Market Commentary [8.05.21]
Stocks edged higher amid mixed earnings reports and a slight decline in U.S. jobless claims. The DJIA led indexes, advancing 0.3% while the S&P 500 improved 0.2% after closing 0.5% lower on Wednesday. Concerns on the speed of the economic rebound have increased as the delta variant and weaker than expected labor data weighs on investor sentiment despite strong earnings results. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% while China’s SSE declined 0.3% and Hong Kong’s HSI closed 0.8% lower.
Bond and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.18%. Initial jobless claims came in at 385,000, very close to expectations and back below the psychological 400k mark. Claims have trended downward but are still well above pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims dropped to 2.93 million vs 3.255 million expected, the first time below 3 million since mid-March 2020. Concerns over the delta variant have increased in recent weeks putting additional pressure on the jobs market and throwing a wrench in many employer’s in-person, return to office plans. Ongoing enhanced federal unemployment support across several states has kept some workers on the sidelines until the start of fall.
Bond and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.18%. Initial jobless claims came in at 385,000, very close to expectations and back below the psychological 400k mark. Claims have trended downward but are still well above pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims dropped to 2.93 million vs 3.255 million expected, the first time below 3 million since mid-March 2020. Concerns over the delta variant have increased in recent weeks putting additional pressure on the jobs market and throwing a wrench in many employer’s in-person, return to office plans. Ongoing enhanced federal unemployment support across several states has kept some workers on the sidelines until the start of fall.
Market Commentary [8.04.21]
Stocks opened lower amid mixed corporate earnings as new data indicates that the private sector added fewer jobs than economist forecasts in July. The DJIA led indexes, declining 0.5% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after a record close on Tuesday. As investors cheer strong earnings and equities near record highs, there is increasing concern that second half earnings and growth will slow down as stocks continue to weather the delta variant and expectations of support from the central bank. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.4% led by technology shares, extending record closings for a second consecutive day.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.131%. Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP Employment Report. Medium and large business saw the bulk of the hiring with 238,000 jobs combined. Service producing jobs lead the way with 318,000 total job adds. The labor market remains uneven in terms of recovery, but overall seems to be making some progress overall. Bottlenecks in hiring have caused some hiccups in the process and new variants of covid have many concerned that there could be additional pressures on the labor market in the coming months.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.131%. Private sector employment increased by 330,000 jobs from June to July according to the July ADP Employment Report. Medium and large business saw the bulk of the hiring with 238,000 jobs combined. Service producing jobs lead the way with 318,000 total job adds. The labor market remains uneven in terms of recovery, but overall seems to be making some progress overall. Bottlenecks in hiring have caused some hiccups in the process and new variants of covid have many concerned that there could be additional pressures on the labor market in the coming months.
Market Commentary [8.03.21]
Stocks edged higher as strong corporate earnings stoke optimism that they may continue to grind higher. The S&P 500 and DJIA each improved 0.2% in early trading following muted losses on Monday. Second quarter earnings have been robust for the most part as investors remain optimistic that strong results coupled with continued support from central banks and economic growth indicators could further the trajectory for equities. U.S. listed shares of Chinese companies fell ahead of market open following criticism from a state-owned newspaper on online gaming, increasing concerns of further action from Beijing amid an ongoing technology clampdown.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields fall further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.176%. Manufacturing data showed slower expansion in July than in the previous month. Investors remain concerned about the spread of the delta variant as the seven day average of cases in the U.S. has reach over 72,000, surpassing the peak seen last summer. Factory orders and Core capital goods orders are due out at 10 am ET as well as motor vehicle sales sometime later Today. Economists are expecting a decline in factory orders, after a surge of 1.7% last month. Orders are expected to increase 1% for June.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields fall further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.176%. Manufacturing data showed slower expansion in July than in the previous month. Investors remain concerned about the spread of the delta variant as the seven day average of cases in the U.S. has reach over 72,000, surpassing the peak seen last summer. Factory orders and Core capital goods orders are due out at 10 am ET as well as motor vehicle sales sometime later Today. Economists are expecting a decline in factory orders, after a surge of 1.7% last month. Orders are expected to increase 1% for June.
Market Commentary [8.02.21]
Stocks opened higher as corporate earnings continue to boost investor sentiment. Major indexes climb toward record highs led by the Nasdaq improving 0.6% and the S&P 500 adding 0.5%. Investors cheered strong earnings growth with expectations that consumers will be spending more freely, and companies will be investing and restocking inventories. In Washington, the Senate is heading toward passage of a $550 billion infrastructure bill this week, also lifting global markets. On Sunday, China’s market regulator called for more cooperation with the U.S. on initial public offerings amid a regulatory crackdown causing turbulent weeks of trading in Asian markets. China’s SSE advanced nearly 2% by the close of trading while Hong Kong’s HSI improved over 1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.217%. Inflation and employment indicators are being watched closely by the Fed as nervousness around the delta variant could slow the recovery of the U.S. labor market. Constructions pending is due to be release at 10 am ET this morning along with manufacturing PMI for July at 9:45 am ET. Treasuries have tracked lower over the past few weeks, leading to lower mortgage rates. Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 7/29/21 shows the average 30 year fxd rate at 2.8%, while the average 15 year fxd rate is 2.1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.217%. Inflation and employment indicators are being watched closely by the Fed as nervousness around the delta variant could slow the recovery of the U.S. labor market. Constructions pending is due to be release at 10 am ET this morning along with manufacturing PMI for July at 9:45 am ET. Treasuries have tracked lower over the past few weeks, leading to lower mortgage rates. Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey as of 7/29/21 shows the average 30 year fxd rate at 2.8%, while the average 15 year fxd rate is 2.1%.
Market Commentary [7.30.21]
Stocks opened lower as signs indicate the pace of economic growth may be slowing coupled with lofty expectations on corporate earnings weight on investor sentiment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1% in early trading while the S&P 500 slipped 0.6% despite the index approaching its sixth straight month of gains. China’s recent crackdown of some if its fastest growing companies to improve competition and security has deeply impacted Chinese, Hong Kong and U.S. markets, erasing billions in combined market value. In Hong Kong, the selloff continued with the HSI dropping 1.3%, adding to a nearly 10% decline in July, its largest since 2018.
Bond pricing improves as treasury yields move slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.241%. Personal income came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in June. Core inflation was also released this morning and came in at 3.5% year over year vs 3.7% expected. This will come as a sigh of relief for markets who have been concerned with inflation. The Fed has taken a temporary stance with inflation thus far, and food and energy prices seem to be temporarily slowing for the month of June. Energy prices are up 24.2% year over year while Food prices are up 0.9%.
Bond pricing improves as treasury yields move slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.241%. Personal income came in at 0.1%, above expectations (-0.3%) in June. Core inflation was also released this morning and came in at 3.5% year over year vs 3.7% expected. This will come as a sigh of relief for markets who have been concerned with inflation. The Fed has taken a temporary stance with inflation thus far, and food and energy prices seem to be temporarily slowing for the month of June. Energy prices are up 24.2% year over year while Food prices are up 0.9%.
Market Commentary [7.29.21]
Stocks opened higher following the Federal Reserve’s latest read on the economy as fresh GDP data indicates strong consumer spending in the second quarter. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.4% after closing down less than 0.1% on Wednesday. U.S. GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter, pushing the economy beyond its pre-pandemic level, underscoring the speed of the recovery since last summer despite falling short of economists’ forecasts of an 8.4% annual rate for that time period. Earnings season continues with Amazon and T-Mobile set to post earnings after markets close. Overseas, China’s SSE regained 1.5% and Hong Kong’s HSI rose 3.3% on advances in the technology sector while the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.5% led by blue-chip earnings.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat after the Fed spoke yesterday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.264%. The Fed noted that progress had been made toward employment and inflation targets, however there is still substantial further progress needed. Some economists believe the Fed could look to announce a reduction in bond purchases as early as September, but more likely by December. Initial claims came in at 400,000 for the week ending 7/24. The total number of claimants is expected to continually decline as federal enhanced unemployment benefits across many states will phase-out by September.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat after the Fed spoke yesterday. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.264%. The Fed noted that progress had been made toward employment and inflation targets, however there is still substantial further progress needed. Some economists believe the Fed could look to announce a reduction in bond purchases as early as September, but more likely by December. Initial claims came in at 400,000 for the week ending 7/24. The total number of claimants is expected to continually decline as federal enhanced unemployment benefits across many states will phase-out by September.
Market Commentary [7.28.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision. The tech heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.2% in early trading a day after posting its worst decline in over two months. The market has hovered near all-time highs on strong corporate earnings and easy monetary policies from the central bank, though the delta variant and potential for tighter policies has weighted on investor sentiment. In Hong Kong, markets regained some ground following deep losses from the previous three sessions with the HSI improving 1.5% while China’s SSE slipped 0.6% for its fourth straight day of declines.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hold steady on news from the Fed. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.259%. All eyes are on the Fed decision Today to be released at 2pm ET. Economists are expecting no change in policy and continued comment from Powell reiterating that inflation is transitory. Some continue to be concerned with the delta variant of Covid causing rising hospitalizations in some areas, that could further restrict economic growth in the short run.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hold steady on news from the Fed. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.259%. All eyes are on the Fed decision Today to be released at 2pm ET. Economists are expecting no change in policy and continued comment from Powell reiterating that inflation is transitory. Some continue to be concerned with the delta variant of Covid causing rising hospitalizations in some areas, that could further restrict economic growth in the short run.
Market Commentary [7.27.21]
Stocks opened lower following record highs for the S&P 500 and DJIA as investors anticipate quarterly reports for the largest tech companies later today. The DJIA led indexes, slipping 0.6% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% in early trading after a five-day streak of gains. Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple are set to release second quarter earnings after markets close as investors look for insights on the impacts of lockdowns ending and resource constraints for the technology giants. Overseas, the selloff deepened on concerns of China’s regulatory crackdown in recent days. The SSE declined another 2.5% while Hong Kong’s HSI fell 4.2%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields taper lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.239%. Investors are holding steady ahead of the 2-day Fed meeting with an announcement to follow Tomorrow. Some are concerned that inflation could run higher for longer than the Fed anticipates, and that volatility could be triggered by changes in monetary policy. Home prices continue to move higher as strong demand meets weak supply. Nationally, home prices rose 16.6% in May from a year earlier. This is another new record for growth in the reporting for 30 years. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains. Phoenix saw prices rise 25.9% year over year followed by San Diego at 24.7% and Seattle at 23.4%. Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Seattle and Charlotte all saw their all-time highest annual gains in price.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields taper lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.239%. Investors are holding steady ahead of the 2-day Fed meeting with an announcement to follow Tomorrow. Some are concerned that inflation could run higher for longer than the Fed anticipates, and that volatility could be triggered by changes in monetary policy. Home prices continue to move higher as strong demand meets weak supply. Nationally, home prices rose 16.6% in May from a year earlier. This is another new record for growth in the reporting for 30 years. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains. Phoenix saw prices rise 25.9% year over year followed by San Diego at 24.7% and Seattle at 23.4%. Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Seattle and Charlotte all saw their all-time highest annual gains in price.
Market Commentary [7.26.21]
Stocks edged lower following all-time highs last week as investors prepare for megacap earnings reports this week. The Nasdaq led indexes, slipping 0.2% while the S&P 500 was little changed following an all-time high Friday and DJIA ticked 0.1% lower after the benchmark crossed the 3500 closing milestone for the first time in its history. Cryptocurrencies jumped, with bitcoin rising nearly 20% from its Friday level as investors indicate short positions being liquidated and speculation that Amazon may be looking into digital currencies. Tesla kicks off a group of megacap earnings reports this week including Apple and Microsoft. Overseas, Chinese shares retreated after Beijing announced sweeping reforms of the education tech industry, prompting a sharp selloff and stoking concerns of regulatory risks. The SSE dropped 2.3% while Hong Kong’s HSI lost 4.1% in its worst one-day performance of the year.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.263%. HUD will release new home sales data at 10 am ET this morning. The housing market has been strong, but over the past year prices have skyrocketed, leaving many back on the sidelines in terms of affordability. The Fed meets Wednesday to discuss interest rates with a decision and press conference released Wednesday afternoon. With recent treasury movement rates have declined by roughly 25 bps since the end of June. The average 30 Year Fxd rate is now 2.78%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate is 2.12% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/22/2021.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.263%. HUD will release new home sales data at 10 am ET this morning. The housing market has been strong, but over the past year prices have skyrocketed, leaving many back on the sidelines in terms of affordability. The Fed meets Wednesday to discuss interest rates with a decision and press conference released Wednesday afternoon. With recent treasury movement rates have declined by roughly 25 bps since the end of June. The average 30 Year Fxd rate is now 2.78%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate is 2.12% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/22/2021.
Market Commentary [7.23.21]
Stocks opened higher, pointing toward weekly gains as a strong start to earnings season improves investor confidence. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.5% followed by the S&P 500 adding 0.4%. Nearly 87% of companies listed on the S&P 500 that have reported results so far this season have exceeded Wall Street estimates. Investors are focusing on executives’ sentiment regarding their ability to pass higher input costs to customers versus taking the hit in profit margins which could lead to inflation taking longer to subside. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1% while Hong Kong’s HSI and China’s SSE dropped 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries try to find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.298%. Markit’s July PMI data, is due out at 9:45 ET and should give additional clarity into the state of the U.S. economic recovery. Yields moved downward yesterday after jobless claims data came in higher than expected. Existing home sales saw an increase of 1.4% month over month to an annualized rate of 5.86 million homes in June of 2021, marking the first increase in five months. Supply has started to catch up after months of shortage due to raw material and new housing shortages as well as limited existing housing inventory.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries try to find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.298%. Markit’s July PMI data, is due out at 9:45 ET and should give additional clarity into the state of the U.S. economic recovery. Yields moved downward yesterday after jobless claims data came in higher than expected. Existing home sales saw an increase of 1.4% month over month to an annualized rate of 5.86 million homes in June of 2021, marking the first increase in five months. Supply has started to catch up after months of shortage due to raw material and new housing shortages as well as limited existing housing inventory.
Market Commentary [7.22.21]
Stocks opened mixed following fresh data indicating an unexpected increase in applications for unemployment insurance last week. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.2% while the S&P 500 and DJIA were little changed. In recent days, equities have erased most of their losses from Monday’s sharp selloff, returning to within 1% of their all-time highs. Strong earnings results continue to improve investor confidence that recovery can continue with the majority of companies exceeding expectations. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe rose 0.6% while Hong Kong’s HSI gained 1.8% and China’s SSE improved 0.3%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.278%. Initial jobless claims rose to 419,000 last week, back above the 400,000 mark that economists have kept a keen eye on. Economists were expecting 350,000 claims over the period. Continuing claims dropped to 3.24 million, a new pandemic low. This was the highest reading for initial jobless claims since May 15th, with many expecting the jobs picture would have improved further as unemployment benefits end and companies have gotten more aggressive in filling vacant positions. Restaurant and retail businesses make up the highest portion of new jobs, but many are still concerned with delta Covid variants that could slow growth in the near future..
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.278%. Initial jobless claims rose to 419,000 last week, back above the 400,000 mark that economists have kept a keen eye on. Economists were expecting 350,000 claims over the period. Continuing claims dropped to 3.24 million, a new pandemic low. This was the highest reading for initial jobless claims since May 15th, with many expecting the jobs picture would have improved further as unemployment benefits end and companies have gotten more aggressive in filling vacant positions. Restaurant and retail businesses make up the highest portion of new jobs, but many are still concerned with delta Covid variants that could slow growth in the near future..
Market Commentary [7.21.21]
Stocks opened higher as the DJIA extends its rebound following its worst day of 2021 on Monday. The S&P 500 improved 0.3% after its biggest single day gain since March, nearly unwinding its steep drop from Monday. Investors continue to assess second quarter earnings reports with over 85% of companies reporting results listed on the S&P 500 exceeding analysts estimates to this point. As corporate earnings take some focus from coronavirus anxiety, investor sentiment remains cautious that variants of the virus may take steam out of the global economic rebound, leading to potential volatility the rest of the summer. Overseas, markets improved with the Stoxx Europe 600 rising 1.4% and China’s SSE adding 0.7%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.268%. There are no major economic releases Today. An auction is scheduled later Today for $30 billion worth of 119 day bills and $24 billion worth of 20-year bonds. On an otherwise quiet market day, treasury yields have bounced off yesterday’s lows. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey, the average 30 year fixed was 2.88% and the average 15 year fixed rate was 2.22% as of 7/15/21. Recent declines in treasury yields have moved mortgage rates slightly lower.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.268%. There are no major economic releases Today. An auction is scheduled later Today for $30 billion worth of 119 day bills and $24 billion worth of 20-year bonds. On an otherwise quiet market day, treasury yields have bounced off yesterday’s lows. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey, the average 30 year fixed was 2.88% and the average 15 year fixed rate was 2.22% as of 7/15/21. Recent declines in treasury yields have moved mortgage rates slightly lower.
Market Commentary [7.20.21]
Stocks opened lower amid increased anxiety over the delta variant as investors speculate the impact on near term re-openings and travel. The DJIA led indexes, dropping 1.8% as commodities, financials and industrial shares weigh on all major groups. Increasing cases of the coronavirus in several parts of the world, including the U.K. have lowered the level of investors’ expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Treasury yields are the lowest since February, an indication that investors are seeking shelter in the safety government bonds among other safe-haven assets. Airlines and oil companies were among the worst performers with United Airlines and American Airlines each declining near 5% while Brent crude fell 4.5%. European shares headed for their biggest slide of the year, the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 2.5%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Market Commentary [7.19.21]
Stocks opened lower amid increased anxiety over the delta variant as investors speculate the impact on near term re-openings and travel. The DJIA led indexes, dropping 1.8% as commodities, financials and industrial shares weigh on all major groups. Increasing cases of the coronavirus in several parts of the world, including the U.K. have lowered the level of investors’ expectations of economic growth in the coming months. Treasury yields are the lowest since February, an indication that investors are seeking shelter in the safety government bonds among other safe-haven assets. Airlines and oil companies were among the worst performers with United Airlines and American Airlines each declining near 5% while Brent crude fell 4.5%. European shares headed for their biggest slide of the year, the Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 2.5%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields fall to new lows. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.222%, re-visiting a new 5 month low. Some investors are warning that the entire financial market is acting as though a significant economic slowdown is nearing. With new covid variants, some are concerned that additional economic closures could resurface in some areas. In turn, this has GDP estimates coming in lower, driving bond yields lower and pushing economically sensitive stocks lower. The NAHB Home Builder’s Index is set to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a flat reading from last month. Rising costs have slowed a very hot housing market in recent weeks as homebuyers search limited existing inventory and face increased build cost due to material shortages. Many buyers have been priced out due to excessive bidding and rising costs.
Market Commentary [7.16.21]
Stocks ticked higher following improved retail data as investors continue to assess second quarter earnings reports. The Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.4% and pointing to gains in technology while the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on tech and consumer discretionary shares. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell defended the central bank’s accommodative stance that the post-lockdown surge in inflation still does not warrant the tapering of stimulus, underscoring an increasing divergence among global central banks that are turning to hawkish stances.
Bond pricing lowered as the 10-year Treasury note ticked up 1.32%, reversing course after two consecutive days of decline. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, opposed to economists’ expectations for another decrease following May’s 1.3% drop. Retail spending including stores, restaurants and online slowed in late spring after a surge in spending earlier in the year prompted by federal coronavirus aid to households. June’s increase marks a pickup in consumer spending on products and services associated with resumption of activity post Covid-19 restrictions. Meanwhile, auto sales fell 2%, the largest impediment on overall retail sales which would have risen 1.3% during the same period.
Bond pricing lowered as the 10-year Treasury note ticked up 1.32%, reversing course after two consecutive days of decline. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June, opposed to economists’ expectations for another decrease following May’s 1.3% drop. Retail spending including stores, restaurants and online slowed in late spring after a surge in spending earlier in the year prompted by federal coronavirus aid to households. June’s increase marks a pickup in consumer spending on products and services associated with resumption of activity post Covid-19 restrictions. Meanwhile, auto sales fell 2%, the largest impediment on overall retail sales which would have risen 1.3% during the same period.
