]
Stocks were little changed as focus turns to Fed officials gathering at the Jackson Hole symposium. The DJIA led indexes, ticking up 0.1% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each slipped by less than 0.1%, suggesting a potential pause in their recent rallies. Leading up to Chairman Powell’s speech on Friday, non-voting members of the FOMC have already made hawkish comments, indicating that the Fed should start tapering its asset purchase program. Overseas, China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI each retreated over 1%, snapping a three day rally for technology shares after a number of firms did not meet investor targets.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increased slightly overnight. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.361%. Jobless claims are now near their lowest level since March 2020, marking sustained improvement in the labor market despite some unknown variables with the delta variant and some worker shortages. Initial claims came in at 353,000 vs 250,000 expected. Continuing claims are at 2.862 million, slightly above the 2.772 million expected. The Fed is watching closely as claims remain above the pre-pandemic level of around 200,000 a week. As of the week ended August 7, about 12 million Americans were claiming benefits of all forms.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increased slightly overnight. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.361%. Jobless claims are now near their lowest level since March 2020, marking sustained improvement in the labor market despite some unknown variables with the delta variant and some worker shortages. Initial claims came in at 353,000 vs 250,000 expected. Continuing claims are at 2.862 million, slightly above the 2.772 million expected. The Fed is watching closely as claims remain above the pre-pandemic level of around 200,000 a week. As of the week ended August 7, about 12 million Americans were claiming benefits of all forms.
Market Commentary [8.25.21]
Stocks were mixed as investors look forward to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium starting on Thursday. The Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.3% after closing above 15000 for the first time on Tuesday while the S&P 500 edged higher following another record close in 2021. Overseas, European stocks were steady along with U.S. equities ticking up 0.1% while in Asia, China’s SSE improved 0.7% and Hong Kong’s HSI declined 0.1% as technology shares struggled to extend their rally into a third day.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.304%. There are no major economic releases out Today, however investors are queued in to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Many are thinking that the Fed may start tapering talks as we move closer to the end of the year. Rates have remained low throughout August as treasury yields move lower. The average 30-YR Fxd rate was 2.86% and the average 15-Yr Fxd rate was 2.16% from Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 8/19/21.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.304%. There are no major economic releases out Today, however investors are queued in to the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Many are thinking that the Fed may start tapering talks as we move closer to the end of the year. Rates have remained low throughout August as treasury yields move lower. The average 30-YR Fxd rate was 2.86% and the average 15-Yr Fxd rate was 2.16% from Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 8/19/21.
Market Commentary [8.24.21]
Stocks ticked higher following new manufacturing data indicating continued growth despite at a slower pace than last month’s levels. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.2% while the S&P 500 edged higher after closing at its second-highest level ever on Monday. CrowdStrike Holdings rose 5% following an announcement from Nasdaq that it would be listed on its Nasdaq-100 index on Thursday. In commodities, oil markets continue to rebound with the WTI crude oil advancing over 5% and above $66 a barrel.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.267%. Yields rose slightly on the new that U.S. regulators granted the Pfizer vaccine full approval, potentially aiding the economic recovery as recent data shows a slowdown in consumer spending and sentiment amid the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. New Home Sales will be released at 10am ET. June saw a continued decline of home sales to a seasonally adjusted rate of 676,000. High prices have continued to weigh on buyer’s affordability. The median sales price increased to $361,800 from $341,100 a year earlier. There were 353,000 homes on the market in June.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.267%. Yields rose slightly on the new that U.S. regulators granted the Pfizer vaccine full approval, potentially aiding the economic recovery as recent data shows a slowdown in consumer spending and sentiment amid the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. New Home Sales will be released at 10am ET. June saw a continued decline of home sales to a seasonally adjusted rate of 676,000. High prices have continued to weigh on buyer’s affordability. The median sales price increased to $361,800 from $341,100 a year earlier. There were 353,000 homes on the market in June.
Market Commentary [8.23.21]
Stocks opened higher as investors take advantage of last week’s selloff in anticipation of new manufacturing and services data later today. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.5% while the S&P 500 improved 0.4% from a rebound that started late last week. The FDA is expected to grant full approval to Covid-19 vaccines developed by Pfizer and BioTech this week as concerns loom over the delta variant and its potential impact on the global economic recovery. Bitcoin rose 3% from Friday’s level, exceeding $50,000 for the first time since May. Overseas markets were up with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.5% and China’s SSE and Hong Kong’s HSI each advancing over 1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning after the weekend. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.268%. Existing Home Sales will be released at 10am ET. June’s release saw an annualized 5.86 million in existing home sales. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs are also due out this morning at 9:45am ET. Home prices have remained high due to tight inventory conditions, however supply has begin to modestly improve in recent months due to more housing starts and existing homeowners listing their homes. May saw an annualized rate of 5.78 million, a low not seen in some time. July rebounded slightly higher, and economists are expecting roughly the same level for the July release.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning after the weekend. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.268%. Existing Home Sales will be released at 10am ET. June’s release saw an annualized 5.86 million in existing home sales. Markit manufacturing and services PMIs are also due out this morning at 9:45am ET. Home prices have remained high due to tight inventory conditions, however supply has begin to modestly improve in recent months due to more housing starts and existing homeowners listing their homes. May saw an annualized rate of 5.78 million, a low not seen in some time. July rebounded slightly higher, and economists are expecting roughly the same level for the July release.
Market Commentary [8.20.21]
Stocks ticked higher, led by technology shares as investors look to options expiring today as potential fuel to market volatility. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.3% while the S&P 500 and DJIA were little changed. With August already recognized as a historically volatile month for markets, the Fed’s potential tapering plans coupled with rising cases of the delta variant are weighing heavily on investor sentiment. Overseas, China’s SSE closed 1.1% lower and Hong Kong’s HSI declined 1.8%, ending a tumultuous week as regulators ramped up scrutiny on internet and technology companies.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.24%. Continued concerns over the spread of the delta variant and discussion from the Fed of tapering bond purchases remain at the forefront of investors minds Today with no economic releases scheduled. Next week will bring new and existing home sales, GDP, and personal income, consumer spending as well as the core PCE price index. Investors will be looking for continued inflationary signals that could move up the Fed’s timeline to taper bond purchases on an ongoing basis. Rates have remained low as yields remain near recent lows. Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey shows the average 30 year fixed at 2.86% while the average 15 year fixed is at 2.16%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.24%. Continued concerns over the spread of the delta variant and discussion from the Fed of tapering bond purchases remain at the forefront of investors minds Today with no economic releases scheduled. Next week will bring new and existing home sales, GDP, and personal income, consumer spending as well as the core PCE price index. Investors will be looking for continued inflationary signals that could move up the Fed’s timeline to taper bond purchases on an ongoing basis. Rates have remained low as yields remain near recent lows. Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey shows the average 30 year fixed at 2.86% while the average 15 year fixed is at 2.16%.
Market Commentary [8.19.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors assess signals from the Fed that asset purchases are likely to slow this year. The DJIA led indexes, declining 0.7% while the S&P is down for a third day, opening 0.6% lower following a 1.1% drop Wednesday, its biggest retreat in a month. In commodities, Brent-crude fell 2.7% putting the benchmark on course for its lowest close since May while U.S. copper also fell 2.7% and is on track for its lowest settlement since March. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 lost nearly 2% led by shares in retail and oil and gas companies. Regulators in China are continuing efforts on tech-sector reforms as several technology stocks sold off and the SSE fell 0.6% by close of trading
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields capitulate lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.243%. The latest Federal Reserve minutes show that the central bank is in preparation to taper bond purchases before the end of this year. Most participants noted that if the economy were to “evolve broadly as they anticipated”, it would be appropriate to reduce the pace of asset purchases this year. Some concern still lingers over the employment situation which still needs “substantial further progress” in the eyes of the Fed. Initial jobless claims released this morning showed 348,000 new claims, less than the 364,000 expected. Continuing claims remain at 2.920 million. Jobless claims have posted four straight weeks of decline and remain below the psychological 400,000 level, however claims still remain elevated relative to before the pandemic when claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week through 2019. As the employment situation continues to post improvement the Fed will undoubtedly remain on its prescribed course to taper.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields capitulate lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.243%. The latest Federal Reserve minutes show that the central bank is in preparation to taper bond purchases before the end of this year. Most participants noted that if the economy were to “evolve broadly as they anticipated”, it would be appropriate to reduce the pace of asset purchases this year. Some concern still lingers over the employment situation which still needs “substantial further progress” in the eyes of the Fed. Initial jobless claims released this morning showed 348,000 new claims, less than the 364,000 expected. Continuing claims remain at 2.920 million. Jobless claims have posted four straight weeks of decline and remain below the psychological 400,000 level, however claims still remain elevated relative to before the pandemic when claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week through 2019. As the employment situation continues to post improvement the Fed will undoubtedly remain on its prescribed course to taper.
Market Commentary [8.17.21]
Stocks opened lower on weaker retail sales in July as indexes drop from record highs. The Nasdaq led indexes, declining 0.9% while the S&P 500 and DJIA fell 0.7% and 0.8% respectively, putting them on course to end their five-day winning streaks, the longest for the Dow in nearly four years. Chinese technology stocks are again facing pressure as authorities in Beijing take aim at business practices deemed harmful to consumers and competition by the country’s top market regulator. China’s SSE slid 2% while Hong Kong’s HSI dropped 1.7%.
Bond pricing improved and treasury yields dip on slowed retail sales. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.253%. Retail sales fell 1.1% for the month, worse than the estimate of 0.3% decline. Consumers make up 70% of all activity in the U.S. so retail sales has become a closely watched gauge of overall economic health. It seems many have cut spending with concerns of the delta variant dampening activity. In addition, much of the government stimulus has dried up, which had propelled spending and sales figures in past months.
Bond pricing improved and treasury yields dip on slowed retail sales. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.253%. Retail sales fell 1.1% for the month, worse than the estimate of 0.3% decline. Consumers make up 70% of all activity in the U.S. so retail sales has become a closely watched gauge of overall economic health. It seems many have cut spending with concerns of the delta variant dampening activity. In addition, much of the government stimulus has dried up, which had propelled spending and sales figures in past months.
Market Commentary [8.16.21]
Stocks opened lower from last week’s record closings as delta variant and geopolitical uncertainties weight on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% in early trading following its 48th all-time closing high of 2021 while the DJIA slipped 0.2% after also closing at a record high on Friday. Investors will be looking to Fed Chairman Powell’s town hall on Tuesday as a potential precursor to the Jackson Hole symposium later this month. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.6%, putting the benchmark on course to snap a 10-day winning streak, its longest since 2006.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yields is currently 1.282%. Investors will continue to watch productivity and inflation numbers due out later this week alongside the Fed’s budget balance. Job openings hit a record for the fourth straight month in June, rising to an open 10.1 million jobs, the fourth straight all-time high. Openings far outweighed economists predictions of 9.1 million.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yields is currently 1.282%. Investors will continue to watch productivity and inflation numbers due out later this week alongside the Fed’s budget balance. Job openings hit a record for the fourth straight month in June, rising to an open 10.1 million jobs, the fourth straight all-time high. Openings far outweighed economists predictions of 9.1 million.
Market Commentary [8.13.21]
Stocks edged higher after another round of earnings as major indexes approach the end of the week near record highs. The DJJIA led indexes, improving 0.2% after hitting a record high while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% on communication and health care shares following its 47th all-time closing high of 2021. To this point, 86% of companies listed on the S&P 500 that have filed quarterly reports have exceeded analyst expectations as the index has nearly doubled since pandemic lows during March 2020. Overseas, European stocks are heading toward the longest winning streak in over 20 years, as the Stoxx Europe improved 0.2% and is on track for its tenth consecutive closing record.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.354%. Positive jobs data alongside mixed inflation releases on treasury yields has investors wondering what’s next. Prices of imported goods rose 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since November. Imported fuel prices rose 2.9% in July, down from highs of 5% in the prior two months. Over the past year, the price index for imports has risen 10.2%, down from a high of 11.6% in May.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.354%. Positive jobs data alongside mixed inflation releases on treasury yields has investors wondering what’s next. Prices of imported goods rose 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since November. Imported fuel prices rose 2.9% in July, down from highs of 5% in the prior two months. Over the past year, the price index for imports has risen 10.2%, down from a high of 11.6% in May.
Market Commentary [8.12.21]
Stocks were mixed as investors look toward the final days of second quarter earnings as U.S. labor data continues to improve. The DJIA was little changed in early trading while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% following another record on Wednesday. Disney is expected to report second quarter earnings after markets close along with Airbnb and DoorDash. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 extended its streak of record highs for the ninth session, ticking up 0.1%. In Asia, most major benchmarks declined with China’s SSE ticking down 0.2% and Hong Kong’s HSI slipping 0.5%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.374%. Initial jobless claims totaled 375,000 last week, marking three straight weeks of improved data. Economists were expecting the same number. Continuing claims fell to 2.866 million, the lowest level since mid-March of 2020. Producer prices skyrocketed 7.8% annually in July, the most on record. Supply chain disruptions and material shortages continue to put upward pressure on costs. Nearly three quarters of the increase fell into the services sector as consumers have re-entered the market for travel, leisure, and other service based activities over the summer.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.374%. Initial jobless claims totaled 375,000 last week, marking three straight weeks of improved data. Economists were expecting the same number. Continuing claims fell to 2.866 million, the lowest level since mid-March of 2020. Producer prices skyrocketed 7.8% annually in July, the most on record. Supply chain disruptions and material shortages continue to put upward pressure on costs. Nearly three quarters of the increase fell into the services sector as consumers have re-entered the market for travel, leisure, and other service based activities over the summer.
Market Commentary [8.11.21]
Stocks opened higher after new inflation data indicated that the consumer price index increased in July from last year though is at a cooler pace than its increase from May to June. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.4% in early trading while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% following another record on Tuesday. In Washington, the Senate passed a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint just before 4 a.m., a day after passing a roughly $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package. The early morning vote signals the first step in a difficult process for Democrats to push through the package before next year’s midterm and without GOP support.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.339%. Core inflation showed an increase of 0.3% last month, just shy of economists predictions at 0.4%, and quite a bit lower than June’s reading of 0.9%. The CPI rose 5.4% in July from a year earlier, which was in line with June and matching the largest increase since August 2008. The Fed remains steady in calling the inflation “transitory” believing that prices won’t continue to increase at their existing pace for too long. Still, many investors are becoming concerned with the approach, citing that inflation has likely peaked, potentially signaling a need for more monetary policy.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.339%. Core inflation showed an increase of 0.3% last month, just shy of economists predictions at 0.4%, and quite a bit lower than June’s reading of 0.9%. The CPI rose 5.4% in July from a year earlier, which was in line with June and matching the largest increase since August 2008. The Fed remains steady in calling the inflation “transitory” believing that prices won’t continue to increase at their existing pace for too long. Still, many investors are becoming concerned with the approach, citing that inflation has likely peaked, potentially signaling a need for more monetary policy.
Market Commentary [8.10.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors parse commentary from Fed officials on the central bank’s next move with the U.S. consumer price index for July set to be released on Wednesday. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.2% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.1% after Monday’s drop from an all-time high. In commodities, oil prices recovered some ground from Monday’s slump rising 1.1% to $69.78 a barrel. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed for a seventh day, improving 0.3% on travel and technology while markets in Asia also improved with Hong Kong’s HSI and China’s SSE adding 1.2% and 1% respectively.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.314%. Investors are awaiting release of key inflation data due out Tomorrow and Thursday. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, small business owners are losing confidence in the strength of the economy and expect further slowdown in job creation. Business owners are also reporting supply chain disruptions are having impacts on their business, limiting sales that would take place if they had the ability to acquire more supplies and inventory from supply chains. Overall the index came in at 99.7, a decrease of 2.8 points from the prior month.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.314%. Investors are awaiting release of key inflation data due out Tomorrow and Thursday. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, small business owners are losing confidence in the strength of the economy and expect further slowdown in job creation. Business owners are also reporting supply chain disruptions are having impacts on their business, limiting sales that would take place if they had the ability to acquire more supplies and inventory from supply chains. Overall the index came in at 99.7, a decrease of 2.8 points from the prior month.
Market Commentary [8.09.21]
Stocks opened mixed as a brief slump in commodities raises concerns on the strength and timeline of the economic recovery. The Nasdaq led indexes at the open, improving 0.3% while the S&P 500 edged lower following another record high on Friday. Gold and silver tumbled in early trading before recovering most of the ground lost in what analysts believe was due to appreciation in the dollar following Friday’s strong jobs report and rising bond yields. Gold touched its lowest price since March dropping over 5% from Friday’s close while silver fell 7%, its lowest level since November.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.287%. Investors are looking to the Labor Department’s June job openings and labor turnover survey due out at 10 am ET Today as well as the consumer price index and producer price index, due out Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Many feel that the Fed is still prepared to see higher inflation readings in the interim as part of the economic recovery. The consumer price index has skyrocketed in recent months, hitting 5.4% year over year growth in June. July will be interesting to see if that trend continues further or if the curve flattens.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.287%. Investors are looking to the Labor Department’s June job openings and labor turnover survey due out at 10 am ET Today as well as the consumer price index and producer price index, due out Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Many feel that the Fed is still prepared to see higher inflation readings in the interim as part of the economic recovery. The consumer price index has skyrocketed in recent months, hitting 5.4% year over year growth in June. July will be interesting to see if that trend continues further or if the curve flattens.
Market Commentary [8.06.21]
Stocks opened mixed as U.S. payrolls exceed expectations, providing some insights into the pace of business activity as investors look to the Fed’s timeline on tapering support. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.4% while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% in early trading. Markets continue to grind slowly higher as investors weigh strong second quarter earnings against the delta variant and concerns stemming from China’s regulatory assault on tech companies. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.2% higher on mixed earnings and is on course for its best week in three months.
Bond Pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasuries inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.25%, ahead of the Labor Department’s anticipated jobs report. Economists expected the economy to add 845,000 jobs last month. More importantly though the Fed’s decision to pare back bond buying is hinged on employment data. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4%. Overall improvement for what has been a struggling jobs market in recent months.
