Market Commentary [4.13.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a recommended pause of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as the FDA and CDC review new data involving six reported cases of blood clotting. The S&P 500 was little changed while the DJIA slipped 0.2% and the tech heavy Nasdaq improved 0.4%. Investors continue to assess projections of the economic recovery and potential rise in inflation considering that earlier inflation expectations led to a rise in bond yields and rush out of technology shares last month. Bitcoin rose over 4%, exceeding $63,000 as Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange plans to go public on Wednesday.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields remain stagnant. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Consumer prices surged in March for the fourth month in a row, jumping 0.6%. The rise was mainly due to the rising cost of oil. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months has shot up to 2.6% marking the highest level since the fall of 2018. The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months. Economists are pointing to massive federal stimulus and a rapid decline in corona cases as primary components boosting demand for a wide array of goods and services while key materials are still in short supply. Gasoline rose 9.1% just last month, accounting for almost half the increase in the cost of living
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields remain stagnant. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Consumer prices surged in March for the fourth month in a row, jumping 0.6%. The rise was mainly due to the rising cost of oil. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months has shot up to 2.6% marking the highest level since the fall of 2018. The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months. Economists are pointing to massive federal stimulus and a rapid decline in corona cases as primary components boosting demand for a wide array of goods and services while key materials are still in short supply. Gasoline rose 9.1% just last month, accounting for almost half the increase in the cost of living
Market Commentary [4.12.21]
Stocks edged lower following another record closing for benchmarks on Friday as investors prepare for a week of corporate earnings. The S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower after its 20th record high closing of 2021 while the DJIA and Nasdaq each slipped 0.3%. Shares in tech giants have regained position over the past month, pushing indexes higher as investor concern has been subdued on owning shares sensitive to increasing interest rates given the recent retreat in yields on government bonds. Nuance Communications jumped nearly 20% ahead of the opening bell amid reports that Microsoft is in advanced talks to buy the artificial intelligence company for around $16 billion.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.671%. Services surged in March according to the U.S. ISM Services index. The survey jumped to 63.7% hitting the highest level on record as governments lifted business restrictions and rising vaccinations gave Americans increased confidence to go out and shop, travel or take vacations. Readings above 50% signals that businesses are expanding, with readings above 55% showing signs of broad strength. On the flip side, U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.8% in February, marking the first decline since the shutdown. Weakness was primarily blamed on February’s cold weather followed by lack of key supplies. The factory sector is expected to rebound quickly.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.671%. Services surged in March according to the U.S. ISM Services index. The survey jumped to 63.7% hitting the highest level on record as governments lifted business restrictions and rising vaccinations gave Americans increased confidence to go out and shop, travel or take vacations. Readings above 50% signals that businesses are expanding, with readings above 55% showing signs of broad strength. On the flip side, U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.8% in February, marking the first decline since the shutdown. Weakness was primarily blamed on February’s cold weather followed by lack of key supplies. The factory sector is expected to rebound quickly.
Market Commentary [4.09.21]
Stocks opened mixed following the S&P 500 closing at all-time high on Thursday, the 19th time in 2021. The benchmark is on pace to realize gains for a third straight week, its best streak since last October. The DJIA ticked up 0.2% in early trading while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% as large tech lost some of the week’s gains. Investors are preparing for company quarterly earnings reports to be released starting next week as a gauge of the course of the market in coming weeks.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.685%. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, vs an expected 0.5% gain. The majority of price increase came from a jump in prices for final demand goods. Powell reiterated Thursday, “The recovery remains uneven and incomplete.” as the Federal Reserve has loosened its grip on inflation in hopes of achieving a level of full employment. The Fed feels that the inflation we are seeing is likely temporary as states continue to reopen and things rebound from the pandemic, however, if it lasts past summer the Fed could become “more concerned.”
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.685%. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, vs an expected 0.5% gain. The majority of price increase came from a jump in prices for final demand goods. Powell reiterated Thursday, “The recovery remains uneven and incomplete.” as the Federal Reserve has loosened its grip on inflation in hopes of achieving a level of full employment. The Fed feels that the inflation we are seeing is likely temporary as states continue to reopen and things rebound from the pandemic, however, if it lasts past summer the Fed could become “more concerned.”
Market Commentary [4.08.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting minutes. The S&P 500 improved 0.3% after closing at another record high and is up over 2.5% for the month. The tech heavy Nasdaq advanced over 0.8% as concerns begin to ease on high valuations of growth stocks. The cooling off in bond yields has led to a resurgence is the largest tech companies, climbing over 4% following a tumultuous March.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields teeter lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.649%. U.S. jobless claims totaled 744,000, higher than the estimated 694,000. Unemployment still remains will above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Continuing claims did drop marginally to 3.73 million, the lowest level seen since March 21, 2020 just after the pandemic hit and companies instituted layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Fed President and Chair James Bullard and Jerome Powell both have speeches later Today, with Powell highlighting the global economy.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields teeter lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.649%. U.S. jobless claims totaled 744,000, higher than the estimated 694,000. Unemployment still remains will above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Continuing claims did drop marginally to 3.73 million, the lowest level seen since March 21, 2020 just after the pandemic hit and companies instituted layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Fed President and Chair James Bullard and Jerome Powell both have speeches later Today, with Powell highlighting the global economy.
Market Commentary [4.07.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors anticipate the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting minutes later today. The S&P 500 and DJIA edged higher while the Nasdaq dropped 0.1% after a slight pull back on Tuesday following record highs earlier in the week. As sentiment continues to improve, investors are looking toward travel and leisure companies to get a boost as the economy returns to normalcy. Economically sensitive sectors such as banks and energy are also the focus of investors as many see them to stand to benefit the most from reopening.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.665%. The U.S trade deficit has jumped 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion as Americans spend on imports. The deficit was expected to come in at $70.5 billion. Stimulus packages have put Americans in a position to spend more than citizens of other countries, resulting in Americans snapping up imported goods at a faster pace, while overseas purchases of U.S. products lag well behind. The level of imports is now 5% higher than a year ago, with imported oil and industrial supplies the biggest commodities. FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET Today with several Fed speakers taking the podium throughout the day as well.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.665%. The U.S trade deficit has jumped 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion as Americans spend on imports. The deficit was expected to come in at $70.5 billion. Stimulus packages have put Americans in a position to spend more than citizens of other countries, resulting in Americans snapping up imported goods at a faster pace, while overseas purchases of U.S. products lag well behind. The level of imports is now 5% higher than a year ago, with imported oil and industrial supplies the biggest commodities. FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET Today with several Fed speakers taking the podium throughout the day as well.