Market Commentary [7.15.21]
Stocks opened lower following commentary from Fed Chairman Powell in Congress yesterday as investors await his appearance before the Senate later today. The S&P 500 led indexes, slipping 0.2% in early trading after hitting an intraday high on Wednesday. In his appearance before the House Financial Services Committee, Chairman Powell said that it was still too soon to scale back monetary support despite inflation rising faster than expected. In China, the SSE gained 1% despite reports from Beijing indicating slowing economic growth. Recently, China said it would lower the reserve ratio requirement on banks in order to free up more money for them to lend.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.327%. Fresh data shows that American applications for first-time unemployment benefits fell to 360,000 in the week ended on July 10, down from 386,000 the previous week. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell told lawmakers that the central bank is not in a hurry to start paring monthly asset purchases and that the economy is still way off from the Fed’s goals, though the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control. He reiterated that he still anticipates price pressures to ease later in the year. New data on U.S. industrial production during June is due to be released later this morning.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury note ticked down to 1.327%. Fresh data shows that American applications for first-time unemployment benefits fell to 360,000 in the week ended on July 10, down from 386,000 the previous week. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell told lawmakers that the central bank is not in a hurry to start paring monthly asset purchases and that the economy is still way off from the Fed’s goals, though the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control. He reiterated that he still anticipates price pressures to ease later in the year. New data on U.S. industrial production during June is due to be released later this morning.
Market Commentary [7.14.21]
Stocks opened higher as investors prepare for Fed Chairman Powell’s presentation on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee later today. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising 0.7%, indicating technology could outperform for a second day while the S&P 500 and DJIA each improved by 0.5%. Investors will look for any guidance on when and how the Fed plans to wind down its bond buying program during Mr. Powell’s presentation as well as the central bank’s willingness to let inflation run above target. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 edged lower, led by utilities, and travel and leisure while China’s SSE dropped 1.1% amid a regulatory crackdown on consumer-technology companies impacting investor appetite.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.377%. Fed Chairman Powell is set to present the central bank’s twice-yearly report on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee later today followed by testimony to the Senate on Thursday. In a prepared statement, Mr. Powell said that inflation had increased notably and would likely remain elevated in the coming months before moderating but recovery has not progressed enough to begin scaling back stimulus. The June U.S. inflation print on Tuesday exceeded all forecasts, indicating higher costs associated with the reopening from the pandemic. Fed officials continue to reiterate that they expect these pressures to be transitory though there is potential of more durable increases forcing an earlier than expected reduction in stimulus.
Bond pricing improved as the 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.377%. Fed Chairman Powell is set to present the central bank’s twice-yearly report on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee later today followed by testimony to the Senate on Thursday. In a prepared statement, Mr. Powell said that inflation had increased notably and would likely remain elevated in the coming months before moderating but recovery has not progressed enough to begin scaling back stimulus. The June U.S. inflation print on Tuesday exceeded all forecasts, indicating higher costs associated with the reopening from the pandemic. Fed officials continue to reiterate that they expect these pressures to be transitory though there is potential of more durable increases forcing an earlier than expected reduction in stimulus.
Market Commentary [7.13.21]
Stocks edged lower following fresh inflation data as investors start second quarter earnings season. The S&P 500 opened 0.1% lower, led by energy and financials after closing at all-time highs for the last two consecutive sessions. Indexes have climbed in recent sessions on the sentiment that companies are set to report strong quarterly earnings, particularly major banks who are expected to have benefited from the economic recovery. Overseas, Hong Kong’s HSI rose 1.6% while China’s SSE improved 0.5%.
The 10 Year Treasury yield ticked lower from 1.362% to 1.359%. U.S. consumer prices rose 5.4%, in June versus analysts’ forecast for a 5% increase, extending the highest annual rate of inflation in 13 years. Yields have weakened in recent months as investors transitioned from stocks to the bond market, aiding the resurgence in growth stocks. Fed Chairman Powell is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday to deliver the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
The 10 Year Treasury yield ticked lower from 1.362% to 1.359%. U.S. consumer prices rose 5.4%, in June versus analysts’ forecast for a 5% increase, extending the highest annual rate of inflation in 13 years. Yields have weakened in recent months as investors transitioned from stocks to the bond market, aiding the resurgence in growth stocks. Fed Chairman Powell is set to appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday to deliver the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
Market Commentary [7.09.21]
Stocks opened higher following a broad-based rebound though major indexes are poised to close the week lower. The DJIA led indexes, advancing 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.5% after its worst day in three weeks. Money managers are betting that global growth is still on track with the expectation that the start of second quarter earnings season next week will enhance confidence. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe rose 0.8%, erasing much of the losses sustained during the week while Hong Kong’s HSI added 0.7% and China’s SSE was little changed.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increase. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.343%. Retail sales declined by 1.3% in May, reversing two straight months of increases as Americans shifted spending habits to services and travel. Building materials and garden equipment sales were down 5.9%, autos were down 3.9%, and electronics were down 3.4% to round out the biggest declines. Clothing, health, food services, gas, and food and beverage stores all saw marginal gains as the economy has reopened and people have become more comfortable traveling for the summer.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields increase. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.343%. Retail sales declined by 1.3% in May, reversing two straight months of increases as Americans shifted spending habits to services and travel. Building materials and garden equipment sales were down 5.9%, autos were down 3.9%, and electronics were down 3.4% to round out the biggest declines. Clothing, health, food services, gas, and food and beverage stores all saw marginal gains as the economy has reopened and people have become more comfortable traveling for the summer.
Market Commentary [7.08.21]
Stocks dropped from record highs as increasing concerns on the delta variant coupled with labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks weigh on investor sentiment. The Nasdaq slid the furthest, falling 1.4% in early trading while the S&P 500 dropped 1.2% after closing at all time highs in eight of the last nine trading sessions. Shares in the energy and financial sectors that benefitted from the prospect of a speedy economic expansion are now lagging behind fast growing tech companies as investors continue to prepare for a potentially volatile summer of trading. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe lost 1.8% while the European Central Bank announced its intention to extend ultra-loose policy, raising the inflation target to 2% with room for moderate overshoots in needed.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields decline further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.301%. Initial jobless claims rose last week to 373,000. This was above estimates of an expected 350,000. Continuing claims decreased to 3.34 million, down slightly from the previous week. Federal enhanced benefits expire in September, which will likely push numbers lower as options for the unemployed dwindle and job openings become more attractive. There are still 14.2 million Americans receiving benefits through all programs.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields decline further. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.301%. Initial jobless claims rose last week to 373,000. This was above estimates of an expected 350,000. Continuing claims decreased to 3.34 million, down slightly from the previous week. Federal enhanced benefits expire in September, which will likely push numbers lower as options for the unemployed dwindle and job openings become more attractive. There are still 14.2 million Americans receiving benefits through all programs.
Market Commentary [7.07.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors wait for the release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes for cues on the central bank’s stance on labor and economic recovery. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.6% following a new record closing and suggesting large cap tech stocks may advance for a fourth consecutive session. Oil markets extended volatility after OPEC and its allies failed to agree on a deal to raise output. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe advanced 0.6%, close to its all-time high while the Shanghai Composite Index improved 0.7%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.335%. Investors are closely eyeing the Fed minute release this afternoon. Traders are looking for more clues into the central bank’s timeline on interest rate hikes. Most of the 18 members on the panel are now forecasting two proposed hikes for 2023. Seven of those members have moved up their timetable to early next year as a prudent time to adjust. Mortgage demand has declined for two straight weeks now as limited inventory and skyrocketing prices continue to weigh on the hot housing market. Applications decreased 1.8% last week according to the MBA, falling to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020. Both purchase and refinance business tapered, even though mortgage rates dropped. Home purchase applications are now down 14% from a year ago, with refinance applications down 8%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.335%. Investors are closely eyeing the Fed minute release this afternoon. Traders are looking for more clues into the central bank’s timeline on interest rate hikes. Most of the 18 members on the panel are now forecasting two proposed hikes for 2023. Seven of those members have moved up their timetable to early next year as a prudent time to adjust. Mortgage demand has declined for two straight weeks now as limited inventory and skyrocketing prices continue to weigh on the hot housing market. Applications decreased 1.8% last week according to the MBA, falling to the lowest level since the beginning of 2020. Both purchase and refinance business tapered, even though mortgage rates dropped. Home purchase applications are now down 14% from a year ago, with refinance applications down 8%.
Market Commentary [7.06.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors wait for a clearer view on the Federal Reserve’s next move while crude oil jumped to a six-year high. The S&P 500 was little changed, indicating the broad index may hover near its seventh consecutive record closing, its longest record setting streak since 1997. U.S. oil prices briefly rose to six-year highs following OPEC members and their allies failing to reach an agreement on raising output, indicating no further barrels entering the market in August. Investors are growing more concerned that an escalating price war will impact the global economic recovery and add to inflationary pressures. Minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting and additional context on the central bank’s stance are due Wednesday.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasuries continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.412%. Investors are focused on the Fed’s last meeting minutes, due out at 2 pm ET on Wednesday and are looking for any clues regarding the direction of monetary policy. Economic growth seems to remain steady with rates remaining low, and the housing market has continued to grow, however an escalation in prices has put increased pressure on affordability and limited supply continues to slowdown market forces. The average 30 Yr Fixed mortgage was 2.98% with the average 15 Yr Fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/1/21.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasuries continue to give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.412%. Investors are focused on the Fed’s last meeting minutes, due out at 2 pm ET on Wednesday and are looking for any clues regarding the direction of monetary policy. Economic growth seems to remain steady with rates remaining low, and the housing market has continued to grow, however an escalation in prices has put increased pressure on affordability and limited supply continues to slowdown market forces. The average 30 Yr Fixed mortgage was 2.98% with the average 15 Yr Fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey from 7/1/21.
Market Commentary [7.01.21]
Stocks opened higher following another record close for the S&P 500 while initial jobless claims posted a larger than expected decline. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.3% in early trading as the S&P 500 advanced for a fifth consecutive quarter. Brent crude rose over 2%, setting the international benchmark on pace for its highest price since the end of 2018. Members of OPEC and its allies are prepared to meet virtually to discuss the gradual increase of output in the coming months. West Texas Intermediate in the U.S. rose 2.5% and exceeded $75 a barrel for the first time since last October. Investor attention will turn to the manufacturing sector when two purchasing manager surveys will be released for indications on the pace of the economic recovery.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. Initial jobless claims fell back below 400,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June 26. Slightly better than economists expectations of 388,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.469 million, slightly higher than expected. This is the lowest reading of initial jobless claims since March 2020. Employers have struggled to fill open positions across the country and unemployment claims had stagnated in recent weeks as a result. However, investors are looking for continued improvement in the coming months as school reopen, which alleviates the burden of finding childcare as well as a complete phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. Initial jobless claims fell back below 400,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June 26. Slightly better than economists expectations of 388,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.469 million, slightly higher than expected. This is the lowest reading of initial jobless claims since March 2020. Employers have struggled to fill open positions across the country and unemployment claims had stagnated in recent weeks as a result. However, investors are looking for continued improvement in the coming months as school reopen, which alleviates the burden of finding childcare as well as a complete phase-out of federal enhanced unemployment benefits.
Market Commentary [6.30.21]
Stocks were little changed following positive new labor data as another strain of the coronavirus weighs on global markets. The S&P 500 closed at its 33rd all-time high for the year en route to over a 2% advance in June, marking five consecutive months of gains. The Nasdaq slipped 0.1% in early trading, however the tech heavy benchmark improved 6.5% in June and is on pace to close its best month since November. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.5% led by the index’s travel and leisure sector dropping 5.5% on concerns of Covid-19’s Delta variant moving through Europe. Markets in the southern countries of the region such as Spain and Portugal that rely heavily on tourism were hit the hardest.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.458%. The ADP Employment report showed private sector job growth increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June. The gains were evenly distributed across small, medium and large businesses. The service sector still remains the leader in adding jobs with over 624,000 adds. Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health services ranked at the top of the services sector for job adds. Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and Fed President Tom Barkin speaking round out the day in terms of economic release.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.458%. The ADP Employment report showed private sector job growth increased by 692,000 jobs from May to June. The gains were evenly distributed across small, medium and large businesses. The service sector still remains the leader in adding jobs with over 624,000 adds. Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health services ranked at the top of the services sector for job adds. Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and Fed President Tom Barkin speaking round out the day in terms of economic release.
Market Commentary [6.29.21]
Stocks were little changed following another record closing for the S&P 500. The DJIA led indexes, improving 0.4% as investors prepare for new data on consumer confidence levels. Analysts estimate that stocks will continue to grind higher with low yields on bonds and continued monetary support however there is growing concern that the market may be running too hot amid expectations that this quarter may be the peak of profit recovery from the pandemic. Brent crude improved 0.5% and has advanced over 40% for the year, OPEC and its allies are set to meet on Thursday to review output for the month of August.
Bond pricing and treasury yields continue to remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.497%. Consumer confidence numbers are due out at 10am ET, with economists expecting a slightly improved index as the economy continues to recover. Home prices in April increased 14.6% annually according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index release. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains; all three were up over 20% form the year before. The 14.6% annual gain is the highest increase recorded in the 30 years of S&P data. Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Seattle all saw the largest gains ever recorded. Demand has continued to outpace supply, with inventory 21% lower than May 2020. New home starts have struggled to keep up as well due to raw material shortages, which have fueled increased prices as well. Sales activity has gained dramatically on the higher end of the market but fallen sharply on the low end as more buyers become priced out, making it increasingly difficult for those who have not purchased or have remained on the sidelines.
Bond pricing and treasury yields continue to remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.497%. Consumer confidence numbers are due out at 10am ET, with economists expecting a slightly improved index as the economy continues to recover. Home prices in April increased 14.6% annually according to the latest S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index release. Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle reported the highest year over year gains; all three were up over 20% form the year before. The 14.6% annual gain is the highest increase recorded in the 30 years of S&P data. Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Seattle all saw the largest gains ever recorded. Demand has continued to outpace supply, with inventory 21% lower than May 2020. New home starts have struggled to keep up as well due to raw material shortages, which have fueled increased prices as well. Sales activity has gained dramatically on the higher end of the market but fallen sharply on the low end as more buyers become priced out, making it increasingly difficult for those who have not purchased or have remained on the sidelines.
Market Commentary [6.28.21]
Stocks edged higher following the market’s best week since February with the S&P 500 closing at a record high the 31st time this year. The Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.6% in early trading, indicating technology shares may stand to gain in today’s session. Bitcoin pricing whipsawed this weekend, dropping 6% after the U.K.’s leading financial regulator announced that Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange network was not permitted to conduct local operations related to regulated financial activities. Pricing eventually recovered lost ground on Sunday and is now trading above $34,300. Overseas, markets were little changed with the Stoxx Europe 600 ticking up 0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipping within 0.1%.
Bond pricing and treasuries remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.504%. Yields rose late last week on the core cpi release showing a 3.4% increase year over year for May. This is the biggest jump since April of 1992. Investors will focus on the unemployment rate next, scheduled for Friday’s release. Mortgage rates have remained static over the past few weeks as treasury yields have hovered in place. The average 30 year fixed was at 3.02%, while the average 15 year fixed was 2.34% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey from 6/24/2021.
Bond pricing and treasuries remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.504%. Yields rose late last week on the core cpi release showing a 3.4% increase year over year for May. This is the biggest jump since April of 1992. Investors will focus on the unemployment rate next, scheduled for Friday’s release. Mortgage rates have remained static over the past few weeks as treasury yields have hovered in place. The average 30 year fixed was at 3.02%, while the average 15 year fixed was 2.34% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey from 6/24/2021.
Market Commentary [6.25.21]
Stocks opened higher, extending weekly gains as investor sentiment renews confidence following the Fed’s hawkish pivot last week. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising 0.6% and is on track for its sixth consecutive weekly advance while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and is on pace for its best week since April. On Thursday, President Biden and a group of 10 senators agreed to a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure plan, however the bipartisan deal will hinge on the additional passage of Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda. Overseas, China’s SSE advanced 1.2% and Hong Kong’s HSI improved 1.4%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Personal income dipped by 2% in May. Compensation was offset recently by stimulus checks which have now subsided. Consumer spending was flat and savings dipped by 2.1% to 12.4% in total. Core inflation rose 0.3% to 3.4% , matching market consensus. Overall, the dollar seems to have weakened relative to its rivals on the news, with the US Dollar Index losing .22% on the day.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Personal income dipped by 2% in May. Compensation was offset recently by stimulus checks which have now subsided. Consumer spending was flat and savings dipped by 2.1% to 12.4% in total. Core inflation rose 0.3% to 3.4% , matching market consensus. Overall, the dollar seems to have weakened relative to its rivals on the news, with the US Dollar Index losing .22% on the day.
Market Commentary [6.24.21]
Stocks opened higher on new labor data and increases in orders for durable goods following two consecutive all-time closing highs for the Nasdaq Composite Index. The S&P 500 and DJIA improved over 0.5% in early trading as stocks grind higher on easing concerns about inflation and tightening monetary policy. Analysts are becoming more confident that interest rates will note rise for some time, leading to comeback for technology shares. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6% while Hong Kong’s HSI ticked up 0.2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.485%. Another 411,000 filed unemployment claims last week, slightly higher than the expected 380,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.39 million, slightly better than the expected 3.46 million. Investors seem to have built a psychological 400,000 level for initial jobless claims, with this and last week's numbers above the threshold. Investors are watching closely for continued improvement, but the last two readings have stalled above the 400,000 level. Issues in the labor market have shifted to the supply side, with companies citing difficulties finding workers to fill job openings.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.485%. Another 411,000 filed unemployment claims last week, slightly higher than the expected 380,000. Continuing claims remain at 3.39 million, slightly better than the expected 3.46 million. Investors seem to have built a psychological 400,000 level for initial jobless claims, with this and last week's numbers above the threshold. Investors are watching closely for continued improvement, but the last two readings have stalled above the 400,000 level. Issues in the labor market have shifted to the supply side, with companies citing difficulties finding workers to fill job openings.
Market Commentary [6.23.21]
Stocks edged higher, indicating that indexes may hover near all-time highs ahead of new data on the labor market and GDP set to be released on Thursday. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.3% a day after closing at its all-time high. Brent crude rose 1.6%, exceeding $74 a barrel while copper regained some ground, improving over 1%. Overseas, China’s SSE improved 0.3% while Hong Kong’s HSI advanced 1.8%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed Chairman Powell’s speech reassured investors about inflation and flattened bond yields. U.S. oil prices have surged 52%, topping $74 a barrel, but Powell continues to attribute most of the surge to factors surrounding the economic recovery from the pandemic. Powell remains certain that the U.S. will not see 1970s-era inflation, calling it “very, very unlikely”. U.S. debt to other countries continues to grow as a result of the pandemic. The U.S. current account deficit increased by $20.7 billion to $195.7 billion in the first three months of this year. The largest gap since 2007 was due to an increase in the U.S. trade deficit in goods. U.S. imports set a record high in March, however economists believe the account deficit will subside as the other countries rebound from the pandemic and U.S. exports fully recover.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed Chairman Powell’s speech reassured investors about inflation and flattened bond yields. U.S. oil prices have surged 52%, topping $74 a barrel, but Powell continues to attribute most of the surge to factors surrounding the economic recovery from the pandemic. Powell remains certain that the U.S. will not see 1970s-era inflation, calling it “very, very unlikely”. U.S. debt to other countries continues to grow as a result of the pandemic. The U.S. current account deficit increased by $20.7 billion to $195.7 billion in the first three months of this year. The largest gap since 2007 was due to an increase in the U.S. trade deficit in goods. U.S. imports set a record high in March, however economists believe the account deficit will subside as the other countries rebound from the pandemic and U.S. exports fully recover.