Bond Pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasuries inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.25%, ahead of the Labor Department’s anticipated jobs report. Economists expected the economy to add 845,000 jobs last month. More importantly though the Fed’s decision to pare back bond buying is hinged on employment data. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 943,000 in July, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.5 percentage point to 5.4%. Overall improvement for what has been a struggling jobs market in recent months.
Market Commentary [8.05.21]
Stocks edged higher amid mixed earnings reports and a slight decline in U.S. jobless claims. The DJIA led indexes, advancing 0.3% while the S&P 500 improved 0.2% after closing 0.5% lower on Wednesday. Concerns on the speed of the economic rebound have increased as the delta variant and weaker than expected labor data weighs on investor sentiment despite strong earnings results. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% while China’s SSE declined 0.3% and Hong Kong’s HSI closed 0.8% lower.
Bond and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.18%. Initial jobless claims came in at 385,000, very close to expectations and back below the psychological 400k mark. Claims have trended downward but are still well above pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims dropped to 2.93 million vs 3.255 million expected, the first time below 3 million since mid-March 2020. Concerns over the delta variant have increased in recent weeks putting additional pressure on the jobs market and throwing a wrench in many employer’s in-person, return to office plans. Ongoing enhanced federal unemployment support across several states has kept some workers on the sidelines until the start of fall.
Bond and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.18%. Initial jobless claims came in at 385,000, very close to expectations and back below the psychological 400k mark. Claims have trended downward but are still well above pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims dropped to 2.93 million vs 3.255 million expected, the first time below 3 million since mid-March 2020. Concerns over the delta variant have increased in recent weeks putting additional pressure on the jobs market and throwing a wrench in many employer’s in-person, return to office plans. Ongoing enhanced federal unemployment support across several states has kept some workers on the sidelines until the start of fall.
Market Commentary [8.04.21]
Stocks opened lower amid mixed corporate earnings as new data indicates that the private sector added fewer jobs than economist forecasts in July. The DJIA led indexes, declining 0.5% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after a record close on Tuesday. As investors cheer strong earnings and equities near record highs, there is increasing concern that second half earnings and growth will slow down as stocks continue to weather the delta variant and expectations of support from the central bank. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.4% led by technology shares, extending record closings for a second consecutive day.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.131%. Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP Employment Report. Medium and large business saw the bulk of the hiring with 238,000 jobs combined. Service producing jobs lead the way with 318,000 total job adds. The labor market remains uneven in terms of recovery, but overall seems to be making some progress overall. Bottlenecks in hiring have caused some hiccups in the process and new variants of covid have many concerned that there could be additional pressures on the labor market in the coming months.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.131%. Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP Employment Report. Medium and large business saw the bulk of the hiring with 238,000 jobs combined. Service producing jobs lead the way with 318,000 total job adds. The labor market remains uneven in terms of recovery, but overall seems to be making some progress overall. Bottlenecks in hiring have caused some hiccups in the process and new variants of covid have many concerned that there could be additional pressures on the labor market in the coming months.
Market Commentary [8.03.21]
Stocks edged higher as strong corporate earnings stoke optimism that they may continue to grind higher. The S&P 500 and DJIA each improved 0.2% in early trading following muted losses on Monday. Second quarter earnings have been robust for the most part as investors remain optimistic that strong results coupled with continued support from central banks and economic growth indicators could further the trajectory for equities. U.S. listed shares of Chinese companies fell ahead of market open following criticism from a state-owned newspaper on online gaming, increasing concerns of further action from Beijing amid an ongoing technology clampdown.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields fall further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.176%. Manufacturing data showed slower expansion in July than in the previous month. Investors remain concerned about the spread of the delta variant as the seven day average of cases in the U.S. has reach over 72,000, surpassing the peak seen last summer. Factory orders and Core capital goods orders are due out at 10 am ET as well as motor vehicle sales sometime later Today. Economists are expecting a decline in factory orders, after a surge of 1.7% last month. Orders are expected to increase 1% for June.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields fall further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.176%. Manufacturing data showed slower expansion in July than in the previous month. Investors remain concerned about the spread of the delta variant as the seven day average of cases in the U.S. has reach over 72,000, surpassing the peak seen last summer. Factory orders and Core capital goods orders are due out at 10 am ET as well as motor vehicle sales sometime later Today. Economists are expecting a decline in factory orders, after a surge of 1.7% last month. Orders are expected to increase 1% for June.
Market Commentary [8.02.21]
Stocks opened higher as corporate earnings continue to boost investor sentiment. Major indexes climb toward record highs led by the Nasdaq improving 0.6% and the S&P 500 adding 0.5%. Investors cheered strong earnings growth with expectations that consumers will be spending more freely, and companies will be investing and restocking inventories. In Washington, the Senate is heading toward passage of a $550 billion infrastructure bill this week, also lifting global markets. On Sunday, China’s market regulator called for more cooperation with the U.S. on initial public offerings amid a regulatory crackdown causing turbulent weeks of trading in Asian markets. China’s SSE advanced nearly 2% by the close of trading while Hong Kong’s HSI improved over 1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.217%. Inflation and employment indicators are being watched closely by the Fed as nervousness around the delta variant could slow the recovery of the U.S. labor market. Constructions pending is due to be release at 10 am ET this morning along with manufacturing PMI for July at 9:45 am ET. Treasuries have tracked lower over the past few weeks, leading to lower mortgage rates. Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 7/29/21 shows the average 30 year fxd rate at 2.8%, while the average 15 year fxd rate is 2.1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.217%. Inflation and employment indicators are being watched closely by the Fed as nervousness around the delta variant could slow the recovery of the U.S. labor market. Constructions pending is due to be release at 10 am ET this morning along with manufacturing PMI for July at 9:45 am ET. Treasuries have tracked lower over the past few weeks, leading to lower mortgage rates. Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 7/29/21 shows the average 30 year fxd rate at 2.8%, while the average 15 year fxd rate is 2.1%.
Market Commentary [7.30.21]
Stocks opened lower as signs indicate the pace of economic growth may be slowing coupled with lofty expectations on corporate earnings weight on investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1% in early trading while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6% despite the index approaching its sixth straight month of gains. China’s recent crackdown of some if its fastest growing companies to improve competition and security has deeply impacted Chinese, Hong Kong and U.S. markets, erasing billions in combined market value. In Hong Kong, the selloff continued with the HSI dropping 1.3%, adding to a nearly 10% decline in July, its largest since 2018.
Bond pricing improves as treasury yields move slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.241%. Personal income came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in June. Core inflation was also released this morning and came in at 3.5% year over year vs 3.7% expected. This will come as a sigh of relief for markets who have been concerned with inflation. The Fed has taken a temporary stance with inflation thus far, and food and energy prices seem to be temporarily slowing for the month of June. Energy prices are up 24.2% year over year while Food prices are up 0.9%.
Bond pricing improves as treasury yields move slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.241%. Personal income came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in June. Core inflation was also released this morning and came in at 3.5% year over year vs 3.7% expected. This will come as a sigh of relief for markets who have been concerned with inflation. The Fed has taken a temporary stance with inflation thus far, and food and energy prices seem to be temporarily slowing for the month of June. Energy prices are up 24.2% year over year while Food prices are up 0.9%.
Market Commentary [7.29.21]
Stocks opened higher following the Federal Reserve’s latest read on the economy as fresh GDP data indicates strong consumer spending in the second quarter. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.4% after closing down less than 0.1% on Wednesday. U.S. GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter, pushing the economy beyond its pre-pandemic level, underscoring the speed of the recovery since last summer despite falling short of economists’ forecasts of an 8.4% annual rate for that time period. Earnings season continues with Amazon and T-Mobile set to post earnings after markets close. Overseas, China’s SSE regained 1.5% and Hong Kong’s HSI rose 3.3% on advances in the technology sector while the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.5% led by blue-chip earnings.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat after the Fed spoke yesterday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.264%. The Fed noted that progress had been made toward employment and inflation targets, however there is still substantial further progress needed. Some economists believe the Fed could look to announce a reduction in bond purchases as early as September, but more likely by December. Initial claims came in at 400,000 for the week ending 7/24. The total number of claimants is expected to continually decline as federal enhanced unemployment benefits across many states will phase-out by September.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat after the Fed spoke yesterday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.264%. The Fed noted that progress had been made toward employment and inflation targets, however there is still substantial further progress needed. Some economists believe the Fed could look to announce a reduction in bond purchases as early as September, but more likely by December. Initial claims came in at 400,000 for the week ending 7/24. The total number of claimants is expected to continually decline as federal enhanced unemployment benefits across many states will phase-out by September.
Market Commentary [7.28.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision. The tech heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.2% in early trading a day after posting its worst decline in over two months. The market has hovered near all-time highs on strong corporate earnings and easy monetary policies from the central bank, though the delta variant and potential for tighter policies has weighted on investor sentiment. In Hong Kong, markets regained some ground following deep losses from the previous three sessions with the HSI improving 1.5% while China’s SSE slipped 0.6% for its fourth straight day of declines.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hold steady on news from the Fed. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.259%. All eyes are on the Fed decision Today to be released at 2pm ET. Economists are expecting no change in policy and continued comment from Powell reiterating that inflation is transitory. Some continue to be concerned with the delta variant of Covid causing rising hospitalizations in some areas, that could further restrict economic growth in the short run.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hold steady on news from the Fed. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.259%. All eyes are on the Fed decision Today to be released at 2pm ET. Economists are expecting no change in policy and continued comment from Powell reiterating that inflation is transitory. Some continue to be concerned with the delta variant of Covid causing rising hospitalizations in some areas, that could further restrict economic growth in the short run.
Market Commentary [7.27.21]
Stocks opened lower following record highs for the S&P 500 and DJIA as investors anticipate quarterly reports for the largest tech companies later today. The DJIA led indexes, slipping 0.6% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% in early trading after a five-day streak of gains. Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple are set to release second quarter earnings after markets close as investors look for insights on the impacts of lockdowns ending and resource constraints for the technology giants. Overseas, the selloff deepened on concerns of China’s regulatory crackdown in recent days. The SSE declined another 2.5% while Hong Kong’s HSI fell 4.2%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields taper lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.239%. Investors are holding steady ahead of the 2-day Fed meeting with an announcement to follow Tomorrow. Some are concerned that inflation could run higher for longer than the Fed anticipates, and that volatility could be triggered by changes in monetary policy. Home prices continue to move higher as strong demand meets weak supply. Nationally, home prices rose 16.6% in May from a year earlier. This is another new record for growth in the reporting for 30 years. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains. Phoenix saw prices rise 25.9% year over year followed by San Diego at 24.7% and Seattle at 23.4%. Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Seattle and Charlotte all saw their all-time highest annual gains in price.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields taper lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.239%. Investors are holding steady ahead of the 2-day Fed meeting with an announcement to follow Tomorrow. Some are concerned that inflation could run higher for longer than the Fed anticipates, and that volatility could be triggered by changes in monetary policy. Home prices continue to move higher as strong demand meets weak supply. Nationally, home prices rose 16.6% in May from a year earlier. This is another new record for growth in the reporting for 30 years. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains. Phoenix saw prices rise 25.9% year over year followed by San Diego at 24.7% and Seattle at 23.4%. Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Seattle and Charlotte all saw their all-time highest annual gains in price.
Market Commentary [7.26.21]
Stocks edged lower following all-time highs last week as investors prepare for megacap earnings reports this week. The Nasdaq led indexes, slipping 0.2% while the S&P 500 was little changed following an all-time high Friday and DJIA ticked 0.1% lower after the benchmark crossed the 3500 closing milestone for the first time in its history. Cryptocurrencies jumped, with bitcoin rising nearly 20% from its Friday level as investors indicate short positions being liquidated and speculation that Amazon may be looking into digital currencies. Tesla kicks off a group of megacap earnings reports this week including Apple and Microsoft. Overseas, Chinese shares retreated after Beijing announced sweeping reforms of the education tech industry, prompting a sharp selloff and stoking concerns of regulatory risks. The SSE dropped 2.3% while Hong Kong’s HSI lost 4.1% in its worst one-day performance of the year.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.263%. HUD will release new home sales data at 10 am ET this morning. The housing market has been strong, but over the past year prices have skyrocketed, leaving many back on the sidelines in terms of affordability. The Fed meets Wednesday to discuss interest rates with a decision and press conference released Wednesday afternoon. With recent treasury movement rates have declined by roughly 25 bps since the end of June. The average 30 Year Fxd rate is now 2.78%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate is 2.12% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/22/2021.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.263%. HUD will release new home sales data at 10 am ET this morning. The housing market has been strong, but over the past year prices have skyrocketed, leaving many back on the sidelines in terms of affordability. The Fed meets Wednesday to discuss interest rates with a decision and press conference released Wednesday afternoon. With recent treasury movement rates have declined by roughly 25 bps since the end of June. The average 30 Year Fxd rate is now 2.78%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate is 2.12% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/22/2021.
Market Commentary [7.23.21]
Stocks opened higher, pointing toward weekly gains as a strong start to earnings season improves investor confidence. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.5% followed by the S&P 500 adding 0.4%. Nearly 87% of companies listed on the S&P 500 that have reported results so far this season have exceeded Wall Street estimates. Investors are focusing on executives’ sentiment regarding their ability to pass higher input costs to customers versus taking the hit in profit margins which could lead to inflation taking longer to subside. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1% while Hong Kong’s HSI and China’s SSE dropped 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries try to find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.298%. Markit’s July PMI data, is due out at 9:45 ET and should give additional clarity into the state of the U.S. economic recovery. Yields moved downward yesterday after jobless claims data came in higher than expected. Existing home sales saw an increase of 1.4% month over month to an annualized rate of 5.86 million homes in June of 2021, marking the first increase in five months. Supply has started to catch up after months of shortage due to raw material and new housing shortages as well as limited existing housing inventory.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries try to find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.298%. Markit’s July PMI data, is due out at 9:45 ET and should give additional clarity into the state of the U.S. economic recovery. Yields moved downward yesterday after jobless claims data came in higher than expected. Existing home sales saw an increase of 1.4% month over month to an annualized rate of 5.86 million homes in June of 2021, marking the first increase in five months. Supply has started to catch up after months of shortage due to raw material and new housing shortages as well as limited existing housing inventory.
Market Commentary [7.22.21]
Stocks opened mixed following fresh data indicating an unexpected increase in applications for unemployment insurance last week. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.2% while the S&P 500 and DJIA were little changed. In recent days, equities have erased most of their losses from Monday’s sharp selloff, returning to within 1% of their all-time highs. Strong earnings results continue to improve investor confidence that recovery can continue with the majority of companies exceeding expectations. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe rose 0.6% while Hong Kong’s HSI gained 1.8% and China’s SSE improved 0.3%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.278%. Initial jobless claims rose to 419,000 last week, back above the 400,000 mark that economists have kept a keen eye on. Economists were expecting 350,000 claims over the period. Continuing claims dropped to 3.24 million, a new pandemic low. This was the highest reading for initial jobless claims since May 15th, with many expecting the jobs picture would have improved further as unemployment benefits end and companies have gotten more aggressive in filling vacant positions. Restaurant and retail businesses make up the highest portion of new jobs, but many are still concerned with delta Covid variants that could slow growth in the near future..
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.278%. Initial jobless claims rose to 419,000 last week, back above the 400,000 mark that economists have kept a keen eye on. Economists were expecting 350,000 claims over the period. Continuing claims dropped to 3.24 million, a new pandemic low. This was the highest reading for initial jobless claims since May 15th, with many expecting the jobs picture would have improved further as unemployment benefits end and companies have gotten more aggressive in filling vacant positions. Restaurant and retail businesses make up the highest portion of new jobs, but many are still concerned with delta Covid variants that could slow growth in the near future..
Market Commentary [7.21.21]
Stocks opened higher as the DJIA extends its rebound following its worst day of 2021 on Monday. The S&P 500 improved 0.3% after its biggest single day gain since March, nearly unwinding its steep drop from Monday. Investors continue to assess second quarter earnings reports with over 85% of companies reporting results listed on the S&P 500 exceeding analysts estimates to this point. As corporate earnings take some focus from coronavirus anxiety, investor sentiment remains cautious that variants of the virus may take steam out of the global economic rebound, leading to potential volatility the rest of the summer. Overseas, markets improved with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 1.4% and China’s SSE adding 0.7%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.268%. There are no major economic releases Today. An auction is scheduled later Today for $30 billion worth of 119 day bills and $24 billion worth of 20-year bonds. On an otherwise quiet market day, treasury yields have bounced off yesterday’s lows. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey, the average 30 year fixed was 2.88% and the average 15 year fixed rate was 2.22% as of 7/15/21. Recent declines in treasury yields have moved mortgage rates slightly lower.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.268%. There are no major economic releases Today. An auction is scheduled later Today for $30 billion worth of 119 day bills and $24 billion worth of 20-year bonds. On an otherwise quiet market day, treasury yields have bounced off yesterday’s lows. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey, the average 30 year fixed was 2.88% and the average 15 year fixed rate was 2.22% as of 7/15/21. Recent declines in treasury yields have moved mortgage rates slightly lower.
Market Commentary [7.20.21]
Stocks opened lower amid increased anxiety over the delta variant as investors speculate the impact on near term re-openings and travel. The DJIA led indexes, dropping 1.8% as commodities, financials and industrial shares weigh on all major groups. Increasing cases of the coronavirus in several parts of the world, including the U.K. have lowered the level of investors’ expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Treasury yields are the lowest since February, an indication that investors are seeking shelter in the safety government bonds among other safe-haven assets. Airlines and oil companies were among the worst performers with United Airlines and American Airlines each declining near 5% while Brent crude fell 4.5%. European shares headed for their biggest slide of the year, the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 2.5%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Market Commentary [7.19.21]
Stocks opened lower amid increased anxiety over the delta variant as investors speculate the impact on near term re-openings and travel. The DJIA led indexes, dropping 1.8% as commodities, financials and industrial shares weigh on all major groups. Increasing cases of the coronavirus in several parts of the world, including the U.K. have lowered the level of investors’ expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Treasury yields are the lowest since February, an indication that investors are seeking shelter in the safety government bonds among other safe-haven assets. Airlines and oil companies were among the worst performers with United Airlines and American Airlines each declining near 5% while Brent crude fell 4.5%. European shares headed for their biggest slide of the year, the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 2.5%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Market Commentary [7.16.21]
Stocks ticked higher following improved retail data as investors continue to assess second quarter earnings reports. The Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.4% and pointing to gains in technology while the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on tech and consumer discretionary shares. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell defended the central bank’s accommodative stance that the post-lockdown surge in inflation still does not warrant the tapering of stimulus, underscoring an increasing divergence among global central banks that are turning to hawkish stances.