Market Commentary [4.06.21]
Stocks edged lower following a three-day rally as the S&P 500 and DJIA closed at record highs on Monday. The S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower, led by technology and the DJIA dropped 0.2% after reaching a new peak for the 18th time this year. Investors have bought stocks in record numbers during the first quarter in 2021 in part due to government stimulus and anticipation of economic recovery which has led shares to reach new highs as sentiment increases that vaccination efforts will overcome concerns of higher bond yields impacting the rally. The Cboe Volatility Index edged down to 17.8 its lowest level since February 2020.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.693%. Today’s releases will include IMF’s World Economic Outlook and IMF’s Global Financial Stability report as well as U.S. job openings. It will be interesting to see the global impact and potential recovery from the pandemic and resulting shutdown. The U.S. seems to be on a short term path to recovery with improved jobs numbers in recent weeks and a bit of inflation for added growth. Treasury yields have been marching higher since August, but have picked up steam since the beginning of January. The 10 Year Treasury saw a low near 0.51% on the yield in August, but rallied to 1.00% in early January and then spiked to recent levels near 1.75% over the past two months.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.693%. Today’s releases will include IMF’s World Economic Outlook and IMF’s Global Financial Stability report as well as U.S. job openings. It will be interesting to see the global impact and potential recovery from the pandemic and resulting shutdown. The U.S. seems to be on a short term path to recovery with improved jobs numbers in recent weeks and a bit of inflation for added growth. Treasury yields have been marching higher since August, but have picked up steam since the beginning of January. The 10 Year Treasury saw a low near 0.51% on the yield in August, but rallied to 1.00% in early January and then spiked to recent levels near 1.75% over the past two months.
Market Commentary [4.05.21]
Stocks opened higher on better than expected jobs reports as investors anticipate new data from the Institute for Supply Management's services index later this morning. The U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March vs 675,000 estimated adds. The unemployment rate has now fallen to 6%, down from 6.2% in February. Overall the U.S. has regained 13.7 million jobs, which equates to 62% of the 22.2 million jobs lost in the pandemic. Vaccination efforts are said to have contributed to companies step up in hiring. Leisure and hospitality still show the strongest gains with 280,000 new jobs, however even with the continued gains, the sector remains 3.1 million below its pre-pandemic level.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat at the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.727%. Factory orders and Manufacturing data will be released later this morning. Manufacturing lagged through the shutdown but rebounded with re-openings and higher demand for raw materials as consumers have come out of quarantine. Mortgage rates continue to creep higher with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 Year Fixed is 3.18% and the average 15 Year Fixed is 2.45% according to Freddie Mac’s 4/1/21 Rate Survey. Rates have been on an upward run since early February, with the average surveyed rates rising almost 50 bps over that time frame.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat at the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.727%. Factory orders and Manufacturing data will be released later this morning. Manufacturing lagged through the shutdown but rebounded with re-openings and higher demand for raw materials as consumers have come out of quarantine. Mortgage rates continue to creep higher with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 Year Fixed is 3.18% and the average 15 Year Fixed is 2.45% according to Freddie Mac’s 4/1/21 Rate Survey. Rates have been on an upward run since early February, with the average surveyed rates rising almost 50 bps over that time frame.
Market Commentary [4.01.21]
Stocks opened higher following the S&P 500 closing out a fourth consecutive quarterly advance, reaching above 4,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq rose over 1.5% as tech shares improve ahead of fresh economic data starting in the second quarter. Investor sentiment has improved recently with the prospect of economic growth along with widespread vaccinations and new spending programs from the Biden administration though concern still looms over rising bond yields and new lockdowns in Europe and Canada. Oil prices wavered after an OPEC meeting in which analysts expect significant output cuts to continue to bolster the market after a recent slide in prices.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields move near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.707%. The 10-year yield has risen quickly in recent months, up from less than 1% at the start of the year, amid concerns about inflation. The Fed has announced that it will let inflation run hotter as long as it helps achieve full employment. Ultimately, debt will seek its equilibrium level and some are starting to believe that with this degree of fiscal stimulus in place, equilibrium interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now. Initial jobless claims fell to 675,000 last week vs a forecasted 684,000. 3.75 million remain on continuing claims. The jobs market has been stubborn with mixed re-openings across the states leaving some in service sectors jobless longer, but as more have become vaccinated and looser restrictions have become more common, jobs are rebounding. It will still take some time though to reach pre-pandemic levels of 200,000 jobless claims per week.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields move near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.707%. The 10-year yield has risen quickly in recent months, up from less than 1% at the start of the year, amid concerns about inflation. The Fed has announced that it will let inflation run hotter as long as it helps achieve full employment. Ultimately, debt will seek its equilibrium level and some are starting to believe that with this degree of fiscal stimulus in place, equilibrium interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now. Initial jobless claims fell to 675,000 last week vs a forecasted 684,000. 3.75 million remain on continuing claims. The jobs market has been stubborn with mixed re-openings across the states leaving some in service sectors jobless longer, but as more have become vaccinated and looser restrictions have become more common, jobs are rebounding. It will still take some time though to reach pre-pandemic levels of 200,000 jobless claims per week.
Market Commentary [3.31.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors anticipate details of President Biden’s $2.25 trillion spending program. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and the Nasdaq opened 0.6% higher following a day of losses for giant tech companies. President Biden’s multitrillion dollar program, targeted at infrastructure, green energy, manufacturing and housing has money managers speculating the impact on taxpayers to fund the initiative. The President has indicated that raising tax rates of the highest earning citizens as well as corporations would be a portion of the funding for the program.
Bond pricing remains relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hover near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.723%. ADP data for March showed a gain of 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and a good jump above the 176,000 jobs added in February. Job growth in the service sector continues to outpace monthly averages, as the economy recovers, this was the hardest hit sector which is now poised for explosive growth to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales will also be released at 10a.m. ET for another view into what has been one of the strongest industries throughout the pandemic as consumers have shifted to school and work from home and have gained additional space through home purchases. Economist are forecasting a drop of 3.1% in Pending Sales as limited inventory continues to hold back eligible buyers.
Bond pricing remains relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hover near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.723%. ADP data for March showed a gain of 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and a good jump above the 176,000 jobs added in February. Job growth in the service sector continues to outpace monthly averages, as the economy recovers, this was the hardest hit sector which is now poised for explosive growth to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales will also be released at 10a.m. ET for another view into what has been one of the strongest industries throughout the pandemic as consumers have shifted to school and work from home and have gained additional space through home purchases. Economist are forecasting a drop of 3.1% in Pending Sales as limited inventory continues to hold back eligible buyers.