Market Commentary [6.22.21]
Stocks were little changed following the biggest rally in five weeks as investors await comments from Fed Chairman Powell regarding the outlook for inflation and labor. The DJIA wavered in early trading after posting its biggest advance in over three months on Monday. The S&P 500 fluctuated, led by raw materials and retail shares while some financials declined. GameStop rose 7% after announcing the company had raised over $1 billion from the sale of shares. Bitcoin’s slide continues as the crackdown on cryptocurrencies in China has pushed it below $30,000 for the first time since January.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the coronavirus at 2 pm ET Today. Cleveland Fed President Loreta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also speak mid-morning on other topics. Existing Home Sales is due out at 10 am ET. Economists have forecast 5.73 million, a slight dip below the last reading of 5.85 million in April. Existing home sales have been on a continual decline since January, which in turn have fueled prices increasingly higher. The median existing home price in April came in at a record $341,600, a rise of 19.1 percent from April the year before.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on the coronavirus at 2 pm ET Today. Cleveland Fed President Loreta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also speak mid-morning on other topics. Existing Home Sales is due out at 10 am ET. Economists have forecast 5.73 million, a slight dip below the last reading of 5.85 million in April. Existing home sales have been on a continual decline since January, which in turn have fueled prices increasingly higher. The median existing home price in April came in at a record $341,600, a rise of 19.1 percent from April the year before.
Market Commentary [6.21.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investor sentiment calms after the Fed’s hawkish pivot, leading to a selloff in risk assets last week. The DJIA advanced 0.6% following a tumultuous week in which the benchmark suffered its largest decline since the end of October. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5%, ending a four day streak of losses led by shares tied to reopenings outperforming technology, while the Nasdaq started 0.3% lower. Cryptocurrencies have come under pressure recently as a clampdown on bitcoin mining intensifies in China. Bitcoin and Ether declined by more than 8% and 10% respectively while dogecoin dropped over 20%.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak on a Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9 a.m. ET. The Fed raised its inflation forecast in its meeting last week, signaling an interest rate hike could happen as early as 2023. Bullard believes it could even happen in 2022. The 10 year treasury dipped early this morning to its lowest level since late February. The yield dropped to 1.354% before rebounding to current levels. The 10 Year yield still remains near 3 month lows.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields increase slightly. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.478%. Fed President James Bullard and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan are set to speak on a Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum panel at 9 a.m. ET. The Fed raised its inflation forecast in its meeting last week, signaling an interest rate hike could happen as early as 2023. Bullard believes it could even happen in 2022. The 10 year treasury dipped early this morning to its lowest level since late February. The yield dropped to 1.354% before rebounding to current levels. The 10 Year yield still remains near 3 month lows.
Market Commentary [6.18.21]
Stocks opened lower, led by the DJIA falling 1.2% following a nearly 2% decline this week through Thursday, putting the index on track for its worst week since late January. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8% in early trading, indicating the benchmark’s run of three weeks of gains could end. Investors gained some confidence that the Fed would be proactive addressing inflation after the FOMC announced expected interest rate increases by late 2023, leading to a retreat in banking and energy shares and removing steam from the recent rally. Today marks one of four quadruple witching days this year in which four types of contracts are set to expire on the same day including futures and options linked to individual stocks and indexes.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.512%. Even though there was little move in treasuries after the Fed announcement, many economists are predicting a rise in the 10 Year Treasury to 2% or more in the next six to seven months. It’s believed that even though the Fed has a transitory look toward current inflation readings, investors are becoming increasingly leery of just how long inflation may last, which is very troubling to some. Data released Thursday from online real estate broker Redfin, showed the number of homes for sale fell 27% in May from a year ago. Houses are on the market for an average of 16 days and 54% of houses for sale sold above their list price. Record low inventory coupled with record high prices.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.512%. Even though there was little move in treasuries after the Fed announcement, many economists are predicting a rise in the 10 Year Treasury to 2% or more in the next six to seven months. It’s believed that even though the Fed has a transitory look toward current inflation readings, investors are becoming increasingly leery of just how long inflation may last, which is very troubling to some. Data released Thursday from online real estate broker Redfin, showed the number of homes for sale fell 27% in May from a year ago. Houses are on the market for an average of 16 days and 54% of houses for sale sold above their list price. Record low inventory coupled with record high prices.
Market Commentary [6.17.21]
Stocks opened mixed following the FOMC indicating its intention to raise interest rates earlier than forecasted. Major indexes in the U.S. were little changed while Europe’s Stoxx 600 declined for the first time in 10 sessions, slipping 0.4%. Fed officials provided the clearest signals to date that gradually scaling back easy monetary policies is on the table as their median projection indicated lifting their benchmark rate to 0.6% by the end of 2023. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen is set to testify before a House panel on the federal budget later today.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries find new footing. The Fed raised its inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full point higher than the March projection. The Fed also noted that rate hikes could be coming as soon as 2023. There was no mention of the central bank beginning to taper its bond-buying program, something many investors were looking for. Initial jobless claims jumped to 412,000 last week, well above the 360,000 expected and a turn around from recent continual declines. There are 3.518 million continuing claims, slightly above expectations of 3.425 million. On June 12, Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, and Mississippi became the first states to reduce enhanced federal unemployment benefits before their official September expiration.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasuries find new footing. The Fed raised its inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full point higher than the March projection. The Fed also noted that rate hikes could be coming as soon as 2023. There was no mention of the central bank beginning to taper its bond-buying program, something many investors were looking for. Initial jobless claims jumped to 412,000 last week, well above the 360,000 expected and a turn around from recent continual declines. There are 3.518 million continuing claims, slightly above expectations of 3.425 million. On June 12, Alaska, Iowa, Missouri, and Mississippi became the first states to reduce enhanced federal unemployment benefits before their official September expiration.
Market Commentary [6.16.21]
Stocks were little changed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest projections on inflation, labor and its bond purchasing program. The Nasdaq led indexes, ticking up 0.3% while the S&P 500 continues to hover near an all-time high. Looking to the acceleration of inflation and economic growth this year, investors will be trying to gauge the Fed’s consideration to move up discussions on scaling back monetary stimulus and starting the foundation for the first post-pandemic interest rate hike. Overseas, China ordered state firms to curb international commodities exposure in order to mitigate rising prices on raw materials. The SSE Composite Index fell 1.1% while the Stoxx Europe 600 notched its eighth consecutive record close, improving 0.3%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat ahead of the Fed announcement scheduled for 2pm ET Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. Housing starts are 1.572 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly below economists’ expectations of 1.63 million. This is still 3.6% above April’s reading and 50.3% above the May 2020 annualized rate. Building permits, a leading indicator of overall housing performance, remain elevated at 1.681 million, but came in 3% below April’s reading. Permits still remain 34.9% above levels from a year ago in May. Demand has been strong for housing throughout the crisis, but builders have struggled to meet demand due to material costs and shortages of both raw materials and qualified workers.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat ahead of the Fed announcement scheduled for 2pm ET Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.487%. Housing starts are 1.572 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly below economists’ expectations of 1.63 million. This is still 3.6% above April’s reading and 50.3% above the May 2020 annualized rate. Building permits, a leading indicator of overall housing performance, remain elevated at 1.681 million, but came in 3% below April’s reading. Permits still remain 34.9% above levels from a year ago in May. Demand has been strong for housing throughout the crisis, but builders have struggled to meet demand due to material costs and shortages of both raw materials and qualified workers.
Market Commentary [6.15.21]
Stocks edged lower following new data indicating retail spending dropped in May as supply chain issues and reopenings stoke a shift from goods to services. The tech heavy Nasdaq slipped 0.4% in early trading while the S&P 500 continues to hover near its all time high. Analysts anticipate investor sentiment to remain relatively calm ahead of the FOMC rate decision and comments to be released tomorrow. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 imrproved 0.3%, extending its run of record closings while China’s SSE dropped 0.9% and Hong Kong’s HSI declined 0.7%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.492%. Investors are patiently awaiting new cues from the Fed as they wrap up their two day meeting Tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement at 2pm ET. Retail sales struggled in April, with a disappointing reading of 0%. March saw a 10.7% surge as the first round of stimulus checks was sent to most households. In this morning’s release retail sales fell 1.3%, with spending shifting from consumer goods back to services as service based businesses have re-opened post covid.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.492%. Investors are patiently awaiting new cues from the Fed as they wrap up their two day meeting Tomorrow, followed by the Fed announcement at 2pm ET. Retail sales struggled in April, with a disappointing reading of 0%. March saw a 10.7% surge as the first round of stimulus checks was sent to most households. In this morning’s release retail sales fell 1.3%, with spending shifting from consumer goods back to services as service based businesses have re-opened post covid.
Market Commentary [6.14.21]
Stocks opened relatively flat as shares listed on the S&P 500 ground toward a new record after closing the previous week at an all-time high. The FOMC meeting on Wednesday will dominate investor attention with inflation and labor as prominent points of focus for policy makers. Novavax Inc. improved nearly 8% after revealing that late stage data showed its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was 90% effective against the virus. Brent crude rose 0.9% and above $73, its highest since April 2019, extending a run of three weekly gains as optimism increases that economic reopening will boost summer demand.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.469%. There are no major economic releases Today, but the FOMC will be meeting this week to discuss policy, followed by a press conference 2pm ET Wednesday from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is expected to reiterate its easy monetary policy approach, with some investors turning skeptical with recent hotter than expected inflation data. Investors will look for signs that recent data has impacted the Fed’s forecast. Even with slightly higher inflation data, treasury yields have been relatively sticky over the past 3 months, with yields horizontally trading in a tighter range. The 10 Year tested recent highs of 1.75% at the end of March. On the flip side, we are currently near 3 month lows.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.469%. There are no major economic releases Today, but the FOMC will be meeting this week to discuss policy, followed by a press conference 2pm ET Wednesday from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed is expected to reiterate its easy monetary policy approach, with some investors turning skeptical with recent hotter than expected inflation data. Investors will look for signs that recent data has impacted the Fed’s forecast. Even with slightly higher inflation data, treasury yields have been relatively sticky over the past 3 months, with yields horizontally trading in a tighter range. The 10 Year tested recent highs of 1.75% at the end of March. On the flip side, we are currently near 3 month lows.
Market Commentary [6.11.21]
Stocks opened higher following the S&P 500 closing at a record high, extending gains for the third consecutive week. The major indexes are hovering near record highs, led by the DJIA improving 0.3% in early trading. On Thursday, the Labor Department announced that the economic rebound has been the largest driving force leading to consumer price increases in May, aiding the sentiment that inflation pressures may ease later this year. Overseas, the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast and renewed a pledge to maintain faster emergency bond buying to sustain the region. The Stoxx Europe improved 0.6% after closing at a record high on Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. There is little economic news Today. Consumer sentiment is released at 10am ET. Economists are expecting an improved reading of 84.4 over the last reading of 82.9. Rates are still hovering below the 3% mark according to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey as of 6/10/21. The average 30 Yr Fxd is 2.96%, while the average 15 Yr Fxd is 2.23%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.459%. There is little economic news Today. Consumer sentiment is released at 10am ET. Economists are expecting an improved reading of 84.4 over the last reading of 82.9. Rates are still hovering below the 3% mark according to Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey as of 6/10/21. The average 30 Yr Fxd is 2.96%, while the average 15 Yr Fxd is 2.23%.
Market Commentary [6.10.21]
Stocks opened higher following a greater increase in consumer prices than expected as the labor market continues to recover. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.6% while the S&P 500 improved 0.4%, maintaining pace for a new closing record. Original meme stock GameStop declined nearly 7% after announcing the company was planning a stock offering and disclosed that regulators are investigating trading of its stock. Leaders of the Group of Seven economies are set to hold a three-day summit in England starting Friday.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.514%. Initial jobless claims came in at 376,000 vs 370,000 expected. Slightly higher than expected, but still improved over prior weeks, and a continued decline over the past six straight weeks. Continuing claims remain relatively high at 3.5 million. The consumer price index increased 0.6% last month, accelerating 5.0% year over year. The largest increase since August 2008. This was slightly above economists predictions of 4.7% year over year growth. Core inflation also saw an increase of 3.8% in May, which was the largest 12 month increase since June 1992. Some economists believe that we still have not seen peak inflation, but that it should occur in the current quarter and keep an elevated pace through 2021.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.514%. Initial jobless claims came in at 376,000 vs 370,000 expected. Slightly higher than expected, but still improved over prior weeks, and a continued decline over the past six straight weeks. Continuing claims remain relatively high at 3.5 million. The consumer price index increased 0.6% last month, accelerating 5.0% year over year. The largest increase since August 2008. This was slightly above economists predictions of 4.7% year over year growth. Core inflation also saw an increase of 3.8% in May, which was the largest 12 month increase since June 1992. Some economists believe that we still have not seen peak inflation, but that it should occur in the current quarter and keep an elevated pace through 2021.
Market Commentary [6.09.21]
Stocks edged higher as the S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% following its third highest close on record yesterday. The Nasdaq improved 0.4%, suggesting continued gains for technology shares. Clover Health Investments advanced another 24% in premarket trading after an 86% surge on Tuesday. Investors are observing the start of summer and its implied reduced liquidity due to vacations leading to less market participants and lower trading volumes. Overseas, the SSE Composite Index ticked up 0.3% as fresh data showed a higher than expected increase in China’s producer prices due to a rise in commodity prices. Their consumer price index reported below forecasts, indicating that the higher costs have not yet been passed to consumers.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up yield. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.486%. Wholesale inventories is scheduled for release Today at 10 am ET. There are no other released Today. Investors are watching closely for Tomorrow’s releases with initial jobless claims, consumer price index, and core cpi being released at 8:30am ET. Economists are expecting inflation data to show a rise of roughly 4.7% from last year. Some believe it could prompt the Federal Reserve to taper asset purchases sooner rather than later, despite the Fed stating that higher price pressures were temporary. Inflation seems to be heating up rather quickly beginning with April’s numbers. Initial jobless claims has shown improvement in recent weeks, dropping below 400,000 new claims. Unemployment incentives have kept many thinking twice about returning to work. Job openings in April were a record high of 9.3 million in the latest Labor Department’s Job Openings Survey.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up yield. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.486%. Wholesale inventories is scheduled for release Today at 10 am ET. There are no other released Today. Investors are watching closely for Tomorrow’s releases with initial jobless claims, consumer price index, and core cpi being released at 8:30am ET. Economists are expecting inflation data to show a rise of roughly 4.7% from last year. Some believe it could prompt the Federal Reserve to taper asset purchases sooner rather than later, despite the Fed stating that higher price pressures were temporary. Inflation seems to be heating up rather quickly beginning with April’s numbers. Initial jobless claims has shown improvement in recent weeks, dropping below 400,000 new claims. Unemployment incentives have kept many thinking twice about returning to work. Job openings in April were a record high of 9.3 million in the latest Labor Department’s Job Openings Survey.
Market Commentary [6.08.21]
Stocks opened mixed, extending a relatively tight range in recent sessions as inflation concerns continue to dominate investor sentiment. The Nasdaq led indexes rising 0.8% while the DJIA fell 0.2% in early trading. Shares of Clover Health Investments, the latest meme stock, soared 37% following its 32% advancement on Monday, while other meme stocks such as AMC Entertainment and GameStop improved around 5%. Bitcoin prices continue to fall, dropping below $33,000, its lowest level since late January. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for a third day, putting it on course to close at a fresh all-time high.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.525%. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, U.S. small business confidence has slipped lower over the last month, marking the first decline in four months. A nationwide labor shortage coupled with inflation worries weighed on business owners’ future prospects. The optimism reading fell to 99.6 in May. The quality of labor ranked as businesses’ biggest problem. Many Americans have opted to remain at home because of childcare issues, enhanced unemployment benefits and ongoing worries about COVID-19.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.525%. According to the NFIB Small Business Survey, U.S. small business confidence has slipped lower over the last month, marking the first decline in four months. A nationwide labor shortage coupled with inflation worries weighed on business owners’ future prospects. The optimism reading fell to 99.6 in May. The quality of labor ranked as businesses’ biggest problem. Many Americans have opted to remain at home because of childcare issues, enhanced unemployment benefits and ongoing worries about COVID-19.
Market Commentary [6.07.21]
Stocks opened relatively flat as investors continue to assess improved labor data against supply chain issues and high valuations. The S&P 500 edged higher by 0.1% following its second highest close in history on Friday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.1%, suggesting that investors are looking beyond pure growth narratives to sustain gains. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Yellen endorsed President Biden’s spending plans saying that it would be good, even if it contributes to rising inflation as a slightly higher interest-rate environment would be a plus. Bitcoin rebounded above $36,000 following a tumultuous weekend in which China intensified a crackdown on bitcoin trading and mining.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat with limited economic news Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.569%. 30 Year fixed rate mortgages are still hovering below 3%, with the average at 2.99%. 15 year fixed are hovering at 2.27% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey data as of June 3rd. Treasuries have stalled in recent weeks with little economic push, keeping rates steady amidst low housing inventory and raw material shortages that have led to increased prices and higher home values across the country. Consumer Credit is scheduled to be released later Today as investors watch closely for signals on household’s willingness to borrow to finance their spending.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat with limited economic news Today. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.569%. 30 Year fixed rate mortgages are still hovering below 3%, with the average at 2.99%. 15 year fixed are hovering at 2.27% according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey data as of June 3rd. Treasuries have stalled in recent weeks with little economic push, keeping rates steady amidst low housing inventory and raw material shortages that have led to increased prices and higher home values across the country. Consumer Credit is scheduled to be released later Today as investors watch closely for signals on household’s willingness to borrow to finance their spending.
Market Commentary [6.04.21]
Stocks opened higher as new data indicates a continued recovery in the labor market. Mega cap tech shares pushed the Nasdaq toward its best one-day gain in nearly two weeks, advancing 0.8% while the S&P 500 improved 0.5%. Mixed data between the U.S. economy adding slightly fewer jobs than forecasted coupled with the unemployment rate dropping more than expected suggests the Fed will continue its patient approach before paring back its fiscal and monetary support. Overseas markets were mixed with the Stoxx Europe 600 and SSE each ticking up 0.2% while Hong Kong’s HSI declined 0.2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.593%. The economy added back 559,000 jobs in May, dropping the unemployment rate to 5.8%. Economists were expecting a reading of 5.9%. Industries within the service sector that were deeply impacted by the shutdown saw a surge in re-employment during May. Leisure and hospitality added 292,000 jobs, but still 2.7 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Education and health added 87,000 jobs, roughly three times the amount for April.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.593%. The economy added back 559,000 jobs in May, dropping the unemployment rate to 5.8%. Economists were expecting a reading of 5.9%. Industries within the service sector that were deeply impacted by the shutdown saw a surge in re-employment during May. Leisure and hospitality added 292,000 jobs, but still 2.7 million jobs short of pre-pandemic levels. Education and health added 87,000 jobs, roughly three times the amount for April.
Market Commentary [6.03.21]
Stocks opened lower following fresh labor market data beating expectations, leading to speculation on the Federal Reserve’s timeline to withdraw its support. The Nasdaq led indexes, falling 0.9% with a retreat for technology shares while the S&P slipped 0.6%. Supply chain issues have been a growing concern for investors as bottle necks for materials have bolstered input costs for products and are impacting restaurants and stores with consumers return to in person commerce. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 declined 0.6% after a record high while the SSE slid 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.1%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.598%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly under expectations at 385,000. The first reading below 400,000 as the market continues to recover. Texas, Oregon and Florida led the pack in decreased claims, while Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and Kentucky all saw increases. Continuing claims still remain high at 3.77 million, up from the last reading of 3.60 million. The number of Americans claiming benefits across all unemployment programs totaled 15.4 million during the week ended May 15.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.598%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly under expectations at 385,000. The first reading below 400,000 as the market continues to recover. Texas, Oregon and Florida led the pack in decreased claims, while Pennsylvania, California, Illinois and Kentucky all saw increases. Continuing claims still remain high at 3.77 million, up from the last reading of 3.60 million. The number of Americans claiming benefits across all unemployment programs totaled 15.4 million during the week ended May 15.