Bond pricing lowered as the 10-year Treasury note ticked up 1.32%, reversing course after two consecutive days of decline. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, opposed to economists’ expectations for another decrease following May’s 1.3% drop. Retail spending including stores, restaurants and online slowed in late spring after a surge in spending earlier in the year prompted by federal coronavirus aid to households. June’s increase marks a pickup in consumer spending on products and services associated with resumption of activity post Covid-19 restrictions. Meanwhile, auto sales fell 2%, the largest impediment on overall retail sales which would have risen 1.3% during the same period.
Bond pricing lowered as the 10-year Treasury note ticked up 1.32%, reversing course after two consecutive days of decline. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, opposed to economists’ expectations for another decrease following May’s 1.3% drop. Retail spending including stores, restaurants and online slowed in late spring after a surge in spending earlier in the year prompted by federal coronavirus aid to households. June’s increase marks a pickup in consumer spending on products and services associated with resumption of activity post Covid-19 restrictions. Meanwhile, auto sales fell 2%, the largest impediment on overall retail sales which would have risen 1.3% during the same period.
Market Commentary [7.15.21]
Stocks opened lower following commentary from Fed Chairman Powell in Congress yesterday as investors await his appearance before the Senate later today. The S&P 500 led indexes, slipping 0.2% in early trading after hitting an intraday high on Wednesday. In his appearance before the House Financial Services Committee, Chairman Powell said that it was still too soon to scale back monetary support despite inflation rising faster than expected. In China, the SSE gained 1% despite reports from Beijing indicating slowing economic growth. Recently, China said it would lower the reserve ratio requirement on banks in order to free up more money for them to lend.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.327%. Fresh data shows that American applications for first-time unemployment benefits fell to 360,000 in the week ended on July 10, down from 386,000 the previous week. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell told lawmakers that the central bank is not in a hurry to start paring monthly asset purchases and that the economy is still way off from the Fed’s goals, though the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control. He reiterated that he still anticipates price pressures to ease later in the year. New data on U.S. industrial production during June is due to be released later this morning.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.327%. Fresh data shows that American applications for first-time unemployment benefits fell to 360,000 in the week ended on July 10, down from 386,000 the previous week. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell told lawmakers that the central bank is not in a hurry to start paring monthly asset purchases and that the economy is still way off from the Fed’s goals, though the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control. He reiterated that he still anticipates price pressures to ease later in the year. New data on U.S. industrial production during June is due to be released later this morning.
Market Commentary [7.14.21]
Stocks opened higher as investors prepare for Fed Chairman Powell’s presentation on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee later today. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising 0.7%, indicating technology could outperform for a second day while the S&P 500 and DJIA each improved by 0.5%. Investors will look for any guidance on when and how the Fed plans to wind down its bond buying program during Mr. Powell’s presentation as well as the central bank’s willingness to let inflation run above target. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 edged lower, led by utilities, and travel and leisure while China’s SSE dropped 1.1% amid a regulatory crackdown on consumer-technology companies impacting investor appetite.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.377%. Fed Chairman Powell is set to present the central bank’s twice-yearly report on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee later today followed by testimony to the Senate on Thursday. In a prepared statement, Mr. Powell said that inflation had increased notably and would likely remain elevated in the coming months before moderating but recovery has not progressed enough to begin scaling back stimulus. The June U.S. inflation print on Tuesday exceeded all forecasts, indicating higher costs associated with the reopening from the pandemic. Fed officials continue to reiterate that they expect these pressures to be transitory though there is potential of more durable increases forcing an earlier than expected reduction in stimulus.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.377%. Fed Chairman Powell is set to present the central bank’s twice-yearly report on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee later today followed by testimony to the Senate on Thursday. In a prepared statement, Mr. Powell said that inflation had increased notably and would likely remain elevated in the coming months before moderating but recovery has not progressed enough to begin scaling back stimulus. The June U.S. inflation print on Tuesday exceeded all forecasts, indicating higher costs associated with the reopening from the pandemic. Fed officials continue to reiterate that they expect these pressures to be transitory though there is potential of more durable increases forcing an earlier than expected reduction in stimulus.
Market Commentary [7.13.21]
Stocks edged lower following fresh inflation data as investors start second quarter earnings season. The S&P 500 opened 0.1% lower, led by energy and financials after closing at all-time highs for the last two consecutive sessions. Indexes have climbed in recent sessions on the sentiment that companies are set to report strong quarterly earnings, particularly major banks who are expected to have benefited from the economic recovery. Overseas, Hong Kong’s HSI rose 1.6% while China’s SSE improved 0.5%.
The 10 Year Treasury yield ticked lower from 1.362% to 1.359%. U.S. consumer prices rose 5.4%, in June versus analysts’ forecast for a 5% increase, extending the highest annual rate of inflation in 13 years. Yields have weakened in recent months as investors transitioned from stocks to the bond market, aiding the resurgence in growth stocks. Fed Chairman Powell is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday to deliver the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
The 10 Year Treasury yield ticked lower from 1.362% to 1.359%. U.S. consumer prices rose 5.4%, in June versus analysts’ forecast for a 5% increase, extending the highest annual rate of inflation in 13 years. Yields have weakened in recent months as investors transitioned from stocks to the bond market, aiding the resurgence in growth stocks. Fed Chairman Powell is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday to deliver the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
Market Commentary [7.09.21]
Stocks opened higher following a broad-based rebound though major indexes are poised to close the week lower. The DJIA led indexes, advancing 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.5% after its worst day in three weeks. Money managers are betting that global growth is still on track with the expectation that the start of second quarter earnings season next week will enhance confidence. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe rose 0.8%, erasing much of the losses sustained during the week while Hong Kong’s HSI added 0.7% and China’s SSE was little changed.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increase. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.343%. Retail sales declined by 1.3% in May, reversing two straight months of increases as Americans shifted spending habits to services and travel. Building materials and garden equipment sales were down 5.9%, autos were down 3.9%, and electronics were down 3.4% to round out the biggest declines. Clothing, health, food services, gas, and food and beverage stores all saw marginal gains as the economy has reopened and people have become more comfortable traveling for the summer.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increase. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.343%. Retail sales declined by 1.3% in May, reversing two straight months of increases as Americans shifted spending habits to services and travel. Building materials and garden equipment sales were down 5.9%, autos were down 3.9%, and electronics were down 3.4% to round out the biggest declines. Clothing, health, food services, gas, and food and beverage stores all saw marginal gains as the economy has reopened and people have become more comfortable traveling for the summer.
Market Commentary [7.08.21]
Stocks dropped from record highs as increasing concerns on the delta variant coupled with labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks weigh on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq slid the furthest, falling 1.4% in early trading while the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% after closing at all time highs in eight of the last nine trading sessions. Shares in the energy and financial sectors that benefitted from the prospect of a speedy economic expansion are now lagging behind fast growing tech companies as investors continue to prepare for a potentially volatile summer of trading. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe lost 1.8% while the European Central Bank announced its intention to extend ultra-loose policy, raising the inflation target to 2% with room for moderate overshoots in needed.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields decline further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.301%. Initial jobless claims rose last week to 373,000. This was above estimates of an expected 350,000. Continuing claims decreased to 3.34 million, down slightly from the previous week. Federal enhanced benefits expire in September, which will likely push numbers lower as options for the unemployed dwindle and job openings become more attractive. There are still 14.2 million Americans receiving benefits through all programs.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields decline further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.301%. Initial jobless claims rose last week to 373,000. This was above estimates of an expected 350,000. Continuing claims decreased to 3.34 million, down slightly from the previous week. Federal enhanced benefits expire in September, which will likely push numbers lower as options for the unemployed dwindle and job openings become more attractive. There are still 14.2 million Americans receiving benefits through all programs.
Market Commentary [7.07.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors wait for the release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes for cues on the central bank’s stance on labor and economic recovery. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.6% following a new record closing and suggesting large cap tech stocks may advance for a fourth consecutive session. Oil markets extended volatility after OPEC and its allies failed to agree on a deal to raise output. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe advanced 0.6%, close to its all-time high while the Shanghai Composite Index improved 0.7%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.335%. Investors are closely eyeing the Fed minute release this afternoon. Traders are looking for more clues into the central bank’s timeline on interest rate hikes. Most of the 18 members on the panel are now forecasting two proposed hikes for 2023. Seven of those members have moved up their timetable to early next year as a prudent time to adjust. Mortgage demand has declined for two straight weeks now as limited inventory and skyrocketing prices continue to weigh on the hot housing market. Applications decreased 1.8% last week according to the MBA, falling to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020. Both purchase and refinance business tapered, even though mortgage rates dropped. Home purchase applications are now down 14% from a year ago, with refinance applications down 8%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.335%. Investors are closely eyeing the Fed minute release this afternoon. Traders are looking for more clues into the central bank’s timeline on interest rate hikes. Most of the 18 members on the panel are now forecasting two proposed hikes for 2023. Seven of those members have moved up their timetable to early next year as a prudent time to adjust. Mortgage demand has declined for two straight weeks now as limited inventory and skyrocketing prices continue to weigh on the hot housing market. Applications decreased 1.8% last week according to the MBA, falling to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020. Both purchase and refinance business tapered, even though mortgage rates dropped. Home purchase applications are now down 14% from a year ago, with refinance applications down 8%.
Market Commentary [7.06.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors wait for a clearer view on the Federal Reserve’s next move while crude oil jumped to a six-year high. The S&P 500 was little changed, indicating the broad index may hover near its seventh consecutive record closing, its longest record setting streak since 1997. U.S. oil prices briefly rose to six-year highs following OPEC members and their allies failing to reach an agreement on raising output, indicating no further barrels entering the market in August. Investors are growing more concerned that an escalating price war will impact the global economic recovery and add to inflationary pressures. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting and additional context on the central bank’s stance are due Wednesday.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasuries continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.412%. Investors are focused on the Fed’s last meeting minutes, due out at 2 pm ET on Wednesday and are looking for any clues regarding the direction of monetary policy. Economic growth seems to remain steady with rates remaining low, and the housing market has continued to grow, however an escalation in prices has put increased pressure on affordability and limited supply continues to slowdown market forces. The average 30 Yr Fixed mortgage was 2.98% with the average 15 Yr Fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/1/21.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasuries continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.412%. Investors are focused on the Fed’s last meeting minutes, due out at 2 pm ET on Wednesday and are looking for any clues regarding the direction of monetary policy. Economic growth seems to remain steady with rates remaining low, and the housing market has continued to grow, however an escalation in prices has put increased pressure on affordability and limited supply continues to slowdown market forces. The average 30 Yr Fixed mortgage was 2.98% with the average 15 Yr Fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/1/21.
Market Commentary [7.01.21]
Stocks opened higher following another record close for the S&P 500 while initial jobless claims posted a larger than expected decline. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.3% in early trading as the S&P 500 advanced for a fifth consecutive quarter. Brent crude rose over 2%, setting the international benchmark on pace for its highest price since the end of 2018. Members of OPEC and its allies are prepared to meet virtually to discuss the gradual increase of output in the coming months. West Texas Intermediate in the U.S. rose 2.5% and exceeded $75 a barrel for the first time since last October. Investor attention will turn to the manufacturing sector when two purchasing manager surveys will be released for indications on the pace of the economic recovery.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. Initial jobless claims fell back below 400,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June 26. Slightly better than economists expectations of 388,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.469 million, slightly higher than expected. This is the lowest reading of initial jobless claims since March 2020. Employers have struggled to fill open positions across the country and unemployment claims had stagnated in recent weeks as a result. However, investors are looking for continued improvement in the coming months as school reopen, which alleviates the burden of finding childcare as well as a complete phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. Initial jobless claims fell back below 400,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June 26. Slightly better than economists expectations of 388,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.469 million, slightly higher than expected. This is the lowest reading of initial jobless claims since March 2020. Employers have struggled to fill open positions across the country and unemployment claims had stagnated in recent weeks as a result. However, investors are looking for continued improvement in the coming months as school reopen, which alleviates the burden of finding childcare as well as a complete phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits.
Market Commentary [6.30.21]
Stocks were little changed following positive new labor data as another strain of the coronavirus weighs on global markets. The S&P 500 closed at its 33rd all-time high for the year en route to over a 2% advance in June, marking five consecutive months of gains. The Nasdaq slipped 0.1% in early trading, however the tech heavy benchmark improved 6.5% in June and is on pace to close its best month since November. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.5% led by the index’s travel and leisure sector dropping 5.5% on concerns of Covid-19’s Delta variant moving through Europe. Markets in the southern countries of the region such as Spain and Portugal that rely heavily on tourism were hit the hardest.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.458%. The ADP Employment report showed private sector job growth increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June. The gains were evenly distributed across small, medium and large businesses. The service sector still remains the leader in adding jobs with over 624,000 adds. Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health services ranked at the top of the services sector for job adds. Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and Fed President Tom Barkin speaking round out the day in terms of economic release.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.458%. The ADP Employment report showed private sector job growth increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June. The gains were evenly distributed across small, medium and large businesses. The service sector still remains the leader in adding jobs with over 624,000 adds. Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health services ranked at the top of the services sector for job adds. Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and Fed President Tom Barkin speaking round out the day in terms of economic release.
Market Commentary [6.29.21]
Stocks were little changed following another record closing for the S&P 500. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.4% as investors prepare for new data on consumer confidence levels. Analysts estimate that stocks will continue to grind higher with low yields on bonds and continued monetary support however there is growing concern that the market may be running too hot amid expectations that this quarter may be the peak of profit recovery from the pandemic. Brent crude improved 0.5% and has advanced over 40% for the year, OPEC and its allies are set to meet on Thursday to review output for the month of August.
Bond pricing and treasury yields continue to remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.497%. Consumer confidence numbers are due out at 10am ET, with economists expecting a slightly improved index as the economy continues to recover. Home prices in April increased 14.6% annually according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index release. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains; all three were up over 20% form the year before. The 14.6% annual gain is the highest increase recorded in the 30 years of S&P data. Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Seattle all saw the largest gains ever recorded. Demand has continued to outpace supply, with inventory 21% lower than May 2020. New home starts have struggled to keep up as well due to raw material shortages, which have fueled increased prices as well. Sales activity has gained dramatically on the higher end of the market but fallen sharply on the low end as more buyers become priced out, making it increasingly difficult for those who have not purchased or have remained on the sidelines.
Bond pricing and treasury yields continue to remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.497%. Consumer confidence numbers are due out at 10am ET, with economists expecting a slightly improved index as the economy continues to recover. Home prices in April increased 14.6% annually according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index release. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains; all three were up over 20% form the year before. The 14.6% annual gain is the highest increase recorded in the 30 years of S&P data. Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Seattle all saw the largest gains ever recorded. Demand has continued to outpace supply, with inventory 21% lower than May 2020. New home starts have struggled to keep up as well due to raw material shortages, which have fueled increased prices as well. Sales activity has gained dramatically on the higher end of the market but fallen sharply on the low end as more buyers become priced out, making it increasingly difficult for those who have not purchased or have remained on the sidelines.
Market Commentary [6.28.21]
Stocks edged higher following the market’s best week since February with the S&P 500 closing at a record high the 31st time this year. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.6% in early trading, indicating technology shares may stand to gain in today’s session. Bitcoin pricing whipsawed this weekend, dropping 6% after the U.K.’s leading financial regulator announced that Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange network was not permitted to conduct local operations related to regulated financial activities. Pricing eventually recovered lost ground on Sunday and is now trading above $34,300. Overseas, markets were little changed with the Stoxx Europe 600 ticking up 0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipping within 0.1%.
Bond pricing and treasuries remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.504%. Yields rose late last week on the core cpi release showing a 3.4% increase year over year for May. This is the biggest jump since April of 1992. Investors will focus on the unemployment rate next, scheduled for Friday’s release. Mortgage rates have remained static over the past few weeks as treasury yields have hovered in place. The average 30 year fixed was at 3.02%, while the average 15 year fixed was 2.34% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey from 6/24/2021.
Bond pricing and treasuries remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.504%. Yields rose late last week on the core cpi release showing a 3.4% increase year over year for May. This is the biggest jump since April of 1992. Investors will focus on the unemployment rate next, scheduled for Friday’s release. Mortgage rates have remained static over the past few weeks as treasury yields have hovered in place. The average 30 year fixed was at 3.02%, while the average 15 year fixed was 2.34% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey from 6/24/2021.
Market Commentary [6.25.21]
Stocks opened higher, extending weekly gains as investor sentiment renews confidence following the Fed’s hawkish pivot last week. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising 0.6% and is on track for its sixth consecutive weekly advance while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and is on pace for its best week since April. On Thursday, President Biden and a group of 10 senators agreed to a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan, however the bipartisan deal will hinge on the additional passage of Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda. Overseas, China’s SSE advanced 1.2% and Hong Kong’s HSI improved 1.4%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Personal income dipped by 2% in May. Compensation was offset recently by stimulus checks which have now subsided. Consumer spending was flat and savings dipped by 2.1% to 12.4% in total. Core inflation rose 0.3% to 3.4% , matching market consensus. Overall, the dollar seems to have weakened relative to its rivals on the news, with the US Dollar Index losing .22% on the day.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Personal income dipped by 2% in May. Compensation was offset recently by stimulus checks which have now subsided. Consumer spending was flat and savings dipped by 2.1% to 12.4% in total. Core inflation rose 0.3% to 3.4% , matching market consensus. Overall, the dollar seems to have weakened relative to its rivals on the news, with the US Dollar Index losing .22% on the day.