Market Commentary [3.30.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors continue to exit government bonds in anticipation of a brightening economic outlook as well as concerns of higher inflation. The S&P 500 ticked 0.3% lower while the Nasdaq opened 0.6% lower as investors move away from richly valued tech to stocks positioned to benefit the most from economic recovery such as energy, financials and travel. Investors are still closely following the fallout from Archegos Capital Management’s liquidation of over $30 billion in stocks as banks handling its trading were prompted to unwind positions, warning that they too may still be set to incur losses.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.753%, taking out a January 2020 high earlier in trading. Covid vaccine rollouts and planned infrastructure spending are boosting hopes of a broad U.S. economic recovery. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 11.2% over the past year ending in January. Home price growth has now accelerated to a 15-year high as supply continues to remain near all time lows. In January, there were 1.03 million homes for sale, the lowest level in data going back to 1982, according to the NAR.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.753%, taking out a January 2020 high earlier in trading. Covid vaccine rollouts and planned infrastructure spending are boosting hopes of a broad U.S. economic recovery. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 11.2% over the past year ending in January. Home price growth has now accelerated to a 15-year high as supply continues to remain near all time lows. In January, there were 1.03 million homes for sale, the lowest level in data going back to 1982, according to the NAR.
Market Commentary [3.29.21]
Stocks opened lower following a $30 billion sell off in block trades on Friday, leading to concern that global banks involved could face sharp losses. The block trades by Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley were initiated after capital management company, Archegos failed to meet margin calls. ViacomCBS and Discovery were two companies involved in the massive sell off, each dropping over 25% last week with ViacomCBS losing an additional 2% in early trading. Investors will now look to reassess their positions in anticipation of further precipitous declines of stocks that have rallied steeply this year.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on light economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.666%. Mortgage rates have continued to rise with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 YR fixed was 3.17%, up from 3.09% and the average 15 YR Fixed was 2.45% up from 2.40% according to Freddie Mac’s March 25th rate survey. The recent rise in rates has slowed refinance activity, with applications dropping to its slowest pace since September of 2020. Still purchase activity remains strong against limited housing inventory, which is putting further upward pressure on home prices
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on light economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.666%. Mortgage rates have continued to rise with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 YR fixed was 3.17%, up from 3.09% and the average 15 YR Fixed was 2.45% up from 2.40% according to Freddie Mac’s March 25th rate survey. The recent rise in rates has slowed refinance activity, with applications dropping to its slowest pace since September of 2020. Still purchase activity remains strong against limited housing inventory, which is putting further upward pressure on home prices
Market Commentary [3.26.21]
Stocks opened higher on optimism of vaccine rollouts following the Fed announcing that temporary limits on dividend payments and share buybacks will end for most banks after June. The S&P 500 was up nearly 0.5% led by financials, snapping a two-day losing streak on Thursday while the Nasdaq edged up 0.1% in early trading. Investors continue to monitor the container ship blocking the Suez Canal as officials warn that the traffic of crude oil and petroleum products through the channel could take days to weeks to resume.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields regain higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.658%. U.S. consumer spending fell more than expected in February, dropping 1.0% after a healthy rebound in January of 3.4%. Personal income also tumbled 7.1% after surging 10.1% in January. Despite these moves, core inflation moved upward 0.1% as expected, slightly down from January’s release of 0.2%.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields regain higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.658%. U.S. consumer spending fell more than expected in February, dropping 1.0% after a healthy rebound in January of 3.4%. Personal income also tumbled 7.1% after surging 10.1% in January. Despite these moves, core inflation moved upward 0.1% as expected, slightly down from January’s release of 0.2%.
Market Commentary [3.25.21]
Stocks opened lower and are on track for a third day of losses despite stronger than expected data in the labor market. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5% led by energy and industrials while the tech heavy Nasdaq fell by nearly 1%. Investors are monitoring the surge in demand for products spurred by government relief spending and vaccine rollouts as supply chain constraints increase due to extensions of Covid-19 lockdowns. Focus will turn to the U.S. Treasury auction of 7 year notes today as poor demand during last month’s sale helped lead to a global selloff in government debt and interest-rate sensitive stocks.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. Another 684,000 filed for unemployment last week, less than the expected 730,000. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 3.87 million vs. 4 million expected. Even though claims have come down considerably from the highs, they remain elevated from 2019 levels, when just over 200,000 claims were seen per week. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, claims peaked at 665,000. GDP also saw positive growth, with growth in the 4th quarter at 4.3% on an annual pace. Another sign that the economy appears to be in recovery after the coronavirus outbreak
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. Another 684,000 filed for unemployment last week, less than the expected 730,000. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 3.87 million vs. 4 million expected. Even though claims have come down considerably from the highs, they remain elevated from 2019 levels, when just over 200,000 claims were seen per week. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, claims peaked at 665,000. GDP also saw positive growth, with growth in the 4th quarter at 4.3% on an annual pace. Another sign that the economy appears to be in recovery after the coronavirus outbreak
Market Commentary [3.24.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors continue to monitor rising Covid-19 cases in Europe as the House of Financial Services committee prepares for a second day of testimony. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% in early trading led by energy, financials and industrials while the Nasdaq was relatively flat as tech shares attempt to recover ground following significant losses in recent weeks. The flare up in the pandemic in Europe has led to anticipation of the EU drafting emergency legislation that would allow it to control exports of Covid-19 vaccines. In Asia, benchmarks in Hong Kong and Japan both fell by more than 2% by close of trading, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index entered correction territory after dropping more than 10% from a peak in February.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR treasury yield is currently 1.64%. New orders for U.S. made capital goods fell unexpectedly in February, pointing toward some cooling down in business spending on equipment after recent strong growth. Overall durable goods fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.8% increase. The results were a stark contrast to January’s 3.4% increase as well. Several Fed speakers take the podium Today along with Powel and Yellen testifying before Congress on economic activity.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR treasury yield is currently 1.64%. New orders for U.S. made capital goods fell unexpectedly in February, pointing toward some cooling down in business spending on equipment after recent strong growth. Overall durable goods fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.8% increase. The results were a stark contrast to January’s 3.4% increase as well. Several Fed speakers take the podium Today along with Powel and Yellen testifying before Congress on economic activity.
Market Commentary [3.23.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors prepare for the first joint appearance of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell at the U.S. House Financial Services committee over the next two days. Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank’s stance on continuing to provide support to the economy through loose monetary policy. The speed of the recovery and possibility of increasing inflation paired with rising Covid-19 cases in Europe have left investors skeptical about plans for interest rates and bond purchases. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged lower as France and Italy extended coronavirus restrictions and Germany imposed another four week lockdown.