Market Commentary [6.02.21]
Stocks edged higher as meme shares made popular by retail traders surged in early trading. Major indexes hovering near all-time highs ticked up following the bell, led by the DJIA improving 0.2%. Despite positive levels, investors are looking to find justification on high valuations already commanded by several stocks with concerns that they will struggle to continue improvement without unprecedented fiscal support. AMC Entertainment jumped 13% following a 22% rally on Tuesday after announcing it had sold shares to a hedge fund while BlackBerry improved by 9.5%. Investors will turn to the release of the Fed’s beige book report later today for insights on the current economic condition and how businesses are faring.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.603%. Several Fed speakers are scheduled to speak Today, kicking off at noon and 2pm ET along with the Beige Book. Motor vehicle sales is also scheduled to be released sometime Today. Raw material shortages, specifically computer chips, have hampered production of new vehicles and caused shortages of new vehicles for purchase in recent months. Dealership supply has dwindled, leaving lots eerily empty in some cases. Even with material shortages, demand has remained steady and strong over the past year for new vehicles with 18.5 million light vehicle units sold in April, which was above pre-pandemic levels.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.603%. Several Fed speakers are scheduled to speak Today, kicking off at noon and 2pm ET along with the Beige Book. Motor vehicle sales is also scheduled to be released sometime Today. Raw material shortages, specifically computer chips, have hampered production of new vehicles and caused shortages of new vehicles for purchase in recent months. Dealership supply has dwindled, leaving lots eerily empty in some cases. Even with material shortages, demand has remained steady and strong over the past year for new vehicles with 18.5 million light vehicle units sold in April, which was above pre-pandemic levels.
Market Commentary [6.01.21]
Stocks opened higher ahead of manufacturing data set to be released later this morning as investor confidence continues to increase that the Fed will not pull back stimulus measures to combat rising inflation. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.9% while the S&P 500 improved 0.7% following a fourth consecutive monthly advance before the Memorial Day weekend. Commodity and raw material prices have pushed higher along with the recovery, including gold, iron ore and copper. Brent crude oil prices rose over 3% putting it on track to close above $70 a barrel for the first time since May 2019 as members of OPEC are due to meet today to review potential increased production over the summer.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. Investors are still digesting last week’s inflation data and are looking ahead to Friday’s Employment data as well. Economists are expecting 674,000 jobs to be created in May after a lackluster reading in April of 266,000. ISM manufacturing and the Markit Manufacturing PMI are due out this morning with expectations in line with prior month’s readings. Rates continue to hover as treasury yields have remained somewhat flat over the month of May. The 30 Yr fxd rate average is still 2.95%, while the average 15 Yr fxd is 2.27% as of May 27th.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields inch higher this morning. The 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. Investors are still digesting last week’s inflation data and are looking ahead to Friday’s Employment data as well. Economists are expecting 674,000 jobs to be created in May after a lackluster reading in April of 266,000. ISM manufacturing and the Markit Manufacturing PMI are due out this morning with expectations in line with prior month’s readings. Rates continue to hover as treasury yields have remained somewhat flat over the month of May. The 30 Yr fxd rate average is still 2.95%, while the average 15 Yr fxd is 2.27% as of May 27th.
Market Commentary [5.28.21]
Stocks edged higher after new data showed increased inflation in April indicating that demand for inflation-protected bonds is pushing up market inflation expectations. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, improving 0.4% while the S&P 500 and DJIA each advanced by 0.3%. Fed officials and investors continue to monitor inflation data to gauge whether pressures will be temporary or long lasting to determine if the central bank’s current policy needs to be revised. Sentiment still remains that the Fed will not raise rates aggressively but remain behind the curve to aid in the recovery.
Bond pricing is worse by a few ticks as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.613%. Core inflation showed an increase of 0.7% in April with the annual core inflation rate, most often watched closely by the Fed, up to 3.1%, a multi-decade high. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in April as they continue to catch up on activities forbidden during lockdown. The combination of rising demand and restricted supply continues to push inflation upward, forcing many households to now pay more for gas, food, and other necessities.
Bond pricing is worse by a few ticks as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.613%. Core inflation showed an increase of 0.7% in April with the annual core inflation rate, most often watched closely by the Fed, up to 3.1%, a multi-decade high. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in April as they continue to catch up on activities forbidden during lockdown. The combination of rising demand and restricted supply continues to push inflation upward, forcing many households to now pay more for gas, food, and other necessities.
Market Commentary [5.27.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors asses new economic releases regarding initial jobless claims and orders for durable goods. The DJIA led indexes, rising 0.6% while the Nasdaq ticked lower, slipping 0.1%. Indexes have wavered as concerns on runaway inflation have abated while Fed officials indicated that discussions on adjusting the pace of asset purchases may start in the near future. Equities have pushed higher in May despite volatile trading sessions due to inflation and its potential impact on the Fed’s loose monetary policy. Analysts are now seeing sentiment favoring a move back to cyclical stocks, poised to perform with the reopening economy.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. Initial jobless claims fell to 406,000 for the week ended May 22nd, the lowest post pandemic level seen. Economists were expecting 425,000 claims. Continuing claims came in at 3.642 million vs 3.68 million expected. An elevated number of Americans are still claiming unemployment benefits, even as the pace of new filings slows. Over 15.9 million individuals were claiming benefits of some form as of the week ended May 8th. GDP was also released this morning showing a 6.4% annualized rate, unchanged from the estimate.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. Initial jobless claims fell to 406,000 for the week ended May 22nd, the lowest post pandemic level seen. Economists were expecting 425,000 claims. Continuing claims came in at 3.642 million vs 3.68 million expected. An elevated number of Americans are still claiming unemployment benefits, even as the pace of new filings slows. Over 15.9 million individuals were claiming benefits of some form as of the week ended May 8th. GDP was also released this morning showing a 6.4% annualized rate, unchanged from the estimate.
Market Commentary [5.26.21]
Stocks edged higher as Fed officials continue to stress that there are no imminent plans to change policy, easing concerns the central bank will dial back monetary support due to inflation. The Nasdaq led indexes advancing 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average improved over 0.2% on the 125th year anniversary of its debut. The Cboe Volatility Index, dropped to 18.41, its lowest level since the beginning of May. Focus will shift to Washington as CEOs from some of the country’s largest banks are set to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and the House Financial Services Committee Thursday.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields slowly give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.56%. Yields have side stepped since mid-March as inflationary signs have trickled through recent economic releases. The 10 Year Treasury has traded in a tight range of 1.53% to 1.75% on the outlying ends. There are no economic releases Today, however, the rest of the week is loaded with Initial jobless claims and continuing claims, GDP, personal income and consumer spending as well as core inflation. Investors are leery as the recent side stepped, stored energy could give us a pop with the right mix of economic data being released.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields slowly give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.56%. Yields have side stepped since mid-March as inflationary signs have trickled through recent economic releases. The 10 Year Treasury has traded in a tight range of 1.53% to 1.75% on the outlying ends. There are no economic releases Today, however, the rest of the week is loaded with Initial jobless claims and continuing claims, GDP, personal income and consumer spending as well as core inflation. Investors are leery as the recent side stepped, stored energy could give us a pop with the right mix of economic data being released.
Market Commentary [5.25.21]
Stocks opened higher and are on pace for a second day of gains following reassurances from Fed officials that the central bank will keep monetary stimulus in place. The S&P 500 opened 0.3% higher led by financials, consumer and industrial shares while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%, indicating technology stocks could continue to improve after leading broader markets higher on Monday. Moderna rose nearly 3% in premarket trading after the drugmaker announced that its Covid-19 vaccine is effective in children between 12 and 17 years of age. Overseas, the Shanghai Composite index improved 2.4%, its biggest one day move since October and highest closing level in three months. Chinese authorities have voiced concerns of rising prices for raw materials in recent days, easing investor concern on inflation.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.591%. Home prices in March saw the highest growth in over 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller S&P National Home Price Index. Prices in March were 13.2% higher than last year at the same time. This is the largest index gain since December 2005 and also one of the largest in the 30-yea history of the index. High demand, coupled with record-low supply continues to fuel prices higher. Cities with the largest gains are Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle. Phoenix has seen 20% gains year over year, San Diego reporting 19.1% and Seattle coming in at 18.3%.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up a little ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.591%. Home prices in March saw the highest growth in over 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller S&P National Home Price Index. Prices in March were 13.2% higher than last year at the same time. This is the largest index gain since December 2005 and also one of the largest in the 30-yea history of the index. High demand, coupled with record-low supply continues to fuel prices higher. Cities with the largest gains are Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle. Phoenix has seen 20% gains year over year, San Diego reporting 19.1% and Seattle coming in at 18.3%.
Market Commentary [5.24.21]
Stocks opened higher as inflation concerns appear to ease following recent weaker than expected economic reports, enhancing the outlook on the pace of the economic recovery. The Nasdaq advanced just below 1% as technology shares led gains while the S&P 500 and DJIA improved by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively. Bitcoin rose moderately after hitting multi-month lows on Sunday, as the cryptocurrency has lost over 40% of its value since its mid-April peak. Fed Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard is scheduled to speak about digital currencies at a virtual event organized by CoinDesk later this morning.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.61%. Mortgage rates are holding steady as treasury yields seem to have found recent pause. The average 30 Year Fxd rate was 3.000% and the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.29% as of May 20, 2021 in Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey. Shortages of housing inventory along with raw materials shortages for builders continue to drive up prices, making it increasingly difficult for homebuyers to find homes to purchase.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.61%. Mortgage rates are holding steady as treasury yields seem to have found recent pause. The average 30 Year Fxd rate was 3.000% and the average 15 Year Fxd was 2.29% as of May 20, 2021 in Freddie Mac’s Rate Survey. Shortages of housing inventory along with raw materials shortages for builders continue to drive up prices, making it increasingly difficult for homebuyers to find homes to purchase.
Market Commentary [5.21.21]
Stocks opened higher in anticipation of new manufacturing and services sector data that will be released later this morning. The DJIA led indexes, improving over 0.6% while the Nasdaq opened 0.5% higher, initiating its third consecutive day of gains and best streak since early April. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6% to its highest level in two weeks on energy, materials and industrial shares. Sentiment has swayed considerably in recent sessions, first on concerns of inflation rising on course with the economic rebound but then reversing as investors moved back to riskier assets such as growth stocks and cryptocurrencies following initial jobless claims falling below the pandemic low on Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. The May Markit PMI, which tracks economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors is due out at 9:45 am ET, followed by Existing Home Sales being released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting these releases to be on track with the last readings. Existing Home Sales has tapered over the past few months, but mainly from limited supply which has pushed prices exponentially higher in bidding wars. Despite slightly higher rates and prices, demand still seems strong as builders also look to keep up with the pace amidst raw material shortages.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.616%. The May Markit PMI, which tracks economic trends in manufacturing and service sectors is due out at 9:45 am ET, followed by Existing Home Sales being released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting these releases to be on track with the last readings. Existing Home Sales has tapered over the past few months, but mainly from limited supply which has pushed prices exponentially higher in bidding wars. Despite slightly higher rates and prices, demand still seems strong as builders also look to keep up with the pace amidst raw material shortages.
Market Commentary [5.20.21]
Stocks edged higher following jobless claims declining from the previous week to the lowest level since March last year. The Nasdaq led indexes, gaining 0.6% while the S&P 500 ticked up 0.4%. Fed Reserve minutes released from April indicated that some officials eluded to the potential start of talks to reduce the central bank’s bond buying program in a future meeting, briefly jolting stocks Wednesday afternoon. Bitcoin rose over 9%, passing $40,000 after a frenzied selloff in which cryptocurrencies plunged. Oil reversed an earlier gain, extending a three week low after Iran’s president announced that the outline of a deal to end sanctions on its oil had been reached.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.659%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new low of 444,000 for the week ended May 15. Georgia, Kentucky and Texas were states that saw the biggest declines. The labor market has been slow to recover with some industries hit harder than others. Claims still remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels indicating additional recovery is still required. Continuing claims came in at 3.75 million, up from the last reading of 3.64 million, and an additional sign that there could be a long tail to recovery.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields find new footing. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.659%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new low of 444,000 for the week ended May 15. Georgia, Kentucky and Texas were states that saw the biggest declines. The labor market has been slow to recover with some industries hit harder than others. Claims still remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels indicating additional recovery is still required. Continuing claims came in at 3.75 million, up from the last reading of 3.64 million, and an additional sign that there could be a long tail to recovery.
Market Commentary [5.19.21]
Stocks opened lower following a Bitcoin plunge with technology shares tumbling amid growing concerns of inflation and retreating commodity pricing. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes, dropping over 1.5% while all three posted over a point in losses as markets opened. Bitcoin dropped over 20% since 5 p.m. Tuesday to below $35,000, erasing all gains following Tesla’s announcement that it would buy and accept the digital asset as payment in February. In anticipation of the publishment of the Fed’s April meeting minutes, investors continue to speculate on whether the central bank will taper its bond purchases and raise interest rates.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields continue to inch higher. The U.W. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.635%. There is light economic news Today with the Fed releasing FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET and 2 scheduled speaking arrangements for Fed Presidents Bullard and Bostic. Since mid-March treasury yields have traded at a tighter range, with the 10-Year pivoting between a low of 1.52% and a high of 1.75%. Mixed economic releases seemed to have somewhat stalled upward trajectory for the time being. Mortgage rates have remained relatively low as well with the average 30 Yr fixed at 2.94% and the average 15 Yr fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s most recent rate survey.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields continue to inch higher. The U.W. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.635%. There is light economic news Today with the Fed releasing FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET and 2 scheduled speaking arrangements for Fed Presidents Bullard and Bostic. Since mid-March treasury yields have traded at a tighter range, with the 10-Year pivoting between a low of 1.52% and a high of 1.75%. Mixed economic releases seemed to have somewhat stalled upward trajectory for the time being. Mortgage rates have remained relatively low as well with the average 30 Yr fixed at 2.94% and the average 15 Yr fixed at 2.26% according to Freddie Mac’s most recent rate survey.
Market Commentary [5.18.21]
Stocks were little changed, indicating major indexes may be positioned for a muted rebound following recent choppy trading sessions on concerns of inflation. The Nasdaq led benchmarks, rising 0.3% and setting technology shares to mitigate some losses after a tumultuous four weeks, the index’s worst streak since August 2019. Minutes from the latest Fed meeting are due to be released on Wednesday and may offer investors insight on inflation pressure and a potential timeline for tapering stimulus.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. U.S. home builders started construction at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.57 million in April, a 9.5% decrease from the previous month. Compared to April 2020, starts are up 67%. The pace of permits also increased in March to a seasonally-adjusted pace of 1.76 million, up 0.3% from March and 61% higher than a year ago. Raw material shortages have plagued builders in recent months, which has also caused an increase in pricing of raw materials like lumber.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.634%. U.S. home builders started construction at a seasonally-adjusted rate of 1.57 million in April, a 9.5% decrease from the previous month. Compared to April 2020, starts are up 67%. The pace of permits also increased in March to a seasonally-adjusted pace of 1.76 million, up 0.3% from March and 61% higher than a year ago. Raw material shortages have plagued builders in recent months, which has also caused an increase in pricing of raw materials like lumber.
Market Commentary [5.17.21]
Stocks opened lower as earnings season winds down and focus remains on the longevity of a recent rise in inflation. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led indexes, slipping over 0.5% following Friday’s rebound in a week that saw the S&P 500 post its biggest decline since February. The Nasdaq has fallen for four straight weeks, its longest streak since 2019 as technology shares continue to experience vulnerability due to looming concerns of inflation. Overseas, Asian markets were mixed as the SSE advanced 0.8% after new data showed China’s industrial output jumped nearly 10% year over year in April while the Taiex fell 3% in addition to last week’s 8% pullback as authorities impose restrictive measures to combat Covid-19 spikes in parts of Taiwan.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields start the week slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.644%. There is light economic news Today with the Empire State manufacturing index that showed a slight decline since the previous reading, but still came in slightly better than expectations. NAHM home builder’s index will be released at 10 am ET as well, for another look at home building strength amidst raw material shortages, increased building cost, and limited housing inventory mixed with high demand. Economists are expecting the same index for May as seen in April.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields start the week slightly lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.644%. There is light economic news Today with the Empire State manufacturing index that showed a slight decline since the previous reading, but still came in slightly better than expectations. NAHM home builder’s index will be released at 10 am ET as well, for another look at home building strength amidst raw material shortages, increased building cost, and limited housing inventory mixed with high demand. Economists are expecting the same index for May as seen in April.
Market Commentary [5.14.21]
Stocks opened higher for a second consecutive day as energy and technology shares lead benchmarks. The Nasdaq led indexes, rising over 1% while the S&P 500 and DJIA improved 0.8% and 0.7% respectively following a turbulent week and the market’s biggest retreat in 11 weeks. As markets appear to rebalance and focus shifts to economic rebound, the narrative of moving to value stocks over growth stocks weighs on investor sentiment as speculation continues to loom over interest rates and the Fed’s current policy. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe improved 0.8% and Asian markets rallied, including Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 2.3% and China’s Shanghai Composite rising 1.8%.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields pulled back on weak retail sales data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.645%. Following Wednesday’s higher than expected inflation reading, Retail Sales came in flat this morning, as stimulus money spending fades. Economists are still predicting strong growth ahead as savings rates continue to increase and the economy continues to reopen across the country.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields pulled back on weak retail sales data. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.645%. Following Wednesday’s higher than expected inflation reading, Retail Sales came in flat this morning, as stimulus money spending fades. Economists are still predicting strong growth ahead as savings rates continue to increase and the economy continues to reopen across the country.
Market Commentary [5.13.21]
Stocks opened higher following a three-day slide as producer prices increased in April and jobless claims declined. The tech heavy Nasdaq led indexes gaining over a point while the S&P 500 improved by over 0.5% after its biggest one-day drop since February. Following recent surging CPI data, investors view the broader markets are hedging against the possibility it persists, which could force the Fed to revise its current policy despite sentiment that the April was a one-off reopening burst. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe fell 0.5% on disappointing earnings reports.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.69%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new post pandemic low of 473,000 last week. This was also below expectations of 490,000. Continuing claims have remained steady the past few weeks though. Continuing claims came in at 3.655 million vs 3.65 million expected. Producer pricing increased 6.2% in April compared to last year, the largest spike seen in tracking PPI since 2010. A sharp jump in steel mill products contributed to the leap in producer prices in April. Prices for beef, veal, pork, residential natural gas, plastic resins and materials and dairy products also moved higher last month.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.69%. Initial jobless claims fell to a new post pandemic low of 473,000 last week. This was also below expectations of 490,000. Continuing claims have remained steady the past few weeks though. Continuing claims came in at 3.655 million vs 3.65 million expected. Producer pricing increased 6.2% in April compared to last year, the largest spike seen in tracking PPI since 2010. A sharp jump in steel mill products contributed to the leap in producer prices in April. Prices for beef, veal, pork, residential natural gas, plastic resins and materials and dairy products also moved higher last month.
Market Commentary [5.12.21]
Stocks opened lower following fresh data that consumer prices increased at a higher rate than expected in April. The DJIA extended losses after its biggest drop since February on Tuesday while the S&P 500 posted its two largest declines since the beginning of March and the Nasdaq slipped 1.3%. Concerns of inflation continue to take the bulk of investor attention as hiring difficulties in addition to rising commodity prices and supply chain blockages stoke speculation that the Fed may have to revise their stance on lower rates earlier than planned. Overseas, markets were mixed as the Stoxx Europe 600 ticked up following its biggest decline since December while Taiwan’s Taiex fell over 4% after the government tightened coronavirus restrictions.
Bond pricing worsened into Yesterday’s close as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.615%. April’s consumer price index, expected to have increased 0.2% over the previous month, equating to a 3.6% increase over the past year was exceeded by a 4.2% increase in the latest report. A move this large has not been seen since 2011. CPI excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.3% with a 2.3% increase since last year. Rising inflation is of concern for investors, however the Federal Reserve has reiterated that any increase in prices should be transitory.
Bond pricing worsened into Yesterday’s close as treasury yields inched higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.615%. April’s consumer price index, expected to have increased 0.2% over the previous month, equating to a 3.6% increase over the past year was exceeded by a 4.2% increase in the latest report. A move this large has not been seen since 2011. CPI excluding food and energy is expected to rise 0.3% with a 2.3% increase since last year. Rising inflation is of concern for investors, however the Federal Reserve has reiterated that any increase in prices should be transitory.