Market Commentary [6.24.21]
Stocks opened higher on new labor data and increases in orders for durable goods following two consecutive all-time closing highs for the Nasdaq Composite Index. The S&P 500 and DJIA improved over 0.5% in early trading as stocks grind higher on easing concerns about inflation and tightening monetary policy. Analysts are becoming more confident that interest rates will note rise for some time, leading to comeback for technology shares. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6% while Hong Kong’s HSI ticked up 0.2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.485%. Another 411,000 filed unemployment claims last week, slightly higher than the expected 380,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.39 million, slightly better than the expected 3.46 million. Investors seem to have built a psychological 400,000 level for initial jobless claims, with this and last week's numbers above the threshold. Investors are watching closely for continued improvement, but the last two readings have stalled above the 400,000 level. Issues in the labor market have shifted to the supply side, with companies citing difficulties finding workers to fill job openings.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.485%. Another 411,000 filed unemployment claims last week, slightly higher than the expected 380,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.39 million, slightly better than the expected 3.46 million. Investors seem to have built a psychological 400,000 level for initial jobless claims, with this and last week's numbers above the threshold. Investors are watching closely for continued improvement, but the last two readings have stalled above the 400,000 level. Issues in the labor market have shifted to the supply side, with companies citing difficulties finding workers to fill job openings.
Market Commentary [6.23.21]
Stocks edged higher, indicating that indexes may hover near all-time highs ahead of new data on the labor market and GDP set to be released on Thursday. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.3% a day after closing at its all-time high. Brent crude rose 1.6%, exceeding $74 a barrel while copper regained some ground, improving over 1%. Overseas, China’s SSE improved 0.3% while Hong Kong’s HSI advanced 1.8%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed Chairman Powell’s speech reassured investors about inflation and flattened bond yields. U.S. oil prices have surged 52%, topping $74 a barrel, but Powell continues to attribute most of the surge to factors surrounding the economic recovery from the pandemic. Powell remains certain that the U.S. will not see 1970s-era inflation, calling it “very, very unlikely”. U.S. debt to other countries continues to grow as a result of the pandemic. The U.S. current account deficit increased by $20.7 billion to $195.7 billion in the first three months of this year. The largest gap since 2007 was due to an increase in the U.S. trade deficit in goods. U.S. imports set a record high in March, however economists believe the account deficit will subside as the other countries rebound from the pandemic and U.S. exports fully recover.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed Chairman Powell’s speech reassured investors about inflation and flattened bond yields. U.S. oil prices have surged 52%, topping $74 a barrel, but Powell continues to attribute most of the surge to factors surrounding the economic recovery from the pandemic. Powell remains certain that the U.S. will not see 1970s-era inflation, calling it “very, very unlikely”. U.S. debt to other countries continues to grow as a result of the pandemic. The U.S. current account deficit increased by $20.7 billion to $195.7 billion in the first three months of this year. The largest gap since 2007 was due to an increase in the U.S. trade deficit in goods. U.S. imports set a record high in March, however economists believe the account deficit will subside as the other countries rebound from the pandemic and U.S. exports fully recover.
Market Commentary [6.22.21]
Stocks were little changed following the biggest rally in five weeks as investors await comments from Fed Chairman Powell regarding the outlook for inflation and labor. The DJIA wavered in early trading after posting its biggest advance in over three months on Monday. The S&P 500 fluctuated, led by raw materials and retail shares while some financials declined. GameStop rose 7% after announcing the company had raised over $1 billion from the sale of shares. Bitcoin’s slide continues as the crackdown on cryptocurrencies in China has pushed it below $30,000 for the first time since January.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the coronavirus at 2 pm ET Today. Cleveland Fed President Loreta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also speak mid-morning on other topics. Existing Home Sales is due out at 10 am ET. Economists have forecast 5.73 million, a slight dip below the last reading of 5.85 million in April. Existing home sales have been on a continual decline since January, which in turn have fueled prices increasingly higher. The median existing home price in April came in at a record $341,600, a rise of 19.1 percent from April the year before.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the coronavirus at 2 pm ET Today. Cleveland Fed President Loreta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also speak mid-morning on other topics. Existing Home Sales is due out at 10 am ET. Economists have forecast 5.73 million, a slight dip below the last reading of 5.85 million in April. Existing home sales have been on a continual decline since January, which in turn have fueled prices increasingly higher. The median existing home price in April came in at a record $341,600, a rise of 19.1 percent from April the year before.
Market Commentary [6.21.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investor sentiment calms after the Fed’s hawkish pivot, leading to a selloff in risk assets last week. The DJIA advanced 0.6% following a tumultuous week in which the benchmark suffered its largest decline since the end of October. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, ending a four day streak of losses led by shares tied to reopenings outperforming technology, while the Nasdaq started 0.3% lower. Cryptocurrencies have come under pressure recently as a clampdown on bitcoin mining intensifies in China. Bitcoin and Ether declined by more than 8% and 10% respectively while dogecoin dropped over 20%.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak on a Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9 a.m. ET. The Fed raised its inflation forecast in its meeting last week, signaling an interest rate hike could happen as early as 2023. Bullard believes it could even happen in 2022. The 10 year treasury dipped early this morning to its lowest level since late February. The yield dropped to 1.354% before rebounding to current levels. The 10 Year yield still remains near 3 month lows.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak on a Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9 a.m. ET. The Fed raised its inflation forecast in its meeting last week, signaling an interest rate hike could happen as early as 2023. Bullard believes it could even happen in 2022. The 10 year treasury dipped early this morning to its lowest level since late February. The yield dropped to 1.354% before rebounding to current levels. The 10 Year yield still remains near 3 month lows.
Market Commentary [6.18.21]
Stocks opened lower, led by the DJIA falling 1.2% following a nearly 2% decline this week through Thursday, putting the index on track for its worst week since late January. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8% in early trading, indicating the benchmark’s run of three weeks of gains could end. Investors gained some confidence that the Fed would be proactive addressing inflation after the FOMC announced expected interest rate increases by late 2023, leading to a retreat in banking and energy shares and removing steam from the recent rally. Today marks one of four quadruple witching days this year in which four types of contracts are set to expire on the same day including futures and options linked to individual stocks and indexes.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.512%. Even though there was little move in treasuries after the Fed announcement, many economists are predicting a rise in the 10 Year Treasury to 2% or more in the next six to seven months. It’s believed that even though the Fed has a transitory look toward current inflation readings, investors are becoming increasingly leery of just how long inflation may last, which is very troubling to some. Data released Thursday from online real estate broker Redfin, showed the number of homes for sale fell 27% in May from a year ago. Houses are on the market for an average of 16 days and 54% of houses for sale sold above their list price. Record low inventory coupled with record high prices.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.512%. Even though there was little move in treasuries after the Fed announcement, many economists are predicting a rise in the 10 Year Treasury to 2% or more in the next six to seven months. It’s believed that even though the Fed has a transitory look toward current inflation readings, investors are becoming increasingly leery of just how long inflation may last, which is very troubling to some. Data released Thursday from online real estate broker Redfin, showed the number of homes for sale fell 27% in May from a year ago. Houses are on the market for an average of 16 days and 54% of houses for sale sold above their list price. Record low inventory coupled with record high prices.
Market Commentary [6.17.21]
Stocks opened mixed following the FOMC indicating its intention to raise interest rates earlier than forecasted. Major indexes in the U.S. were little changed while Europe’s Stoxx 600 declined for the first time in 10 sessions, slipping 0.4%. Fed officials provided the clearest signals to date that gradually scaling back easy monetary policies is on the table as their median projection indicated lifting their benchmark rate to 0.6% by the end of 2023. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is set to testify before a House panel on the federal budget later today.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries find new footing. The Fed raised its inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full point higher than the March projection. The Fed also noted that rate hikes could be coming as soon as 2023. There was no mention of the central bank beginning to taper its bond-buying program, something many investors were looking for. Initial jobless claims jumped to 412,000 last week, well above the 360,000 expected and a turn around from recent continual declines. There are 3.518 million continuing claims, slightly above expectations of 3.425 million. On June 12, Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, and Mississippi became the first states to reduce enhanced federal unemployment benefits before their official September expiration.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries find new footing. The Fed raised its inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full point higher than the March projection. The Fed also noted that rate hikes could be coming as soon as 2023. There was no mention of the central bank beginning to taper its bond-buying program, something many investors were looking for. Initial jobless claims jumped to 412,000 last week, well above the 360,000 expected and a turn around from recent continual declines. There are 3.518 million continuing claims, slightly above expectations of 3.425 million. On June 12, Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, and Mississippi became the first states to reduce enhanced federal unemployment benefits before their official September expiration.
Market Commentary [6.16.21]
Stocks were little changed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest projections on inflation, labor and its bond purchasing program. The Nasdaq led indexes, ticking up 0.3% while the S&P 500 continues to hover near an all-time high. Looking to the acceleration of inflation and economic growth this year, investors will be trying to gauge the Fed’s consideration to move up discussions on scaling back monetary stimulus and starting the foundation for the first post-pandemic interest rate hike. Overseas, China ordered state firms to curb international commodities exposure in order to mitigate rising prices on raw materials. The SSE Composite Index fell 1.1% while the Stoxx Europe 600 notched its eighth consecutive record close, improving 0.3%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat ahead of the Fed announcement scheduled for 2pm ET Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. Housing starts are 1.572 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly below economists’ expectations of 1.63 million. This is still 3.6% above April’s reading and 50.3% above the May 2020 annualized rate. Building permits, a leading indicator of overall housing performance, remain elevated at 1.681 million, but came in 3% below April’s reading. Permits still remain 34.9% above levels from a year ago in May. Demand has been strong for housing throughout the crisis, but builders have struggled to meet demand due to material costs and shortages of both raw materials and qualified workers.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat ahead of the Fed announcement scheduled for 2pm ET Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. Housing starts are 1.572 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly below economists’ expectations of 1.63 million. This is still 3.6% above April’s reading and 50.3% above the May 2020 annualized rate. Building permits, a leading indicator of overall housing performance, remain elevated at 1.681 million, but came in 3% below April’s reading. Permits still remain 34.9% above levels from a year ago in May. Demand has been strong for housing throughout the crisis, but builders have struggled to meet demand due to material costs and shortages of both raw materials and qualified workers.
Market Commentary [6.15.21]
Stocks edged lower following new data indicating retail spending dropped in May as supply chain issues and reopenings stoke a shift from goods to services. The tech heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.4% in early trading while the S&P 500 continues to hover near its all time high. Analysts anticipate investor sentiment to remain relatively calm ahead of the FOMC rate decision and comments to be released tomorrow. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 imrproved 0.3%, extending its run of record closings while China’s SSE dropped 0.9% and Hong Kong’s HSI declined 0.7%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.492%. Investors are patiently awaiting new cues from the Fed as they wrap up their two day meeting Tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement at 2pm ET. Retail sales struggled in April, with a disappointing reading of 0%. March saw a 10.7% surge as the first round of stimulus checks was sent to most households. In this morning’s release retail sales fell 1.3%, with spending shifting from consumer goods back to services as service based businesses have re-opened post covid.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.492%. Investors are patiently awaiting new cues from the Fed as they wrap up their two day meeting Tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement at 2pm ET. Retail sales struggled in April, with a disappointing reading of 0%. March saw a 10.7% surge as the first round of stimulus checks was sent to most households. In this morning’s release retail sales fell 1.3%, with spending shifting from consumer goods back to services as service based businesses have re-opened post covid.
Market Commentary [6.14.21]
Stocks opened relatively flat as shares listed on the S&P 500 ground toward a new record after closing the previous week at an all-time high. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday will dominate investor attention with inflation and labor as prominent points of focus for policy makers. Novavax Inc. improved nearly 8% after revealing that late stage data showed its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was 90% effective against the virus. Brent crude rose 0.9% and above $73, its highest since April 2019, extending a run of three weekly gains as optimism increases that economic reopening will boost summer demand.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.469%. There are no major economic releases Today, but the FOMC will be meeting this week to discuss policy, followed by a press conference 2pm ET Wednesday from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is expected to reiterate its easy monetary policy approach, with some investors turning skeptical with recent hotter than expected inflation data. Investors will look for signs that recent data has impacted the Fed’s forecast. Even with slightly higher inflation data, treasury yields have been relatively sticky over the past 3 months, with yields horizontally trading in a tighter range. The 10 Year tested recent highs of 1.75% at the end of March. On the flip side, we are currently near 3 month lows.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.469%. There are no major economic releases Today, but the FOMC will be meeting this week to discuss policy, followed by a press conference 2pm ET Wednesday from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is expected to reiterate its easy monetary policy approach, with some investors turning skeptical with recent hotter than expected inflation data. Investors will look for signs that recent data has impacted the Fed’s forecast. Even with slightly higher inflation data, treasury yields have been relatively sticky over the past 3 months, with yields horizontally trading in a tighter range. The 10 Year tested recent highs of 1.75% at the end of March. On the flip side, we are currently near 3 month lows.
Market Commentary [6.11.21]
Stocks opened higher following the S&P 500 closing at a record high, extending gains for the third consecutive week. The major indexes are hovering near record highs, led by the DJIA improving 0.3% in early trading. On Thursday, the Labor Department announced that the economic rebound has been the largest driving force leading to consumer price increases in May, aiding the sentiment that inflation pressures may ease later this year. Overseas, the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast and renewed a pledge to maintain faster emergency bond buying to sustain the region. The Stoxx Europe improved 0.6% after closing at a record high on Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. There is little economic news Today. Consumer sentiment is released at 10am ET. Economists are expecting an improved reading of 84.4 over the last reading of 82.9. Rates are still hovering below the 3% mark according to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey as of 6/10/21. The average 30 Yr Fxd is 2.96%, while the average 15 Yr Fxd is 2.23%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. There is little economic news Today. Consumer sentiment is released at 10am ET. Economists are expecting an improved reading of 84.4 over the last reading of 82.9. Rates are still hovering below the 3% mark according to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey as of 6/10/21. The average 30 Yr Fxd is 2.96%, while the average 15 Yr Fxd is 2.23%.
Market Commentary [6.10.21]
Stocks opened higher following a greater increase in consumer prices than expected as the labor market continues to recover. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.4%, maintaining pace for a new closing record. Original meme stock GameStop declined nearly 7% after announcing the company was planning a stock offering and disclosed that regulators are investigating trading of its stock. Leaders of the Group of Seven economies are set to hold a three-day summit in England starting Friday.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.514%. Initial jobless claims came in at 376,000 vs 370,000 expected. Slightly higher than expected, but still improved over prior weeks, and a continued decline over the past six straight weeks. Continuing claims remain relatively high at 3.5 million. The consumer price index increased 0.6% last month, accelerating 5.0% year over year. The largest increase since August 2008. This was slightly above economists predictions of 4.7% year over year growth. Core inflation also saw an increase of 3.8% in May, which was the largest 12 month increase since June 1992. Some economists believe that we still have not seen peak inflation, but that it should occur in the current quarter and keep an elevated pace through 2021.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.514%. Initial jobless claims came in at 376,000 vs 370,000 expected. Slightly higher than expected, but still improved over prior weeks, and a continued decline over the past six straight weeks. Continuing claims remain relatively high at 3.5 million. The consumer price index increased 0.6% last month, accelerating 5.0% year over year. The largest increase since August 2008. This was slightly above economists predictions of 4.7% year over year growth. Core inflation also saw an increase of 3.8% in May, which was the largest 12 month increase since June 1992. Some economists believe that we still have not seen peak inflation, but that it should occur in the current quarter and keep an elevated pace through 2021.
Market Commentary [6.09.21]
Stocks edged higher as the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% following its third highest close on record yesterday. The Nasdaq improved 0.4%, suggesting continued gains for technology shares. Clover Health Investments advanced another 24% in premarket trading after an 86% surge on Tuesday. Investors are observing the start of summer and its implied reduced liquidity due to vacations leading to less market participants and lower trading volumes. Overseas, the SSE Composite Index ticked up 0.3% as fresh data showed a higher than expected increase in China’s producer prices due to a rise in commodity prices. Their consumer price index reported below forecasts, indicating that the higher costs have not yet been passed to consumers.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up yield. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.486%. Wholesale inventories is scheduled for release Today at 10 am ET. There are no other released Today. Investors are watching closely for Tomorrow’s releases with initial jobless claims, consumer price index, and core cpi being released at 8:30am ET. Economists are expecting inflation data to show a rise of roughly 4.7% from last year. Some believe it could prompt the Federal Reserve to taper asset purchases sooner rather than later, despite the Fed stating that higher price pressures were temporary. Inflation seems to be heating up rather quickly beginning with April’s numbers. Initial jobless claims has shown improvement in recent weeks, dropping below 400,000 new claims. Unemployment incentives have kept many thinking twice about returning to work. Job openings in April were a record high of 9.3 million in the latest Labor Department’s Job Openings Survey.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up yield. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.486%. Wholesale inventories is scheduled for release Today at 10 am ET. There are no other released Today. Investors are watching closely for Tomorrow’s releases with initial jobless claims, consumer price index, and core cpi being released at 8:30am ET. Economists are expecting inflation data to show a rise of roughly 4.7% from last year. Some believe it could prompt the Federal Reserve to taper asset purchases sooner rather than later, despite the Fed stating that higher price pressures were temporary. Inflation seems to be heating up rather quickly beginning with April’s numbers. Initial jobless claims has shown improvement in recent weeks, dropping below 400,000 new claims. Unemployment incentives have kept many thinking twice about returning to work. Job openings in April were a record high of 9.3 million in the latest Labor Department’s Job Openings Survey.