Bond Pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. In released remarks, Powell said that the economy progressed more quickly than expected and looks to be strengthening, however, hard hit sectors still “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall” so the recovery still has a ways to go. Existing home sales plunged 6.6% last month to 6.22 million units. Economists are expecting a slight rebound to 6.5 million units with this morning’s release scheduled for 10 a.m. ET.
Bond Pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. In released remarks, Powell said that the economy progressed more quickly than expected and looks to be strengthening, however, hard hit sectors still “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall” so the recovery still has a ways to go. Existing home sales plunged 6.6% last month to 6.22 million units. Economists are expecting a slight rebound to 6.5 million units with this morning’s release scheduled for 10 a.m. ET.
Market Commentary [3.22.21]
Stocks edged higher, led by technology shares as Treasury yields drop slightly following a volatile week. The S&P 500 ticked up in early trading while the Nasdaq rose over 0.5% indicating that tech stocks may push higher early in the week. Shares of AstraZeneca rose 2% after announcing that its Covid-19 vaccine was safe and 79% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in U.S. clinical trials. Turkey’s lira declined 9% after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved to replace the country’s third central bank chief in less than two years.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding near recent highs this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. The empire state index, a measure of business activity in New York, jumped to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, signaling economic growth in a state that has been hampered by shutdowns. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in business activity in New York since November of 2018. New orders and shipments were all up substantially, with businesses reporting optimistic conditions in the next six months given demand and inventory levels. This week is full of economic data with retail sales Tomorrow, building permits and housing starts Wednesday and initial jobless claims Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding near recent highs this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. The empire state index, a measure of business activity in New York, jumped to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, signaling economic growth in a state that has been hampered by shutdowns. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in business activity in New York since November of 2018. New orders and shipments were all up substantially, with businesses reporting optimistic conditions in the next six months given demand and inventory levels. This week is full of economic data with retail sales Tomorrow, building permits and housing starts Wednesday and initial jobless claims Thursday.
Market Commentary [3.19.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors evaluate news that the Fed will not extend bank regulatory relief, utilized to relax capital levels during the pandemic. The S&P 500 ticked lower in early trading after closing 1.5% lower on Thursday. Concerns of inflation rising along with the recovering economy led to a sharp selloff in government bonds on Thursday as investors looked to exit tech and other high growth stocks. FedEx rose over 5% after announcing its quarterly profit nearly tripled and revenue jumped 23% despite the disruption of winter storms
Bond pricing is retaking a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch slightly lower. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. Comments Thursday from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the central bank would allow inflation to run hotter, expecting core inflation to hit 2.2% in 2021, but around 2% in the long run. He also alluded that if it helped improve the employment picture in the U.S. they may let inflation run higher. All this put upward pressure on treasury yields Thursday, but with little to no economic news Today, yields are inching lower. Mortgage rates have moved higher according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey. The average 30 YR Fixed is now at 3.09%, up from the lows seen in early January of 2.65%. The average 15 YR Fixed is now at 2.4%, off the lows of 2.14% seen in early January. Treasury yields have consistently marched higher since then, pressuring mortgage rates higher in the process.
Bond pricing is retaking a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch slightly lower. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. Comments Thursday from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the central bank would allow inflation to run hotter, expecting core inflation to hit 2.2% in 2021, but around 2% in the long run. He also alluded that if it helped improve the employment picture in the U.S. they may let inflation run higher. All this put upward pressure on treasury yields Thursday, but with little to no economic news Today, yields are inching lower. Mortgage rates have moved higher according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey. The average 30 YR Fixed is now at 3.09%, up from the lows seen in early January of 2.65%. The average 15 YR Fixed is now at 2.4%, off the lows of 2.14% seen in early January. Treasury yields have consistently marched higher since then, pressuring mortgage rates higher in the process.
Market Commentary [3.18.21]
Stocks opened lower following investors selling government bonds and technology shares. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7% after hitting an all-time high on Wednesday while the Nasdaq fell over 1.3% following closing above 33,000 for the first time. Expectations of inflation have led investors to continue selling 10-year notes with the anticipation that inflation would increase along with the recovering economy, reducing the value of returns from fixed-income investments. On Wednesday, Fed officials revealed that they expect the economy to recover more quickly than they did months ago but have maintained that interest rates will remain ultralow through 2023.
Bond pricing continues to lose ground as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.742%, a high not seen since January of last year. Initial jobless claims printed another 770,000 new unemployment claims for this past week. Continuing claims flattened from 4.144 million to 4.124 million week over week. The new claims were a bit of a surprise, surpassing expectations by 45,000 or more. Still, there is a slight downward trend in new claims over the past several months. More improvement is also expected with vaccination rates increasing and restrictions being lifted.
Bond pricing continues to lose ground as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.742%, a high not seen since January of last year. Initial jobless claims printed another 770,000 new unemployment claims for this past week. Continuing claims flattened from 4.144 million to 4.124 million week over week. The new claims were a bit of a surprise, surpassing expectations by 45,000 or more. Still, there is a slight downward trend in new claims over the past several months. More improvement is also expected with vaccination rates increasing and restrictions being lifted.
Market Commentary [3.17.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s next economic outlook and indications on interest rates and bond purchases. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% and the Nasdaq dropped over 1%, led by technology shares. The Fed is scheduled to release its latest economic projections at 2 pm ET followed by a press conference in which Chairman Powell is expected to address the faster than expected rebound in the labor market and inflation.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields continue finding higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Residential housing starts fell 10.3% in February to an annualized rate of 1.421 million as harsh weather kept buyers on the sidelines. In addition to weather, lumber prices have surged 59% over the past year, more than any 12 month period since 1947. Housing also saw the largest monthly decline in permits since April at 10.8%. With supply of existing homes at all-time lows, and rates still near historic lows, builders still feel optimistic in the short run.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields continue finding higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Residential housing starts fell 10.3% in February to an annualized rate of 1.421 million as harsh weather kept buyers on the sidelines. In addition to weather, lumber prices have surged 59% over the past year, more than any 12 month period since 1947. Housing also saw the largest monthly decline in permits since April at 10.8%. With supply of existing homes at all-time lows, and rates still near historic lows, builders still feel optimistic in the short run.