Market Commentary [5.11.21]
Stocks opened lower following a selloff in technology stocks amid increasing concerns on inflation. The three major indexes fell in early trading, led by the Nasdaq dropping over 2%. Supply chain bottlenecks and the recent surge in commodity prices added to investor sentiment that a steep climb of inflation could be likely in the coming months. Growth stocks that led the market’s rally last spring are now being evaluated for their high valuations, leading to the consideration of a broader selloff. There is speculation that the Fed may look into paring back its easy money policies sooner than expected, however policy makers stressed that the central bank will not be swayed by on-off price increases driven by economic reopening.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat, awaiting Job Opening data to be released at 9 am ET. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently 1.607%. Economists are expecting 7.5 million job openings for March. The previous reading came in at 7.4 million. Job openings have increased over the past few months, with restrictions going away. Food Services, Arts and Entertainment, as well as Recreation have all seen gains with lifted restrictions. Many are now concerned that ongoing stimulus and unemployment benefits may keep many from re-joining the workforce, as recent unemployment numbers have slowed and been relatively flat while job openings continue to rise.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat, awaiting Job Opening data to be released at 9 am ET. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury Yield is currently 1.607%. Economists are expecting 7.5 million job openings for March. The previous reading came in at 7.4 million. Job openings have increased over the past few months, with restrictions going away. Food Services, Arts and Entertainment, as well as Recreation have all seen gains with lifted restrictions. Many are now concerned that ongoing stimulus and unemployment benefits may keep many from re-joining the workforce, as recent unemployment numbers have slowed and been relatively flat while job openings continue to rise.
Market Commentary [5.10.21]
Stocks opened mixed following another record close for the S&P 500 as surging commodity prices lead to concerns of inflation impacting economic rebound and the recent stock rally. The Nasdaq started 0.5% lower as investors are still hesitant to put more into expensive tech shares with the fear that higher inflation would erode the value of their future earnings. Copper hit a new record, rising just under 2% and iron ore futures jumped more than 10% as a demand for metals used in manufacturing and construction increased, bolstering prices. The U.S. CPI report on Wednesday is forecast to indicate that price pressures increased in April.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady this morning amidst no economic releases. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.575%. Investor focus this week will likely turn to March job openings data out tomorrow and inflation data, due out Wednesday. Recent jobs data showed much fewer job adds than expected. Rates are holding steady as well. According to the latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey, the average 30 Year Fxd rate was 2.96%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate was 2.3% as of 5/6/21. Mixed economic and jobs data has kept treasury yields in check and rates relatively flat the past week.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding steady this morning amidst no economic releases. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.575%. Investor focus this week will likely turn to March job openings data out tomorrow and inflation data, due out Wednesday. Recent jobs data showed much fewer job adds than expected. Rates are holding steady as well. According to the latest Freddie Mac Rate Survey, the average 30 Year Fxd rate was 2.96%, while the average 15 Year Fxd rate was 2.3% as of 5/6/21. Mixed economic and jobs data has kept treasury yields in check and rates relatively flat the past week.
Market Commentary [5.07.21]
Stocks opened mixed on weaker than expected jobs data, easing concerns of an inflation spike and cutback on stimulus. The Nasdaq led indexes, advancing 0.5% as investors move back to major technology companies flush with cash. Despite the surprising jobs data, investor sentiment remains that the FED will continue its pledge to refrain from tightening monetary policy until the labor market is recovered, suggesting a potential second week of muted gains.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat ahead of market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.57%. Last month’s unemployment report showed a drop to 6%. Economists are expecting another slight drop to 5.8% with this morning’s release. The labor market has struggled to recover, mainly amongst service based jobs that were compromised during partial shutdowns that only recently have been lifted in some states. Additional stimulus, increased demand for services, and re-openings have fueled economic growth in the past couple of months which in turn has supported job growth in some of the hardest hit sectors.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat ahead of market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.57%. Last month’s unemployment report showed a drop to 6%. Economists are expecting another slight drop to 5.8% with this morning’s release. The labor market has struggled to recover, mainly amongst service based jobs that were compromised during partial shutdowns that only recently have been lifted in some states. Additional stimulus, increased demand for services, and re-openings have fueled economic growth in the past couple of months which in turn has supported job growth in some of the hardest hit sectors.
Market Commentary [5.06.21]
Stocks opened mixed following improved labor data as investors continue to assess quarterly earnings reports. The S&P 500 was relatively flat as over 80% of its listed 381 companies that have reported earnings have exceed expectations. The DJIA ticked up in early trading following its 22nd record close for 2021. There is some concern among investors that although companies are surpassing projections, the response in their share prices may not correlate and coupled with volatility in the tech sector, could indicate the slowing of the rally that began in March.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. Jobless claims fell to 498,000 for the week ended March 1, below estimates of 527,000. While there is still a little ways to go for the jobs market, improvement has been seen in recent weeks as we move toward pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims remain at 3.69 million, a bit above the last reading of 3.65 million. Productivity increased 5.4% for Q1 while output and hours worked both increased 8.4% and 2.9% respectively. Overall, labor costs declined in Q1, the net effect of a 5.1% increase in hourly compensation and a 5.4% increase in productivity.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. Jobless claims fell to 498,000 for the week ended March 1, below estimates of 527,000. While there is still a little ways to go for the jobs market, improvement has been seen in recent weeks as we move toward pre-pandemic levels. Continuing claims remain at 3.69 million, a bit above the last reading of 3.65 million. Productivity increased 5.4% for Q1 while output and hours worked both increased 8.4% and 2.9% respectively. Overall, labor costs declined in Q1, the net effect of a 5.1% increase in hourly compensation and a 5.4% increase in productivity.
Market Commentary [5.05.21]
Stocks opened higher following a rebound in technology shares as concerns of inflation potentially eased after markets Tuesday. The S&P 500 improved 0.4% while the Nasdaq rose 0.6% after yesterday’s decline. Treasury Secretary Yellen made clarifications on her earlier comments that the Fed may need to consider interest rate hikes by stating that it was not her prediction or recommendation and that inflation is not likely to be a problem, though the Fed could handle the issue should it arise. Analysts are looking towards the second half of the year for inflation concerns with the sentiment that stocks may continue to rally so long as investors agree with the Fed’s view that recent increasing inflation will not exceed control.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.601%. Private sector employment saw an increase of 742,000 jobs in April according to the latest ADP Employment Report. The gains were spread evenly across small, medium and large businesses. Service businesses made up the bulk of the gains with over 636,000 job adds, 237,000 of which were leisure and hospitality based as corona based restrictions continue to lift and demand has increased in those areas. This is the strongest reading since September 2020, with job gains totaling more than 1.3 million over the last two months. There is still a ways to go to be back to pre-pandemic job levels, but the last two months have improved the outlook.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.601%. Private sector employment saw an increase of 742,000 jobs in April according to the latest ADP Employment Report. The gains were spread evenly across small, medium and large businesses. Service businesses made up the bulk of the gains with over 636,000 job adds, 237,000 of which were leisure and hospitality based as corona based restrictions continue to lift and demand has increased in those areas. This is the strongest reading since September 2020, with job gains totaling more than 1.3 million over the last two months. There is still a ways to go to be back to pre-pandemic job levels, but the last two months have improved the outlook.
Market Commentary [5.04.21]
Stocks opened lower following investors flooding into shares of economically sensitive companies and pulling back from technology, creating a divergence in indexes at the start of May. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 1.0% while the S&P 500 slid 0.5% in early trading. Energy and banking stocks have led the shift away from tech as investors position to bet on companies most likely to benefit from the economic recovery. Focus has shifted increasing towards the Fed’s next addressment of its monetary policy given that the market has already priced in a strong recovery and earnings season has exceeded expectations to this point.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $74.4 billion as exports rose 6.6%. Fresh stimulus fueled increased consumer demand for U.S. imported goods to a record high in March. Amongst the list of popular items were toys, furniture, cellphones, and automobiles. Total imports totaled $274.5 billion for the month, outpacing a prior record of $266.7 billion in October of 2018.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $74.4 billion as exports rose 6.6%. Fresh stimulus fueled increased consumer demand for U.S. imported goods to a record high in March. Amongst the list of popular items were toys, furniture, cellphones, and automobiles. Total imports totaled $274.5 billion for the month, outpacing a prior record of $266.7 billion in October of 2018.
Market Commentary [5.03.21]
Stocks opened higher in anticipation of U.S. manufacturing data releases later this morning. The DJIA led indexes, climbing 0.6% while the S&P 500 advanced 0.3% following its best month since November. More than half of the companies listed on the S&P 500 have reported earnings with nearly 90% exceeding projections. Moderna climbed in early trading after the drugmaker committed to supplying up to 500 million doses of its Covid-19 shot in a global vaccination effort. Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak in a virtual conference later today with investors likely to parse details looking for insights on the recovering economy and inflation.
Bond pricing is losing a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.619%. Small business owners are feeling more confident about recovery according to recent economic surveys. Friday’s releases also fueled confidence as personal income and spending rose, which has caused a rise in some prices as well. Today’s economic releases include manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing and construction spending along with motor vehicle sales. The manufacturing industry has lagged somewhat early in the recovery as supply of needed materials have been scarce against pent up demand fueled by stimulus. Mortgage rates are holding somewhat steady after rising from early February. The average 30 YR Fixed is at 2.98% and the average 15 YR Fixed is at 2.31% according to Freddie Mac’s Survey as of 4/29.
Bond pricing is losing a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.619%. Small business owners are feeling more confident about recovery according to recent economic surveys. Friday’s releases also fueled confidence as personal income and spending rose, which has caused a rise in some prices as well. Today’s economic releases include manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing and construction spending along with motor vehicle sales. The manufacturing industry has lagged somewhat early in the recovery as supply of needed materials have been scarce against pent up demand fueled by stimulus. Mortgage rates are holding somewhat steady after rising from early February. The average 30 YR Fixed is at 2.98% and the average 15 YR Fixed is at 2.31% according to Freddie Mac’s Survey as of 4/29.
Market Commentary [4.30.21]
Stocks opened lower as increasing Covid-19 infections in parts of the world stoke concerns on supply chains and potential inflation. The S&P 500 led indexes at 0.6% lower but is still on track to post its best month since November after closing at another record on Thursday. New variants in Brazil and India are threatening global travel, impacting supply chains and inhibiting the pace of recovery that fueled the investor optimism that pushed indexes higher earlier in the week. New economic data in China showed that manufacturing fell short of expectations in April due to supply shortages, logistics jams and greater delivery costs. Overseas, most indexes in Asia declined by the close of trading, led by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping nearly 2%.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.637%. U.S. Household income rose a whopping 21% in March with stimulus anticipated to help a swift recovery. The personal savings rate rose to 27.6% from 13.9% a month earlier. Consumer spending also increased for March by 8.1%, with households spending on big ticket items.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are mixed this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.637%. U.S. Household income rose a whopping 21% in March with stimulus anticipated to help a swift recovery. The personal savings rate rose to 27.6% from 13.9% a month earlier. Consumer spending also increased for March by 8.1%, with households spending on big ticket items.
Market Commentary [4.29.21]
Stocks opened higher on positive commentary from Chairman Powell following the Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday. The Nasdaq led indexes climbing nearly 1%, suggesting major tech stocks could drive gains. Mr. Powell reiterated the central bank’s stance on continuing to support the economy while noting improvements on growth and the labor market. He also addressed interest rates, stating that the Fed will hold rates steady until the labor market returns to full strength and inflation reaches an average of 2%. Amazon and Twitter are expected to post quarterly reports after markets close, both stocks were up in premarket trading.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields rise on economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.679%. Another 553,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, a slight decline from the prior week, but above expectations of 540,000. Continuing claims are at 3.66 million, above the 3.59 million expected. New jobless claims have now held below 600,000 for three straight weeks and are at the lows since the pandemic dealt a major blow to the U.S. economy. First quarter GDP for 2021 increased at a 6.4% rate, the second fastest pace growth since the second quarter of 2003. Economic activity soared at the start of 2021 as widespread vaccinations and more stimulus helped get the U.S. closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields rise on economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.679%. Another 553,000 Americans filed for jobless claims last week, a slight decline from the prior week, but above expectations of 540,000. Continuing claims are at 3.66 million, above the 3.59 million expected. New jobless claims have now held below 600,000 for three straight weeks and are at the lows since the pandemic dealt a major blow to the U.S. economy. First quarter GDP for 2021 increased at a 6.4% rate, the second fastest pace growth since the second quarter of 2003. Economic activity soared at the start of 2021 as widespread vaccinations and more stimulus helped get the U.S. closer to pre-pandemic levels.
Market Commentary [4.28.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors prepare for the final day of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and additional corporate earnings reports. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates and bond purchases unchanged, the focus will be on Chairman Powell’s comments as investors look for indications that discussions on monetary policy will shift in the coming months. President Biden is expected to outline some of his plans to raise taxes on the highest earning Americans, part of a $1.8 trillion proposal in a speech later this evening. Major tech companies including Qualcomm and Apple are set to post quarterly reports today after markets close.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.631%. The international trade deficit grew to $90.6 billion in March, up $3.5 billion from February. Exports of goods for March were $142 billion, an increase of $11.4 billion from February. Imports rose to $232.6 billion, $14.9 billion more than February. Rounds of stimulus have fueled demand for imports in the U.S., while other countries have seen reduced demand for U.S. goods throughout the pandemic.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.631%. The international trade deficit grew to $90.6 billion in March, up $3.5 billion from February. Exports of goods for March were $142 billion, an increase of $11.4 billion from February. Imports rose to $232.6 billion, $14.9 billion more than February. Rounds of stimulus have fueled demand for imports in the U.S., while other countries have seen reduced demand for U.S. goods throughout the pandemic.
Market Commentary [4.27.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors continue to assess earnings reports as officials convene for the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. The S&P 500 opened relatively flat following its 24th record high of the year as more than 85% of companies listed on the index that released reports have exceeded analysts’ expectations. The Nasdaq ticked higher after also hitting a record high yesterday, its first since February as some of the biggest technology companies publish quarterly earnings. Microsoft and Alphabet are due to release earnings reports later today after market close.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.584%. February saw the biggest gain in home prices in 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller Home price index report. Home prices rose nationally 12% year over year, up from 11.2% in January. Cities with the largest annualized gains continue to be Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle with gains of 17.4%, 17%, and 15.4% respectively. Even though rates moved higher as well, starting February with 30 year rates near 2.79% and ending the month at 3.27%, demand has remained incredibly strong amidst limited inventory. Most homes are selling in less than half the time they did just a year ago.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.584%. February saw the biggest gain in home prices in 15 years according to the latest Case-Shiller Home price index report. Home prices rose nationally 12% year over year, up from 11.2% in January. Cities with the largest annualized gains continue to be Phoenix, San Diego and Seattle with gains of 17.4%, 17%, and 15.4% respectively. Even though rates moved higher as well, starting February with 30 year rates near 2.79% and ending the month at 3.27%, demand has remained incredibly strong amidst limited inventory. Most homes are selling in less than half the time they did just a year ago.
Market Commentary [4.26.21]
Stocks opened higher as corporate earnings season picks up steam with several blue-chip companies set to report results and address valuations this week. The three major indexes ticked higher in early trading, led by the S&P 500 after its first weekly decline since mid-March. Technology shares will be in focus as rich valuations are questioned and projected against elevated Treasury yields. Investors will be parsing for clues on potential changes in tone or outlook as the Federal Reserve initiated its policy meeting this week following releases of strong economic data.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasuries regain upward ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.577%. Durable goods rebounded last month, but supply shortages are still preventing growth. Durable goods saw a 0.5% increase with consumers buying up electronics, appliances, and cars amongst other goods.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasuries regain upward ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.577%. Durable goods rebounded last month, but supply shortages are still preventing growth. Durable goods saw a 0.5% increase with consumers buying up electronics, appliances, and cars amongst other goods.
Market Commentary [4.23.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors await preliminary results from April surveys of U.S. purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services industries later this morning. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% after a nearly 1% drop Thursday following reports on President Biden’s potential higher capital gains taxes. Its been a choppy week for stocks as sentiment has wavered between concerns of rising Covid-19 cases in parts of the world and optimistic economic data including declining weekly jobless claims. Bitcoin fell over 10% and traded below $50,000, continuing its decline since last weekend.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Yields moved slightly this morning as Biden focuses on a new tax plan that will raise taxes on millionaire investors to fund education and other spending priorities. Of note in the plan, a hike from 20% to 39.6% on capital gains for Americans earning more than $1 million. New Home Sales is expected to be released this morning at 10 am ET. Severely limited supply coupled with an uptick in mortgage rates have had influence over the past month as buyers weigh their options. Still, millennials appear to be aging into homeownership in a demographic fueled shift away from renting. Recent rate moves have declined affordability by more than $13,000 in house-buying power. Economists are expecting a rebound to 888,000 from February’s low of 775,000.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain flat this morning on limited economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Yields moved slightly this morning as Biden focuses on a new tax plan that will raise taxes on millionaire investors to fund education and other spending priorities. Of note in the plan, a hike from 20% to 39.6% on capital gains for Americans earning more than $1 million. New Home Sales is expected to be released this morning at 10 am ET. Severely limited supply coupled with an uptick in mortgage rates have had influence over the past month as buyers weigh their options. Still, millennials appear to be aging into homeownership in a demographic fueled shift away from renting. Recent rate moves have declined affordability by more than $13,000 in house-buying power. Economists are expecting a rebound to 888,000 from February’s low of 775,000.
Market Commentary [4.22.21]
Stocks opened lower following a bounce back Wednesday, erasing most or their losses from earlier in the week. The S&P 500 edged lower in early trading, led by raw material and energy while the DJIA and Nasdaq each slipped 0.2%. Concerns of a coronavirus resurgence has weighted on investor outlook of plans to reopen economic activity as India reported the world’s largest single day rise with over 314,000 new cases. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 improved 0.4% on tech and utilities while Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.4% led by pharmaceuticals and the Shanghai Composite Index edged 0.2% lower.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.568%. Another 547,000 Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, an improvement coming in below expectations of 603,000. Continuing claims came in at 3.674 million, slightly above the 3.65 million expected. Claims have stepped down from the shutdown highs of 6.1 million last spring. Even though there has been improvement, the labor market has been choppy and the downtrend has come with some bumps higher along the way. Mainly due to the start-stop nature of re-opening across all states. Still the ongoing health risks for some professions make things more difficult to go back to work, primarily in contact-intensive industries.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.568%. Another 547,000 Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, an improvement coming in below expectations of 603,000. Continuing claims came in at 3.674 million, slightly above the 3.65 million expected. Claims have stepped down from the shutdown highs of 6.1 million last spring. Even though there has been improvement, the labor market has been choppy and the downtrend has come with some bumps higher along the way. Mainly due to the start-stop nature of re-opening across all states. Still the ongoing health risks for some professions make things more difficult to go back to work, primarily in contact-intensive industries.
Market Commentary [4.21.21]
Stocks edged lower extending their decline into a third day amid international Covid-19 concerns and disappointing earnings reports. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and is on track for its worst losing streak in nearly two months. The Nasdaq fell 0.3% in early trading after exceeding the 14,000 mark last week as two sell signals were triggered on its GTI Global Strength Indicator in less than a week. The WHO reported that new waves of Covid-19 cases are rising in all regions except Europe, particularly in India and Japan. Netflix fell over 8% as subscriber growth for the first quarter was weaker than expected, Verizon Communications reported losing regular wireless subscribers for the first time in a year.
Bond pricing is improved this morning and treasury yields are flat on no economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.564%. The 10 Year has given up yield over the past week or more and is now just 3 basis points from last week’s low of 1.53%. Still, the trend remains slightly higher on a medium and longer term time frame for treasury yields. For months, there has been a shift toward equities as bond yields remained historically low. There is roughly $59 billion flowing into the bond market year to date. Simultaneously, there is roughly $240 billion flowing into equities. Even though there is a little more room to run in the short run, yields seem to be nearing resistance, with many believing that inflation will remain in check.
Bond pricing is improved this morning and treasury yields are flat on no economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.564%. The 10 Year has given up yield over the past week or more and is now just 3 basis points from last week’s low of 1.53%. Still, the trend remains slightly higher on a medium and longer term time frame for treasury yields. For months, there has been a shift toward equities as bond yields remained historically low. There is roughly $59 billion flowing into the bond market year to date. Simultaneously, there is roughly $240 billion flowing into equities. Even though there is a little more room to run in the short run, yields seem to be nearing resistance, with many believing that inflation will remain in check.