Market Commentary [6.08.21]
Stocks opened mixed, extending a relatively tight range in recent sessions as inflation concerns continue to dominate investor sentiment. The Nasdaq led indexes rising 0.8% while the DJIA fell 0.2% in early trading. Shares of Clover Health Investments, the latest meme stock, soared 37% following its 32% advancement on Monday, while other meme stocks such as AMC Entertainment and GameStop improved around 5%. Bitcoin prices continue to fall, dropping below $33,000, its lowest level since late January. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for a third day, putting it on course to close at a fresh all-time high.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.525%. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, U.S. small business confidence has slipped lower over the last month, marking the first decline in four months. A nationwide labor shortage coupled with inflation worries weighed on business owners’ future prospects. The optimism reading fell to 99.6 in May. The quality of labor ranked as businesses’ biggest problem. Many Americans have opted to remain at home because of childcare issues, enhanced unemployment benefits and ongoing worries about COVID-19.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.525%. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, U.S. small business confidence has slipped lower over the last month, marking the first decline in four months. A nationwide labor shortage coupled with inflation worries weighed on business owners’ future prospects. The optimism reading fell to 99.6 in May. The quality of labor ranked as businesses’ biggest problem. Many Americans have opted to remain at home because of childcare issues, enhanced unemployment benefits and ongoing worries about COVID-19.
Market Commentary [6.07.21]
Stocks opened relatively flat as investors continue to assess improved labor data against supply chain issues and high valuations. The S&P 500 edged higher by 0.1% following its second highest close in history on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.1%, suggesting that investors are looking beyond pure growth narratives to sustain gains. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Yellen endorsed President Biden’s spending plans saying that it would be good, even if it contributes to rising inflation as a slightly higher interest-rate environment would be a plus. Bitcoin rebounded above $36,000 following a tumultuous weekend in which China intensified a crackdown on bitcoin trading and mining.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat with limited economic news Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.569%. 30 Year fixed rate mortgages are still hovering below 3%, with the average at 2.99%. 15 year fixed are hovering at 2.27% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey data as of June 3rd. Treasuries have stalled in recent weeks with little economic push, keeping rates steady amidst low housing inventory and raw material shortages that have led to increased prices and higher home values across the country. Consumer Credit is scheduled to be released later Today as investors watch closely for signals on household’s willingness to borrow to finance their spending.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat with limited economic news Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.569%. 30 Year fixed rate mortgages are still hovering below 3%, with the average at 2.99%. 15 year fixed are hovering at 2.27% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey data as of June 3rd. Treasuries have stalled in recent weeks with little economic push, keeping rates steady amidst low housing inventory and raw material shortages that have led to increased prices and higher home values across the country. Consumer Credit is scheduled to be released later Today as investors watch closely for signals on household’s willingness to borrow to finance their spending.
Market Commentary [6.04.21]
Stocks opened higher as new data indicates a continued recovery in the labor market. Mega cap tech shares pushed the Nasdaq toward its best one-day gain in nearly two weeks, advancing 0.8% while the S&P 500 improved 0.5%. Mixed data between the U.S. economy adding slightly fewer jobs than forecasted coupled with the unemployment rate dropping more than expected suggests the Fed will continue its patient approach before paring back its fiscal and monetary support. Overseas markets were mixed with the Stoxx Europe 600 and SSE each ticking up 0.2% while Hong Kong’s HSI declined 0.2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.593%. The economy added back 559,000 jobs in May, dropping the unemployment rate to 5.8%. Economists were expecting a reading of 5.9%. Industries within the service sector that were deeply impacted by the shutdown saw a surge in re-employment during May. Leisure and hospitality added 292,000 jobs, but still 2.7 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Education and health added 87,000 jobs, roughly three times the amount for April.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.593%. The economy added back 559,000 jobs in May, dropping the unemployment rate to 5.8%. Economists were expecting a reading of 5.9%. Industries within the service sector that were deeply impacted by the shutdown saw a surge in re-employment during May. Leisure and hospitality added 292,000 jobs, but still 2.7 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Education and health added 87,000 jobs, roughly three times the amount for April.
Market Commentary [6.03.21]
Stocks opened lower following fresh labor market data beating expectations, leading to speculation on the Federal Reserve’s timeline to withdraw its support. The Nasdaq led indexes, falling 0.9% with a retreat for technology shares while the S&P slipped 0.6%. Supply chain issues have been a growing concern for investors as bottle necks for materials have bolstered input costs for products and are impacting restaurants and stores with consumers return to in person commerce. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.6% after a record high while the SSE slid 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.598%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly under expectations at 385,000. The first reading below 400,000 as the market continues to recover. Texas, Oregon and Florida led the pack in decreased claims, while Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and Kentucky all saw increases. Continuing claims still remain high at 3.77 million, up from the last reading of 3.60 million. The number of Americans claiming benefits across all unemployment programs totaled 15.4 million during the week ended May 15.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.598%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly under expectations at 385,000. The first reading below 400,000 as the market continues to recover. Texas, Oregon and Florida led the pack in decreased claims, while Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and Kentucky all saw increases. Continuing claims still remain high at 3.77 million, up from the last reading of 3.60 million. The number of Americans claiming benefits across all unemployment programs totaled 15.4 million during the week ended May 15.
Market Commentary [6.02.21]
Stocks edged higher as meme shares made popular by retail traders surged in early trading. Major indexes hovering near all-time highs ticked up following the bell, led by the DJIA improving 0.2%. Despite positive levels, investors are looking to find justification on high valuations already commanded by several stocks with concerns that they will struggle to continue improvement without unprecedented fiscal support. AMC Entertainment jumped 13% following a 22% rally on Tuesday after announcing it had sold shares to a hedge fund while BlackBerry improved by 9.5%. Investors will turn to the release of the Fed’s beige book report later today for insights on the current economic condition and how businesses are faring.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.603%. Several Fed speakers are scheduled to speak Today, kicking off at noon and 2pm ET along with the Beige Book. Motor vehicle sales is also scheduled to be released sometime Today. Raw material shortages, specifically computer chips, have hampered production of new vehicles and caused shortages of new vehicles for purchase in recent months. Dealership supply has dwindled, leaving lots eerily empty in some cases. Even with material shortages, demand has remained steady and strong over the past year for new vehicles with 18.5 million light vehicle units sold in April, which was above pre-pandemic levels.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.603%. Several Fed speakers are scheduled to speak Today, kicking off at noon and 2pm ET along with the Beige Book. Motor vehicle sales is also scheduled to be released sometime Today. Raw material shortages, specifically computer chips, have hampered production of new vehicles and caused shortages of new vehicles for purchase in recent months. Dealership supply has dwindled, leaving lots eerily empty in some cases. Even with material shortages, demand has remained steady and strong over the past year for new vehicles with 18.5 million light vehicle units sold in April, which was above pre-pandemic levels.
Market Commentary [6.01.21]
Stocks opened higher ahead of manufacturing data set to be released later this morning as investor confidence continues to increase that the Fed will not pull back stimulus measures to combat rising inflation. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.9% while the S&P 500 improved 0.7% following a fourth consecutive monthly advance before the Memorial Day weekend. Commodity and raw material prices have pushed higher along with the recovery, including gold, iron ore and copper. Brent crude oil prices rose over 3% putting it on track to close above $70 a barrel for the first time since May 2019 as members of OPEC are due to meet today to review potential increased production over the summer.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. Investors are still digesting last week’s inflation data and are looking ahead to Friday’s Employment data as well. Economists are expecting 674,000 jobs to be created in May after a lackluster reading in April of 266,000. ISM manufacturing and the Markit Manufacturing PMI are due out this morning with expectations in line with prior month’s readings. Rates continue to hover as treasury yields have remained somewhat flat over the month of May. The 30 Yr fxd rate average is still 2.95%, while the average 15 Yr fxd is 2.27% as of May 27th.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. Investors are still digesting last week’s inflation data and are looking ahead to Friday’s Employment data as well. Economists are expecting 674,000 jobs to be created in May after a lackluster reading in April of 266,000. ISM manufacturing and the Markit Manufacturing PMI are due out this morning with expectations in line with prior month’s readings. Rates continue to hover as treasury yields have remained somewhat flat over the month of May. The 30 Yr fxd rate average is still 2.95%, while the average 15 Yr fxd is 2.27% as of May 27th.
Market Commentary [5.28.21]
Stocks edged higher after new data showed increased inflation in April indicating that demand for inflation-protected bonds is pushing up market inflation expectations. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.4% while the S&P 500 and DJIA each advanced by 0.3%. Fed officials and investors continue to monitor inflation data to gauge whether pressures will be temporary or long lasting to determine if the central bank’s current policy needs to be revised. Sentiment still remains that the Fed will not raise rates aggressively but remain behind the curve to aid in the recovery.
Bond pricing is worse by a few ticks as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.613%. Core inflation showed an increase of 0.7% in April with the annual core inflation rate, most often watched closely by the Fed, up to 3.1%, a multi-decade high. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in April as they continue to catch up on activities forbidden during lockdown. The combination of rising demand and restricted supply continues to push inflation upward, forcing many households to now pay more for gas, food, and other necessities.
Bond pricing is worse by a few ticks as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.613%. Core inflation showed an increase of 0.7% in April with the annual core inflation rate, most often watched closely by the Fed, up to 3.1%, a multi-decade high. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in April as they continue to catch up on activities forbidden during lockdown. The combination of rising demand and restricted supply continues to push inflation upward, forcing many households to now pay more for gas, food, and other necessities.
Market Commentary [5.27.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors asses new economic releases regarding initial jobless claims and orders for durable goods. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.6% while the Nasdaq ticked lower, slipping 0.1%. Indexes have wavered as concerns on runaway inflation have abated while Fed officials indicated that discussions on adjusting the pace of asset purchases may start in the near future. Equities have pushed higher in May despite volatile trading sessions due to inflation and its potential impact on the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Analysts are now seeing sentiment favoring a move back to cyclical stocks, poised to perform with the reopening economy.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. Initial jobless claims fell to 406,000 for the week ended May 22nd, the lowest post pandemic level seen. Economists were expecting 425,000 claims. Continuing claims came in at 3.642 million vs 3.68 million expected. An elevated number of Americans are still claiming unemployment benefits, even as the pace of new filings slows. Over 15.9 million individuals were claiming benefits of some form as of the week ended May 8th. GDP was also released this morning showing a 6.4% annualized rate, unchanged from the estimate.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. Initial jobless claims fell to 406,000 for the week ended May 22nd, the lowest post pandemic level seen. Economists were expecting 425,000 claims. Continuing claims came in at 3.642 million vs 3.68 million expected. An elevated number of Americans are still claiming unemployment benefits, even as the pace of new filings slows. Over 15.9 million individuals were claiming benefits of some form as of the week ended May 8th. GDP was also released this morning showing a 6.4% annualized rate, unchanged from the estimate.
Market Commentary [5.26.21]
Stocks edged higher as Fed officials continue to stress that there are no imminent plans to change policy, easing concerns the central bank will dial back monetary support due to inflation. The Nasdaq led indexes advancing 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average improved over 0.2% on the 125th year anniversary of its debut. The Cboe Volatility Index, dropped to 18.41, its lowest level since the beginning of May. Focus will shift to Washington as CEOs from some of the country’s largest banks are set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee Thursday.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields slowly give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.56%. Yields have side stepped since mid-March as inflationary signs have trickled through recent economic releases. The 10 Year Treasury has traded in a tight range of 1.53% to 1.75% on the outlying ends. There are no economic releases Today, however, the rest of the week is loaded with Initial jobless claims and continuing claims, GDP, personal income and consumer spending as well as core inflation. Investors are leery as the recent side stepped, stored energy could give us a pop with the right mix of economic data being released.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields slowly give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.56%. Yields have side stepped since mid-March as inflationary signs have trickled through recent economic releases. The 10 Year Treasury has traded in a tight range of 1.53% to 1.75% on the outlying ends. There are no economic releases Today, however, the rest of the week is loaded with Initial jobless claims and continuing claims, GDP, personal income and consumer spending as well as core inflation. Investors are leery as the recent side stepped, stored energy could give us a pop with the right mix of economic data being released.
Market Commentary [5.25.21]
Stocks opened higher and are on pace for a second day of gains following reassurances from Fed officials that the central bank will keep monetary stimulus in place. The S&P 500 opened 0.3% higher led by financials, consumer and industrial shares while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, indicating technology stocks could continue to improve after leading broader markets higher on Monday. Moderna rose nearly 3% in premarket trading after the drugmaker announced that its Covid-19 vaccine is effective in children between 12 and 17 years of age. Overseas, the Shanghai Composite index improved 2.4%, its biggest one day move since October and highest closing level in three months. Chinese authorities have voiced concerns of rising prices for raw materials in recent days, easing investor concern on inflation.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.591%. Home prices in March saw the highest growth in over 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller S&P National Home Price Index. Prices in March were 13.2% higher than last year at the same time. This is the largest index gain since December 2005 and also one of the largest in the 30-yea history of the index. High demand, coupled with record-low supply continues to fuel prices higher. Cities with the largest gains are Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle. Phoenix has seen 20% gains year over year, San Diego reporting 19.1% and Seattle coming in at 18.3%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.591%. Home prices in March saw the highest growth in over 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller S&P National Home Price Index. Prices in March were 13.2% higher than last year at the same time. This is the largest index gain since December 2005 and also one of the largest in the 30-yea history of the index. High demand, coupled with record-low supply continues to fuel prices higher. Cities with the largest gains are Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle. Phoenix has seen 20% gains year over year, San Diego reporting 19.1% and Seattle coming in at 18.3%.
Market Commentary [5.24.21]
Stocks opened higher as inflation concerns appear to ease following recent weaker than expected economic reports, enhancing the outlook on the pace of the economic recovery. The Nasdaq advanced just below 1% as technology shares led gains while the S&P 500 and DJIA improved by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Bitcoin rose moderately after hitting multi-month lows on Sunday, as the cryptocurrency has lost over 40% of its value since its mid-April peak. Fed Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard is scheduled to speak about digital currencies at a virtual event organized by CoinDesk later this morning.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.61%. Mortgage rates are holding steady as treasury yields seem to have found recent pause. The average 30 Year Fxd rate was 3.000% and the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.29% as of May 20, 2021 in Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey. Shortages of housing inventory along with raw materials shortages for builders continue to drive up prices, making it increasingly difficult for homebuyers to find homes to purchase.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.61%. Mortgage rates are holding steady as treasury yields seem to have found recent pause. The average 30 Year Fxd rate was 3.000% and the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.29% as of May 20, 2021 in Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey. Shortages of housing inventory along with raw materials shortages for builders continue to drive up prices, making it increasingly difficult for homebuyers to find homes to purchase.
Market Commentary [5.21.21]
Stocks opened higher in anticipation of new manufacturing and services sector data that will be released later this morning. The DJIA led indexes, improving over 0.6% while the Nasdaq opened 0.5% higher, initiating its third consecutive day of gains and best streak since early April. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6% to its highest level in two weeks on energy, materials and industrial shares. Sentiment has swayed considerably in recent sessions, first on concerns of inflation rising on course with the economic rebound but then reversing as investors moved back to riskier assets such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies following initial jobless claims falling below the pandemic low on Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. The May Markit PMI, which tracks economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors is due out at 9:45 am ET, followed by Existing Home Sales being released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting these releases to be on track with the last readings. Existing Home Sales has tapered over the past few months, but mainly from limited supply which has pushed prices exponentially higher in bidding wars. Despite slightly higher rates and prices, demand still seems strong as builders also look to keep up with the pace amidst raw material shortages.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. The May Markit PMI, which tracks economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors is due out at 9:45 am ET, followed by Existing Home Sales being released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting these releases to be on track with the last readings. Existing Home Sales has tapered over the past few months, but mainly from limited supply which has pushed prices exponentially higher in bidding wars. Despite slightly higher rates and prices, demand still seems strong as builders also look to keep up with the pace amidst raw material shortages.
Market Commentary [5.20.21]
Stocks edged higher following jobless claims declining from the previous week to the lowest level since March last year. The Nasdaq led indexes, gaining 0.6% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.4%. Fed Reserve minutes released from April indicated that some officials eluded to the potential start of talks to reduce the central bank’s bond buying program in a future meeting, briefly jolting stocks Wednesday afternoon. Bitcoin rose over 9%, passing $40,000 after a frenzied selloff in which cryptocurrencies plunged. Oil reversed an earlier gain, extending a three week low after Iran’s president announced that the outline of a deal to end sanctions on its oil had been reached.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.659%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new low of 444,000 for the week ended May 15. Georgia, Kentucky and Texas were states that saw the biggest declines. The labor market has been slow to recover with some industries hit harder than others. Claims still remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels indicating additional recovery is still required. Continuing claims came in at 3.75 million, up from the last reading of 3.64 million, and an additional sign that there could be a long tail to recovery.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.659%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new low of 444,000 for the week ended May 15. Georgia, Kentucky and Texas were states that saw the biggest declines. The labor market has been slow to recover with some industries hit harder than others. Claims still remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels indicating additional recovery is still required. Continuing claims came in at 3.75 million, up from the last reading of 3.64 million, and an additional sign that there could be a long tail to recovery.
Market Commentary [5.19.21]
Stocks opened lower following a Bitcoin plunge with technology shares tumbling amid growing concerns of inflation and retreating commodity pricing. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, dropping over 1.5% while all three posted over a point in losses as markets opened. Bitcoin dropped over 20% since 5 p.m. Tuesday to below $35,000, erasing all gains following Tesla’s announcement that it would buy and accept the digital asset as payment in February. In anticipation of the publishment of the Fed’s April meeting minutes, investors continue to speculate on whether the central bank will taper its bond purchases and raise interest rates.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields continue to inch higher. The U.W. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.635%. There is light economic news Today with the Fed releasing FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET and 2 scheduled speaking arrangements for Fed Presidents Bullard and Bostic. Since mid-March treasury yields have traded at a tighter range, with the 10-Year pivoting between a low of 1.52% and a high of 1.75%. Mixed economic releases seemed to have somewhat stalled upward trajectory for the time being. Mortgage rates have remained relatively low as well with the average 30 Yr fixed at 2.94% and the average 15 Yr fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s most recent rate survey.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields continue to inch higher. The U.W. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.635%. There is light economic news Today with the Fed releasing FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET and 2 scheduled speaking arrangements for Fed Presidents Bullard and Bostic. Since mid-March treasury yields have traded at a tighter range, with the 10-Year pivoting between a low of 1.52% and a high of 1.75%. Mixed economic releases seemed to have somewhat stalled upward trajectory for the time being. Mortgage rates have remained relatively low as well with the average 30 Yr fixed at 2.94% and the average 15 Yr fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s most recent rate survey.