Market Commentary [3.16.21]
Stocks opened mixed as tech shares show signs of steadying following the surge in bond yields from late February and early March. The S&P 500 was relatively flat and the DJIA edged up 0.2% after both indexes closed at record highs on Monday, while the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 0.8% in early trading. Money managers will turn to the two-day Fed policy meeting concluding on Wednesday for insights on the Fed’s stance regarding concerns of growth and inflation and if the central bank will consider increasing interest rates earlier than expected.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat again this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.60%. Retail sales dropped by a seasonally adjusted 3.0% last month amid extreme cold weather across the country leaving many without power. Despite the setback, economists are expecting a rebound as another round of pandemic relief money arrives for lower and middle income households. It’s also expected that the pace of vaccinations, which should allow for broader economic engagement, will continue to create further rebound in the coming months. Its estimated that households have also accumulated $1.8 trillion in excess savings.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat again this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.60%. Retail sales dropped by a seasonally adjusted 3.0% last month amid extreme cold weather across the country leaving many without power. Despite the setback, economists are expecting a rebound as another round of pandemic relief money arrives for lower and middle income households. It’s also expected that the pace of vaccinations, which should allow for broader economic engagement, will continue to create further rebound in the coming months. Its estimated that households have also accumulated $1.8 trillion in excess savings.
Market Commentary [3.15.21]
Stocks opened mixed following record closes for the S&P 500 and DJIA last week. The S&P 500 edged higher in early trading, led by utilities and consumer staples, while the DJIA was up 0.4% suggesting that blue-chip shares sensitive to the economic recovery may extend gains. Sentiment among investors remains focused on rising long-term borrowing costs and potential for reflation trades as rotation continues from growth to value shares. Over the weekend, bitcoin surpassed $60,000 for the first time before falling back to $56,000 territory this morning.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. There is little economic news Today, but this week is filled with retail sales, building permits and housing starts and initial jobless claims just to name a few. These indicators will be closely watched as investors have been a bit skiddish around inflation building too fast as the economy attempts to recover. Treasury yields have tested new highs in recent weeks, pushing mortgage rates higher as well. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR fixed rate was 3.05%, up more than a quarter of a percent since mid-February. The average 15 YR fixed is currently 2.38%, up more than an eighth of a percent since mid-February.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. There is little economic news Today, but this week is filled with retail sales, building permits and housing starts and initial jobless claims just to name a few. These indicators will be closely watched as investors have been a bit skiddish around inflation building too fast as the economy attempts to recover. Treasury yields have tested new highs in recent weeks, pushing mortgage rates higher as well. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR fixed rate was 3.05%, up more than a quarter of a percent since mid-February. The average 15 YR fixed is currently 2.38%, up more than an eighth of a percent since mid-February.
Market Commentary [3.12.21]
Stocks opened mixed with technology shares declining as a fresh bout of bond volatility hit markets. The S&P 500 edged lower following a record close on Thursday while the tech heavy Nasdaq slipped over 1.3%. The acceleration of vaccinations along with the passage of the $1.9 trillion relief bill sent Treasury yields surging. Investors are again considering the prospect of excessive inflation after a relatively smooth week of bond sales and will turn to the Federal Reserve next week. Bitcoin climbed to a record high in overnight trading, topping $58,700 but has since pulled back nearly 5% to $55,900.
Bond pricing slid further this morning as treasury yields march back to recent highs. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. The 10 YR Treasury yield has risen rapidly over the past month or more, shooting up from 1% since the end of January. Concerns of inflation are compounded by fears that the recent stimulus, alongside reopening of the economy, could stimulate things too quickly and cause a surge in prices. Fueling those concerns this morning, the producer price index showed a year-over-year gain of 2.8%, the largest since October of 2018. Higher prices for energy and gas, which saw an increase of 13.1% led the increase in pricing. The Fed feels that price gains are likely temporary, but we should know more by summer time.
Bond pricing slid further this morning as treasury yields march back to recent highs. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. The 10 YR Treasury yield has risen rapidly over the past month or more, shooting up from 1% since the end of January. Concerns of inflation are compounded by fears that the recent stimulus, alongside reopening of the economy, could stimulate things too quickly and cause a surge in prices. Fueling those concerns this morning, the producer price index showed a year-over-year gain of 2.8%, the largest since October of 2018. Higher prices for energy and gas, which saw an increase of 13.1% led the increase in pricing. The Fed feels that price gains are likely temporary, but we should know more by summer time.
Market Commentary [3.11.21]
Stocks were up in early trading, fueled by a return to technology shares. The Nasdaq jumped over 1.5% as appetite for tech improved as Treasury yields indicate signs of stabilizing. The $1.9 trillion Covid-relief bill cleared its final congressional hurdle on Wednesday and will be signed by President Biden on Friday. The Treasury will test investor appetite for government debt again today during an auction of $24 billion in 30-year bonds following the sale of $58 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday and $38 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday.
Bond pricing is regaining ground this morning as treasury yields fall slightly. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.516%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 709,000 last week, fueling optimism for economic rebound. The Labor Department reported that employers added 379,000 jobs in February, largely in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality industries. All this brings confidence as vaccination rates increase, the weather improves and the new stimulus reaches those in need. Contiuing claims declined by 193,000 to 4.14 million.
Bond pricing is regaining ground this morning as treasury yields fall slightly. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.516%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 709,000 last week, fueling optimism for economic rebound. The Labor Department reported that employers added 379,000 jobs in February, largely in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality industries. All this brings confidence as vaccination rates increase, the weather improves and the new stimulus reaches those in need. Contiuing claims declined by 193,000 to 4.14 million.
Market Commentary [3.10.21]
Stocks opened higher as U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in February, abating some concerns of inflation. The Nasdaq led the three indexes, gaining over 1.2% in early trading following one of the tech sector’s best days in months. The U.S. government will auction a batch of notes this afternoon, testing investor appetite for new Treasury debt. Federal Reserve officials remain firm that they would allow inflation to exceed 2% for a spell before tightening policy, which may take time if inflation continues to be capped by relatively weak demand in several sectors.
Bond pricing tapers further as treasury yields continue to regain higher ground this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Many stock traders are re-focusing on treasury yields as the primary issue for the stock market. Today’s 10 YR Treasury auction will shed additional light on the matter as we get a better look at demand. Rapid increases in yield like we recently experienced in February cause concern for some stocks as a factor of interest rates and potential inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4%, to 1.7% in February. The cost of gasoline rose further, leading to the biggest annual gain in a year. Gasoline prices increased 6.4% in February on top of an increase of 7.4% in January. Even though the index rose overall, underlying inflation appears to remain tepid amid sluggish demand for service related items which is made up of airline travel and other sectors.
Bond pricing tapers further as treasury yields continue to regain higher ground this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Many stock traders are re-focusing on treasury yields as the primary issue for the stock market. Today’s 10 YR Treasury auction will shed additional light on the matter as we get a better look at demand. Rapid increases in yield like we recently experienced in February cause concern for some stocks as a factor of interest rates and potential inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4%, to 1.7% in February. The cost of gasoline rose further, leading to the biggest annual gain in a year. Gasoline prices increased 6.4% in February on top of an increase of 7.4% in January. Even though the index rose overall, underlying inflation appears to remain tepid amid sluggish demand for service related items which is made up of airline travel and other sectors.