Market Commentary [4.20.21]
Stocks opened lower amid continued releases of corporate earnings as rising international Covid-19 cases temper optimism. The three major indexes slid in early trading, signaling a potential second day of losses led by the DJIA retreating 0.3%. The emphasis of earnings season has been to gauge the outlook for the rest of the year and determine if high valuations on stocks are justified. With share prices near or close to record highs, aided by recent strong economic data, the concern is that expectations may be too high and difficult to meet. Overseas, the Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.2% and markets in Asia were mixed.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields await for new directional course. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.605%. According to the MBA, loans in forbearance total roughly 4.6% of servicer’s portfolios, approximately 2.3 million homeowners. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance is roughly 2.5%, while Ginnie Mae has roughly 6.3% of its share in forbearance, with the vast majority in what’s considered an extension phase. All said, forbearance has decreased from the highs seen shortly after the pandemic as noted in the chart below.
Bond pricing is slightly improved as treasury yields await for new directional course. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.605%. According to the MBA, loans in forbearance total roughly 4.6% of servicer’s portfolios, approximately 2.3 million homeowners. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance is roughly 2.5%, while Ginnie Mae has roughly 6.3% of its share in forbearance, with the vast majority in what’s considered an extension phase. All said, forbearance has decreased from the highs seen shortly after the pandemic as noted in the chart below.
Market Commentary [4.19.21]
Stocks edged lower following indexes closing at all-time highs on Friday as investors continue to assess corporate earnings. The S&P 500 and DJIA each slipped 0.2% in early trading while the Nasdaq started 0.5% lower. Bitcoin improved over 4%, regaining some ground after a 12% drop over the weekend. On Friday, Turkey’s central bank announced that it would ban the use of cryptocurrencies as a form of payment. In Asia, most benchmarks improved by the end of the day with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing 1.5% for its best day in over three weeks.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. There are no scheduled economic releases until Thursday of this week. Thursday and Friday have initial jobless claims and New Home Sales respectively. Rates fell slightly in Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey from 4/15/21. The average 30 Year Fixed was 3.04%, down from the prior week’s reading of 3.18%, while the average 15 Year Fixed was 2.35%, down from 2.42% the prior week.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. There are no scheduled economic releases until Thursday of this week. Thursday and Friday have initial jobless claims and New Home Sales respectively. Rates fell slightly in Freddie Mac’s latest Rate Survey from 4/15/21. The average 30 Year Fixed was 3.04%, down from the prior week’s reading of 3.18%, while the average 15 Year Fixed was 2.35%, down from 2.42% the prior week.
Market Commentary [4.16.21]
Stocks opened higher extending record highs amid continued strong blue-chip earnings reports. The S&P 500 improved 0.4% following another all-time closing high while the DJIA rose 0.5% after also hitting a record high on Thursday. Reports from banks and financial companies in addition to strong economic data has stoked optimism on the recovery as more companies release their earnings. Chinese shares outperformed in Asia with reports indicating an economic surge of over 18% in the first quarter. The Stoxx Europe 600 improved, led by banks and automotive companies and is on track for a seventh consecutive week of advances.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up some ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.592%. New housing starts surged 19.4% coming in at 1.739 million in March, above the forecasted 1.61 million. Soaring lumber prices and other supply constraints could limit builder capacity to boost production and ease the current shortage of homes. Ultimately this could lead to a slow down in housing market momentum if the supply of raw materials continues to dwindle. Building permits also showed growth of 2.7% which was above forecast as many continue to seek new housing in a very limited supply market.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up some ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.592%. New housing starts surged 19.4% coming in at 1.739 million in March, above the forecasted 1.61 million. Soaring lumber prices and other supply constraints could limit builder capacity to boost production and ease the current shortage of homes. Ultimately this could lead to a slow down in housing market momentum if the supply of raw materials continues to dwindle. Building permits also showed growth of 2.7% which was above forecast as many continue to seek new housing in a very limited supply market.
Market Commentary [4.15.21]
Stocks opened higher on strong corporate earnings reports as new labor and economic data exceed expectations. The three major indexes were up in early trading, led by the tech heavy Nasdaq gaining around 1%. The anticipated economic recovery has led investors to focus on shares in energy, travel and banks that are sensitive to a rebound, contributing to benchmarks reaching record highs in 2021. Coinbase rose over 6% in premarket trading following a high of $429 during its debut on Wednesday before closing at $328
Bond pricing and treasury yields re relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.611%. Initial jobless claims fell to a fresh pre-pandemic low of 576,000 last week. This was well below the expected 700,000 claims. Conituing claims rose slightly from the prior week, from 3.727 million to 3.731 million. Retail sales posted favorable numbers this morning, as consumers use stimulus money to splurge. Retail sales jumped 9.8% higher in March, with heavy spending in bars and restaurants as additional corona measures have been lifted. Sporting goods, clothing and food were also at the top of the chart for spending.
Bond pricing and treasury yields re relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.611%. Initial jobless claims fell to a fresh pre-pandemic low of 576,000 last week. This was well below the expected 700,000 claims. Conituing claims rose slightly from the prior week, from 3.727 million to 3.731 million. Retail sales posted favorable numbers this morning, as consumers use stimulus money to splurge. Retail sales jumped 9.8% higher in March, with heavy spending in bars and restaurants as additional corona measures have been lifted. Sporting goods, clothing and food were also at the top of the chart for spending.
Market Commentary [4.14.21]
Stocks edged higher on positive quarterly profit reports of the biggest banks ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s addressment of the economy later today. The S&P 500 opened relatively flat following its 21st record close of 2021 while the DJIA and Nasdaq opened marginally higher. To this point, Fed officials have maintained that they will keep loose monetary policy in place for the foreseeable future with the expectation that any sharp uptick in inflation would be temporary. Prices of cryptocurrencies surged ahead of the public listing of Coinbase Global, led by Bitcoin hitting an all-time high and exceeding $64,000.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields slide. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.632%. According to the government, import prices jumped 1.2% in March, adding to an upward inflation picture. The reading came in higher than expected and on a yearly basis, the index has risen 6.9%. Commodities like gas and oil continue to be at the forefront of demand and price increases. There are several Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day Today. The Fed has remained steady in letting inflation run its course, even if a little higher than expected as long as it takes the jobs market back to full employment.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields slide. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.632%. According to the government, import prices jumped 1.2% in March, adding to an upward inflation picture. The reading came in higher than expected and on a yearly basis, the index has risen 6.9%. Commodities like gas and oil continue to be at the forefront of demand and price increases. There are several Fed speakers scheduled throughout the day Today. The Fed has remained steady in letting inflation run its course, even if a little higher than expected as long as it takes the jobs market back to full employment.
Market Commentary [4.13.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a recommended pause of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as the FDA and CDC review new data involving six reported cases of blood clotting. The S&P 500 was little changed while the DJIA slipped 0.2% and the tech heavy Nasdaq improved 0.4%. Investors continue to assess projections of the economic recovery and potential rise in inflation considering that earlier inflation expectations led to a rise in bond yields and rush out of technology shares last month. Bitcoin rose over 4%, exceeding $63,000 as Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange plans to go public on Wednesday.
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields remain stagnant. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Consumer prices surged in March for the fourth month in a row, jumping 0.6%. The rise was mainly due to the rising cost of oil. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months has shot up to 2.6% marking the highest level since the fall of 2018. The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months. Economists are pointing to massive federal stimulus and a rapid decline in corona cases as primary components boosting demand for a wide array of goods and services while key materials are still in short supply. Gasoline rose 9.1% just last month, accounting for almost half the increase in the cost of living
Bond pricing is relatively flat this morning as treasury yields remain stagnant. The U.S 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Consumer prices surged in March for the fourth month in a row, jumping 0.6%. The rise was mainly due to the rising cost of oil. The rate of inflation over the past 12 months has shot up to 2.6% marking the highest level since the fall of 2018. The yearly rate of inflation is widely expected to surge in the next few months. Economists are pointing to massive federal stimulus and a rapid decline in corona cases as primary components boosting demand for a wide array of goods and services while key materials are still in short supply. Gasoline rose 9.1% just last month, accounting for almost half the increase in the cost of living
Market Commentary [4.12.21]
Stocks edged lower following another record closing for benchmarks on Friday as investors prepare for a week of corporate earnings. The S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower after its 20th record high closing of 2021 while the DJIA and Nasdaq each slipped 0.3%. Shares in tech giants have regained position over the past month, pushing indexes higher as investor concern has been subdued on owning shares sensitive to increasing interest rates given the recent retreat in yields on government bonds. Nuance Communications jumped nearly 20% ahead of the opening bell amid reports that Microsoft is in advanced talks to buy the artificial intelligence company for around $16 billion.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.671%. Services surged in March according to the U.S. ISM Services index. The survey jumped to 63.7% hitting the highest level on record as governments lifted business restrictions and rising vaccinations gave Americans increased confidence to go out and shop, travel or take vacations. Readings above 50% signals that businesses are expanding, with readings above 55% showing signs of broad strength. On the flip side, U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.8% in February, marking the first decline since the shutdown. Weakness was primarily blamed on February’s cold weather followed by lack of key supplies. The factory sector is expected to rebound quickly.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields regain ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.671%. Services surged in March according to the U.S. ISM Services index. The survey jumped to 63.7% hitting the highest level on record as governments lifted business restrictions and rising vaccinations gave Americans increased confidence to go out and shop, travel or take vacations. Readings above 50% signals that businesses are expanding, with readings above 55% showing signs of broad strength. On the flip side, U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.8% in February, marking the first decline since the shutdown. Weakness was primarily blamed on February’s cold weather followed by lack of key supplies. The factory sector is expected to rebound quickly.
Market Commentary [4.09.21]
Stocks opened mixed following the S&P 500 closing at all-time high on Thursday, the 19th time in 2021. The benchmark is on pace to realize gains for a third straight week, its best streak since last October. The DJIA ticked up 0.2% in early trading while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% as large tech lost some of the week’s gains. Investors are preparing for company quarterly earnings reports to be released starting next week as a gauge of the course of the market in coming weeks.
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.685%. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, vs an expected 0.5% gain. The majority of price increase came from a jump in prices for final demand goods. Powell reiterated Thursday, “The recovery remains uneven and incomplete.” as the Federal Reserve has loosened its grip on inflation in hopes of achieving a level of full employment. The Fed feels that the inflation we are seeing is likely temporary as states continue to reopen and things rebound from the pandemic, however, if it lasts past summer the Fed could become “more concerned.”
Bond pricing is worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.685%. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose 1.0% in March, vs an expected 0.5% gain. The majority of price increase came from a jump in prices for final demand goods. Powell reiterated Thursday, “The recovery remains uneven and incomplete.” as the Federal Reserve has loosened its grip on inflation in hopes of achieving a level of full employment. The Fed feels that the inflation we are seeing is likely temporary as states continue to reopen and things rebound from the pandemic, however, if it lasts past summer the Fed could become “more concerned.”
Market Commentary [4.08.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting minutes. The S&P 500 improved 0.3% after closing at another record high and is up over 2.5% for the month. The tech heavy Nasdaq advanced over 0.8% as concerns begin to ease on high valuations of growth stocks. The cooling off in bond yields has led to a resurgence is the largest tech companies, climbing over 4% following a tumultuous March.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields teeter lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.649%. U.S. jobless claims totaled 744,000, higher than the estimated 694,000. Unemployment still remains will above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Continuing claims did drop marginally to 3.73 million, the lowest level seen since March 21, 2020 just after the pandemic hit and companies instituted layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Fed President and Chair James Bullard and Jerome Powell both have speeches later Today, with Powell highlighting the global economy.
Bond pricing is slightly better this morning as treasury yields teeter lower. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.649%. U.S. jobless claims totaled 744,000, higher than the estimated 694,000. Unemployment still remains will above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Continuing claims did drop marginally to 3.73 million, the lowest level seen since March 21, 2020 just after the pandemic hit and companies instituted layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Fed President and Chair James Bullard and Jerome Powell both have speeches later Today, with Powell highlighting the global economy.
Market Commentary [4.07.21]
Stocks opened mixed as investors anticipate the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting minutes later today. The S&P 500 and DJIA edged higher while the Nasdaq dropped 0.1% after a slight pull back on Tuesday following record highs earlier in the week. As sentiment continues to improve, investors are looking toward travel and leisure companies to get a boost as the economy returns to normalcy. Economically sensitive sectors such as banks and energy are also the focus of investors as many see them to stand to benefit the most from reopening.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.665%. The U.S trade deficit has jumped 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion as Americans spend on imports. The deficit was expected to come in at $70.5 billion. Stimulus packages have put Americans in a position to spend more than citizens of other countries, resulting in Americans snapping up imported goods at a faster pace, while overseas purchases of U.S. products lag well behind. The level of imports is now 5% higher than a year ago, with imported oil and industrial supplies the biggest commodities. FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET Today with several Fed speakers taking the podium throughout the day as well.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.665%. The U.S trade deficit has jumped 4.8% to a record $71.1 billion as Americans spend on imports. The deficit was expected to come in at $70.5 billion. Stimulus packages have put Americans in a position to spend more than citizens of other countries, resulting in Americans snapping up imported goods at a faster pace, while overseas purchases of U.S. products lag well behind. The level of imports is now 5% higher than a year ago, with imported oil and industrial supplies the biggest commodities. FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET Today with several Fed speakers taking the podium throughout the day as well.
Market Commentary [4.06.21]
Stocks edged lower following a three-day rally as the S&P 500 and DJIA closed at record highs on Monday. The S&P 500 ticked 0.2% lower, led by technology and the DJIA dropped 0.2% after reaching a new peak for the 18th time this year. Investors have bought stocks in record numbers during the first quarter in 2021 in part due to government stimulus and anticipation of economic recovery which has led shares to reach new highs as sentiment increases that vaccination efforts will overcome concerns of higher bond yields impacting the rally. The Cboe Volatility Index edged down to 17.8 its lowest level since February 2020.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.693%. Today’s releases will include IMF’s World Economic Outlook and IMF’s Global Financial Stability report as well as U.S. job openings. It will be interesting to see the global impact and potential recovery from the pandemic and resulting shutdown. The U.S. seems to be on a short term path to recovery with improved jobs numbers in recent weeks and a bit of inflation for added growth. Treasury yields have been marching higher since August, but have picked up steam since the beginning of January. The 10 Year Treasury saw a low near 0.51% on the yield in August, but rallied to 1.00% in early January and then spiked to recent levels near 1.75% over the past two months.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.693%. Today’s releases will include IMF’s World Economic Outlook and IMF’s Global Financial Stability report as well as U.S. job openings. It will be interesting to see the global impact and potential recovery from the pandemic and resulting shutdown. The U.S. seems to be on a short term path to recovery with improved jobs numbers in recent weeks and a bit of inflation for added growth. Treasury yields have been marching higher since August, but have picked up steam since the beginning of January. The 10 Year Treasury saw a low near 0.51% on the yield in August, but rallied to 1.00% in early January and then spiked to recent levels near 1.75% over the past two months.
Market Commentary [4.05.21]
Stocks opened higher on better than expected jobs reports as investors anticipate new data from the Institute for Supply Management's services index later this morning. The U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March vs 675,000 estimated adds. The unemployment rate has now fallen to 6%, down from 6.2% in February. Overall the U.S. has regained 13.7 million jobs, which equates to 62% of the 22.2 million jobs lost in the pandemic. Vaccination efforts are said to have contributed to companies step up in hiring. Leisure and hospitality still show the strongest gains with 280,000 new jobs, however even with the continued gains, the sector remains 3.1 million below its pre-pandemic level.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat at the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.727%. Factory orders and Manufacturing data will be released later this morning. Manufacturing lagged through the shutdown but rebounded with re-openings and higher demand for raw materials as consumers have come out of quarantine. Mortgage rates continue to creep higher with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 Year Fixed is 3.18% and the average 15 Year Fixed is 2.45% according to Freddie Mac’s 4/1/21 Rate Survey. Rates have been on an upward run since early February, with the average surveyed rates rising almost 50 bps over that time frame.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat at the market open. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.727%. Factory orders and Manufacturing data will be released later this morning. Manufacturing lagged through the shutdown but rebounded with re-openings and higher demand for raw materials as consumers have come out of quarantine. Mortgage rates continue to creep higher with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 Year Fixed is 3.18% and the average 15 Year Fixed is 2.45% according to Freddie Mac’s 4/1/21 Rate Survey. Rates have been on an upward run since early February, with the average surveyed rates rising almost 50 bps over that time frame.
Market Commentary [4.01.21]
Stocks opened higher following the S&P 500 closing out a fourth consecutive quarterly advance, reaching above 4,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq rose over 1.5% as tech shares improve ahead of fresh economic data starting in the second quarter. Investor sentiment has improved recently with the prospect of economic growth along with widespread vaccinations and new spending programs from the Biden administration though concern still looms over rising bond yields and new lockdowns in Europe and Canada. Oil prices wavered after an OPEC meeting in which analysts expect significant output cuts to continue to bolster the market after a recent slide in prices.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields move near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.707%. The 10-year yield has risen quickly in recent months, up from less than 1% at the start of the year, amid concerns about inflation. The Fed has announced that it will let inflation run hotter as long as it helps achieve full employment. Ultimately, debt will seek its equilibrium level and some are starting to believe that with this degree of fiscal stimulus in place, equilibrium interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now. Initial jobless claims fell to 675,000 last week vs a forecasted 684,000. 3.75 million remain on continuing claims. The jobs market has been stubborn with mixed re-openings across the states leaving some in service sectors jobless longer, but as more have become vaccinated and looser restrictions have become more common, jobs are rebounding. It will still take some time though to reach pre-pandemic levels of 200,000 jobless claims per week.
Bond pricing is slightly worse as treasury yields move near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.707%. The 10-year yield has risen quickly in recent months, up from less than 1% at the start of the year, amid concerns about inflation. The Fed has announced that it will let inflation run hotter as long as it helps achieve full employment. Ultimately, debt will seek its equilibrium level and some are starting to believe that with this degree of fiscal stimulus in place, equilibrium interest rates are likely going to be higher than they are now. Initial jobless claims fell to 675,000 last week vs a forecasted 684,000. 3.75 million remain on continuing claims. The jobs market has been stubborn with mixed re-openings across the states leaving some in service sectors jobless longer, but as more have become vaccinated and looser restrictions have become more common, jobs are rebounding. It will still take some time though to reach pre-pandemic levels of 200,000 jobless claims per week.
Market Commentary [3.31.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors anticipate details of President Biden’s $2.25 trillion spending program. The S&P 500 ticked up 0.2% and the Nasdaq opened 0.6% higher following a day of losses for giant tech companies. President Biden’s multitrillion dollar program, targeted at infrastructure, green energy, manufacturing and housing has money managers speculating the impact on taxpayers to fund the initiative. The President has indicated that raising tax rates of the highest earning citizens as well as corporations would be a portion of the funding for the program.
Bond pricing remains relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hover near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.723%. ADP data for March showed a gain of 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and a good jump above the 176,000 jobs added in February. Job growth in the service sector continues to outpace monthly averages, as the economy recovers, this was the hardest hit sector which is now poised for explosive growth to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales will also be released at 10a.m. ET for another view into what has been one of the strongest industries throughout the pandemic as consumers have shifted to school and work from home and have gained additional space through home purchases. Economist are forecasting a drop of 3.1% in Pending Sales as limited inventory continues to hold back eligible buyers.
Bond pricing remains relatively flat this morning as treasury yields hover near recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.723%. ADP data for March showed a gain of 517,000 jobs, well above expectations and a good jump above the 176,000 jobs added in February. Job growth in the service sector continues to outpace monthly averages, as the economy recovers, this was the hardest hit sector which is now poised for explosive growth to meet consumer demand. Pending home sales will also be released at 10a.m. ET for another view into what has been one of the strongest industries throughout the pandemic as consumers have shifted to school and work from home and have gained additional space through home purchases. Economist are forecasting a drop of 3.1% in Pending Sales as limited inventory continues to hold back eligible buyers.