Market Commentary [5.18.21]
Stocks were little changed, indicating major indexes may be positioned for a muted rebound following recent choppy trading sessions on concerns of inflation. The Nasdaq led benchmarks, rising 0.3% and setting technology shares to mitigate some losses after a tumultuous four weeks, the index’s worst streak since August 2019. Minutes from the latest Fed meeting are due to be released on Wednesday and may offer investors insight on inflation pressure and a potential timeline for tapering stimulus.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. U.S. home builders started construction at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.57 million in April, a 9.5% decrease from the previous month. Compared to April 2020, starts are up 67%. The pace of permits also increased in March to a seasonally-adjusted pace of 1.76 million, up 0.3% from March and 61% higher than a year ago. Raw material shortages have plagued builders in recent months, which has also caused an increase in pricing of raw materials like lumber.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. U.S. home builders started construction at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.57 million in April, a 9.5% decrease from the previous month. Compared to April 2020, starts are up 67%. The pace of permits also increased in March to a seasonally-adjusted pace of 1.76 million, up 0.3% from March and 61% higher than a year ago. Raw material shortages have plagued builders in recent months, which has also caused an increase in pricing of raw materials like lumber.
Market Commentary [5.17.21]
Stocks opened lower as earnings season winds down and focus remains on the longevity of a recent rise in inflation. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, slipping over 0.5% following Friday’s rebound in a week that saw the S&P 500 post its biggest decline since February. The Nasdaq has fallen for four straight weeks, its longest streak since 2019 as technology shares continue to experience vulnerability due to looming concerns of inflation. Overseas, Asian markets were mixed as the SSE advanced 0.8% after new data showed China’s industrial output jumped nearly 10% year over year in April while the Taiex fell 3% in addition to last week’s 8% pullback as authorities impose restrictive measures to combat Covid-19 spikes in parts of Taiwan.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields start the week slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.644%. There is light economic news Today with the Empire State manufacturing index that showed a slight decline since the previous reading, but still came in slightly better than expectations. NAHM home builder’s index will be released at 10 am ET as well, for another look at home building strength amidst raw material shortages, increased building cost, and limited housing inventory mixed with high demand. Economists are expecting the same index for May as seen in April.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields start the week slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.644%. There is light economic news Today with the Empire State manufacturing index that showed a slight decline since the previous reading, but still came in slightly better than expectations. NAHM home builder’s index will be released at 10 am ET as well, for another look at home building strength amidst raw material shortages, increased building cost, and limited housing inventory mixed with high demand. Economists are expecting the same index for May as seen in April.
Market Commentary [5.14.21]
Stocks opened higher for a second consecutive day as energy and technology shares lead benchmarks. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising over 1% while the S&P 500 and DJIA improved 0.8% and 0.7% respectively following a turbulent week and the market’s biggest retreat in 11 weeks. As markets appear to rebalance and focus shifts to economic rebound, the narrative of moving to value stocks over growth stocks weighs on investor sentiment as speculation continues to loom over interest rates and the Fed’s current policy. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe improved 0.8% and Asian markets rallied, including Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 2.3% and China’s Shanghai Composite rising 1.8%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields pulled back on weak retail sales data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.645%. Following Wednesday’s higher than expected inflation reading, Retail Sales came in flat this morning, as stimulus money spending fades. Economists are still predicting strong growth ahead as savings rates continue to increase and the economy continues to reopen across the country.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields pulled back on weak retail sales data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.645%. Following Wednesday’s higher than expected inflation reading, Retail Sales came in flat this morning, as stimulus money spending fades. Economists are still predicting strong growth ahead as savings rates continue to increase and the economy continues to reopen across the country.
Market Commentary [5.13.21]
Stocks opened higher following a three-day slide as producer prices increased in April and jobless claims declined. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes gaining over a point while the S&P 500 improved by over 0.5% after its biggest one-day drop since February. Following recent surging CPI data, investors view the broader markets are hedging against the possibility it persists, which could force the Fed to revise its current policy despite sentiment that the April was a one-off reopening burst. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe fell 0.5% on disappointing earnings reports.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.69%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new post pandemic low of 473,000 last week. This was also below expectations of 490,000. Continuing claims have remained steady the past few weeks though. Continuing claims came in at 3.655 million vs 3.65 million expected. Producer pricing increased 6.2% in April compared to last year, the largest spike seen in tracking PPI since 2010. A sharp jump in steel mill products contributed to the leap in producer prices in April. Prices for beef, veal, pork, residential natural gas, plastic resins and materials and dairy products also moved higher last month.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.69%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new post pandemic low of 473,000 last week. This was also below expectations of 490,000. Continuing claims have remained steady the past few weeks though. Continuing claims came in at 3.655 million vs 3.65 million expected. Producer pricing increased 6.2% in April compared to last year, the largest spike seen in tracking PPI since 2010. A sharp jump in steel mill products contributed to the leap in producer prices in April. Prices for beef, veal, pork, residential natural gas, plastic resins and materials and dairy products also moved higher last month.
Market Commentary [5.12.21]
Stocks opened lower following fresh data that consumer prices increased at a higher rate than expected in April. The DJIA extended losses after its biggest drop since February on Tuesday while the S&P 500 posted its two largest declines since the beginning of March and the Nasdaq slipped 1.3%. Concerns of inflation continue to take the bulk of investor attention as hiring difficulties in addition to rising commodity prices and supply chain blockages stoke speculation that the Fed may have to revise their stance on lower rates earlier than planned. Overseas, markets were mixed as the Stoxx Europe 600 ticked up following its biggest decline since December while Taiwan’s Taiex fell over 4% after the government tightened coronavirus restrictions.
Bond pricing worsened into Yesterday’s close as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.615%. April’s consumer price index, expected to have increased 0.2% over the previous month, equating to a 3.6% increase over the past year was exceeded by a 4.2% increase in the latest report. A move this large has not been seen since 2011. CPI excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.3% with a 2.3% increase since last year. Rising inflation is of concern for investors, however the Federal Reserve has reiterated that any increase in prices should be transitory.
Bond pricing worsened into Yesterday’s close as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.615%. April’s consumer price index, expected to have increased 0.2% over the previous month, equating to a 3.6% increase over the past year was exceeded by a 4.2% increase in the latest report. A move this large has not been seen since 2011. CPI excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.3% with a 2.3% increase since last year. Rising inflation is of concern for investors, however the Federal Reserve has reiterated that any increase in prices should be transitory.
Market Commentary [5.11.21]
Stocks opened lower following a selloff in technology stocks amid increasing concerns on inflation. The three major indexes fell in early trading, led by the Nasdaq dropping over 2%. Supply chain bottlenecks and the recent surge in commodity prices added to investor sentiment that a steep climb of inflation could be likely in the coming months. Growth stocks that led the market’s rally last spring are now being evaluated for their high valuations, leading to the consideration of a broader selloff. There is speculation that the Fed may look into paring back its easy money policies sooner than expected, however policy makers stressed that the central bank will not be swayed by on-off price increases driven by economic reopening.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat, awaiting Job Opening data to be released at 9 am ET. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently 1.607%. Economists are expecting 7.5 million job openings for March. The previous reading came in at 7.4 million. Job openings have increased over the past few months, with restrictions going away. Food Services, Arts and Entertainment, as well as Recreation have all seen gains with lifted restrictions. Many are now concerned that ongoing stimulus and unemployment benefits may keep many from re-joining the workforce, as recent unemployment numbers have slowed and been relatively flat while job openings continue to rise.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat, awaiting Job Opening data to be released at 9 am ET. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently 1.607%. Economists are expecting 7.5 million job openings for March. The previous reading came in at 7.4 million. Job openings have increased over the past few months, with restrictions going away. Food Services, Arts and Entertainment, as well as Recreation have all seen gains with lifted restrictions. Many are now concerned that ongoing stimulus and unemployment benefits may keep many from re-joining the workforce, as recent unemployment numbers have slowed and been relatively flat while job openings continue to rise.
Market Commentary [5.10.21]
Stocks opened mixed following another record close for the S&P 500 as surging commodity prices lead to concerns of inflation impacting economic rebound and the recent stock rally. The Nasdaq started 0.5% lower as investors are still hesitant to put more into expensive tech shares with the fear that higher inflation would erode the value of their future earnings. Copper hit a new record, rising just under 2% and iron ore futures jumped more than 10% as a demand for metals used in manufacturing and construction increased, bolstering prices. The U.S. CPI report on Wednesday is forecast to indicate that price pressures increased in April.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady this morning amidst no economic releases. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.575%. Investor focus this week will likely turn to March job openings data out tomorrow and inflation data, due out Wednesday. Recent jobs data showed much fewer job adds than expected. Rates are holding steady as well. According to the latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey, the average 30 Year Fxd rate was 2.96%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate was 2.3% as of 5/6/21. Mixed economic and jobs data has kept treasury yields in check and rates relatively flat the past week.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady this morning amidst no economic releases. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.575%. Investor focus this week will likely turn to March job openings data out tomorrow and inflation data, due out Wednesday. Recent jobs data showed much fewer job adds than expected. Rates are holding steady as well. According to the latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey, the average 30 Year Fxd rate was 2.96%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate was 2.3% as of 5/6/21. Mixed economic and jobs data has kept treasury yields in check and rates relatively flat the past week.
Market Commentary [5.07.21]
Stocks opened mixed on weaker than expected jobs data, easing concerns of an inflation spike and cutback on stimulus. The Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.5% as investors move back to major technology companies flush with cash. Despite the surprising jobs data, investor sentiment remains that the FED will continue its pledge to refrain from tightening monetary policy until the labor market is recovered, suggesting a potential second week of muted gains.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat ahead of market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.57%. Last month’s unemployment report showed a drop to 6%. Economists are expecting another slight drop to 5.8% with this morning’s release. The labor market has struggled to recover, mainly amongst service based jobs that were compromised during partial shutdowns that only recently have been lifted in some states. Additional stimulus, increased demand for services, and re-openings have fueled economic growth in the past couple of months which in turn has supported job growth in some of the hardest hit sectors.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat ahead of market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.57%. Last month’s unemployment report showed a drop to 6%. Economists are expecting another slight drop to 5.8% with this morning’s release. The labor market has struggled to recover, mainly amongst service based jobs that were compromised during partial shutdowns that only recently have been lifted in some states. Additional stimulus, increased demand for services, and re-openings have fueled economic growth in the past couple of months which in turn has supported job growth in some of the hardest hit sectors.
Market Commentary [5.06.21]
Stocks opened mixed following improved labor data as investors continue to assess quarterly earnings reports. The S&P 500 was relatively flat as over 80% of its listed 381 companies that have reported earnings have exceed expectations. The DJIA ticked up in early trading following its 22nd record close for 2021. There is some concern among investors that although companies are surpassing projections, the response in their share prices may not correlate and coupled with volatility in the tech sector, could indicate the slowing of the rally that began in March.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. Jobless claims fell to 498,000 for the week ended March 1, below estimates of 527,000. While there is still a little ways to go for the jobs market, improvement has been seen in recent weeks as we move toward pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims remain at 3.69 million, a bit above the last reading of 3.65 million. Productivity increased 5.4% for Q1 while output and hours worked both increased 8.4% and 2.9% respectively. Overall, labor costs declined in Q1, the net effect of a 5.1% increase in hourly compensation and a 5.4% increase in productivity.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. Jobless claims fell to 498,000 for the week ended March 1, below estimates of 527,000. While there is still a little ways to go for the jobs market, improvement has been seen in recent weeks as we move toward pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims remain at 3.69 million, a bit above the last reading of 3.65 million. Productivity increased 5.4% for Q1 while output and hours worked both increased 8.4% and 2.9% respectively. Overall, labor costs declined in Q1, the net effect of a 5.1% increase in hourly compensation and a 5.4% increase in productivity.
Market Commentary [5.05.21]
Stocks opened higher following a rebound in technology shares as concerns of inflation potentially eased after markets Tuesday. The S&P 500 improved 0.4% while the Nasdaq rose 0.6% after yesterday’s decline. Treasury Secretary Yellen made clarifications on her earlier comments that the Fed may need to consider interest rate hikes by stating that it was not her prediction or recommendation and that inflation is not likely to be a problem, though the Fed could handle the issue should it arise. Analysts are looking towards the second half of the year for inflation concerns with the sentiment that stocks may continue to rally so long as investors agree with the Fed’s view that recent increasing inflation will not exceed control.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.601%. Private sector employment saw an increase of 742,000 jobs in April according to the latest ADP Employment Report. The gains were spread evenly across small, medium and large businesses. Service businesses made up the bulk of the gains with over 636,000 job adds, 237,000 of which were leisure and hospitality based as corona based restrictions continue to lift and demand has increased in those areas. This is the strongest reading since September 2020, with job gains totaling more than 1.3 million over the last two months. There is still a ways to go to be back to pre-pandemic job levels, but the last two months have improved the outlook.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.601%. Private sector employment saw an increase of 742,000 jobs in April according to the latest ADP Employment Report. The gains were spread evenly across small, medium and large businesses. Service businesses made up the bulk of the gains with over 636,000 job adds, 237,000 of which were leisure and hospitality based as corona based restrictions continue to lift and demand has increased in those areas. This is the strongest reading since September 2020, with job gains totaling more than 1.3 million over the last two months. There is still a ways to go to be back to pre-pandemic job levels, but the last two months have improved the outlook.
Market Commentary [5.04.21]
Stocks opened lower following investors flooding into shares of economically sensitive companies and pulling back from technology, creating a divergence in indexes at the start of May. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 1.0% while the S&P 500 slid 0.5% in early trading. Energy and banking stocks have led the shift away from tech as investors position to bet on companies most likely to benefit from the economic recovery. Focus has shifted increasing towards the Fed’s next addressment of its monetary policy given that the market has already priced in a strong recovery and earnings season has exceeded expectations to this point.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $74.4 billion as exports rose 6.6%. Fresh stimulus fueled increased consumer demand for U.S. imported goods to a record high in March. Amongst the list of popular items were toys, furniture, cellphones, and automobiles. Total imports totaled $274.5 billion for the month, outpacing a prior record of $266.7 billion in October of 2018.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $74.4 billion as exports rose 6.6%. Fresh stimulus fueled increased consumer demand for U.S. imported goods to a record high in March. Amongst the list of popular items were toys, furniture, cellphones, and automobiles. Total imports totaled $274.5 billion for the month, outpacing a prior record of $266.7 billion in October of 2018.
Market Commentary [5.03.21]
Stocks opened higher in anticipation of U.S. manufacturing data releases later this morning. The DJIA led indexes, climbing 0.6% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.3% following its best month since November. More than half of the companies listed on the S&P 500 have reported earnings with nearly 90% exceeding projections. Moderna climbed in early trading after the drugmaker committed to supplying up to 500 million doses of its Covid-19 shot in a global vaccination effort. Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak in a virtual conference later today with investors likely to parse details looking for insights on the recovering economy and inflation.
Bond pricing is losing a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.619%. Small business owners are feeling more confident about recovery according to recent economic surveys. Friday’s releases also fueled confidence as personal income and spending rose, which has caused a rise in some prices as well. Today’s economic releases include manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing and construction spending along with motor vehicle sales. The manufacturing industry has lagged somewhat early in the recovery as supply of needed materials have been scarce against pent up demand fueled by stimulus. Mortgage rates are holding somewhat steady after rising from early February. The average 30 YR Fixed is at 2.98% and the average 15 YR Fixed is at 2.31% according to Freddie Mac’s Survey as of 4/29.
Bond pricing is losing a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.619%. Small business owners are feeling more confident about recovery according to recent economic surveys. Friday’s releases also fueled confidence as personal income and spending rose, which has caused a rise in some prices as well. Today’s economic releases include manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing and construction spending along with motor vehicle sales. The manufacturing industry has lagged somewhat early in the recovery as supply of needed materials have been scarce against pent up demand fueled by stimulus. Mortgage rates are holding somewhat steady after rising from early February. The average 30 YR Fixed is at 2.98% and the average 15 YR Fixed is at 2.31% according to Freddie Mac’s Survey as of 4/29.
Market Commentary [4.30.21]
Stocks opened lower as increasing Covid-19 infections in parts of the world stoke concerns on supply chains and potential inflation. The S&P 500 led indexes at 0.6% lower but is still on track to post its best month since November after closing at another record on Thursday. New variants in Brazil and India are threatening global travel, impacting supply chains and inhibiting the pace of recovery that fueled the investor optimism that pushed indexes higher earlier in the week. New economic data in China showed that manufacturing fell short of expectations in April due to supply shortages, logistics jams and greater delivery costs. Overseas, most indexes in Asia declined by the close of trading, led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping nearly 2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.637%. U.S. Household income rose a whopping 21% in March with stimulus anticipated to help a swift recovery. The personal savings rate rose to 27.6% from 13.9% a month earlier. Consumer spending also increased for March by 8.1%, with households spending on big ticket items.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.637%. U.S. Household income rose a whopping 21% in March with stimulus anticipated to help a swift recovery. The personal savings rate rose to 27.6% from 13.9% a month earlier. Consumer spending also increased for March by 8.1%, with households spending on big ticket items.