Market Commentary [3.9.21]
Stocks opened higher as beaten-down tech stocks led gains fueled by dip buyers in early trading. The S&P 500 gained over 1% after the opening bell while the Nasdaq jumped more than 2.5% following a recent decline of greater than 10% that put the index into correction territory on Monday. Investors will closely monitor Treasury sales as the U.S. plans three debt auctions totaling $120 billion in the coming days. In Washington, the House is expected to narrowly pass the latest version of the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package by today or Wednesday for the second time following revisions by the Senate.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.537%. Optimism among small businesses rose slightly in February as the job market tightened and earnings improved. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 95.8 in February up 0.8 points from January but still below the average reading of 98. The index fell short of economists expectations, slightly due to inclement weather that spread across the mid-west via snow storms. Of all owners surveyed, 24% selected the quality of labor as their top business problem, followed by taxes and government regulation.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.537%. Optimism among small businesses rose slightly in February as the job market tightened and earnings improved. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 95.8 in February up 0.8 points from January but still below the average reading of 98. The index fell short of economists expectations, slightly due to inclement weather that spread across the mid-west via snow storms. Of all owners surveyed, 24% selected the quality of labor as their top business problem, followed by taxes and government regulation.
Market Commentary [3.8.21]
Stocks opened mixed with tech stocks lagging and investors moving to companies in sectors more closely tied to the business cycle and likely to rebound with the economy. President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan was approved in the Senate over the weekend and could be voted on by the House as early as Tuesday. Concern still looms over whether equity valuations have become too excessive, particularly in speculative tech shares as the Nasdaq dropped nearly 8% since the beginning of February. China’s CSI 300 entered a correction on Monday due to concerns of liquidity conditions and high valuations in recently favored stocks, just 13 days after the gauge closed at its highest level since 2007.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR Fixed rate moved upward last week from 2.97% to 3.02% as of 3/4/21. The average 15 YR Fixed remained flat at 2.34%. Recent treasury movement has put upward pressure on mortgage rates. This week is relatively light for economic news, however there are a few potential market movers with CPI Wednesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Senators have passed the new stimulus bill through budget reconciliation. The bill now moves to the House which aims to pass the bill Tuesday in an effort to sign before a March 14 deadline in order to renew unemployment aid programs.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR Fixed rate moved upward last week from 2.97% to 3.02% as of 3/4/21. The average 15 YR Fixed remained flat at 2.34%. Recent treasury movement has put upward pressure on mortgage rates. This week is relatively light for economic news, however there are a few potential market movers with CPI Wednesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Senators have passed the new stimulus bill through budget reconciliation. The bill now moves to the House which aims to pass the bill Tuesday in an effort to sign before a March 14 deadline in order to renew unemployment aid programs.
Market Commentary [3.5.21]
Stocks opened higher on a stronger than expected jobs report. The three indexes ticked up in early trading led by the S&P 500 opening 1.1% higher following a drop to its lowest level since the end of January on Thursday. The Nasdaq opened 1% higher after ending Thursday 9.7% lower from its February 12 high, putting the barometer for the technology sector just short of correction territory. During the WSJ Jobs Summit, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated his intention to keep easy-money policies in place and indicated no sign that the central bank will look to address the recent rise in Treasury yields.
Bond pricing retreated rapidly as treasury yields break support and make new highs this morning. The 10 YR Treasury yields is currently 1.60%. U.S. employers added 379,000 jobs last month, causing a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 6.2%. The pace of the labor market’s recovery remains hampered by the ongoing pandemic. As businesses re-open, leisure and hospitality continue to add new jobs at the highest rate. Those areas saw the greatest job loss over the course as well. With vaccine rollout accelerating across the country and falling case counts, there is some optimism going froward. Some are expecting recent hiring to translate into a bigger move in March.
Bond pricing retreated rapidly as treasury yields break support and make new highs this morning. The 10 YR Treasury yields is currently 1.60%. U.S. employers added 379,000 jobs last month, causing a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 6.2%. The pace of the labor market’s recovery remains hampered by the ongoing pandemic. As businesses re-open, leisure and hospitality continue to add new jobs at the highest rate. Those areas saw the greatest job loss over the course as well. With vaccine rollout accelerating across the country and falling case counts, there is some optimism going froward. Some are expecting recent hiring to translate into a bigger move in March.
Market Commentary [3.4.21]
Stocks opened higher following a two-day decline as investors await Fed Chairman Powell’s appearance at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit to gauge the central bank’s perception of the recent rise in Treasury yields. The three indexed edged up in early trading with energy, retail and finance leading gains. To this point, central bank officials have continued their stance that the recent rise in bond yields signals that investors are optimistic about the economic recovery. Brent crude futures rose to $64.29 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia are in talks to propose a combined one million barrels a day of oil production to global markets in a meeting of the world’s largest producers today.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.477%. Initial jobless claims came in close to expectations at 745,000. Continuing claims also dipped slightly from 4.419 million to 4.295 million. Jobless claims still remain multiples above levels from before the Covid pandemic, when new claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week. Returning to those levels will heavily depend on consumers return to service centric activities most deeply affected by stay in place orders, along with the pace of business reopenings. Tomorrow’s Unemployment report will shed additional light on the jobs market amidst potential recovery.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.477%. Initial jobless claims came in close to expectations at 745,000. Continuing claims also dipped slightly from 4.419 million to 4.295 million. Jobless claims still remain multiples above levels from before the Covid pandemic, when new claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week. Returning to those levels will heavily depend on consumers return to service centric activities most deeply affected by stay in place orders, along with the pace of business reopenings. Tomorrow’s Unemployment report will shed additional light on the jobs market amidst potential recovery.