Market Commentary [3.30.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors continue to exit government bonds in anticipation of a brightening economic outlook as well as concerns of higher inflation. The S&P 500 ticked 0.3% lower while the Nasdaq opened 0.6% lower as investors move away from richly valued tech to stocks positioned to benefit the most from economic recovery such as energy, financials and travel. Investors are still closely following the fallout from Archegos Capital Management’s liquidation of over $30 billion in stocks as banks handling its trading were prompted to unwind positions, warning that they too may still be set to incur losses.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.753%, taking out a January 2020 high earlier in trading. Covid vaccine rollouts and planned infrastructure spending are boosting hopes of a broad U.S. economic recovery. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 11.2% over the past year ending in January. Home price growth has now accelerated to a 15-year high as supply continues to remain near all time lows. In January, there were 1.03 million homes for sale, the lowest level in data going back to 1982, according to the NAR.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.753%, taking out a January 2020 high earlier in trading. Covid vaccine rollouts and planned infrastructure spending are boosting hopes of a broad U.S. economic recovery. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index rose 11.2% over the past year ending in January. Home price growth has now accelerated to a 15-year high as supply continues to remain near all time lows. In January, there were 1.03 million homes for sale, the lowest level in data going back to 1982, according to the NAR.
Market Commentary [3.29.21]
Stocks opened lower following a $30 billion sell off in block trades on Friday, leading to concern that global banks involved could face sharp losses. The block trades by Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley were initiated after capital management company, Archegos failed to meet margin calls. ViacomCBS and Discovery were two companies involved in the massive sell off, each dropping over 25% last week with ViacomCBS losing an additional 2% in early trading. Investors will now look to reassess their positions in anticipation of further precipitous declines of stocks that have rallied steeply this year.
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on light economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.666%. Mortgage rates have continued to rise with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 YR fixed was 3.17%, up from 3.09% and the average 15 YR Fixed was 2.45% up from 2.40% according to Freddie Mac’s March 25th rate survey. The recent rise in rates has slowed refinance activity, with applications dropping to its slowest pace since September of 2020. Still purchase activity remains strong against limited housing inventory, which is putting further upward pressure on home prices
Bond pricing is slightly improved this morning as treasury yields inch lower on light economic news. The U.S. 10 Year Treasury yield is currently 1.666%. Mortgage rates have continued to rise with the recent rise in treasury yields. The average 30 YR fixed was 3.17%, up from 3.09% and the average 15 YR Fixed was 2.45% up from 2.40% according to Freddie Mac’s March 25th rate survey. The recent rise in rates has slowed refinance activity, with applications dropping to its slowest pace since September of 2020. Still purchase activity remains strong against limited housing inventory, which is putting further upward pressure on home prices
Market Commentary [3.26.21]
Stocks opened higher on optimism of vaccine rollouts following the Fed announcing that temporary limits on dividend payments and share buybacks will end for most banks after June. The S&P 500 was up nearly 0.5% led by financials, snapping a two-day losing streak on Thursday while the Nasdaq edged up 0.1% in early trading. Investors continue to monitor the container ship blocking the Suez Canal as officials warn that the traffic of crude oil and petroleum products through the channel could take days to weeks to resume.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields regain higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.658%. U.S. consumer spending fell more than expected in February, dropping 1.0% after a healthy rebound in January of 3.4%. Personal income also tumbled 7.1% after surging 10.1% in January. Despite these moves, core inflation moved upward 0.1% as expected, slightly down from January’s release of 0.2%.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields regain higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.658%. U.S. consumer spending fell more than expected in February, dropping 1.0% after a healthy rebound in January of 3.4%. Personal income also tumbled 7.1% after surging 10.1% in January. Despite these moves, core inflation moved upward 0.1% as expected, slightly down from January’s release of 0.2%.
Market Commentary [3.25.21]
Stocks opened lower and are on track for a third day of losses despite stronger than expected data in the labor market. The S&P 500 dropped 0.5% led by energy and industrials while the tech heavy Nasdaq fell by nearly 1%. Investors are monitoring the surge in demand for products spurred by government relief spending and vaccine rollouts as supply chain constraints increase due to extensions of Covid-19 lockdowns. Focus will turn to the U.S. Treasury auction of 7 year notes today as poor demand during last month’s sale helped lead to a global selloff in government debt and interest-rate sensitive stocks.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. Another 684,000 filed for unemployment last week, less than the expected 730,000. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 3.87 million vs. 4 million expected. Even though claims have come down considerably from the highs, they remain elevated from 2019 levels, when just over 200,000 claims were seen per week. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, claims peaked at 665,000. GDP also saw positive growth, with growth in the 4th quarter at 4.3% on an annual pace. Another sign that the economy appears to be in recovery after the coronavirus outbreak
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.596%. Another 684,000 filed for unemployment last week, less than the expected 730,000. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 3.87 million vs. 4 million expected. Even though claims have come down considerably from the highs, they remain elevated from 2019 levels, when just over 200,000 claims were seen per week. Even during the Global Financial Crisis, claims peaked at 665,000. GDP also saw positive growth, with growth in the 4th quarter at 4.3% on an annual pace. Another sign that the economy appears to be in recovery after the coronavirus outbreak
Market Commentary [3.24.21]
Stocks edged higher as investors continue to monitor rising Covid-19 cases in Europe as the House of Financial Services committee prepares for a second day of testimony. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% in early trading led by energy, financials and industrials while the Nasdaq was relatively flat as tech shares attempt to recover ground following significant losses in recent weeks. The flare up in the pandemic in Europe has led to anticipation of the EU drafting emergency legislation that would allow it to control exports of Covid-19 vaccines. In Asia, benchmarks in Hong Kong and Japan both fell by more than 2% by close of trading, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index entered correction territory after dropping more than 10% from a peak in February.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR treasury yield is currently 1.64%. New orders for U.S. made capital goods fell unexpectedly in February, pointing toward some cooling down in business spending on equipment after recent strong growth. Overall durable goods fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.8% increase. The results were a stark contrast to January’s 3.4% increase as well. Several Fed speakers take the podium Today along with Powel and Yellen testifying before Congress on economic activity.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR treasury yield is currently 1.64%. New orders for U.S. made capital goods fell unexpectedly in February, pointing toward some cooling down in business spending on equipment after recent strong growth. Overall durable goods fell by 1.1% against expectations of a 0.8% increase. The results were a stark contrast to January’s 3.4% increase as well. Several Fed speakers take the podium Today along with Powel and Yellen testifying before Congress on economic activity.
Market Commentary [3.23.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors prepare for the first joint appearance of Treasury Secretary Yellen and Fed Chairman Powell at the U.S. House Financial Services committee over the next two days. Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank’s stance on continuing to provide support to the economy through loose monetary policy. The speed of the recovery and possibility of increasing inflation paired with rising Covid-19 cases in Europe have left investors skeptical about plans for interest rates and bond purchases. The Stoxx Europe 600 edged lower as France and Italy extended coronavirus restrictions and Germany imposed another four week lockdown.
Bond Pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. In released remarks, Powell said that the economy progressed more quickly than expected and looks to be strengthening, however, hard hit sectors still “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall” so the recovery still has a ways to go. Existing home sales plunged 6.6% last month to 6.22 million units. Economists are expecting a slight rebound to 6.5 million units with this morning’s release scheduled for 10 a.m. ET.
Bond Pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.656%. In released remarks, Powell said that the economy progressed more quickly than expected and looks to be strengthening, however, hard hit sectors still “remain weak” and the unemployment rate “underestimates the shortfall” so the recovery still has a ways to go. Existing home sales plunged 6.6% last month to 6.22 million units. Economists are expecting a slight rebound to 6.5 million units with this morning’s release scheduled for 10 a.m. ET.
Market Commentary [3.22.21]
Stocks edged higher, led by technology shares as Treasury yields drop slightly following a volatile week. The S&P 500 ticked up in early trading while the Nasdaq rose over 0.5% indicating that tech stocks may push higher early in the week. Shares of AstraZeneca rose 2% after announcing that its Covid-19 vaccine was safe and 79% effective in preventing symptomatic disease in U.S. clinical trials. Turkey’s lira declined 9% after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved to replace the country’s third central bank chief in less than two years.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding near recent highs this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. The empire state index, a measure of business activity in New York, jumped to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, signaling economic growth in a state that has been hampered by shutdowns. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in business activity in New York since November of 2018. New orders and shipments were all up substantially, with businesses reporting optimistic conditions in the next six months given demand and inventory levels. This week is full of economic data with retail sales Tomorrow, building permits and housing starts Wednesday and initial jobless claims Thursday.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are holding near recent highs this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. The empire state index, a measure of business activity in New York, jumped to 17.4 in March from 12.1 in February, signaling economic growth in a state that has been hampered by shutdowns. The reading pointed to the strongest growth in business activity in New York since November of 2018. New orders and shipments were all up substantially, with businesses reporting optimistic conditions in the next six months given demand and inventory levels. This week is full of economic data with retail sales Tomorrow, building permits and housing starts Wednesday and initial jobless claims Thursday.
Market Commentary [3.19.21]
Stocks edged lower as investors evaluate news that the Fed will not extend bank regulatory relief, utilized to relax capital levels during the pandemic. The S&P 500 ticked lower in early trading after closing 1.5% lower on Thursday. Concerns of inflation rising along with the recovering economy led to a sharp selloff in government bonds on Thursday as investors looked to exit tech and other high growth stocks. FedEx rose over 5% after announcing its quarterly profit nearly tripled and revenue jumped 23% despite the disruption of winter storms
Bond pricing is retaking a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch slightly lower. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. Comments Thursday from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the central bank would allow inflation to run hotter, expecting core inflation to hit 2.2% in 2021, but around 2% in the long run. He also alluded that if it helped improve the employment picture in the U.S. they may let inflation run higher. All this put upward pressure on treasury yields Thursday, but with little to no economic news Today, yields are inching lower. Mortgage rates have moved higher according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey. The average 30 YR Fixed is now at 3.09%, up from the lows seen in early January of 2.65%. The average 15 YR Fixed is now at 2.4%, off the lows of 2.14% seen in early January. Treasury yields have consistently marched higher since then, pressuring mortgage rates higher in the process.
Bond pricing is retaking a little ground this morning as treasury yields inch slightly lower. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.696%. Comments Thursday from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the central bank would allow inflation to run hotter, expecting core inflation to hit 2.2% in 2021, but around 2% in the long run. He also alluded that if it helped improve the employment picture in the U.S. they may let inflation run higher. All this put upward pressure on treasury yields Thursday, but with little to no economic news Today, yields are inching lower. Mortgage rates have moved higher according to Freddie Mac’s rate survey. The average 30 YR Fixed is now at 3.09%, up from the lows seen in early January of 2.65%. The average 15 YR Fixed is now at 2.4%, off the lows of 2.14% seen in early January. Treasury yields have consistently marched higher since then, pressuring mortgage rates higher in the process.
Market Commentary [3.18.21]
Stocks opened lower following investors selling government bonds and technology shares. The S&P 500 dropped 0.7% after hitting an all-time high on Wednesday while the Nasdaq fell over 1.3% following closing above 33,000 for the first time. Expectations of inflation have led investors to continue selling 10-year notes with the anticipation that inflation would increase along with the recovering economy, reducing the value of returns from fixed-income investments. On Wednesday, Fed officials revealed that they expect the economy to recover more quickly than they did months ago but have maintained that interest rates will remain ultralow through 2023.
Bond pricing continues to lose ground as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.742%, a high not seen since January of last year. Initial jobless claims printed another 770,000 new unemployment claims for this past week. Continuing claims flattened from 4.144 million to 4.124 million week over week. The new claims were a bit of a surprise, surpassing expectations by 45,000 or more. Still, there is a slight downward trend in new claims over the past several months. More improvement is also expected with vaccination rates increasing and restrictions being lifted.
Bond pricing continues to lose ground as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.742%, a high not seen since January of last year. Initial jobless claims printed another 770,000 new unemployment claims for this past week. Continuing claims flattened from 4.144 million to 4.124 million week over week. The new claims were a bit of a surprise, surpassing expectations by 45,000 or more. Still, there is a slight downward trend in new claims over the past several months. More improvement is also expected with vaccination rates increasing and restrictions being lifted.
Market Commentary [3.17.21]
Stocks opened lower as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s next economic outlook and indications on interest rates and bond purchases. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% and the Nasdaq dropped over 1%, led by technology shares. The Fed is scheduled to release its latest economic projections at 2 pm ET followed by a press conference in which Chairman Powell is expected to address the faster than expected rebound in the labor market and inflation.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields continue finding higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Residential housing starts fell 10.3% in February to an annualized rate of 1.421 million as harsh weather kept buyers on the sidelines. In addition to weather, lumber prices have surged 59% over the past year, more than any 12 month period since 1947. Housing also saw the largest monthly decline in permits since April at 10.8%. With supply of existing homes at all-time lows, and rates still near historic lows, builders still feel optimistic in the short run.
Bond pricing is losing ground this morning as treasury yields continue finding higher ground. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.664%. Residential housing starts fell 10.3% in February to an annualized rate of 1.421 million as harsh weather kept buyers on the sidelines. In addition to weather, lumber prices have surged 59% over the past year, more than any 12 month period since 1947. Housing also saw the largest monthly decline in permits since April at 10.8%. With supply of existing homes at all-time lows, and rates still near historic lows, builders still feel optimistic in the short run.
Market Commentary [3.16.21]
Stocks opened mixed as tech shares show signs of steadying following the surge in bond yields from late February and early March. The S&P 500 was relatively flat and the DJIA edged up 0.2% after both indexes closed at record highs on Monday, while the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 0.8% in early trading. Money managers will turn to the two-day Fed policy meeting concluding on Wednesday for insights on the Fed’s stance regarding concerns of growth and inflation and if the central bank will consider increasing interest rates earlier than expected.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat again this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.60%. Retail sales dropped by a seasonally adjusted 3.0% last month amid extreme cold weather across the country leaving many without power. Despite the setback, economists are expecting a rebound as another round of pandemic relief money arrives for lower and middle income households. It’s also expected that the pace of vaccinations, which should allow for broader economic engagement, will continue to create further rebound in the coming months. Its estimated that households have also accumulated $1.8 trillion in excess savings.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat again this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.60%. Retail sales dropped by a seasonally adjusted 3.0% last month amid extreme cold weather across the country leaving many without power. Despite the setback, economists are expecting a rebound as another round of pandemic relief money arrives for lower and middle income households. It’s also expected that the pace of vaccinations, which should allow for broader economic engagement, will continue to create further rebound in the coming months. Its estimated that households have also accumulated $1.8 trillion in excess savings.
Market Commentary [3.15.21]
Stocks opened mixed following record closes for the S&P 500 and DJIA last week. The S&P 500 edged higher in early trading, led by utilities and consumer staples, while the DJIA was up 0.4% suggesting that blue-chip shares sensitive to the economic recovery may extend gains. Sentiment among investors remains focused on rising long-term borrowing costs and potential for reflation trades as rotation continues from growth to value shares. Over the weekend, bitcoin surpassed $60,000 for the first time before falling back to $56,000 territory this morning.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. There is little economic news Today, but this week is filled with retail sales, building permits and housing starts and initial jobless claims just to name a few. These indicators will be closely watched as investors have been a bit skiddish around inflation building too fast as the economy attempts to recover. Treasury yields have tested new highs in recent weeks, pushing mortgage rates higher as well. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR fixed rate was 3.05%, up more than a quarter of a percent since mid-February. The average 15 YR fixed is currently 2.38%, up more than an eighth of a percent since mid-February.
Bond pricing and treasury yields remain relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. There is little economic news Today, but this week is filled with retail sales, building permits and housing starts and initial jobless claims just to name a few. These indicators will be closely watched as investors have been a bit skiddish around inflation building too fast as the economy attempts to recover. Treasury yields have tested new highs in recent weeks, pushing mortgage rates higher as well. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR fixed rate was 3.05%, up more than a quarter of a percent since mid-February. The average 15 YR fixed is currently 2.38%, up more than an eighth of a percent since mid-February.
Market Commentary [3.12.21]
Stocks opened mixed with technology shares declining as a fresh bout of bond volatility hit markets. The S&P 500 edged lower following a record close on Thursday while the tech heavy Nasdaq slipped over 1.3%. The acceleration of vaccinations along with the passage of the $1.9 trillion relief bill sent Treasury yields surging. Investors are again considering the prospect of excessive inflation after a relatively smooth week of bond sales and will turn to the Federal Reserve next week. Bitcoin climbed to a record high in overnight trading, topping $58,700 but has since pulled back nearly 5% to $55,900.
Bond pricing slid further this morning as treasury yields march back to recent highs. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. The 10 YR Treasury yield has risen rapidly over the past month or more, shooting up from 1% since the end of January. Concerns of inflation are compounded by fears that the recent stimulus, alongside reopening of the economy, could stimulate things too quickly and cause a surge in prices. Fueling those concerns this morning, the producer price index showed a year-over-year gain of 2.8%, the largest since October of 2018. Higher prices for energy and gas, which saw an increase of 13.1% led the increase in pricing. The Fed feels that price gains are likely temporary, but we should know more by summer time.
Bond pricing slid further this morning as treasury yields march back to recent highs. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.614%. The 10 YR Treasury yield has risen rapidly over the past month or more, shooting up from 1% since the end of January. Concerns of inflation are compounded by fears that the recent stimulus, alongside reopening of the economy, could stimulate things too quickly and cause a surge in prices. Fueling those concerns this morning, the producer price index showed a year-over-year gain of 2.8%, the largest since October of 2018. Higher prices for energy and gas, which saw an increase of 13.1% led the increase in pricing. The Fed feels that price gains are likely temporary, but we should know more by summer time.
Market Commentary [3.11.21]
Stocks were up in early trading, fueled by a return to technology shares. The Nasdaq jumped over 1.5% as appetite for tech improved as Treasury yields indicate signs of stabilizing. The $1.9 trillion Covid-relief bill cleared its final congressional hurdle on Wednesday and will be signed by President Biden on Friday. The Treasury will test investor appetite for government debt again today during an auction of $24 billion in 30-year bonds following the sale of $58 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday and $38 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday.
Bond pricing is regaining ground this morning as treasury yields fall slightly. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.516%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 709,000 last week, fueling optimism for economic rebound. The Labor Department reported that employers added 379,000 jobs in February, largely in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality industries. All this brings confidence as vaccination rates increase, the weather improves and the new stimulus reaches those in need. Contiuing claims declined by 193,000 to 4.14 million.
Bond pricing is regaining ground this morning as treasury yields fall slightly. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.516%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 709,000 last week, fueling optimism for economic rebound. The Labor Department reported that employers added 379,000 jobs in February, largely in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality industries. All this brings confidence as vaccination rates increase, the weather improves and the new stimulus reaches those in need. Contiuing claims declined by 193,000 to 4.14 million.
Market Commentary [3.10.21]
Stocks opened higher as U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in February, abating some concerns of inflation. The Nasdaq led the three indexes, gaining over 1.2% in early trading following one of the tech sector’s best days in months. The U.S. government will auction a batch of notes this afternoon, testing investor appetite for new Treasury debt. Federal Reserve officials remain firm that they would allow inflation to exceed 2% for a spell before tightening policy, which may take time if inflation continues to be capped by relatively weak demand in several sectors.
Bond pricing tapers further as treasury yields continue to regain higher ground this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Many stock traders are re-focusing on treasury yields as the primary issue for the stock market. Today’s 10 YR Treasury auction will shed additional light on the matter as we get a better look at demand. Rapid increases in yield like we recently experienced in February cause concern for some stocks as a factor of interest rates and potential inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4%, to 1.7% in February. The cost of gasoline rose further, leading to the biggest annual gain in a year. Gasoline prices increased 6.4% in February on top of an increase of 7.4% in January. Even though the index rose overall, underlying inflation appears to remain tepid amid sluggish demand for service related items which is made up of airline travel and other sectors.
Bond pricing tapers further as treasury yields continue to regain higher ground this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.54%. Many stock traders are re-focusing on treasury yields as the primary issue for the stock market. Today’s 10 YR Treasury auction will shed additional light on the matter as we get a better look at demand. Rapid increases in yield like we recently experienced in February cause concern for some stocks as a factor of interest rates and potential inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4%, to 1.7% in February. The cost of gasoline rose further, leading to the biggest annual gain in a year. Gasoline prices increased 6.4% in February on top of an increase of 7.4% in January. Even though the index rose overall, underlying inflation appears to remain tepid amid sluggish demand for service related items which is made up of airline travel and other sectors.