Market Commentary [4.29.21]
Stocks opened higher on positive commentary from Chairman Powell following the Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday. The Nasdaq led indexes climbing nearly 1%, suggesting major tech stocks could drive gains. Mr. Powell reiterated the central bank’s stance on continuing to support the economy while noting improvements on growth and the labor market. He also addressed interest rates, stating that the Fed will hold rates steady until the labor market returns to full strength and inflation reaches an average of 2%. Amazon and Twitter are expected to post quarterly reports after markets close, both stocks were up in premarket trading.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields rise on economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.679%. Another 553,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, a slight decline from the prior week, but above expectations of 540,000. Continuing claims are at 3.66 million, above the 3.59 million expected. New jobless claims have now held below 600,000 for three straight weeks and are at the lows since the pandemic dealt a major blow to the U.S. economy. First quarter GDP for 2021 increased at a 6.4% rate, the second fastest pace growth since the second quarter of 2003. Economic activity soared at the start of 2021 as widespread vaccinations and more stimulus helped get the U.S. closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields rise on economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.679%. Another 553,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, a slight decline from the prior week, but above expectations of 540,000. Continuing claims are at 3.66 million, above the 3.59 million expected. New jobless claims have now held below 600,000 for three straight weeks and are at the lows since the pandemic dealt a major blow to the U.S. economy. First quarter GDP for 2021 increased at a 6.4% rate, the second fastest pace growth since the second quarter of 2003. Economic activity soared at the start of 2021 as widespread vaccinations and more stimulus helped get the U.S. closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Market Commentary [4.28.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors prepare for the final day of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and additional corporate earnings reports. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates and bond purchases unchanged, the focus will be on Chairman Powell’s comments as investors look for indications that discussions on monetary policy will shift in the coming months. President Biden is expected to outline some of his plans to raise taxes on the highest earning Americans, part of a $1.8 trillion proposal in a speech later this evening. Major tech companies including Qualcomm and Apple are set to post quarterly reports today after markets close.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.631%. The international trade deficit grew to $90.6 billion in March, up $3.5 billion from February. Exports of goods for March were $142 billion, an increase of $11.4 billion from February. Imports rose to $232.6 billion, $14.9 billion more than February. Rounds of stimulus have fueled demand for imports in the U.S., while other countries have seen reduced demand for U.S. goods throughout the pandemic.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.631%. The international trade deficit grew to $90.6 billion in March, up $3.5 billion from February. Exports of goods for March were $142 billion, an increase of $11.4 billion from February. Imports rose to $232.6 billion, $14.9 billion more than February. Rounds of stimulus have fueled demand for imports in the U.S., while other countries have seen reduced demand for U.S. goods throughout the pandemic.
Market Commentary [4.27.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors continue to assess earnings reports as officials convene for the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The S&P 500 opened relatively flat following its 24th record high of the year as more than 85% of companies listed on the index that released reports have exceeded analysts’ expectations. The Nasdaq ticked higher after also hitting a record high yesterday, its first since February as some of the biggest technology companies publish quarterly earnings. Microsoft and Alphabet are due to release earnings reports later today after market close.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.584%. February saw the biggest gain in home prices in 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller Home price index report. Home prices rose nationally 12% year over year, up from 11.2% in January. Cities with the largest annualized gains continue to be Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle with gains of 17.4%, 17%, and 15.4% respectively. Even though rates moved higher as well, starting February with 30 year rates near 2.79% and ending the month at 3.27%, demand has remained incredibly strong amidst limited inventory. Most homes are selling in less than half the time they did just a year ago.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.584%. February saw the biggest gain in home prices in 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller Home price index report. Home prices rose nationally 12% year over year, up from 11.2% in January. Cities with the largest annualized gains continue to be Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle with gains of 17.4%, 17%, and 15.4% respectively. Even though rates moved higher as well, starting February with 30 year rates near 2.79% and ending the month at 3.27%, demand has remained incredibly strong amidst limited inventory. Most homes are selling in less than half the time they did just a year ago.
Market Commentary [4.26.21]
Stocks opened higher as corporate earnings season picks up steam with several blue-chip companies set to report results and address valuations this week. The three major indexes ticked higher in early trading, led by the S&P 500 after its first weekly decline since mid-March. Technology shares will be in focus as rich valuations are questioned and projected against elevated Treasury yields. Investors will be parsing for clues on potential changes in tone or outlook as the Federal Reserve initiated its policy meeting this week following releases of strong economic data.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasuries regain upward ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.577%. Durable goods rebounded last month, but supply shortages are still preventing growth. Durable goods saw a 0.5% increase with consumers buying up electronics, appliances, and cars amongst other goods.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasuries regain upward ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.577%. Durable goods rebounded last month, but supply shortages are still preventing growth. Durable goods saw a 0.5% increase with consumers buying up electronics, appliances, and cars amongst other goods.
Market Commentary [4.23.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors await preliminary results from April surveys of U.S. purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services industries later this morning. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% after a nearly 1% drop Thursday following reports on President Biden’s potential higher capital gains taxes. Its been a choppy week for stocks as sentiment has wavered between concerns of rising Covid-19 cases in parts of the world and optimistic economic data including declining weekly jobless claims. Bitcoin fell over 10% and traded below $50,000, continuing its decline since last weekend.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Yields moved slightly this morning as Biden focuses on a new tax plan that will raise taxes on millionaire investors to fund education and other spending priorities. Of note in the plan, a hike from 20% to 39.6% on capital gains for Americans earning more than $1 million. New Home Sales is expected to be released this morning at 10 am ET. Severely limited supply coupled with an uptick in mortgage rates have had influence over the past month as buyers weigh their options. Still, millennials appear to be aging into homeownership in a demographic fueled shift away from renting. Recent rate moves have declined affordability by more than $13,000 in house-buying power. Economists are expecting a rebound to 888,000 from February’s low of 775,000.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Yields moved slightly this morning as Biden focuses on a new tax plan that will raise taxes on millionaire investors to fund education and other spending priorities. Of note in the plan, a hike from 20% to 39.6% on capital gains for Americans earning more than $1 million. New Home Sales is expected to be released this morning at 10 am ET. Severely limited supply coupled with an uptick in mortgage rates have had influence over the past month as buyers weigh their options. Still, millennials appear to be aging into homeownership in a demographic fueled shift away from renting. Recent rate moves have declined affordability by more than $13,000 in house-buying power. Economists are expecting a rebound to 888,000 from February’s low of 775,000.
Market Commentary [4.22.21]
Stocks opened lower following a bounce back Wednesday, erasing most or their losses from earlier in the week. The S&P 500 edged lower in early trading, led by raw material and energy while the DJIA and Nasdaq each slipped 0.2%. Concerns of a coronavirus resurgence has weighted on investor outlook of plans to reopen economic activity as India reported the world’s largest single day rise with over 314,000 new cases. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.4% on tech and utilities while Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.4% led by pharmaceuticals and the Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.2% lower.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.568%. Another 547,000 Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, an improvement coming in below expectations of 603,000. Continuing claims came in at 3.674 million, slightly above the 3.65 million expected. Claims have stepped down from the shutdown highs of 6.1 million last spring. Even though there has been improvement, the labor market has been choppy and the downtrend has come with some bumps higher along the way. Mainly due to the start-stop nature of re-opening across all states. Still the ongoing health risks for some professions make things more difficult to go back to work, primarily in contact-intensive industries.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.568%. Another 547,000 Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, an improvement coming in below expectations of 603,000. Continuing claims came in at 3.674 million, slightly above the 3.65 million expected. Claims have stepped down from the shutdown highs of 6.1 million last spring. Even though there has been improvement, the labor market has been choppy and the downtrend has come with some bumps higher along the way. Mainly due to the start-stop nature of re-opening across all states. Still the ongoing health risks for some professions make things more difficult to go back to work, primarily in contact-intensive industries.
Market Commentary [4.21.21]
Stocks edged lower extending their decline into a third day amid international Covid-19 concerns and disappointing earnings reports. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and is on track for its worst losing streak in nearly two months. The Nasdaq fell 0.3% in early trading after exceeding the 14,000 mark last week as two sell signals were triggered on its GTI Global Strength Indicator in less than a week. The WHO reported that new waves of Covid-19 cases are rising in all regions except Europe, particularly in India and Japan. Netflix fell over 8% as subscriber growth for the first quarter was weaker than expected, Verizon Communications reported losing regular wireless subscribers for the first time in a year.
Bond pricing is improved this morning and treasury yields are flat on no economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.564%. The 10 Year has given up yield over the past week or more and is now just 3 basis points from last week’s low of 1.53%. Still, the trend remains slightly higher on a medium and longer term time frame for treasury yields. For months, there has been a shift toward equities as bond yields remained historically low. There is roughly $59 billion flowing into the bond market year to date. Simultaneously, there is roughly $240 billion flowing into equities. Even though there is a little more room to run in the short run, yields seem to be nearing resistance, with many believing that inflation will remain in check.
Bond pricing is improved this morning and treasury yields are flat on no economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.564%. The 10 Year has given up yield over the past week or more and is now just 3 basis points from last week’s low of 1.53%. Still, the trend remains slightly higher on a medium and longer term time frame for treasury yields. For months, there has been a shift toward equities as bond yields remained historically low. There is roughly $59 billion flowing into the bond market year to date. Simultaneously, there is roughly $240 billion flowing into equities. Even though there is a little more room to run in the short run, yields seem to be nearing resistance, with many believing that inflation will remain in check.
Market Commentary [4.20.21]
Stocks opened lower amid continued releases of corporate earnings as rising international Covid-19 cases temper optimism. The three major indexes slid in early trading, signaling a potential second day of losses led by the DJIA retreating 0.3%. The emphasis of earnings season has been to gauge the outlook for the rest of the year and determine if high valuations on stocks are justified. With share prices near or close to record highs, aided by recent strong economic data, the concern is that expectations may be too high and difficult to meet. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.2% and markets in Asia were mixed.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields await for new directional course. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.605%. According to the MBA, loans in forbearance total roughly 4.6% of servicer’s portfolios, approximately 2.3 million homeowners. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance is roughly 2.5%, while Ginnie Mae has roughly 6.3% of its share in forbearance, with the vast majority in what’s considered an extension phase. All said, forbearance has decreased from the highs seen shortly after the pandemic as noted in the chart below.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields await for new directional course. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.605%. According to the MBA, loans in forbearance total roughly 4.6% of servicer’s portfolios, approximately 2.3 million homeowners. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance is roughly 2.5%, while Ginnie Mae has roughly 6.3% of its share in forbearance, with the vast majority in what’s considered an extension phase. All said, forbearance has decreased from the highs seen shortly after the pandemic as noted in the chart below.
Market Commentary [4.19.21]
Stocks edged lower following indexes closing at all-time highs on Friday as investors continue to assess corporate earnings. The S&P 500 and DJIA each slipped 0.2% in early trading while the Nasdaq started 0.5% lower. Bitcoin improved over 4%, regaining some ground after a 12% drop over the weekend. On Friday, Turkey’s central bank announced that it would ban the use of cryptocurrencies as a form of payment. In Asia, most benchmarks improved by the end of the day with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 1.5% for its best day in over three weeks.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. There are no scheduled economic releases until Thursday of this week. Thursday and Friday have initial jobless claims and New Home Sales respectively. Rates fell slightly in Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey from 4/15/21. The average 30 Year Fixed was 3.04%, down from the prior week’s reading of 3.18%, while the average 15 Year Fixed was 2.35%, down from 2.42% the prior week.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. There are no scheduled economic releases until Thursday of this week. Thursday and Friday have initial jobless claims and New Home Sales respectively. Rates fell slightly in Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey from 4/15/21. The average 30 Year Fixed was 3.04%, down from the prior week’s reading of 3.18%, while the average 15 Year Fixed was 2.35%, down from 2.42% the prior week.
Market Commentary [4.16.21]
Stocks opened higher extending record highs amid continued strong blue-chip earnings reports. The S&P 500 improved 0.4% following another all-time closing high while the DJIA rose 0.5% after also hitting a record high on Thursday. Reports from banks and financial companies in addition to strong economic data has stoked optimism on the recovery as more companies release their earnings. Chinese shares outperformed in Asia with reports indicating an economic surge of over 18% in the first quarter. The Stoxx Europe 600 improved, led by banks and automotive companies and is on track for a seventh consecutive week of advances.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up some ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.592%. New housing starts surged 19.4% coming in at 1.739 million in March, above the forecasted 1.61 million. Soaring lumber prices and other supply constraints could limit builder capacity to boost production and ease the current shortage of homes. Ultimately this could lead to a slow down in housing market momentum if the supply of raw materials continues to dwindle. Building permits also showed growth of 2.7% which was above forecast as many continue to seek new housing in a very limited supply market.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up some ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.592%. New housing starts surged 19.4% coming in at 1.739 million in March, above the forecasted 1.61 million. Soaring lumber prices and other supply constraints could limit builder capacity to boost production and ease the current shortage of homes. Ultimately this could lead to a slow down in housing market momentum if the supply of raw materials continues to dwindle. Building permits also showed growth of 2.7% which was above forecast as many continue to seek new housing in a very limited supply market.
Market Commentary [4.15.21]
Stocks opened higher on strong corporate earnings reports as new labor and economic data exceed expectations. The three major indexes were up in early trading, led by the tech heavy Nasdaq gaining around 1%. The anticipated economic recovery has led investors to focus on shares in energy, travel and banks that are sensitive to a rebound, contributing to benchmarks reaching record highs in 2021. Coinbase rose over 6% in premarket trading following a high of $429 during its debut on Wednesday before closing at $328
Bond pricing and treasury yields re relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.611%. Initial jobless claims fell to a fresh pre-pandemic low of 576,000 last week. This was well below the expected 700,000 claims. Conituing claims rose slightly from the prior week, from 3.727 million to 3.731 million. Retail sales posted favorable numbers this morning, as consumers use stimulus money to splurge. Retail sales jumped 9.8% higher in March, with heavy spending in bars and restaurants as additional corona measures have been lifted. Sporting goods, clothing and food were also at the top of the chart for spending.
Bond pricing and treasury yields re relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.611%. Initial jobless claims fell to a fresh pre-pandemic low of 576,000 last week. This was well below the expected 700,000 claims. Conituing claims rose slightly from the prior week, from 3.727 million to 3.731 million. Retail sales posted favorable numbers this morning, as consumers use stimulus money to splurge. Retail sales jumped 9.8% higher in March, with heavy spending in bars and restaurants as additional corona measures have been lifted. Sporting goods, clothing and food were also at the top of the chart for spending.
Market Commentary [4.14.21]
Stocks edged higher on positive quarterly profit reports of the biggest banks ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s addressment of the economy later today. The S&P 500 opened relatively flat following its 21st record close of 2021 while the DJIA and Nasdaq opened marginally higher. To this point, Fed officials have maintained that they will keep loose monetary policy in place for the foreseeable future with the expectation that any sharp uptick in inflation would be temporary. Prices of cryptocurrencies surged ahead of the public listing of Coinbase Global, led by Bitcoin hitting an all-time high and exceeding $64,000.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields slide. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.632%. According to the government, import prices jumped 1.2% in March, adding to an upward inflation picture. The reading came in higher than expected and on a yearly basis, the index has risen 6.9%. Commodities like gas and oil continue to be at the forefront of demand and price increases. There are several Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day Today. The Fed has remained steady in letting inflation run its course, even if a little higher than expected as long as it takes the jobs market back to full employment.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields slide. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.632%. According to the government, import prices jumped 1.2% in March, adding to an upward inflation picture. The reading came in higher than expected and on a yearly basis, the index has risen 6.9%. Commodities like gas and oil continue to be at the forefront of demand and price increases. There are several Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day Today. The Fed has remained steady in letting inflation run its course, even if a little higher than expected as long as it takes the jobs market back to full employment.
Market Commentary [4.13.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a recommended pause of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as the FDA and CDC review new data involving six reported cases of blood clotting. The S&P 500 was little changed while the DJIA slipped 0.2% and the tech heavy Nasdaq improved 0.4%. Investors continue to assess projections of the economic recovery and potential rise in inflation considering that earlier inflation expectations led to a rise in bond yields and rush out of technology shares last month. Bitcoin rose over 4%, exceeding $63,000 as Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange plans to go public on Wednesday.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields remain stagnant. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Consumer prices surged in March for the fourth month in a row, jumping 0.6%. The rise was mainly due to the rising cost of oil. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months has shot up to 2.6% marking the highest level since the fall of 2018. The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months. Economists are pointing to massive federal stimulus and a rapid decline in corona cases as primary components boosting demand for a wide array of goods and services while key materials are still in short supply. Gasoline rose 9.1% just last month, accounting for almost half the increase in the cost of living
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields remain stagnant. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Consumer prices surged in March for the fourth month in a row, jumping 0.6%. The rise was mainly due to the rising cost of oil. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months has shot up to 2.6% marking the highest level since the fall of 2018. The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months. Economists are pointing to massive federal stimulus and a rapid decline in corona cases as primary components boosting demand for a wide array of goods and services while key materials are still in short supply. Gasoline rose 9.1% just last month, accounting for almost half the increase in the cost of living
Market Commentary [4.12.21]
Stocks edged lower following another record closing for benchmarks on Friday as investors prepare for a week of corporate earnings. The S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower after its 20th record high closing of 2021 while the DJIA and Nasdaq each slipped 0.3%. Shares in tech giants have regained position over the past month, pushing indexes higher as investor concern has been subdued on owning shares sensitive to increasing interest rates given the recent retreat in yields on government bonds. Nuance Communications jumped nearly 20% ahead of the opening bell amid reports that Microsoft is in advanced talks to buy the artificial intelligence company for around $16 billion.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.671%. Services surged in March according to the U.S. ISM Services index. The survey jumped to 63.7% hitting the highest level on record as governments lifted business restrictions and rising vaccinations gave Americans increased confidence to go out and shop, travel or take vacations. Readings above 50% signals that businesses are expanding, with readings above 55% showing signs of broad strength. On the flip side, U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.8% in February, marking the first decline since the shutdown. Weakness was primarily blamed on February’s cold weather followed by lack of key supplies. The factory sector is expected to rebound quickly.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.671%. Services surged in March according to the U.S. ISM Services index. The survey jumped to 63.7% hitting the highest level on record as governments lifted business restrictions and rising vaccinations gave Americans increased confidence to go out and shop, travel or take vacations. Readings above 50% signals that businesses are expanding, with readings above 55% showing signs of broad strength. On the flip side, U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.8% in February, marking the first decline since the shutdown. Weakness was primarily blamed on February’s cold weather followed by lack of key supplies. The factory sector is expected to rebound quickly.
Market Commentary [4.09.21]
Stocks opened mixed following the S&P 500 closing at all-time high on Thursday, the 19th time in 2021. The benchmark is on pace to realize gains for a third straight week, its best streak since last October. The DJIA ticked up 0.2% in early trading while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% as large tech lost some of the week’s gains. Investors are preparing for company quarterly earnings reports to be released starting next week as a gauge of the course of the market in coming weeks.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.685%. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, vs an expected 0.5% gain. The majority of price increase came from a jump in prices for final demand goods. Powell reiterated Thursday, “The recovery remains uneven and incomplete.” as the Federal Reserve has loosened its grip on inflation in hopes of achieving a level of full employment. The Fed feels that the inflation we are seeing is likely temporary as states continue to reopen and things rebound from the pandemic, however, if it lasts past summer the Fed could become “more concerned.”