Market Commentary [3.3.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a jump in Treasury yields as concern looms over stretched valuations. The three indexes were little changed in early trading with the DJIA leading at a 0.2% improvement. Investors are growing increasingly concerned that stimulus measures could lead to a surge in inflation, limiting the value of bond returns as speculation picks up on the Federal Reserve’s inclination to address interest rates moving forward. Focus will turn to the release of the Fed’s beige book report at 2 pm ET, as investors look for insights on the reopening of the economy and how companies are preparing.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.457%. Private sector employment increased by 117,000 jobs according to the ADP National Employment Report for February. Service jobs are leading the comeback with roughly 131,000 new jobs over the period, while construction and other good-producing jobs lost ground. Medium sized business hired at a faster pace compared to small and large businesses which hired at roughly the same pace. There are several more Federal Reserve speakers Today between 10am and 2 pm ET. Investors may pause here as they will undoubtedly be looking toward initial jobless claims released Tomorrow followed by Unemployment being released Friday.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.457%. Private sector employment increased by 117,000 jobs according to the ADP National Employment Report for February. Service jobs are leading the comeback with roughly 131,000 new jobs over the period, while construction and other good-producing jobs lost ground. Medium sized business hired at a faster pace compared to small and large businesses which hired at roughly the same pace. There are several more Federal Reserve speakers Today between 10am and 2 pm ET. Investors may pause here as they will undoubtedly be looking toward initial jobless claims released Tomorrow followed by Unemployment being released Friday.
Market Commentary [3.1.21]
Stocks climbed following a volatile week as a decline in yields helped improve investor appetite. The three major indexes each rose over 1%, led by the Nasdaq advancing 1.6% after a rough week for technology companies. Shares of Johnson & Johnson rose 1.5% following authorization from the CDC to on Sunday, the single dose shot was also authorized by the FDA on Saturday. In Washington, the House passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package which is now en route to the Senate as certain types of federal unemployment assistance are set to expire on March 14.
Bond pricing regains ground as treasury yields find footing below recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.45%. Recent treasury movement pushed rates higher according to Freddie Mac’s Rate survey. The average 30 YR fixed was 2.97% while the average 15 YR fixed was 2.34% as of 2/25/2021. Both saw sharp increases from the prior survey from 2.81% and 2.21% respectively. This week will give investors more insight into the jobs market with more initial jobless claims data Thursday followed by the monthly Unemployment Rate release on Friday
Bond pricing regains ground as treasury yields find footing below recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.45%. Recent treasury movement pushed rates higher according to Freddie Mac’s Rate survey. The average 30 YR fixed was 2.97% while the average 15 YR fixed was 2.34% as of 2/25/2021. Both saw sharp increases from the prior survey from 2.81% and 2.21% respectively. This week will give investors more insight into the jobs market with more initial jobless claims data Thursday followed by the monthly Unemployment Rate release on Friday
Market Commentary [2.26.21]
Stocks opened mixed as tech stocks posted a modest rebound following a sharp selloff earlier in the week. The S&P 500 edged higher in early trading after closing nearly 2% lower for the week on Thursday and is on pace for its worst week in a month. The concern that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy has increased amongst investors despite officials continuing their stance that the central bank has no plans to increase interest rates and that higher Treasury yields reflect optimism on the outlook for growth.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.467%, after surging upward to 1.6% in the prior session, charting highs not seen since February of last year. Yesterday’s move unnerved investors and put pressure on stock markets, with the Nasdaq having its worst on-day loss since October. U.S. consumer spending rebounded strongly in January as additional pandemic relief was discussed and new COVID infections dropped. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Overall, spending jumped 2.4% last month after decreasing 0.4% in December. Personal income also shot up by 10% last month as businesses are starting to have more positive outlook on recovery.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.467%, after surging upward to 1.6% in the prior session, charting highs not seen since February of last year. Yesterday’s move unnerved investors and put pressure on stock markets, with the Nasdaq having its worst on-day loss since October. U.S. consumer spending rebounded strongly in January as additional pandemic relief was discussed and new COVID infections dropped. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Overall, spending jumped 2.4% last month after decreasing 0.4% in December. Personal income also shot up by 10% last month as businesses are starting to have more positive outlook on recovery.
Market Commentary [2.25.21]
Stocks edged lower amid concerns on the recent rise in bond yields as new data indicates a continued, slowly recovering economy. Investor appetite rebounded following Fed Chairman’s Powell’s consistent position that the central bank will keep interest rates low, leading the DJIA to a record high close. Optimism about the economic recovery has spurred the shift by investors to value stocks, opposed to growth stocks that powered much of last year’s rally, with the expectation that they stand to benefit the most from eased restrictions. Moderna gained over 3% after announcing its plan to increase manufacturing capacity of Covid-19 vaccines.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.446%. Some bond traders are eyeing 1.47% as the top of a support range, past which 1.5% is the next level. This matches the yield on the S&P 500 which could give the stock market some concern. Weekly unemployment claims fell to 730,000 and continuing claims moved down to 4.419 million from 4.52 million. This is the first time in seven weeks claims have fallen below 800,000, but even with the drop, claims are still well above pre-pandemic levels of just over 200,000 a week. California and Ohio amongst many other states saw large drops in new claims.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.446%. Some bond traders are eyeing 1.47% as the top of a support range, past which 1.5% is the next level. This matches the yield on the S&P 500 which could give the stock market some concern. Weekly unemployment claims fell to 730,000 and continuing claims moved down to 4.419 million from 4.52 million. This is the first time in seven weeks claims have fallen below 800,000, but even with the drop, claims are still well above pre-pandemic levels of just over 200,000 a week. California and Ohio amongst many other states saw large drops in new claims.
Market Commentary [2.24.21]
Stocks edged lower as a rise in government bond yields accelerated the selloff of tech stocks that once led markets during the pandemic. The S&P 500 opened 0.2% lower with telecom companies leading declines while the technology heavy Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Investors are now looking toward companies poised to benefit from an end to lockdowns and movement restrictions, driven by improving growth prospects and rising inflation expectations that led to the surge in bond yields. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated his stance to keeping easy monetary policies unchanged for the foreseeable future as investors await his second day of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee later this morning.
The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is up from yesterday at 1.411%. New U.S. home sales rose to a three month high in January, exceeding expectations as buyers took advantage of attractive mortgage rates. New single family home purchases increased by 4.3% to a 923,000 annualized pace, up from 885,000 the previous month. Builder backlogs remain elevated, indicating residential construction will stay firm in the coming month despite data from the MBA showing loan applications to purchase homes declined to a nine-month low.
The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is up from yesterday at 1.411%. New U.S. home sales rose to a three month high in January, exceeding expectations as buyers took advantage of attractive mortgage rates. New single family home purchases increased by 4.3% to a 923,000 annualized pace, up from 885,000 the previous month. Builder backlogs remain elevated, indicating residential construction will stay firm in the coming month despite data from the MBA showing loan applications to purchase homes declined to a nine-month low.