Market Commentary [3.9.21]
Stocks opened higher as beaten-down tech stocks led gains fueled by dip buyers in early trading. The S&P 500 gained over 1% after the opening bell while the Nasdaq jumped more than 2.5% following a recent decline of greater than 10% that put the index into correction territory on Monday. Investors will closely monitor Treasury sales as the U.S. plans three debt auctions totaling $120 billion in the coming days. In Washington, the House is expected to narrowly pass the latest version of the $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package by today or Wednesday for the second time following revisions by the Senate.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.537%. Optimism among small businesses rose slightly in February as the job market tightened and earnings improved. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 95.8 in February up 0.8 points from January but still below the average reading of 98. The index fell short of economists expectations, slightly due to inclement weather that spread across the mid-west via snow storms. Of all owners surveyed, 24% selected the quality of labor as their top business problem, followed by taxes and government regulation.
Bond pricing is slightly worse this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.537%. Optimism among small businesses rose slightly in February as the job market tightened and earnings improved. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 95.8 in February up 0.8 points from January but still below the average reading of 98. The index fell short of economists expectations, slightly due to inclement weather that spread across the mid-west via snow storms. Of all owners surveyed, 24% selected the quality of labor as their top business problem, followed by taxes and government regulation.
Market Commentary [3.8.21]
Stocks opened mixed with tech stocks lagging and investors moving to companies in sectors more closely tied to the business cycle and likely to rebound with the economy. President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan was approved in the Senate over the weekend and could be voted on by the House as early as Tuesday. Concern still looms over whether equity valuations have become too excessive, particularly in speculative tech shares as the Nasdaq dropped nearly 8% since the beginning of February. China’s CSI 300 entered a correction on Monday due to concerns of liquidity conditions and high valuations in recently favored stocks, just 13 days after the gauge closed at its highest level since 2007.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR Fixed rate moved upward last week from 2.97% to 3.02% as of 3/4/21. The average 15 YR Fixed remained flat at 2.34%. Recent treasury movement has put upward pressure on mortgage rates. This week is relatively light for economic news, however there are a few potential market movers with CPI Wednesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Senators have passed the new stimulus bill through budget reconciliation. The bill now moves to the House which aims to pass the bill Tuesday in an effort to sign before a March 14 deadline in order to renew unemployment aid programs.
Bond pricing has faded this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.582%. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30 YR Fixed rate moved upward last week from 2.97% to 3.02% as of 3/4/21. The average 15 YR Fixed remained flat at 2.34%. Recent treasury movement has put upward pressure on mortgage rates. This week is relatively light for economic news, however there are a few potential market movers with CPI Wednesday and initial jobless claims on Thursday. Senators have passed the new stimulus bill through budget reconciliation. The bill now moves to the House which aims to pass the bill Tuesday in an effort to sign before a March 14 deadline in order to renew unemployment aid programs.
Market Commentary [3.5.21]
Stocks opened higher on a stronger than expected jobs report. The three indexes ticked up in early trading led by the S&P 500 opening 1.1% higher following a drop to its lowest level since the end of January on Thursday. The Nasdaq opened 1% higher after ending Thursday 9.7% lower from its February 12 high, putting the barometer for the technology sector just short of correction territory. During the WSJ Jobs Summit, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated his intention to keep easy-money policies in place and indicated no sign that the central bank will look to address the recent rise in Treasury yields.
Bond pricing retreated rapidly as treasury yields break support and make new highs this morning. The 10 YR Treasury yields is currently 1.60%. U.S. employers added 379,000 jobs last month, causing a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 6.2%. The pace of the labor market’s recovery remains hampered by the ongoing pandemic. As businesses re-open, leisure and hospitality continue to add new jobs at the highest rate. Those areas saw the greatest job loss over the course as well. With vaccine rollout accelerating across the country and falling case counts, there is some optimism going froward. Some are expecting recent hiring to translate into a bigger move in March.
Bond pricing retreated rapidly as treasury yields break support and make new highs this morning. The 10 YR Treasury yields is currently 1.60%. U.S. employers added 379,000 jobs last month, causing a slight dip in the unemployment rate to 6.2%. The pace of the labor market’s recovery remains hampered by the ongoing pandemic. As businesses re-open, leisure and hospitality continue to add new jobs at the highest rate. Those areas saw the greatest job loss over the course as well. With vaccine rollout accelerating across the country and falling case counts, there is some optimism going froward. Some are expecting recent hiring to translate into a bigger move in March.
Market Commentary [3.4.21]
Stocks opened higher following a two-day decline as investors await Fed Chairman Powell’s appearance at the Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit to gauge the central bank’s perception of the recent rise in Treasury yields. The three indexed edged up in early trading with energy, retail and finance leading gains. To this point, central bank officials have continued their stance that the recent rise in bond yields signals that investors are optimistic about the economic recovery. Brent crude futures rose to $64.29 a barrel as Saudi Arabia and Russia are in talks to propose a combined one million barrels a day of oil production to global markets in a meeting of the world’s largest producers today.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.477%. Initial jobless claims came in close to expectations at 745,000. Continuing claims also dipped slightly from 4.419 million to 4.295 million. Jobless claims still remain multiples above levels from before the Covid pandemic, when new claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week. Returning to those levels will heavily depend on consumers return to service centric activities most deeply affected by stay in place orders, along with the pace of business reopenings. Tomorrow’s Unemployment report will shed additional light on the jobs market amidst potential recovery.
Bond pricing and treasury yields are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.477%. Initial jobless claims came in close to expectations at 745,000. Continuing claims also dipped slightly from 4.419 million to 4.295 million. Jobless claims still remain multiples above levels from before the Covid pandemic, when new claims were averaging just over 200,000 per week. Returning to those levels will heavily depend on consumers return to service centric activities most deeply affected by stay in place orders, along with the pace of business reopenings. Tomorrow’s Unemployment report will shed additional light on the jobs market amidst potential recovery.
Market Commentary [3.3.21]
Stocks opened mixed following a jump in Treasury yields as concern looms over stretched valuations. The three indexes were little changed in early trading with the DJIA leading at a 0.2% improvement. Investors are growing increasingly concerned that stimulus measures could lead to a surge in inflation, limiting the value of bond returns as speculation picks up on the Federal Reserve’s inclination to address interest rates moving forward. Focus will turn to the release of the Fed’s beige book report at 2 pm ET, as investors look for insights on the reopening of the economy and how companies are preparing.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.457%. Private sector employment increased by 117,000 jobs according to the ADP National Employment Report for February. Service jobs are leading the comeback with roughly 131,000 new jobs over the period, while construction and other good-producing jobs lost ground. Medium sized business hired at a faster pace compared to small and large businesses which hired at roughly the same pace. There are several more Federal Reserve speakers Today between 10am and 2 pm ET. Investors may pause here as they will undoubtedly be looking toward initial jobless claims released Tomorrow followed by Unemployment being released Friday.
Bond pricing is fading this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.457%. Private sector employment increased by 117,000 jobs according to the ADP National Employment Report for February. Service jobs are leading the comeback with roughly 131,000 new jobs over the period, while construction and other good-producing jobs lost ground. Medium sized business hired at a faster pace compared to small and large businesses which hired at roughly the same pace. There are several more Federal Reserve speakers Today between 10am and 2 pm ET. Investors may pause here as they will undoubtedly be looking toward initial jobless claims released Tomorrow followed by Unemployment being released Friday.
Market Commentary [3.1.21]
Stocks climbed following a volatile week as a decline in yields helped improve investor appetite. The three major indexes each rose over 1%, led by the Nasdaq advancing 1.6% after a rough week for technology companies. Shares of Johnson & Johnson rose 1.5% following authorization from the CDC to on Sunday, the single dose shot was also authorized by the FDA on Saturday. In Washington, the House passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package which is now en route to the Senate as certain types of federal unemployment assistance are set to expire on March 14.
Bond pricing regains ground as treasury yields find footing below recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.45%. Recent treasury movement pushed rates higher according to Freddie Mac’s Rate survey. The average 30 YR fixed was 2.97% while the average 15 YR fixed was 2.34% as of 2/25/2021. Both saw sharp increases from the prior survey from 2.81% and 2.21% respectively. This week will give investors more insight into the jobs market with more initial jobless claims data Thursday followed by the monthly Unemployment Rate release on Friday
Bond pricing regains ground as treasury yields find footing below recent highs. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.45%. Recent treasury movement pushed rates higher according to Freddie Mac’s Rate survey. The average 30 YR fixed was 2.97% while the average 15 YR fixed was 2.34% as of 2/25/2021. Both saw sharp increases from the prior survey from 2.81% and 2.21% respectively. This week will give investors more insight into the jobs market with more initial jobless claims data Thursday followed by the monthly Unemployment Rate release on Friday
Market Commentary [2.26.21]
Stocks opened mixed as tech stocks posted a modest rebound following a sharp selloff earlier in the week. The S&P 500 edged higher in early trading after closing nearly 2% lower for the week on Thursday and is on pace for its worst week in a month. The concern that accelerating inflation could trigger a pullback in monetary policy has increased amongst investors despite officials continuing their stance that the central bank has no plans to increase interest rates and that higher Treasury yields reflect optimism on the outlook for growth.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.467%, after surging upward to 1.6% in the prior session, charting highs not seen since February of last year. Yesterday’s move unnerved investors and put pressure on stock markets, with the Nasdaq having its worst on-day loss since October. U.S. consumer spending rebounded strongly in January as additional pandemic relief was discussed and new COVID infections dropped. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Overall, spending jumped 2.4% last month after decreasing 0.4% in December. Personal income also shot up by 10% last month as businesses are starting to have more positive outlook on recovery.
Bond pricing is improved this morning as treasury yields give up ground. The U.S. 10YR Treasury yield is currently 1.467%, after surging upward to 1.6% in the prior session, charting highs not seen since February of last year. Yesterday’s move unnerved investors and put pressure on stock markets, with the Nasdaq having its worst on-day loss since October. U.S. consumer spending rebounded strongly in January as additional pandemic relief was discussed and new COVID infections dropped. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Overall, spending jumped 2.4% last month after decreasing 0.4% in December. Personal income also shot up by 10% last month as businesses are starting to have more positive outlook on recovery.
Market Commentary [2.25.21]
Stocks edged lower amid concerns on the recent rise in bond yields as new data indicates a continued, slowly recovering economy. Investor appetite rebounded following Fed Chairman’s Powell’s consistent position that the central bank will keep interest rates low, leading the DJIA to a record high close. Optimism about the economic recovery has spurred the shift by investors to value stocks, opposed to growth stocks that powered much of last year’s rally, with the expectation that they stand to benefit the most from eased restrictions. Moderna gained over 3% after announcing its plan to increase manufacturing capacity of Covid-19 vaccines.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.446%. Some bond traders are eyeing 1.47% as the top of a support range, past which 1.5% is the next level. This matches the yield on the S&P 500 which could give the stock market some concern. Weekly unemployment claims fell to 730,000 and continuing claims moved down to 4.419 million from 4.52 million. This is the first time in seven weeks claims have fallen below 800,000, but even with the drop, claims are still well above pre-pandemic levels of just over 200,000 a week. California and Ohio amongst many other states saw large drops in new claims.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields march higher. The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is currently 1.446%. Some bond traders are eyeing 1.47% as the top of a support range, past which 1.5% is the next level. This matches the yield on the S&P 500 which could give the stock market some concern. Weekly unemployment claims fell to 730,000 and continuing claims moved down to 4.419 million from 4.52 million. This is the first time in seven weeks claims have fallen below 800,000, but even with the drop, claims are still well above pre-pandemic levels of just over 200,000 a week. California and Ohio amongst many other states saw large drops in new claims.
Market Commentary [2.24.21]
Stocks edged lower as a rise in government bond yields accelerated the selloff of tech stocks that once led markets during the pandemic. The S&P 500 opened 0.2% lower with telecom companies leading declines while the technology heavy Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Investors are now looking toward companies poised to benefit from an end to lockdowns and movement restrictions, driven by improving growth prospects and rising inflation expectations that led to the surge in bond yields. On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated his stance to keeping easy monetary policies unchanged for the foreseeable future as investors await his second day of testimony to the Senate Banking Committee later this morning.
The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is up from yesterday at 1.411%. New U.S. home sales rose to a three month high in January, exceeding expectations as buyers took advantage of attractive mortgage rates. New single family home purchases increased by 4.3% to a 923,000 annualized pace, up from 885,000 the previous month. Builder backlogs remain elevated, indicating residential construction will stay firm in the coming month despite data from the MBA showing loan applications to purchase homes declined to a nine-month low.
The U.S. 10 YR Treasury yield is up from yesterday at 1.411%. New U.S. home sales rose to a three month high in January, exceeding expectations as buyers took advantage of attractive mortgage rates. New single family home purchases increased by 4.3% to a 923,000 annualized pace, up from 885,000 the previous month. Builder backlogs remain elevated, indicating residential construction will stay firm in the coming month despite data from the MBA showing loan applications to purchase homes declined to a nine-month low.
Market Commentary [2.22.21]
Stocks opened lower as treasury yields rose with anticipation for stronger growth and faster inflation as investors continue to monitor economic recovery from the pandemic. The Nasdaq led the three indexes in losses as technology shares were hit as higher yields reduced the appeal growth-focused stocks and their expensive pricing. Brent oil climbed over $63 a barrel and has been projected to reach $70 in the coming months. Bitcoin slumped more than 10% as prices pulled back following an all-time high.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields plot new heights. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.345%. With yields continuing to rise, Investors are signaling that there is growing market confidence of an economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic. The White House stated that it expects to finish sending out millions of doses of vaccine this week after a sweeping winter storm disrupted distribution logistics. Mortgage rates are under pressure as yields continue to move higher. Freddie Mac shows a slight increase in their rate survey from 2/18. The average 30-YR fixed rate was 2.81%, up from the last reading of 2.73%. The average 15-YR fixed rate was 2.21%, up from the last reading of 2.19%.
Bond pricing continues to fade as treasury yields plot new heights. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.345%. With yields continuing to rise, Investors are signaling that there is growing market confidence of an economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic. The White House stated that it expects to finish sending out millions of doses of vaccine this week after a sweeping winter storm disrupted distribution logistics. Mortgage rates are under pressure as yields continue to move higher. Freddie Mac shows a slight increase in their rate survey from 2/18. The average 30-YR fixed rate was 2.81%, up from the last reading of 2.73%. The average 15-YR fixed rate was 2.21%, up from the last reading of 2.19%.
Market Commentary [2.19.21]
Stocks rebounded this morning after their longest losing streak since December. The S&P 500 opened slightly higher, led by industrial and financial sectors. Corporate earnings are now on the forefront of investor’s minds after the rise in Treasury yields dominated most discussions earlier this week. The fear is that increases in borrowing costs could send this rally and the economic recovery off-course.
Bond pricing continues to taper as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.319%, levels not seen since March of last year. Treasury Secretary Yellen still supports Biden’s additional stimulus. She stated she still has support for the package despite signs that momentum does appear to be building in the first two months of 2021 and investor’s fears of inflation could return.
Existing home sales is scheduled to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown from the previous number of 6.76 million units to 6.66 million units. The housing industry has remained strong throughout the pandemic, with reduced inventory and low rates, which have pushed prices higher.
Bond pricing continues to taper as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-YR Treasury yield is currently 1.319%, levels not seen since March of last year. Treasury Secretary Yellen still supports Biden’s additional stimulus. She stated she still has support for the package despite signs that momentum does appear to be building in the first two months of 2021 and investor’s fears of inflation could return.
Existing home sales is scheduled to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown from the previous number of 6.76 million units to 6.66 million units. The housing industry has remained strong throughout the pandemic, with reduced inventory and low rates, which have pushed prices higher.
Market Commentary [1.29.21]
Stocks opened lower amid concerns of volatility created by retail traders. The S&P 500 declined 0.6% following a 1% improvement the previous day while the DJIA slipped 0.7%. GameStop shares soared over 100% as brokerages announced they would ease trading restrictions imposed after wild swings this week after a 44% decline yesterday. Novavax climbed 60% after reporting its vaccine was 89% effective in a recent late-stage trial in the U.K. Bitcoin gained over 15% following a mention by Telsa CEO Elon Mush on social media.
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.10%. Personal income and consumer spending were both released this morning. Personal income rose by 0.6% in December after falling 1.3% in November. At the same time, personal spending dipped by 0.2% in December after falling 0.7% in November. The jobs market has weighed heavily on the statistics, with many Americans still looking for work.
Bond pricing is mixed this morning as treasury yields inch higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.10%. Personal income and consumer spending were both released this morning. Personal income rose by 0.6% in December after falling 1.3% in November. At the same time, personal spending dipped by 0.2% in December after falling 0.7% in November. The jobs market has weighed heavily on the statistics, with many Americans still looking for work.
Trading activity increased to $296 billion with $15 billion in Specified Pools.
Market Commentary [1.22.21]
Stocks opened lower amid global escalating coronavirus restrictions as countries battle vaccination issues and face additional lockdown protocols. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4% following Thursday’s record and the DJIA fell 0.5% after the opening bell. Sentiment has been positive in recent days, fueled by a solid start to earnings season as the majority of S&P 500 companies have reported results exceeding analysts’ expectations though there is concern that high valuations in parts of the market will leave stocks vulnerable moving forward. Italy announced a delay to its vaccination program due to a drop in deliveries from manufacturers while Germany expects their vaccine shortage to last up to the next eight weeks. The U.K. initiated its third lockdown that could last into the summer and China has reportedly unveiled new restrictive measures.
Bond pricing and treasuries are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.087%. Lawmakers are beginning to weigh in on Biden’s stimulus plan with some opposition from both sides of the aisle. Existing Home Sales is expected to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown to the number coming in at 6.55 million units. The real estate industry continues to be a shining star amongst a battered economy as demand continues to outweigh supply and rates remain very low. With many shifting work and school to their homes, more space is now a top priority for those that can afford to make a move.
Bond pricing and treasuries are relatively flat this morning. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.087%. Lawmakers are beginning to weigh in on Biden’s stimulus plan with some opposition from both sides of the aisle. Existing Home Sales is expected to be released at 10 am ET. Economists are expecting a slight slowdown to the number coming in at 6.55 million units. The real estate industry continues to be a shining star amongst a battered economy as demand continues to outweigh supply and rates remain very low. With many shifting work and school to their homes, more space is now a top priority for those that can afford to make a move.
Trading activity increased to $319 billion with $43 billion in Specified Pools.
Market Commentary [1.21.21]
Stocks edged higher as sentiment remains optimistic that additional fiscal spending will spur economic recovery. The Nasdaq climbed 0.5% and the S&P 500 extended its strong start in 2021 while in Europe, Stoxx 600 reached its highest level in 11 months. Investors are assessing President Biden’s nearly $2 trillion Covid-19 relief package and the prospects for it proceeding through Congress following his inauguration on Wednesday. In Bejing, China’s three largest telecommunications companies requested a review of their delisting from the NYSE and applied for the decision to be reversed.
Bond pricing continues to fade this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.113%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected at 900,000 vs 925,000. Continuing claims fell to 5.1 million total. Residential housing starts climbed 5.8% to a 1.67 million annualized rate in December. The full year saw 1.38 million starts, the highest since the mid-2000s. Applications to build increased 4.5% in December, also the highest since 2006. The pandemic has driven a surge in demand for larger properties with more space for families to work and learn at home as many continue a work/learn from home posture.
Bond pricing continues to fade this morning as treasury yields move higher. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is currently 1.113%. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected at 900,000 vs 925,000. Continuing claims fell to 5.1 million total. Residential housing starts climbed 5.8% to a 1.67 million annualized rate in December. The full year saw 1.38 million starts, the highest since the mid-2000s. Applications to build increased 4.5% in December, also the highest since 2006. The pandemic has driven a surge in demand for larger properties with more space for families to work and learn at home as many continue a work/learn from home posture.
Trading activity increased to $287 billion with $23 billion in Specified Pools.