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.685%. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, vs an expected 0.5% gain. The majority of price increase came from a jump in prices for final demand goods. Powell reiterated Thursday, “The recovery remains uneven and incomplete.” as the Federal Reserve has loosened its grip on inflation in hopes of achieving a level of full employment. The Fed feels that the inflation we are seeing is likely temporary as states continue to reopen and things rebound from the pandemic, however, if it lasts past summer the Fed could become “more concerned.”
Market Commentary [4.08.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting minutes. The S&P 500 improved 0.3% after closing at another record high and is up over 2.5% for the month. The tech heavy Nasdaq advanced over 0.8% as concerns begin to ease on high valuations of growth stocks. The cooling off in bond yields has led to a resurgence is the largest tech companies, climbing over 4% following a tumultuous March.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields teeter lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.649%. U.S. jobless claims totaled 744,000, higher than the estimated 694,000. Unemployment still remains will above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Continuing claims did drop marginally to 3.73 million, the lowest level seen since March 21, 2020 just after the pandemic hit and companies instituted layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Fed President and Chair James Bullard and Jerome Powell both have speeches later Today, with Powell highlighting the global economy.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields teeter lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.649%. U.S. jobless claims totaled 744,000, higher than the estimated 694,000. Unemployment still remains will above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Continuing claims did drop marginally to 3.73 million, the lowest level seen since March 21, 2020 just after the pandemic hit and companies instituted layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Fed President and Chair James Bullard and Jerome Powell both have speeches later Today, with Powell highlighting the global economy.
Market Commentary [4.07.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors anticipate the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting minutes later today. The S&P 500 and DJIA edged higher while the Nasdaq dropped 0.1% after a slight pull back on Tuesday following record highs earlier in the week. As sentiment continues to improve, investors are looking toward travel and leisure companies to get a boost as the economy returns to normalcy. Economically sensitive sectors such as banks and energy are also the focus of investors as many see them to stand to benefit the most from reopening.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.665%. The U.S trade deficit has jumped 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion as Americans spend on imports. The deficit was expected to come in at $70.5 billion. Stimulus packages have put Americans in a position to spend more than citizens of other countries, resulting in Americans snapping up imported goods at a faster pace, while overseas purchases of U.S. products lag well behind. The level of imports is now 5% higher than a year ago, with imported oil and industrial supplies the biggest commodities. FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET Today with several Fed speakers taking the podium throughout the day as well.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.665%. The U.S trade deficit has jumped 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion as Americans spend on imports. The deficit was expected to come in at $70.5 billion. Stimulus packages have put Americans in a position to spend more than citizens of other countries, resulting in Americans snapping up imported goods at a faster pace, while overseas purchases of U.S. products lag well behind. The level of imports is now 5% higher than a year ago, with imported oil and industrial supplies the biggest commodities. FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET Today with several Fed speakers taking the podium throughout the day as well.
Market Commentary [4.06.21]
Stocks edged lower following a three-day rally as the S&P 500 and DJIA closed at record highs on Monday. The S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower, led by technology and the DJIA dropped 0.2% after reaching a new peak for the 18th time this year. Investors have bought stocks in record numbers during the first quarter in 2021 in part due to government stimulus and anticipation of economic recovery which has led shares to reach new highs as sentiment increases that vaccination efforts will overcome concerns of higher bond yields impacting the rally. The Cboe Volatility Index edged down to 17.8 its lowest level since February 2020.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.693%. Today’s releases will include IMF’s World Economic Outlook and IMF’s Global Financial Stability report as well as U.S. job openings. It will be interesting to see the global impact and potential recovery from the pandemic and resulting shutdown. The U.S. seems to be on a short term path to recovery with improved jobs numbers in recent weeks and a bit of inflation for added growth. Treasury yields have been marching higher since August, but have picked up steam since the beginning of January. The 10 Year Treasury saw a low near 0.51% on the yield in August, but rallied to 1.00% in early January and then spiked to recent levels near 1.75% over the past two months.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.693%. Today’s releases will include IMF’s World Economic Outlook and IMF’s Global Financial Stability report as well as U.S. job openings. It will be interesting to see the global impact and potential recovery from the pandemic and resulting shutdown. The U.S. seems to be on a short term path to recovery with improved jobs numbers in recent weeks and a bit of inflation for added growth. Treasury yields have been marching higher since August, but have picked up steam since the beginning of January. The 10 Year Treasury saw a low near 0.51% on the yield in August, but rallied to 1.00% in early January and then spiked to recent levels near 1.75% over the past two months.
Market Commentary [4.05.21]
Stocks opened higher on better than expected jobs reports as investors anticipate new data from the Institute for Supply Management's services index later this morning. The U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March vs 675,000 estimated adds. The unemployment rate has now fallen to 6%, down from 6.2% in February. Overall the U.S. has regained 13.7 million jobs, which equates to 62% of the 22.2 million jobs lost in the pandemic. Vaccination efforts are said to have contributed to companies step up in hiring. Leisure and hospitality still show the strongest gains with 280,000 new jobs, however even with the continued gains, the sector remains 3.1 million below its pre-pandemic level.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat at the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.727%. Factory orders and Manufacturing data will be released later this morning. Manufacturing lagged through the shutdown but rebounded with re-openings and higher demand for raw materials as consumers have come out of quarantine. Mortgage rates continue to creep higher with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 Year Fixed is 3.18% and the average 15 Year Fixed is 2.45% according to Freddie Mac’s 4/1/21 Rate Survey. Rates have been on an upward run since early February, with the average surveyed rates rising almost 50 bps over that time frame.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat at the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.727%. Factory orders and Manufacturing data will be released later this morning. Manufacturing lagged through the shutdown but rebounded with re-openings and higher demand for raw materials as consumers have come out of quarantine. Mortgage rates continue to creep higher with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 Year Fixed is 3.18% and the average 15 Year Fixed is 2.45% according to Freddie Mac’s 4/1/21 Rate Survey. Rates have been on an upward run since early February, with the average surveyed rates rising almost 50 bps over that time frame.
Market Commentary [4.01.21]
Stocks opened higher following the S&P 500 closing out a fourth consecutive quarterly advance, reaching above 4,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq rose over 1.5% as tech shares improve ahead of fresh economic data starting in the second quarter. Investor sentiment has improved recently with the prospect of economic growth along with widespread vaccinations and new spending programs from the Biden administration though concern still looms over rising bond yields and new lockdowns in Europe and Canada. Oil prices wavered after an OPEC meeting in which analysts expect significant output cuts to continue to bolster the market after a recent slide in prices.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields move near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.707%. The 10-year yield has risen quickly in recent months, up from less than 1% at the start of the year, amid concerns about inflation. The Fed has announced that it will let inflation run hotter as long as it helps achieve full employment. Ultimately, debt will seek its equilibrium level and some are starting to believe that with this degree of fiscal stimulus in place, equilibrium interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now. Initial jobless claims fell to 675,000 last week vs a forecasted 684,000. 3.75 million remain on continuing claims. The jobs market has been stubborn with mixed re-openings across the states leaving some in service sectors jobless longer, but as more have become vaccinated and looser restrictions have become more common, jobs are rebounding. It will still take some time though to reach pre-pandemic levels of 200,000 jobless claims per week.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields move near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.707%. The 10-year yield has risen quickly in recent months, up from less than 1% at the start of the year, amid concerns about inflation. The Fed has announced that it will let inflation run hotter as long as it helps achieve full employment. Ultimately, debt will seek its equilibrium level and some are starting to believe that with this degree of fiscal stimulus in place, equilibrium interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now. Initial jobless claims fell to 675,000 last week vs a forecasted 684,000. 3.75 million remain on continuing claims. The jobs market has been stubborn with mixed re-openings across the states leaving some in service sectors jobless longer, but as more have become vaccinated and looser restrictions have become more common, jobs are rebounding. It will still take some time though to reach pre-pandemic levels of 200,000 jobless claims per week.
Market Commentary [3.31.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors anticipate details of President Biden’s $2.25 trillion spending program. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and the Nasdaq opened 0.6% higher following a day of losses for giant tech companies. President Biden’s multitrillion dollar program, targeted at infrastructure, green energy, manufacturing and housing has money managers speculating the impact on taxpayers to fund the initiative. The President has indicated that raising tax rates of the highest earning citizens as well as corporations would be a portion of the funding for the program.
Bond pricing remains relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hover near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.723%. ADP data for March showed a gain of 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and a good jump above the 176,000 jobs added in February. Job growth in the service sector continues to outpace monthly averages, as the economy recovers, this was the hardest hit sector which is now poised for explosive growth to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales will also be released at 10a.m. ET for another view into what has been one of the strongest industries throughout the pandemic as consumers have shifted to school and work from home and have gained additional space through home purchases. Economist are forecasting a drop of 3.1% in Pending Sales as limited inventory continues to hold back eligible buyers.
Bond pricing remains relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hover near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.723%. ADP data for March showed a gain of 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and a good jump above the 176,000 jobs added in February. Job growth in the service sector continues to outpace monthly averages, as the economy recovers, this was the hardest hit sector which is now poised for explosive growth to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales will also be released at 10a.m. ET for another view into what has been one of the strongest industries throughout the pandemic as consumers have shifted to school and work from home and have gained additional space through home purchases. Economist are forecasting a drop of 3.1% in Pending Sales as limited inventory continues to hold back eligible buyers.
Market Commentary [3.30.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors continue to exit government bonds in anticipation of a brightening economic outlook as well as concerns of higher inflation. The S&P 500 ticked 0.3% lower while the Nasdaq opened 0.6% lower as investors move away from richly valued tech to stocks positioned to benefit the most from economic recovery such as energy, financials and travel. Investors are still closely following the fallout from Archegos Capital Management’s liquidation of over $30 billion in stocks as banks handling its trading were prompted to unwind positions, warning that they too may still be set to incur losses.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.753%, taking out a January 2020 high earlier in trading. Covid vaccine rollouts and planned infrastructure spending are boosting hopes of a broad U.S. economic recovery. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 11.2% over the past year ending in January. Home price growth has now accelerated to a 15-year high as supply continues to remain near all time lows. In January, there were 1.03 million homes for sale, the lowest level in data going back to 1982, according to the NAR.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.753%, taking out a January 2020 high earlier in trading. Covid vaccine rollouts and planned infrastructure spending are boosting hopes of a broad U.S. economic recovery. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 11.2% over the past year ending in January. Home price growth has now accelerated to a 15-year high as supply continues to remain near all time lows. In January, there were 1.03 million homes for sale, the lowest level in data going back to 1982, according to the NAR.
Market Commentary [3.29.21]
Stocks opened lower following a $30 billion sell off in block trades on Friday, leading to concern that global banks involved could face sharp losses. The block trades by Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley were initiated after capital management company, Archegos failed to meet margin calls. ViacomCBS and Discovery were two companies involved in the massive sell off, each dropping over 25% last week with ViacomCBS losing an additional 2% in early trading. Investors will now look to reassess their positions in anticipation of further precipitous declines of stocks that have rallied steeply this year.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on light economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.666%. Mortgage rates have continued to rise with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 YR fixed was 3.17%, up from 3.09% and the average 15 YR Fixed was 2.45% up from 2.40% according to Freddie Mac’s March 25th rate survey. The recent rise in rates has slowed refinance activity, with applications dropping to its slowest pace since September of 2020. Still purchase activity remains strong against limited housing inventory, which is putting further upward pressure on home prices
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on light economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.666%. Mortgage rates have continued to rise with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 YR fixed was 3.17%, up from 3.09% and the average 15 YR Fixed was 2.45% up from 2.40% according to Freddie Mac’s March 25th rate survey. The recent rise in rates has slowed refinance activity, with applications dropping to its slowest pace since September of 2020. Still purchase activity remains strong against limited housing inventory, which is putting further upward pressure on home prices
Market Commentary [3.26.21]
Stocks opened higher on optimism of vaccine rollouts following the Fed announcing that temporary limits on dividend payments and share buybacks will end for most banks after June. The S&P 500 was up nearly 0.5% led by financials, snapping a two-day losing streak on Thursday while the Nasdaq edged up 0.1% in early trading. Investors continue to monitor the container ship blocking the Suez Canal as officials warn that the traffic of crude oil and petroleum products through the channel could take days to weeks to resume.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields regain higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.658%. U.S. consumer spending fell more than expected in February, dropping 1.0% after a healthy rebound in January of 3.4%. Personal income also tumbled 7.1% after surging 10.1% in January. Despite these moves, core inflation moved upward 0.1% as expected, slightly down from January’s release of 0.2%.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields regain higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.658%. U.S. consumer spending fell more than expected in February, dropping 1.0% after a healthy rebound in January of 3.4%. Personal income also tumbled 7.1% after surging 10.1% in January. Despite these moves, core inflation moved upward 0.1% as expected, slightly down from January’s release of 0.2%.
Market Commentary [3.25.21]
Stocks opened lower and are on track for a third day of losses despite stronger than expected data in the labor market. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5% led by energy and industrials while the tech heavy Nasdaq fell by nearly 1%. Investors are monitoring the surge in demand for products spurred by government relief spending and vaccine rollouts as supply chain constraints increase due to extensions of Covid-19 lockdowns. Focus will turn to the U.S. Treasury auction of 7 year notes today as poor demand during last month’s sale helped lead to a global selloff in government debt and interest-rate sensitive stocks.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. Another 684,000 filed for unemployment last week, less than the expected 730,000. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 3.87 million vs. 4 million expected. Even though claims have come down considerably from the highs, they remain elevated from 2019 levels, when just over 200,000 claims were seen per week. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, claims peaked at 665,000. GDP also saw positive growth, with growth in the 4th quarter at 4.3% on an annual pace. Another sign that the economy appears to be in recovery after the coronavirus outbreak
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. Another 684,000 filed for unemployment last week, less than the expected 730,000. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 3.87 million vs. 4 million expected. Even though claims have come down considerably from the highs, they remain elevated from 2019 levels, when just over 200,000 claims were seen per week. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, claims peaked at 665,000. GDP also saw positive growth, with growth in the 4th quarter at 4.3% on an annual pace. Another sign that the economy appears to be in recovery after the coronavirus outbreak
Market Commentary [3.24.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors continue to monitor rising Covid-19 cases in Europe as the House of Financial Services committee prepares for a second day of testimony. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% in early trading led by energy, financials and industrials while the Nasdaq was relatively flat as tech shares attempt to recover ground following significant losses in recent weeks. The flare up in the pandemic in Europe has led to anticipation of the EU drafting emergency legislation that would allow it to control exports of Covid-19 vaccines. In Asia, benchmarks in Hong Kong and Japan both fell by more than 2% by close of trading, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index entered correction territory after dropping more than 10% from a peak in February.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR treasury yield is currently 1.64%. New orders for U.S. made capital goods fell unexpectedly in February, pointing toward some cooling down in business spending on equipment after recent strong growth. Overall durable goods fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.8% increase. The results were a stark contrast to January’s 3.4% increase as well. Several Fed speakers take the podium Today along with Powel and Yellen testifying before Congress on economic activity.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR treasury yield is currently 1.64%. New orders for U.S. made capital goods fell unexpectedly in February, pointing toward some cooling down in business spending on equipment after recent strong growth. Overall durable goods fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.8% increase. The results were a stark contrast to January’s 3.4% increase as well. Several Fed speakers take the podium Today along with Powel and Yellen testifying before Congress on economic activity.
Market Commentary [3.23.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors prepare for the first joint appearance of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell at the U.S. House Financial Services committee over the next two days. Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank’s stance on continuing to provide support to the economy through loose monetary policy. The speed of the recovery and possibility of increasing inflation paired with rising Covid-19 cases in Europe have left investors skeptical about plans for interest rates and bond purchases. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged lower as France and Italy extended coronavirus restrictions and Germany imposed another four week lockdown.
Bond Pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. In released remarks, Powell said that the economy progressed more quickly than expected and looks to be strengthening, however, hard hit sectors still “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall” so the recovery still has a ways to go. Existing home sales plunged 6.6% last month to 6.22 million units. Economists are expecting a slight rebound to 6.5 million units with this morning’s release scheduled for 10 a.m. ET.
Bond Pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. In released remarks, Powell said that the economy progressed more quickly than expected and looks to be strengthening, however, hard hit sectors still “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall” so the recovery still has a ways to go. Existing home sales plunged 6.6% last month to 6.22 million units. Economists are expecting a slight rebound to 6.5 million units with this morning’s release scheduled for 10 a.m. ET.
Market Commentary [3.22.21]
Stocks edged higher, led by technology shares as Treasury yields drop slightly following a volatile week. The S&P 500 ticked up in early trading while the Nasdaq rose over 0.5% indicating that tech stocks may push higher early in the week. Shares of AstraZeneca rose 2% after announcing that its Covid-19 vaccine was safe and 79% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in U.S. clinical trials. Turkey’s lira declined 9% after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved to replace the country’s third central bank chief in less than two years.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding near recent highs this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. The empire state index, a measure of business activity in New York, jumped to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, signaling economic growth in a state that has been hampered by shutdowns. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in business activity in New York since November of 2018. New orders and shipments were all up substantially, with businesses reporting optimistic conditions in the next six months given demand and inventory levels. This week is full of economic data with retail sales Tomorrow, building permits and housing starts Wednesday and initial jobless claims Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding near recent highs this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. The empire state index, a measure of business activity in New York, jumped to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, signaling economic growth in a state that has been hampered by shutdowns. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in business activity in New York since November of 2018. New orders and shipments were all up substantially, with businesses reporting optimistic conditions in the next six months given demand and inventory levels. This week is full of economic data with retail sales Tomorrow, building permits and housing starts Wednesday and initial jobless claims Thursday.