Market Commentary [2.22.21]
Stocks opened lower as treasury yields rose with anticipation for stronger growth and faster inflation as investors continue to monitor economic recovery from the pandemic. The Nasdaq led the three indexes in losses as technology shares were hit as higher yields reduced the appeal growth-focused stocks and their expensive pricing. Brent oil climbed over $63 a barrel and has been projected to reach $70 in the coming months. Bitcoin slumped more than 10% as prices pulled back following an all-time high.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields plot new heights. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.345%. With yields continuing to rise, Investors are signaling that there is growing market confidence of an economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic. The White House stated that it expects to finish sending out millions of doses of vaccine this week after a sweeping winter storm disrupted distribution logistics. Mortgage rates are under pressure as yields continue to move higher. Freddie Mac shows a slight increase in their rate survey from 2/18. The average 30-YR fixed rate was 2.81%, up from the last reading of 2.73%. The average 15-YR fixed rate was 2.21%, up from the last reading of 2.19%.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields plot new heights. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.345%. With yields continuing to rise, Investors are signaling that there is growing market confidence of an economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic. The White House stated that it expects to finish sending out millions of doses of vaccine this week after a sweeping winter storm disrupted distribution logistics. Mortgage rates are under pressure as yields continue to move higher. Freddie Mac shows a slight increase in their rate survey from 2/18. The average 30-YR fixed rate was 2.81%, up from the last reading of 2.73%. The average 15-YR fixed rate was 2.21%, up from the last reading of 2.19%.
Market Commentary [2.19.21]
Stocks rebounded this morning after their longest losing streak since December. The S&P 500 opened slightly higher, led by industrial and financial sectors. Corporate earnings are now on the forefront of investor’s minds after the rise in Treasury yields dominated most discussions earlier this week. The fear is that increases in borrowing costs could send this rally and the economic recovery off-course.
Bond pricing continues to taper as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.319%, levels not seen since March of last year. Treasury Secretary Yellen still supports Biden’s additional stimulus. She stated she still has support for the package despite signs that momentum does appear to be building in the first two months of 2021 and investor’s fears of inflation could return.
Existing home sales is scheduled to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown from the previous number of 6.76 million units to 6.66 million units. The housing industry has remained strong throughout the pandemic, with reduced inventory and low rates, which have pushed prices higher.
Bond pricing continues to taper as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.319%, levels not seen since March of last year. Treasury Secretary Yellen still supports Biden’s additional stimulus. She stated she still has support for the package despite signs that momentum does appear to be building in the first two months of 2021 and investor’s fears of inflation could return.
Existing home sales is scheduled to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown from the previous number of 6.76 million units to 6.66 million units. The housing industry has remained strong throughout the pandemic, with reduced inventory and low rates, which have pushed prices higher.
Market Commentary [1.29.21]
Stocks opened lower amid concerns of volatility created by retail traders. The S&P 500 declined 0.6% following a 1% improvement the previous day while the DJIA slipped 0.7%. GameStop shares soared over 100% as brokerages announced they would ease trading restrictions imposed after wild swings this week after a 44% decline yesterday. Novavax climbed 60% after reporting its vaccine was 89% effective in a recent late-stage trial in the U.K. Bitcoin gained over 15% following a mention by Telsa CEO Elon Mush on social media.
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.10%. Personal income and consumer spending were both released this morning. Personal income rose by 0.6% in December after falling 1.3% in November. At the same time, personal spending dipped by 0.2% in December after falling 0.7% in November. The jobs market has weighed heavily on the statistics, with many Americans still looking for work.
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.10%. Personal income and consumer spending were both released this morning. Personal income rose by 0.6% in December after falling 1.3% in November. At the same time, personal spending dipped by 0.2% in December after falling 0.7% in November. The jobs market has weighed heavily on the statistics, with many Americans still looking for work.
Trading activity increased to $296 billion with $15 billion in Specified Pools.
Market Commentary [1.22.21]
Stocks opened lower amid global escalating coronavirus restrictions as countries battle vaccination issues and face additional lockdown protocols. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% following Thursday’s record and the DJIA fell 0.5% after the opening bell. Sentiment has been positive in recent days, fueled by a solid start to earnings season as the majority of S&P 500 companies have reported results exceeding analysts’ expectations though there is concern that high valuations in parts of the market will leave stocks vulnerable moving forward. Italy announced a delay to its vaccination program due to a drop in deliveries from manufacturers while Germany expects their vaccine shortage to last up to the next eight weeks. The U.K. initiated its third lockdown that could last into the summer and China has reportedly unveiled new restrictive measures.
Bond pricing and treasuries are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.087%. Lawmakers are beginning to weigh in on Biden’s stimulus plan with some opposition from both sides of the aisle. Existing Home Sales is expected to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown to the number coming in at 6.55 million units. The real estate industry continues to be a shining star amongst a battered economy as demand continues to outweigh supply and rates remain very low. With many shifting work and school to their homes, more space is now a top priority for those that can afford to make a move.
Bond pricing and treasuries are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.087%. Lawmakers are beginning to weigh in on Biden’s stimulus plan with some opposition from both sides of the aisle. Existing Home Sales is expected to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown to the number coming in at 6.55 million units. The real estate industry continues to be a shining star amongst a battered economy as demand continues to outweigh supply and rates remain very low. With many shifting work and school to their homes, more space is now a top priority for those that can afford to make a move.
Trading activity increased to $319 billion with $43 billion in Specified Pools.
Market Commentary [1.21.21]
Stocks edged higher as sentiment remains optimistic that additional fiscal spending will spur economic recovery. The Nasdaq climbed 0.5% and the S&P 500 extended its strong start in 2021 while in Europe, Stoxx 600 reached its highest level in 11 months. Investors are assessing President Biden’s nearly $2 trillion Covid-19 relief package and the prospects for it proceeding through Congress following his inauguration on Wednesday. In Bejing, China’s three largest telecommunications companies requested a review of their delisting from the NYSE and applied for the decision to be reversed.
Bond pricing continues to fade this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.113%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected at 900,000 vs 925,000. Continuing claims fell to 5.1 million total. Residential housing starts climbed 5.8% to a 1.67 million annualized rate in December. The full year saw 1.38 million starts, the highest since the mid-2000s. Applications to build increased 4.5% in December, also the highest since 2006. The pandemic has driven a surge in demand for larger properties with more space for families to work and learn at home as many continue a work/learn from home posture.
Bond pricing continues to fade this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.113%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected at 900,000 vs 925,000. Continuing claims fell to 5.1 million total. Residential housing starts climbed 5.8% to a 1.67 million annualized rate in December. The full year saw 1.38 million starts, the highest since the mid-2000s. Applications to build increased 4.5% in December, also the highest since 2006. The pandemic has driven a surge in demand for larger properties with more space for families to work and learn at home as many continue a work/learn from home posture.
Trading activity increased to $287 billion with $23 billion in Specified Pools.